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We developed a novel statistical model to relate the daily survival and migration dynamics of an endangered anadromous fish to river flow and water temperature during both extreme drought and severe flooding in an intensively managed river system. Our Bayesian temporally stratified multistate mark-recapture model integrates over unobserved travel times and route transitions to efficiently estimate covariate relationships and includes an adjustment for telemetry tag battery failure. We applied the model to acoustic-tagged juvenile Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and found that survival decreased with decreasing river flows and increased water temperatures. We found that fish were likely to enter a large floodplain during flood conditions and that survival in the floodplain was comparable to the mainstem Sacramento River. Our study demonstrates the response of an endangered anadromous fish population to extreme spatial and temporal variability in habitat accessibility and quality. The general model framework we introduce here can be applied to telemetry of migratory fish through systems with multiple routes to efficiently estimate spatiotemporal variation in survival, travel time, and routing. Nous avons developpe un nouveau modele statistique pour relier la survie quotidienne et la dynamique de la migration d'un poisson anadrome en voie de disparition au debit de la riviere et a la temperature de l'eau durant des secheresses et des crues extremes dans un reseau hydrographique faisant l'objet d'une gestion intensive. Notre modele bayesien multi-etats de marquage-recapture stratifie dans le temps integre sur les durees de deplacement et les changements de routes non observes afin d'estimer efficacement des relations entre variables correlees et il comprend un ajustement pour tenir compte de la defaillance des piles d'etiquettes telemetriques. Nous appliquons le modele a des saumons chinooks (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) juveniles de la migration hivernale dans le fleuve Sacramento dotes d'etiquettes acoustiques et constatons que la survie diminue quand les debits diminuent et que les temperatures de l'eau augmentent. Nous constatons aussi que les poissons sont susceptibles d'entrer dans une grande plaine inondable durant des conditions de crue et que la survie dans la plaine inondable est semblable a la survie dans le bras principal du fleuve Sacramento. L'etude illustre la reaction d'une population de poissons anadromes en voie de disparition a la variabilite spatiale et temporelle extreme de l'accessibilite et de la qualite des habitats. Le cadre general de modelisation que nous presentons peut etre applique a la telemetrie de poissons migrateurs dans des reseaux comptant des routes multiples, pour l'estimation efficace des variations spatiotemporelles de la survie, de la duree et des routes de deplacement. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction Populations of anadromous salmonids evolved in the context of significant spatial and temporal variation in riverine habitat. This variability includes daily, seasonal, and interannual fluctuations in discharge, temperature, and [...]

Objective: Managers can modify river flow regimes using fish monitoring data to minimize impacts from water management infrastructure. For example, operation of the gate-controlled Delta Cross Channel (DCC) in California can negatively affect the endangered Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Although guidelines have been developed for DCC operations by using real-time juvenile fish sampling count data, there is uncertainty about how environmental conditions influence fish occupancy and the extent to which those relationships are affected by sampling and identification error. Methods: We evaluated the effect of environmental conditions, imperfect detection, and misidentification error on salmon occupancy by analyzing data using hierarchical multistate occupancy models. A total of 14,147 trawl tows and beach seine hauls were conducted on 1058 sampling days between October and December from 1996 to 2019. During these surveys, 2803 juvenile winter-run Chinook Salmon were identified, and approximately 29% of the sampling days had at least one winter-run juvenile detected. Result: The probability of misidentifying an individual juvenile winter-run Chinook Salmon in the field was estimated to be 0.056 based on fish identification examinations and genetic sampling. Occupancy varied considerably and was related to flow characteristics, water clarity, weather, time of year, and whether occupancy was detected during the previous sampling day. However, these relationships and their significance changed considerably when accounting for imperfect detection and the probability of misidentifying individual juvenile salmon. Detection was <0.3 under average sampling conditions during a single sample and was influenced by flow, water clarity, site, and volume sampled. Conclusion: Our modeling results indicate that DCC gate closure decisions could occur on fewer days when imperfect detection and misidentification error are not accounted for. These findings demonstrate the need to account for identification and detection error while using monitoring data to assess factors influencing fish occupancy and inform future management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Efforts to ameliorate the negative effects of diversion dams on aquatic species of concern are important in rivers where water withdrawal supports agricultural economies, and they are likely to become increasingly important with impending climate change. A multi‐year study was conducted to evaluate the survival consequences of diversion dam passage for juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss in the highly managed Yakima River, Washington. Canal entrainment and passage were evaluated at four diversion dams in the lower Yakima River where seaward‐migrating juvenile salmon and steelhead either pass dams via spill bays or enter canals with downstream fish‐screening facilities designed to collect entrained fish and return them to the main‐stem river. Methods: We used acoustic telemetry to monitor the downstream migration behavior of 4403 juvenile Chinook Salmon and steelhead during 2018–2021. Result: Percent entrainment into canals was substantial (6–59%) at three of the four diversion dams studied, and entrainment probability was positively associated with the proportion of streamflow diverted into canals. Survival probability estimates for groups of tagged fish that were entrained into canals were lower than survival probability estimates for tagged fish that passed through spill bays on the dams. Absolute differences in survival probabilities between routes ranged from 0.099 to 0.369, demonstrating that canal entrainment reduced the survival of outmigrating juvenile Chinook Salmon and steelhead. We also found that entrainment resulted in migration delays, which could further affect survival because fish are increasingly exposed to predation and decreased water quality as water temperature increases throughout the migration season. Conclusion: Canal entrainment resulted in increased mortality and travel time through the study area, highlighting the need to limit the entrainment of juvenile salmon and steelhead at diversion dams in rivers where salmon recovery is important. Impact statementRivers are often managed to benefit humans, but science can provide insights that can be used to reduce negative impacts on native aquatic species. In this study, we found that canal entrainment resulted in decreased survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon and steelhead, providing actionable information for improving diversion dam operations to aid salmon recovery efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: A goal of many segregated salmonid hatchery programs is to minimize potential interbreeding between hatchery‐ and natural‐origin fish. Our objective was to assess this on the Klickitat River, Washington, USA. Methods: We used radiotelemetry to evaluate spatiotemporal spawning overlap between hatchery‐ and natural‐origin steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss and spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha. We estimated percentages of tagged fish that spawned naturally in the Klickitat River subbasin, emigrated from the Klickitat River, or died before spawning. A kernel density analysis was used to estimate probability of spatiotemporal overlap between hatchery‐ and natural‐origin spawners. Result: For steelhead, 12% of hatchery‐origin and 50% of natural‐origin fish spawned naturally. For spring Chinook Salmon, 18% of hatchery‐origin and 44% of natural‐origin fish spawned naturally. Tag loss may result in underestimates in these percentages. Most hatchery‐origin steelhead (90%) spawned downstream of river kilometer (rkm) 32, and 75% spawned from November to mid‐March. The majority of natural‐origin steelhead (64%) spawned upstream of rkm 32, and 75% spawned from mid‐March to late May. Spawn timing of hatchery‐origin Chinook Salmon (early August to mid‐September) overlapped with that of natural‐origin Chinook Salmon (late July to late September), and fish of both origins spawned in the same 30‐km reach of the river. We estimated the percentage of hatchery‐origin spawners (pHOS) on the natural spawning grounds to be 12% for steelhead and 40% for spring Chinook Salmon across all study years. For steelhead, we estimated the overlap probability to be 25% (95% CI = 22.5–28%). For spring Chinook Salmon, tight spatial clustering of hatchery‐origin fish resulted in a lower overlap estimate of 21% (13–31%). Conclusion: We suggest adjusting pHOS estimates using these overlap estimates or similar spatiotemporal data on actual spawner proximity and possible interactions, and that these types of analyses be used in conjunction with gene flow analysis to accurately evaluate effects of individual hatchery programs. Impact statementPacific Salmon and steelhead hatchery programs provide important fishery and conservation benefits. We monitored interactions between hatchery and wild populations by tracking radio‐tagged fish and their degree of actual physical overlap in space and time to better inform management and recovery of this critical resource. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluated the interacting influences of river flows and tides on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) migrating through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. To quantify these effects, we jointly modeled the travel time, survival, and migration routing in relation to individual time-varying covariates of acoustic-tagged salmon within a Bayesian framework. We used observed arrival times for detected individuals and imputed arrival times for undetected individuals to assign covariate values in each reach. We found travel time was inversely related to river inflow in all reaches, yet survival was positively related to inflow only in reaches that transitioned from bidirectional tidal flows to unidirectional flow with increasing inflows. We also found that the probability of fish entering the interior Delta, a low-survival reach, declined as inflow increased. Our study illustrates how river inflows interact with tides to influence fish survival during the critical transition between freshwater and ocean environments. Furthermore, our analytical framework introduces new techniques to integrate formally over missing covariate values to quantify effects of time-varying covariates. Nous avons evalue l'interaction des influences des debits de riviere et des marees sur le temps de deplacement, l'itineraire et la survie de saumons quinnats (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) juveniles de fin d'automne migrant dans le delta des fleuves Sacramento et San Joaquin. Pour quantifier ces effets, nous avons modelise conjointement le temps de deplacement, la survie et l'itineraire de migration par rapport a differentes covariables variant dans le temps de saumons dotes d'etiquettes acoustiques dans un cadre bayesien. Nous avons utilise les temps d'arrivee observes pour les individus detectes et impute des temps d'arrivee pour les individus non detectes afin d'affecter des valeurs aux covariables dans chaque tronqon. Nous constatons que le temps de deplacement est inversement relie au debit entrant dans tous les tronqons, alors que la survie n'est positivement reliee au debit entrant que dans les tronqons ou des debits tidaux bidirectionnels passent a un ecoulement unidirectionnel quand les debits entrants augmentent. Nous constatons aussi que la probabilite que les poissons entrent dans le delta interieur, un tronqon caracterise par une faible survie, diminue quand le debit entrant augmente. L'etude illustre comment les debits entrants de rivieres interagissent avec les marees pour influencer la survie des poissons durant le passage critique du milieu d'eau douce au milieu oceanique. En outre, notre cadre d'analyse presente de nouvelles methodes permettant l'integration formelle sur des valeurs de covariables manquantes pour quantifier les effets de covariables variant dans le temps. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction Anadromous salmonids have evolved diverse life history strategies that capitalize on spatial and temporal variation in their habitat to maximize productivity. Understanding how salmonids use habitat over space and [...]

Models that formulate mathematical linkages between fish use and habitat characteristics are applied for many purposes. For riverine fish, these linkages are often cast as resource selection functions with variables including depth and velocity of water and distance to nearest cover. Ecologists are now recognizing the role that detection plays in observing organisms, and failure to account for imperfect detection can lead to spurious inference. Herein, we present a flexible N-mixture model to associate habitat characteristics with the abundance of riverine salmonids that simultaneously estimates detection probability. Our formulation has the added benefits of accounting for demographics variation and can generate probabilistic statements regarding intensity of habitat use. In addition to the conceptual benefits, model application to data from the Trinity River, California, yields interesting results. Detection was estimated to vary among surveyors, but there was little spatial or temporal variation. Additionally, a weaker effect of water depth on resource selection is estimated than that reported by previous studies not accounting for detection probability. N-mixture models show great promise for applications to riverine resource selection. Les modeles qui formulent des liens mathematiques entre l'utilisation d'habitats par les poissons et les caracteristiques des habitats sont utilises a differentes fins. Pour les poissons de riviere, ces liens sont souvent presentes sous forme de fonctions de selection de ressources avec des variables comme la profondeur et la vitesse de l'eau et la distance du couvert le plus proche. Les ecologistes reconnaissent maintenant le role que joue la detection dans l'observation d'organismes, et le defaut de tenir compte d'une detection imparfaite peut mener a des inferences erronees. Nous presentons un modele de melange de N souple pour associer des caracteristiques de l'habitat a l'abondance de salmonides de riviere qui estime simultanement la probabilite de detection. Notre formulation a aussi l'avantage de tenir compte des variations demographiques et peut generer des enonces probabilistes concernant l'intensite de l'utilisation de l'habitat. En plus des avantages conceptuels, l'application du modele a des donnees de la riviere Trinity (Californie, Etats-Unis) donne des resultats interessants. S'il est estime que la detection varie selon la personne qui realise le releve, il y a peu de variation spatiale ou temporelle. En outre, l'effet estime de la profondeur de l'eau sur la selection de ressources est plus faible que ce dont font etat des etudes anterieures qui ne tiennent pas compte de la probabilite de detection. Les modeles de melange de N sont tres prometteurs pour des applications touchant a la selection de ressources dans les cours d'eau. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction Coupled physical and biological models often focus on interactions of target species with their environment for the purposes of exploring emergent properties (Harvey and Railsback 2009), evaluating management scenarios [...]

We conducted a meta-analysis of laboratory- and hatchery-based growth data to estimate broadly applicable parameters of mass- and temperature-dependent growth of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Following studies of other salmonid species, we incorporated the Ratkowsky growth model into an allometric model and fit this model to growth observations from eight studies spanning ten different populations. To account for changes in growth patterns with food availability, we reparameterized the Ratkowsky model to scale several of its parameters relative to ration. The resulting model was robust across a wide range of ration allocations and experimental conditions, accounting for 99% of the variation in final body mass. We fit this model to growth data from coho salmon inhabiting tributaries and constructed ponds in the Klamath Basin by estimating habitat-specific indices of food availability. The model produced evidence that constructed ponds provided higher food availability than natural tributaries. Because of their simplicity (only mass and temperature are required as inputs) and robustness, ration-varying Ratkowsky models have utility as an ecological tool for capturing growth in freshwater fish populations. Nous avons realise une meta-analyse de donnees sur la croissance obtenues en laboratoire et en ecloserie afin d'estimer des parametres largement applicables de la croissance dependant de la masse et de la temperature pour les saumons cohos (Oncorhynchus kisutch) juveniles. A l'instar d'etudes sur d'autres especes de salmonides, nous avons incorpore le modele de croissance de Ratkowsky dans un modele allometrique et cale ce modele sur des observations sur la croissance provenant de huit etudes portant sur dix populations differentes. Pour expliquer des variations des motifs de croissance en fonction de la disponibilite de nourriture, nous avons reparametre le modele de Ratkowsky pour ajuster a la ration l'echelle de plusieurs de ses parametres. Le modele en decoulant est robuste pour une grande fourchette d'allocations de rations et de conditions experimentales, expliquant 99 % de la variation de la masse corporelle finale. Nous avons cale ce modele sur des donnees de croissance pour des saumons cohos habitant des affluents et des etangs amenages dans le bassin du fleuve Klamath en estimant des indices de disponibilite de nourriture propres a l'habitat. Les resultats du modele indiquent que les etangs amenages presentent une plus grande disponibilite de nourriture que les affluents naturels. En raison de leur simplicite (les seules entrees requises sont la masse et la temperature) et leur robustesse, les modeles de Ratkowsky a rations variables constituent un outil ecologique utile pour decrire la croissance dans les populations de poissons d'eau douce. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction In Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), growth rates of juvenile fish are an important factor underlying productivity (Koenings et al. 1993; Beamish and Mahnken 2001; Ebersole et al. 2006; Connor [...]

Among four extant and declining runs of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in California's Central Valley, none has declined as precipitously as the Sacramento River winter run. Migratory winter‐run Chinook Salmon employ a life history strategy to reside and feed in stopover habitats on their way from freshwaters to the ocean. Migratory winter run, on their way from freshwaters to the ocean, employ a life history strategy to reside and feed in stopover habitats that have been affected by anthropogenic disturbance. Using acoustic telemetry, we examined conditions that influenced reach‐specific movement and survival of out‐migrating juveniles during a prolonged, multi‐year drought from 2013 to 2016, followed by one of the wettest years on record (2017). We modeled how time‐varying individual riverine covariates and reach‐specific habitat features influenced smolt survival. Model selection favored a model with mean annual flow, intra‐annual deviations from the mean flow at the reach scale, reach‐specific channel characteristics, and travel time. Mean annual flow had the strongest positive effect on survival. A negative interaction between mean annual flow and intra‐annual reach flow indicated that within‐year deviations at the reach scale from annual mean flow had larger effects on survival in low‐flow years. These factors resulted in higher survival during years with pulse flows or high flows. Changes in movement behavior in response to small‐scale changes in velocity were negatively associated with survival. Covariates of revetment and wooded bank habitat were positively associated with survival, but the effect of these fixed habitat features changed depending on whether they were situated in the upper or lower part of the river. Fish exhibited density‐dependent stopover behavior, with slowed downstream migration in the upper river in the wet years and extending to the lower river in the most critically dry year. This paper contributes two key findings for natural resource managers interested in flow management and targeted habitat restoration. The first is new insight into how the magnitude of pulse flows in dry and wet years affects survival of winter‐run fish. The second is that density dependence influences where stopover habitat is used. Despite this, we identified an area of the river where fish consistently exhibited stopover behavior in all years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ceratonova shasta is a myxozoan parasite endemic to the Pacific Northwest of North America that is linked to low survival rates of juvenile salmonids in some watersheds such as the Klamath River basin. The density of C. shasta actinospores in the water column is typically highest in the spring (March–June), and directly influences infection rates for outmigrating juvenile salmonids. Current management approaches require quantities of C. shasta density to assess disease risk and estimate survival of juvenile salmonids. Therefore, we developed a model to simulate the density of waterborne C. shasta actinospores using a mechanistic framework based on abiotic drivers and informed by empirical data. The model quantified factors that describe the key features of parasite abundance during the period of juvenile salmon outmigration, including the week of initial detection (onset), seasonal pattern of spore density, and peak density of C. shasta. Spore onset was simulated by a bio-physical degree-day model using the timing of adult salmon spawning and accumulation of thermal units for parasite development. Normalized spore density was simulated by a quadratic regression model based on a parabolic thermal response with river water temperature. Peak spore density was simulated based on retained explanatory variables in a generalized linear model that included the prevalence of infection in hatchery-origin Chinook juveniles the previous year and the occurrence of flushing flows (≥171 m³/s). The final model performed well, closely matched the initial detections (onset) of spores, and explained interannual variations for most water years. Our C. shasta model has direct applications as a management tool to assess the impact of proposed flow regimes on the parasite, and it can be used for projecting the effects of alternative water management scenarios on disease-induced mortality of juvenile salmonids such as with an altered water temperature regime or with dam removal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Worldwide, many productive rivers are dam‐regulated and rely on flow management strategies that must balance support of ecological processes with human water use. One component of evaluating this balance is to understand ecological consequences of alternative flow management strategies, which has often been accomplished by coupling population dynamics models with models that relate streamflow to habitat availability and quality. Numerous methods assign habitat availability to locations within a river basin: These include fine‐scale field‐measured values that are extrapolated to other locations within the basin having similar physical characteristics or equation‐driven values created by functions of model‐predicted values of physical characteristics. The array of options for creating habitat models is evolving rapidly as high‐resolution remote‐sensing data becomes more accessible and computational capacity improves. Our objective was to identify trade‐offs among approaches that assign habitat relationships to large rivers and to create a decision support tool to supplement choices of extent and granularity. Using a selection of case studies that represent a breadth of scales and diverse trade‐offs, we demonstrate the need for a transparent process of data evaluation and assessment to determine the appropriate fit for model scope or context that best supports management needs and recognize sources of uncertainty. The structured approach proposed here aims at improving future model development and refine population dynamics models that inform the management of rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Survival of juvenile salmonids in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) varies by migration route, and thus the proportion of fish that use each route affects overall survival through the Delta. Understanding factors that drive routing at channel junctions along the Sacramento River is therefore critical to devising management strategies that maximize survival. Here, we examine entrainment of acoustically tagged juvenile Chinook Salmon into Sutter and Steamboat sloughs from the Sacramento River. Because these sloughs divert fish away from the downstream entrances of the Delta Cross Channel and Georgiana Slough (where fish access the low-survival region of the interior Delta), management actions to increase fish entrainment into Sutter and Steamboat sloughs are being investigated to increase through-Delta survival. Previous studies suggest that fish generally "go with the flow"--as net flow into a divergence increases, the proportion of fish that enter that divergence correspondingly increases. However, complex tidal hydrodynamics at sub-daily time-scales may be decoupled from net flow. Therefore, we modeled routing of acoustic tagged juvenile salmon as a function of tidally varying hydrodynamic data, which was collected using temporary gaging stations deployed between March and May of 2014. Our results indicate that discharge, the proportion of flow that entered the slough, and the rate of change of flow were good predictors of an individual's probability of being entrained. In addition, interactions between discharge and the proportion of flow revealed a non-linear relationship between flow and entrainment probability. We found that the highest proportions of fish are likely to be entrained into Steamboat Slough and Sutter Slough on the ascending and descending limbs of the tidal cycle, when flow changes from positive to negative. Our findings characterize how patterns of entrainment vary with tidal flow fluctuations, providing information critical for understanding the potential effect of management actions (e.g., fish guidance structures) to modify routing probabilities at this location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected intensification of drought as a result of climate change may reduce the capacity of streams to rear fish, exacerbating the challenge of recovering salmonid populations listed under the Endangered Species Act. Without management intervention, some stocks will likely go extinct as stream drying and fragmentation reduce juvenile survival to unsustainable levels. To offset drought‐related mortality, fish rescue programs have proliferated, whereby juvenile salmonids are captured and transferred to off‐site rearing facilities. However, the efficacy of this potential conservation tool remains poorly understood. We developed a life cycle model to examine the implications of fish rescue on the abundance of Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch across serial life stages. The simulation model examines scenarios with varying quantities of rescued fish, time in captivity, drought severity, and reduced smolt‐to‐adult return rates. Our results indicate that fish rescue can increase the abundance of adults and lower extinction risk, particularly for fish held in captivity for a full year. However, fish rescue can also decrease the abundance of adults and increase extinction risk if fish are held only for summer and there is limited winter habitat. We found that when fish rescue did increase returns, it functioned more like a stock enhancement program than a drought mitigation tool and it would likely lead to consecutive generations of captive rearing, which has been shown to have negative effects on fitness. We translated our model into an R Shiny application (https://shiny.wdfw‐fish.us/CohoPopulationDynamics/) that allows users to explore how fish rescue affects Coho Salmon population dynamics through customized parameterization of the model to represent different systems or different assumptions about the effects of fish rescue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floodplains provide multiple benefits to both resident and migratory fish species, including juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but direct comparisons of survival during migration through a floodplain versus riverine routes are scarce. The Yolo Bypass is a broad floodplain of the Sacramento River that floods in about 30% of years in response to large, uncontrolled runoff events. We analyzed data from an acoustic telemetry study conducted in winter 2016 to estimate the proportion of tagged juvenile Chinook Salmon entrained from the Sacramento River into the Yolo Bypass and their spatial distribution within the Yolo Bypass. In addition, we compared survival and travel time of Chinook Salmon that migrated through the Yolo Bypass to those migrating via alternative non‐floodplain migration routes at varying stages of a flood event that activated the Yolo Bypass. We found that entrainment into the Yolo Bypass ranged from 1% to 80% among different release groups, with the highest entrainment coinciding with the peak of the March 2016 flooding event. Survival for Chinook Salmon migrating through the Yolo Bypass was similar to survival of those migrating through main‐stem migration routes. At the relatively high flows necessary to enable flooding of the Yolo Bypass, survival estimates varied little among release groups and migration routes. Furthermore, mean daily survival rates for Chinook Salmon migrating through the flooded Yolo Bypass were comparable to those of fish migrating through the other non‐floodplain routes. Median travel times remained relatively constant during various stages of flooding in the Yolo Bypass. This research should help managers to better understand the potential costs and benefits to floodplain restoration and routing of migrating Chinook Salmon into off‐channel habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding drivers of temporal variation in demographic parameters is a central goal of mark‐recapture analysis. To estimate the survival of migrating animal populations in migration corridors, space‐for‐time mark–recapture models employ discrete sampling locations in space to monitor marked populations as they move past monitoring sites, rather than the standard practice of using fixed sampling points in time. Because these models focus on estimating survival over discrete spatial segments, model parameters are implicitly integrated over the temporal dimension. Furthermore, modeling the effect of time‐varying covariates on model parameters is complicated by unknown passage times for individuals that are not detected at monitoring sites. To overcome these limitations, we extended the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) framework to estimate temporally stratified survival and capture probabilities by including a discretized arrival time process in a Bayesian framework. We allow for flexibility in the model form by including temporally stratified covariates and hierarchical structures. In addition, we provide tools for assessing model fit and comparing among alternative structural models for the parameters. We demonstrate our framework by fitting three competing models to estimate daily survival, capture, and arrival probabilities at four hydroelectric dams for over 200 000 individually tagged migratory juvenile salmon released into the Snake River, USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because fish that enter the interior Delta have poorer survival than those emigrating via the Sacramento River, understanding the mechanisms that drive entrainment rates at side channel junctions is critically important for the management of imperiled juvenile salmon. Here, we implement a previously proposed process-based conceptual model to study entrainment rates based on three linked elements: the entrainment zone, critical streakline, and cross-sectional distribution of fish. The critical streakline is the location along a channel cross-section immediately upstream of a junction that forms the spatial divide between parcels of water that enter a side channel or remain in the main channel. The critical streakline therefore divides the main channel into entrainment zones within which fish would likely enter each channel. Combined with information about the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of a junction, this conceptual model provides a means to predict fish entrainment into each channel. To apply this conceptual model, we combined statistical models of the critical streakline, the cross-sectional distribution of acoustic tagged juvenile Chinook salmon, and their probability of entrainment into Georgiana Slough. We fit joint beta regression and logistic regression models to acoustic telemetry data gathered in 2011 and 2012 to estimate the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of the junction, and to estimate the probability of entrainment for fish on either side of the critical streakline. We show that entrainment rates can be predicted by understanding how the combination of critical streakline position and cross-sectional distribution of fish co-vary as a function of environmental covariates. By integrating over individual positions and entrainment fates to arrive at population-level entrain probability in relation to environmental covariates, our model offers managers a simple but powerful tool to evaluate how alternative actions affect migrating fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Providing efficient downstream passage is critical for improving populations of migratory fishes in impounded river systems. High‐head dams, such as those used for water storage or flood‐risk management, pose unique passage challenges requiring unique solutions. Systems to collect fish in dam forebays ("forebay collectors") for transport to downstream release locations have been used at some high‐head dams in the western United States since the 1950s. Collection efficiency of these facilities has ranged from nearly 0% to 100%, suggesting the need for a better understanding of factors affecting performance in these complex environments if they are to be designed and deployed at new sites. We compiled information on environmental, structural, and performance characteristics of seven existing forebay collectors to quantify factors affecting their performance based on a meta‐analysis using a data set containing 52 separate collection estimates. Covariates included species type (steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss, Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha, Coho Salmon O. kisutch, and Sockeye Salmon O. nerka), collector inflow, collector entrance area, relative size of the dam forebay, and whether or not nets were used to enhance collection. We found that inflow, the use of lead nets, the size of the collector entrance area, the relative size of the dam forebay, and the interaction between collector entrance and forebay areas were significant predictors of collection performance. There was also evidence for differences between species. Chinook Salmon exhibited the lowest collection rates among the projects we examined, while steelhead collection rates were highest. These results provide guidance to design more efficient forebay collectors and improve the success of existing systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is asserted that reduction or elimination of hatchery stocking will increase natural‐origin salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead O. mykiss production. We conducted an analysis of steelhead population census data (1958–2017) to determine whether elimination of summer steelhead stocking in the upper Clackamas River in 1998 increased the productivity of natural‐origin winter steelhead. A Bayesian state–space stock–recruitment model was fitted to the adult steelhead data set, and productivity was estimated as a function of hatchery‐origin spawner abundance as well as other environmental factors. When used as a predictive variable in our model, the abundance of hatchery summer steelhead spawners (1972–2001) did not have a negative effect on winter steelhead recruitment. However, spill at North Fork Dam (the gateway to the upper Clackamas River basin) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (an index of ocean conditions) were both negatively associated with winter steelhead recruitment. Moreover, winter steelhead abundance in the upper Clackamas River basin failed to rebound to abundances observed in years prior to the hatchery program, and fluctuations in winter steelhead abundance were correlated with those of other regional winter steelhead stocks. Our assessment underscores the need for studies that (1) directly quantify the effects of hatchery fish on the production of natural‐origin salmon and steelhead, (2) empirically test published theories about mechanisms of hatchery fish impacts on natural‐origin populations, and (3) document population responses to major changes in hatchery programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of impassable dams severely affected many Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. populations, resulting in reintroduction efforts that are now focused on returning anadromous fish to areas located upstream of these dams. A primary strategy for moving adult salmon and steelhead O. mykiss around a dam or multiple dams involves trapping fish downstream and transporting them to upstream areas ("trap and haul") for spawning. We conducted a 4‐year radiotelemetry study to evaluate behavior and movement patterns of hatchery‐ and natural‐origin adult spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha after a trap‐and‐haul program was implemented around three dams on the Cowlitz River, Washington. A multistate model was used to describe how factors such as origin, sex, release site location, and discharge affected transition rates to riverine areas where spawning habitat was located. Natural‐origin Chinook Salmon moved upstream from a reservoir release site and entered one of two rivers more quickly and in greater proportions than hatchery‐origin fish. Results from the multistate model indicated that transition rates from the reservoir to the Cowlitz River were 2.2 times higher for natural‐origin Chinook Salmon than for hatchery‐origin fish. About one‐half (49.6%) of the reservoir‐released hatchery‐origin Chinook Salmon moved upstream into the Cowlitz River or the Cispus River during the spawning period. The release of hatchery‐origin Chinook Salmon directly into these rivers increased the percentage of fish with river fates during the spawning period to 72.3–75.4%. Results from the multistate model showed that factors such as release site location, origin, day of year, and discharge were important predictors of transition intensities between specific locations in the study area. These findings illustrate the need to evaluate how salmon and steelhead respond to trap‐and‐haul methods, allowing for better management of reintroduction efforts in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A robust monitoring network that provides quantitative information about the status of imperiled species at key life stages and geographic locations over time is fundamental for sustainable management of fisheries resources. For anadromous species, management actions in one geographic domain can substantially affect abundance of subsequent life stages that span broad geographic regions. Quantitative metrics (e.g., abundance, movement, survival, life history diversity, and condition) at multiple life stages are needed to inform how management actions (e.g., hatcheries, harvest, hydrology, and habitat restoration) influence salmon population dynamics. The existing monitoring network for endangered Sacramento River winterrun Chinook Salmon (SRWRC, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in California's Central Valley was compared to conceptual models developed for each life stage and geographic region of the life cycle to identify relevant SRWRC metrics. We concluded that the current monitoring network was insufficient to diagnose when (life stage) and where (geographic domain) chronic or episodic reductions in SRWRC cohorts occur, precluding within- and among-year comparisons. The strongest quantitative data exist in the Upper Sacramento River, where abundance estimates are generated for adult spawners and emigrating juveniles. However, once SRWRC leave the upper river, our knowledge of their identity, abundance, and condition diminishes, despite the juvenile monitoring enterprise. We identified six system-wide recommended actions to strengthen the value of data generated from the existing monitoring network to assess resource management actions: (1) incorporate genetic run identification; (2) develop juvenile abundance estimates; (3) collect data for life history diversity metrics at multiple life stages; (4) expand and enhance real-time fish survival and movement monitoring; (5) collect fish condition data; and (6) provide timely public access to monitoring data in open data formats. To illustrate how updated technologies can enhance the existing monitoring to provide quantitative data on SRWRC, we provide examples of how each recommendation can address specific management issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Survival of out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta, California, USA, varies by migration route. Survival of salmonids that enter the interior and southern Delta can be as low as half that of salmonids that remain in themain-stemSacramento River. Reducing entrainment into the higher-mortality routes, such asGeorgiana Slough, should increase overall survival. In spring 2014, a floating fish-guidance structure (FFGS) designed to reduce entrainment into Georgiana Slough was deployed just upstream of the Georgiana Slough divergence. We used acoustic telemetry to evaluate the effect of the FFGS on Chinook entrainment to Georgiana Slough. At intermediate discharge (200-400 m³ s -1), entrainment into Georgiana Slough was five percentage points lower when the FFGSwas in the on state (19.1% on; 23.9% off). At higher discharge (.400m³ s -1), entrainment was higherwhen the FFGS was in the on state (19.3% on; 9.7%off), and at lower discharge (0-200 m³ s -1) entrainment was lower when the FFGS was in the on state (43.7% on; 47.3% off). We found that discharge, cross-stream fish position, time of day, and proportion of flowremaining in the SacramentoRiver contributed to the probability of being entrained to Georgiana Slough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As juvenile salmon enter the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta ("the Delta") they disperse among its complex channel network where they are subject to channel-specific processes that affect their rate of migration, vulnerability to predation, feeding success, growth rates, and ultimately, survival. In the decades before 2006, tools available to quantify growth, dispersal, and survival of juvenile salmon in this complex channel network were limited. Fortunately, thanks to technological advances such as acoustic telemetry and chemical and structural otolith analysis, much has been learned over the past decade about the role of the Delta in the life cycle of juvenile salmon. Here, we review new science between 2006 and 2016 that sheds light on how different life stages and runs of juvenile salmon grow, move, and survive in the complex channel network of the Delta. One of the most important advances during the past decade has been the widespread adoption of acoustic telemetry techniques. Use of telemetry has shed light on how survival varies among alternative migration routes and the proportion of fish that use each migration route. Chemical and structural analysis of otoliths has provided insights about when juveniles left their natal river, and provided evidence of extended rearing in the brackish or saltwater regions of the Delta. New advancements in genetics now allow individuals captured by trawls to be assigned to specific runs. Detailed information about movement and survival in the Delta has spurred development of agent-based models of juvenile salmon that are coupled to hydrodynamic models. Although much has been learned, knowledge gaps remain about how very small juvenile salmon (fry and parr) use the Delta. Understanding how all life stages of juvenile salmon grow, rear, and survive in the Delta is critical for devising management strategies that support a diversity of life history strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous methods for constructing univariate habitat suitability criteria (HSC) curves have ranged from professional judgement to kernel-smoothed density functions or combinations thereof. We present a new method of generating HSC curves that applies probability density functions as the mathematical representation of the curves. Compared with previous approaches, benefits of our method include (1) estimation of probability density function parameters directly from raw data, (2) quantitative methods for selecting among several candidate probability density functions, and (3) concise methods for expressing estimation uncertainty in the HSC curves. We demonstrate our method with a thorough example using data collected on the depth of water used by juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) in the Klamath River of northern California and southern Oregon. All R code needed to implement our example is provided in the appendix. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to represent a population of migratory juvenile fish with PIT tags becomes difficult when the minimum tagging size is larger than the average size at which fish begin to move downstream. Tags that are smaller (e.g., 8 and 9 mm) than the commonly used 12-mm PIT tags are currently available, but their effects on survival, growth, and tag retention in small salmonid juveniles have received little study. We evaluated growth, survival, and tag retention in age-0 Chinook SalmonOncorhynchus tshawytschaof three size-groups: 40–49-mm fish were implanted with 8- and 9-mm tags, and 50–59-mm and 60–69-mm fish were implanted with 8-, 9-, and 12-mm tags. Survival 28 d after tagging ranged from 97.8% to 100% across all trials, providing no strong evidence for a fish-size-related tagging effect or a tag size effect. No biologically significant effects of tagging on growth in FL (mm/d) or weight (g/d) were observed. Although FL growth in tagged fish was significantly reduced for the 40–49-mm and 50–59-mm groups over the first 7 d, growth rates were not different thereafter, and all fish were similar in size by the end of the trials (day 28). Tag retention across all tests ranged from 93% to 99%. We acknowledge that actual implantation of 8- or 9-mm tags into small fish in the field will pose additional challenges (e.g., capture and handling stress) beyond those observed in our laboratory. However, we conclude that experimental use of the smaller tags for small fish in the field is supported by our findings. Received January 9, 2015; accepted May 8, 2015 [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Juvenile Chinook SalmonOncorhynchus tshawytschaemigrating from natal tributaries of the Sacramento River, California, must negotiate the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta (hereafter, the Delta), a complex network of natural and man-made channels linking the Sacramento River with San Francisco Bay. Fish that enter the interior and southern Delta—the region to the south of the Sacramento River where water pumping stations are located—survive at a lower rate than fish that use alternative migration routes. Consequently, total survival decreases as the fraction of the population entering the interior Delta increases, thus spurring management actions to reduce the proportion of fish that are entrained into the interior Delta. To better inform management actions, we modeled entrainment probability as a function of hydrodynamic variables. We fitted alternative entrainment models to telemetry data that identified when tagged fish in the Sacramento River entered two river channels leading to the interior Delta (Georgiana Slough and the gated Delta Cross Channel). We found that the probability of entrainment into the interior Delta through both channels depended strongly on the river flow and tidal stage at the time of fish arrival at the river junction. Fish that arrived during ebb tides had a low entrainment probability, whereas fish that arrived during flood tides (i.e., when the river's flow was reversed) had a high probability of entering the interior Delta. We coupled our entrainment model with a flow simulation model to evaluate the effect of nighttime closures of the Delta Cross Channel gates on the daily probability of fish entrainment into the interior Delta. Relative to 24-h gate closures, nighttime closures increased daily entrainment probability by 3 percentage points on average if fish arrived at the river junction uniformly throughout the day and by only 1.3 percentage points if 85% of fish arrived at night. We illustrate how our model can be used to evaluate the effects of alternative water management actions on fish entrainment into the interior Delta. Received May 9, 2014; accepted December 10, 2014 [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook SalmonOncorhynchus tshawytschathat were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate ofbwill be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Received May 20, 2014; accepted December 4, 2014 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An integral part of efforts to recover stocks of Pacific salmonOncorhynchusspp. and steelheadO. mykissin Pacific Northwest rivers is to increase passage efficacy and survival of juveniles past hydroelectric dams. As part of this effort, we evaluated the efficacy of a prototype surface bypass structure, the removable spillway weir (RSW), installed in a spillbay at Lower Granite Dam, Washington, on the Snake River during 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006. Radio-tagged juvenile steelhead were released upstream from the dam and their route of passage through the turbines, juvenile bypass, spillway, or RSW was recorded. The RSW was operated in an on-or-off condition and passed 3–13% of the total discharge at the dam when it was on. Poisson rate models were fit to the passage counts of hatchery- and natural-origin juvenile steelhead to predict the probability of fish passing the dam. Main-effect predictor variables were RSW operation, diel period, day of the year, proportion of flow passed by the spillway, and total discharge at the dam. The combined fish passage through the RSW and spillway was 55–85% during the day and 37–61% during the night. The proportion of steelhead passing through nonturbine routes was <88% when the RSW was off during the day and increased to >95% when the RSW was on during the day. The ratio of the proportion of steelhead passed to the proportion of water passing the RSW was from 6.3:1 to 10.0:1 during the day and from 2.7:1 to 5.2:1 during the night. Steelhead passing through the RSW exited the tailrace about 15 min faster than fish passing through the spillway. Mark–recapture single-release survival estimates for steelhead passing the RSW ranged from 0.95 to 1.00. The RSW appeared to be an effective bypass structure compared with other routes of fish passage at the dam. Received June 13, 2013; accepted February 2, 2014 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parasites and pathogens influence the size and stability of wildlife populations, yet many population models ignore the population-level effects of pathogens. Standard survival analysis methods (e.g., accelerated failure time models) are used to assess how survival rates are influenced by disease. However, they assume that each individual is equally susceptible and will eventually experience the event of interest; this assumption is not typically satisfied with regard to pathogens of wildlife populations. In contrast, mixture cure models, which comprise logistic regression and survival analysis components, allow for different covariates to be entered into each part of the model and provide better predictions of survival when a fraction of the population is expected to survive a disease outbreak. We fitted mixture cure models to the host–pathogen dynamics of Chinook SalmonOncorhynchus tshawytschaand Coho SalmonO. kisutchand the myxozoan parasiteCeratomyxa shasta. Total parasite concentration, water temperature, and discharge were used as covariates to predict the observed parasite-induced mortality in juvenile salmonids collected as part of a long-term monitoring program in the Klamath River, California. The mixture cure models predicted the observed total mortality well, but some of the variability in observed mortality rates was not captured by the models. Parasite concentration and water temperature were positively associated with total mortality and the mortality rate of both Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon. Discharge was positively associated with total mortality for both species but only affected the mortality rate for Coho Salmon. The mixture cure models provide insights into how daily survival rates change over time in Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon after they become infected withC. shasta. Received August 5, 2013; accepted October 26, 2013 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of fish to a transmitter depends on factors such as environmental conditions, fish morphology, life stage, rearing history, and tag design. However, synthesizing general trends across studies is difficult because each study focuses on a particular performance measure, species, life stage, and transmitter model. These differences motivated us to develop simple metrics that allow effects of transmitters to be compared among different species, populations, or studies. First, we describe how multiple regression analysis can be used to quantify the effect of tag burden (transmitter mass relative to fish mass) on measures of physiological performance. Next, we illustrate how the slope and intercept parameters can be used to calculate two summary statistics: θ, which estimates the tag burden threshold above which the performance of tagged fish begins to decline relative to untagged fish; andk, which measures the percentage change in performance per percentage point increase in tag burden. When θ = 0,kprovides a single measure of the tag's effect that can be compared among species, populations, or studies. We apply this analysis to two different experiments that measure the critical swimming speed (Ucrit) of tagged juvenile Chinook SalmonOncorhynchus tshawytscha. In both experiments,Ucritdeclined as tag burden increased, but we found no significant threshold in swimming performance. Estimates of θ ranged from −0.6% to 2.1% among six unique treatment groups, indicating that swimming performance began to decline at a relatively low tag burden. Estimates ofkrevealed thatUcritof tagged fish declined by −2.68% to −4.86% for each 1% increase in tag burden. Both θ andkvaried with the tag's antenna configuration, tag implantation method, and posttagging recovery time. Our analytical approach can be used to gain insights across populations to better understand factors affecting the ability of fish to carry a transmitter. Received August 22, 2012; accepted March 13, 2013 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing temperatures and changes in food resources owing to climate change may alter the growth and migratory behavior of organisms. This is particularly important for salmonid species like Oncorhynchus mykiss, where some individuals remain in freshwater to mature (nonanadromous Rainbow Trout) and others migrate to sea (anadromous Steelhead). Whether one strategy is adopted over the other may depend on the individual's growth and size. In this study, we explored (1) how water temperature in Beaver Creek, a tributary to the Methow River, Washington, may increase under four climate scenarios, (2) how these thermal changes may alter the life history trajectory followed by O. mykiss (i.e., when and if to smolt), and (3) how changes in food quality or quantity might interact with increasing temperatures. We combined bioenergetic and state-dependent life history models parameterized for O. mykiss in Beaver Creek to mimic baseline life history trajectories. Based on our simulations, when mean water temperature was increased by 0.6°C there was a reduction in life history diversity and a 57% increase in the number of individuals becoming smolts. When mean temperature was increased by 2.7°C, it resulted in 87% fewer smolts than in the baseline and fewer life history trajectories expressed. A reduction in food resources led to slower growth, more life history trajectories, and a greater proportion of smolts. In contrast, when food resources were increased, fish grew faster, which reduced the proportion of smolts and life history diversity. Our modeling suggests that warmer water temperatures associated with climate change could decrease the life history diversity of O. mykiss in the central portion of their range and thereby reduce resiliency to other disturbances. In addition, changes in food resources could mediate or exacerbate the effect of water temperature on the life history trajectories of O. mykiss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]