1. The climatic debt of loggerhead sea turtle populations in a warming world
- Author
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David C. Rostal, Maria A. G. dei Marcovaldi, Kristina L. Williams, Mariana M. P. B. Fuentes, Jenny Tucek, Jean-Michel Guillon, Milagros López-Mendilaharsu, Anne-Marie LeBlanc, Marc Girondot, Alexsandro Santana dos Santos, Paulo H. Lara, Yakup Kaska, Kirt Rusenko, Jonathan Monsinjon, Jeanette Wyneken, Ronel Nel, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Florida Atlantic University [Boca Raton], Florida State University [Tallahassee] (FSU), Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University [Port Elizabeth, South Africa], Georgia Southern University, and University System of Georgia (USG)
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Reptilia ,General Decision Sciences ,Climate change ,Reptile ,adaptation ,Phenotypic plasticity ,010501 environmental sciences ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Loggerhead sea turtle ,hatching ,14. Life underwater ,Sex ratios ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Caretta caretta ,Thermal tolerance ,Ecology ,biology ,reproductive strategy ,Phenology ,Global warming ,Caretta ,Forestry ,turtle ,biology.organism_classification ,wild population ,Cheloniidae ,reproductive success ,13. Climate action ,Sustainability ,Embryonic development ,Incubation ,temperature tolerance ,Adaptation ,Hatching success ,[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology ,[SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology ,Oviparity ,Sex ratio - Abstract
International audience; Phenological shifts, by initiating reproductive events earlier, in response to advanced seasonal warming is one of the most striking effects currently observed in wild populations. For sea turtles, phenological adjustment to warming conditions could be the most effective short-term adaptation option against climate change. We calculated future phenological changes required in seven important loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting populations to continue achieving a high hatching success and a sex ratio that lies within current ranges. Considering temperature-mediated phenological changes, we found that most populations (six out of seven) will not be able to keep pace with a warming climate. Under an optimistic climate warming scenario (RCP4.5), these populations will face a climatic debt, that is, a difference between required and expected phenological changes, and warming will substantially reduce hatching success and induce a feminization of hatchlings, which may jeopardize their reproductive sustainability. Our approach offers the possibility to quantify the efficiency of phenological shifts in oviparous reptiles by considering physiological, developmental and phenological processes.
- Published
- 2019
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