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7. Erratum: 'Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050'

Author

Kivimaki, Mika, Batty, G. David, Pentti, Jaana, Suomi, Juuso, Nyberg, Solja T., Merikanto, Joonas, Nordling, Kalle, Ervasti, Jenni, Suominen, Sakari B., Partanen, Antti-Ilari, Stenholm, Sari, Kayhko, Jukka, and Vahtera, Jussi

Subjects
Environmental issues, Health
Abstract

The footnotes for Table 4 were inadvertently omitted. The table note should read: Note: Adjustments to the model included the following: model 1: calendar year; model 2: calendar year, age, [...]

Published
2024
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11. Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050

Author

Kivimaki, Mika, Batty, G. David, Pentti, Jaana, Suomi, Juuso, Nyberg, Solja T., Merikanto, Joonas, Nordling, Kalle, Ervasti, Jenni, Suominen, Sakari B., Partanen, Antti-Ilari, Stenholm, Sari, Kayhko, Jukka, and Vahtera, Jussi

Subjects
Heat stress disorders -- Statistics -- Risk factors -- Patient outcomes, Mortality -- Environmental aspects -- Health aspects -- Finland, Summer -- Health aspects, Climatic changes -- Health aspects, Cardiovascular diseases -- Statistics -- Risk factors -- Patient outcomes, Environmental issues, Health
Abstract

Background: Climate change scenarios illustrate various pathways in terms of global warming ranging from 'sustainable development' (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1-1.9), the best-case scenario, to 'fossil-fueled development' (SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario. Objectives: We examined the extent to which increase in daily average urban summer temperature is associated with future cause-specific mortality and projected heat-related mortality burden for the current warming trend and these two scenarios. Methods: We did an observational cohort study of 363,754 participants living in six cities in Finland. Using residential addresses, participants were linked to daily temperature records and electronic death records from national registries during summers (1 May to 30 September) 2000 to 2018. For each day of observation, heat index (average daily air temperature weighted by humidity) for the preceding 7 d was calculated for participants' residential area using a geographic grid at a spatial resolution of 1 km * 1 km. We examined associations of the summer heat index with risk of death by cause for all participants adjusting for a wide range of individual-level covariates and in subsidiary analyses using case-crossover design, computed the related period population attributable fraction (PAF), and projected change in PAF from summers 2000-2018 compared with those in 2030-2050. Results: During a cohort total exposure period of 582,111,979 summer days (3,880,746 person-summers), we recorded 4,094 deaths, including 949 from cardiovascular disease. The multivariable-adjusted rate ratio (RR) for high ([greater than or equal to]21[degrees]C) vs. reference (14-15[degrees]C) heat index was 1.70(95% CI: 1.28, 2.27) for cardiovascular mortality, but it did not reach statistical significance for noncardiovascular deaths, RR = 1.14 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.36), a finding replicated in casecrossover analysis. According to projections for 2030-2050, PAF of summertime cardiovascular mortality attributable to high heat will be 4.4% (1.8%-7.3%) under the sustainable development scenario, but 7.6% (3.2%-12.3%) under the fossil-fueled development scenario. In the six cities, the estimated annual number of summertime heat-related cardiovascular deaths under the two scenarios will be 174 and 298 for a total population of 1,759,468 people. Discussion: The increase in average urban summer temperature will raise heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden. The estimated magnitude of this burden is >1.5 times greater if future climate change is driven by fossil fuels rather than sustainable development. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12080, Introduction Global warming is a major public health challenge. (1-3) Vulnerable people, particularly the old and infirm, are likely to be most affected. By increasing cardiovascular strain (predisposing to ischemia) [...]

Published
2023
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35. Stimulating leisure-time activities and the risk of dementia: a multi-cohort study.

Author

Heikkilä, Katriina, Pentti, Jaana, Dekhtyar, Serhiy, Ervasti, Jenni, Fratiglioni, Laura, Härkänen, Tommi, Kivimäki, Mika, Koskinen, Seppo, Ngandu, Tiia, Stenlund, Säde, Suominen, Sakari, Vahtera, Jussi, Rovio, Suvi, and Stenholm, Sari

Subjects
*DEMENTIA risk factors, *RISK assessment, *SELF-evaluation, *RESEARCH funding, *DESCRIPTIVE statistics, *LEISURE, *LONGITUDINAL method, *CONFIDENCE intervals, *PATIENT aftercare, *PROPORTIONAL hazards models, *MIDDLE age
Abstract

Background Stimulating activities are associated with a decreased risk of dementia. However, the extent to which this reflects a protective effect of activity or non-participation resulting from dementia is debated. We investigated the association of stimulating leisure-time activity in late adulthood with the risk of dementia across up to two decades' follow-up. Methods We used data from five prospective cohort studies from Finland and Sweden. Mental, social, outdoor, consumptive and physical leisure-time activities were self-reported. Incident dementia was ascertained from clinical diagnoses or healthcare and death registers. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results Of the 33 263 dementia-free individuals aged ≥50 years at baseline, 1408 had dementia during a mean follow-up of 7.0 years. Active participation in mental (HR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.65), social (HR: 0.56 95% CI: 0.46 to 0.72), outdoor (HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.85), consumptive (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.53 to 0.94) and physical (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.51 to 0.75) activity, as well as variety (HR: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.68) and the overall frequency of activity (HR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.49) were associated with a reduced risk of dementia in <10 years' follow-up. In ≥10 years' follow-up all associations attenuated toward the null. Conclusion Stimulating leisure-time activities are associated with a reduced risk of dementia in short-term but not long-term follow-up. These findings may reflect a reduction in leisure-time activity following preclinical dementia or dilution of the association over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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46. Long working hours and change in body weight: analysis of individual-participant data from 19 cohort studies

Author

Virtanen, Marianna, Jokela, Markus, Lallukka, Tea, Magnusson Hanson, Linda, Pentti, Jaana, Nyberg, Solja T., Alfredsson, Lars, Batty, G. David, Casini, Annalisa, Clays, Els, DeBacquer, Dirk, Ervasti, Jenni, Fransson, Eleonor, Halonen, Jaana I., Head, Jenny, Kittel, France, Knutsson, Anders, Leineweber, Constanze, Nordin, Maria, Oksanen, Tuula, Pietiläinen, Olli, Rahkonen, Ossi, Salo, Paula, Singh-Manoux, Archana, Stenholm, Sari, Suominen, Sakari B., Theorell, Töres, Vahtera, Jussi, Westerholm, Peter, Westerlund, Hugo, and Kivimäki, Mika

Published
2020
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