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The Sencelles Fault constitutes the main extensional structure of Mallorca Island (Spain), holds a NE-SE orientation, and has been identified as the possible seismic source of the 1851 CE Palma earthquake (VII EMS.) The SE termination of the fault (Sta. Eugenia Segment) features a linear bedrock fault scarp of a maximum of 3.15 m height. The last 840 m of this rocky scarp display a significant horizontal banding, with up to five differentially weathered ribbons colonized by lichens. The lichenometric analysis is based on the measurement of 155 specimens of Aspicilia calcarea (Ac) and Aspicilia radiosa (Ar) in tombstones and funerary monuments (with inscribed dates) from the nearby cemeteries of Sta. María del Camí, Sta. Eugenia and Sencelles, to obtain the local lichen growth rates (LGR), with the two last graveyards being directly located in the fault zone. Lichens were measured on variously oriented (N, S, NE, SW, etc…) horizontal and vertical surfaces, generating differentially oriented lichen populations (DOLPs) to be compared with the Ac and Ar specimens colonizing the studied fault scarp (38 measured individual specimens). After successive trial and error regression tests, vertical DOLPs resulted in the best appropriate groups for the analysis, with LGR of 0.23–0.31 mm/yr. Horizontal ones reached widths of up to 20 cm, with LGR up to 0.84 mm/yr, which were clearly oversized. The application of the selected LGR points to a human-induced origin for the thin basal lichen ribbon of the scarp (10–13 cm), which should have developed during the middle 20th century (c. 1950–1966) because of documented ground leveling works. However, the second ribbon of the scarp (23–47 cm) shows exposure dates of 1852 ± 40 (Ar) and 1841 ± 59 (Ac), overlapping the date of the 1851 CE earthquake. The study is complemented with data from a fault trench excavated in the year 2002 at the toe of the scarp. The combined data of lichenometry, fault trenching, and the length of the analyzed fault scarp (c. 840 m) indicate that the studied segment of the fault cannot be considered a co-seismic surface faulting related to the 1851 CE event as a whole, but a relevant secondary earthquake effect on a pre-existing fault scarp (e.g., sympathetic ground ruptures).

Background COVID-19 related in-hospital venous thromboembolism (VTE) incidence is high but data reported vary significantly. Some studies show that up to half of the events are diagnosed early after admission. Objectives To study symptomatic VTE incidence in acute COVID-19 hospitalized patients and to describe timing of VTE diagnosis. Methods Multicenter cohort of 5966 patients hospitalized with acute COVID-19. Multicenter Registry of 844 hospitalized patients with acute COVID-19 and associated acute VTE. Results By the time of cohort data collection, 68 patients (1.14%) were still hospitalized, 19.8% had died, and 5.4% required ICU. During a median follow-up of 6 days (IQR, 4–12), 183 patients (3.07%; 95% CI, 2.64–3.55) presented a symptomatic VTE event. The cumulative incidences of VTE at 7, 14 and 21 days in wards [2.3% (95% CI, 1.9–2.7), 3.6% (95% CI, 3.0–4.3), and 4.3% (95% CI, 3.5–5.1)] were similar to the ones reported in ICU [2.2% (95% CI, 1.0–4.4), 2.9% (95% CI, 1.5–5.3), and 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2–6.8)], but at 30 and 60 days were higher in ICU [6.9% (95% CI, 4.2–10.5), and 12.8% (95% CI, 8.1–18.5)] than in wards. Eighty-eight VTE events (48%) were diagnosed early, within 48 h of admission. VTE was not associated with death (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.55–1.12). Conclusions Incidence of symptomatic VTE in our COVID-19 cohort is consistent with that of other real-life studies recently published. Early VTE events are, along with COVID-19, the reason for admission rather than an in-hospital complication.

This work presents a macroseismic analysis of the AD 1755 Lisbon Earthquake-Tsunami event by means of the combination of intensity data derived from the EMS-98 scale and the ESI-07 scale (Environmental damage). About 600 records of secondary earthquake environmental effects (EEEs) for the whole Spain have been used to define intensities, focused on the SW portion of the Iberian Peninsula. The Spanish data have been complemented with 308 EEEs records from Portugal. The analyses indicate maximum intensities of X EMS-ESI along the Atlantic margin of the Iberian Peninsula with 76 records of Tsunami environmental effects (TEEs). An important amplification (VIII – VII) occurred all along the Guadalquivir basin and the adjacent Betic front at epicentral distances of 300–700 km. In these zones 55 records of ground effects (ground cracks, Liquefactions and slope movements) are catalogued. In the rest of the territory of the Peninsula the most widespread effects were hydrogeological changes with 505 records in Spain and 196 in Portugal (total 701 records) covering all the intensity levels. Increase of flow discharges in springs and elevation of water level in wells was the common groundwater response to seismic shacking, especially in SW Iberia. In this zone water elevation in wells was between 5 and 3 m and persistent increases of discharges long-lasting (several days to two months). Persistent discharges on springs were linked in 143 cases to important SW-NE crustal faults (e.g., Alentejo-Plasencia Fault). From the Intensity distribution the historic seismic scenarios are explored by means of the development of empirical ShakeMaps. These consider the three classical seismic sources proposed for this earthquake: Gorringe Bank (G); Marques de Pombal Fault (M) and Atlantic delamination beneath the Gulf of Cadiz (C). However, individually these seismic sources are too small and unable to generate the resulting seismic scenario depicted by the intensity map developed in this work, with onshore seismic accelerations (PGA) up to 0.82 g. These acceleration values and the great amplification experienced throughout the Guadalquivir basin (0.34–0.52 g) are only possible considering a combination of the three seismic sources (GMC Source) probably related to shallow subduction or lithospheric delamination beneath SW Iberia and the Gulf of Cadiz. This will suggest an NNE-SSW offshore rupture length of 350–360 km with an overall rupture area of c. 84,500 km2 resulting in an event magnitude 8.6 Mw calculated from empirical relationships. The results demonstrate the efficacy of these kind of approaches for better identifying and modelling seismic sources for historical events, This work was supported by the Spanish Research Project MINECOFEDER CGL2015-67169-P (QTECSPAIN - USAL). It is a contribution of the Earthquake Geology Group (TPPT) of the INQUA TERPRO Commission. Authors are grateful to the constructive comments of Joao Fonseca and an anonymous reviewer who significantly improved the content of this paper

The present study deals with the morphometric quantification of erosion and illustrates the uplift component triggered by denudation (isostasy) in the growth and evolution of a rising orogeny by the application of Airy isostasy concepts. The Gibraltar Arc, located in the Western&ndash, Central sector of the Betic Cordillera, developed an exceptional geological scenario during the Messinian Salinity Crisis since the thin emerged fringe of the uprising Cordillera disconnected the Atlantic and Mediterranean basins, generating a relevant misbalance and asymmetry in the fluvial erosion between the two slopes of the emergent orogeny. Our analysis was applied to 50 individual drainage basins (spatial isostatic units) in the Western&ndash, Central Betic Cordillera, allowing us to obtain individual and bulk estimates for these isostatic parameters. GIS-based numerical estimations were obtained using LiDAR Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) provided by the Spanish Geographical Institute and reconstructed pre-incision surface models obtained from proxy paleo-elevation data, estimated from stratigraphic and geomorphological littoral to shallow marine markers. The obtained values for geophysical relief, denudation plates, erosion/uplift rates and computed accumulated uplift (245&ndash, 407 &plusmn, 20 m) are higher for the ancient Mediterranean slope of the orogen. On the contrary, the Atlantic slope presents an accumulated uplift of only 138&ndash, 236 &plusmn, 20 m, indicating the strong control of the ancient Messinian Atlantic&ndash, Mediterranean water divide. The temporal study of erosion indicates that most of the difference in uplift in the Mediterranean slope was achieved during or soon after the Messinian Salinity Crisis, resulting in mean uplift rates of 0.21 mm/y, but practically null (0.01 mm/y) for the Atlantic slope. The comparison of the geophysical relief models with proxy paleo-elevation data allowed us to assess the current state of the denudation process in the range. The results indicate that, towards the west of the range denudation compensated elevation, and is actively back-feeding isostatic rebound. Therefore, the contribution of external processes to mountain range elevation through isostasy is quantitatively estimated using elevation data. In this case, a relevant part of the surface uplift (50-55%) is undertaken by the orogen. Ultimately, the Messinian Salinity Crisis-related isostatic response to differential denudation may be behind the quaternary westward tilting of Iberia, causing more than 70% of the Peninsula to drain towards the Atlantic.

This paper presents a geomorphological analysis of the littoral zone of the Arosa-Pontevedra estuary mouth and identifies geomorphological units and categorizes them into morphogenetic systems. The different morphogenetic systems are used to establish a comprehensive evolutionary analysis, contrasting the depositional systems found in the continental littoral zone with the marine erosional systems (‘rasas’). The compiled cartography groups the geomorphological units into the following: the lithoestructural morphogenetic system with large-scale forms (domes, inselbergs, residual relief, etc.) and small-scale forms (gnammas, tafoni, channels, etc.); the littoral morphogenetic system comprised of marine (marine terraces, beaches, tidal bars, tombolos and coastal arrows), transition (marshes, lagoons and fan deltas) and eolian (dune systems) settings; the fluvial morphogenetic system with channelled (alluvial, flood plain and river terraces), transition (alluvial fans and alluvial cones) and sheet flood (pediments and glacis) systems; the gravitational morphogenetic system (colluvium); and the alteration morphogenetic system (sand-alteration)., This work has been supported by the research projects CGL2015-67169-P (MINECO-FEDER) and CGL2015-69919-R

by Witold Zuchiewicz and Jerzy Zasadni (2012) intended for this volume YOUNG TECTONICS OF THE OUTER WESTERN CARPATHIANS IN THE LIGHT OF SOME MORPHOMETRIC INDICES In this paper, we test the applicability of some morphometric indices commonly used in tectonic-geomorphological studies to the area of the Outer Western Carpathians representing an Alpine fold-and-thrust belt. This belt was shaped largely in Miocene times and shows traces of Pliocene-Quaternary tectonic activity consisting mainly in some remnant folding and faulting. This is indicated by scarce examples of faulting within Quaternary strata, numerous cases of clast fracturing owing to palaeoearthquakes of relatively large magnitudes, as well as warping and tilting of Pleistocene and Holocene strath terraces. Analysis of selected morphometric indices (valley floor width-valley height ratio, riverbed gradients, stream length-gradient index, basin elongation ratios and others), conducted for the entire region and some chosen test areas in the westernmost part of the Outer Western AC C EP TE D M AN U SC R IP T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT 24 Carpathians, proved their usefulness in detecting zones showing tendencies to young surface uplift. However, in the case of the stream length-gradient index (SL, Hack’s index) a word of caution should be added, since the index is extremely sensitive to lithologic contrasts in the bedrock and its applicability to young tectonic analysis of fold-and-thrust belts appears to be strongly limited. Dr Andrzej Piotrowski, apiot@pgi.gov.pl, Szczecinie Panstwowy Instytut Geologiczny, Szczecin, Poland and Dr Klaus Reicherter, RWTH Aachen University, Germany

This work performs a geomorphological mapping procedure applied to the evolutionary analysis of the landscape, such that it groups different geomorphological units photointerpreted in large geomorphological domains. This allows greater utility and ease of identification and application in the different multidisciplinary studies of environmental geology and the evolution of the landscape. Geomorphological analysis allows the investigation of the reconstruction of the relief from the processes that have shaped the landscape over time. This work is a tool for the analysis of palaeolandscapes and palaeoreliefs applied to correct environmental and sustainable planning of the territory. The process starts from a morphostructural zoning in which they are grouped according to their erosive and depositional forms and the morphogenetic system to which they belong: structural, fluvial, gravitational, and polygenic. The procedure is applied to two natural parks: Batuecas and Quilamas, differentiating 18 geomorphological domains. The 2D and 3D cartographies have been implemented in virtual 3D balloons allowing a greater ease of landscape analysis in the spatial distribution of the different units over orthophotographs. The morphological and chronological evolution of the evolution of the landscape is established from the relative age of the lithological units and the geomorphological domains, as well as by their geospatial position. Georeferenced digital mapping complies with the Inspire directive for these natural spaces., This research was funded by projects from the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness CGL2015-67169-P and CGL2015-69919-R., We acknowledge support by the CSIC Open Access Publication Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI).

Active tectonics within the Upper Tagus Basin is related to the lithospheric flexure affecting the Palaeozoic basement of the basin. This flexure displays NE-SW trending. Besides, this structure is in agreement with the regional active stress field defined by the maximum horizontal stress with NW-SE trending. In this tectonic framework, irregular clusters of instrumental seismicity (Mw< 5.0) fade in the zone bounded by the Tagus River and the Jarama River valleys. These clusters are related to major NW-SE trending faults of suspected strike-slip kinematics. Moreover, reverse faults with NE-SW trending are affected by the strike-slip system as well. Despite the reverse faults are in agreement with the present SHMAX orientation, though, they apparently are blocked as seismogenic sources (scarce instrumental seismicity recorded today). In addition, we have determined the regional and local stress/ strain fields and two different fracture patterns were observed. Hence, we have divided the area in two zones: (1) the lateral bands of the basin, defined by reverse faulting (NE-SW trending) and strike-slip faulting (NW-SE trending) and (2) the central zone of the basin characterized by shallow normal faulting and NE-SW trending strike-slip faults. Furthermore, surface faulting and liquefaction structures are described affecting Middle to Late Pleistocene fluvial deposits, suggesting intrabasinal palaeoseismic activity (5.5 < M < 6.5) during the Late Quaternary. The obtained structural and tectonic information has been used to classify and characterize the Upper Tagus Basin as a semi-stable intraplate seismogenic zone, featured by Pleistocene slip-rates < 0.02 mm/yr. This value is low but it affords the occurrence of Pleistocene paleoearthquakes.

Instrumental and historical seismicity in the Albacete province (External Prebetic Zone) has been scarcely recorded. However, major strike-slip faults showing NW-SE trending provide geomorphologic and paleoseismic evidence of recent tectonic activity (Late Pleistocene to Present). Moreover, these faults are consistently well oriented under the present stress tensor and therefore, they can trigger earthquakes of magnitude greater than M6, according to the lengths of surface ruptures and active segments recognized in fieldwork. Present landscape nearby the village of Hellin (SE of Albacete) is determined by the recent activity of the Pozohondo Fault (FPH), a NW-SE right-lateral fault with 90 km in length. In this study, we have calculated the Late Quaternary tectonic sliprate of the FPH from geomorphological, sedimentological, archaeoseimological, and paleoseismological approaches. All of these data suggest that the FPH runs with a minimum slip-rate of 0.1 mm/yr during the last 100 kyrs (Upper Pleistocene-Holocene). In addition, we have recognized the last two major paleoearthquakes associated to this fault. Magnitudes of these paleoearthquakes were gretarer than M6 and their recurrence intervals ranged from 6600 to 8600 yrs for the seismic cycle of FPH. The last earthquake was dated between the 1st and 6th centuries, though two earthquakes could be interpreted in this wide time interval, one at the FPH and other from a far field source. Results obtained here, suggest an increasing of the tectonic activity of the Pozohondo Fault during the last 10,000 yrs., Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, España, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, México, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, España, Departamento de Geología, Escuela Politécnica Superior de Ávila, Universidad de Salamanca, España, United States Geological Survey, Estados Unidos

This paper investigates a series of small-scale, short-lived fluctuations of sea level registered in a prograding barrier spit that grew during the MIS 5e. This interglacial includes three highstands (Zazo et al., 2003) and we focus on the second highstand, of assumed duration ∼10 ± 2 ka, given that U–Th ages do not provide more accurate data. Geometry and 3D architecture of beach facies, and thin-section petrography were used to investigate eight exposed offlapping subunits separated by seven conspicuous erosion surfaces, all interpreted as the result of repeated small-scale fluctuations of sea level. Each subunit records a relatively rapid rise of sea level that generated a gravelly shoreface with algal bioherms and a sandy uppermost shoreface and foreshore where most sand accumulated. A second range of still smaller-scaled oscillations of sea level has been deduced in this phase of sea-level fluctuation from lateral and vertical shifts of the foreshore-plunge-step-uppermost shoreface facies. Eventually, progradation with gently falling sea level took place and foreshore deposits underwent successive vadose cementation and subaerial dissolution, owing to relatively prolonged exposure. Later recovery of sea level re-established the highstand with sea level at approximately the same elevation, and there began deposition of a new subunit. The minimum sea-level variation (fall and subsequent rise) required to generate the observed features is 4 m. The time span available for the whole succession of events, and comparison with the Holocene prograding beach ridge complex in the nearby Roquetas (Almería) were used to calculate the periodicity of events. A millennial-suborbital time scale is suggested for fluctuations separating subunits and a decadal scale for the minor oscillations inside each subunit., Research Projects CGL08-03998BTE, CGL08-04000BTE, Consolider-Ingenio CSD2007-00067-GRACCIE, AECI-A/017978/08 and NEAREST-UE-GOCE-037110. UCM Research Group 910198 (Paleoclimatology and Global Change); GEOTOP Lab. Contrib. IGCP 588 and 495. INQUA Project 0911 and INQUA Coastal and Marine Processes Commission.

During the first field-meeting of the Madrid Quaternary Research Group (GQM-AEQUA) several fossil teeth remnants of horses were localised at the ancient sand-quarries of Pantoja de La Sagra (Toledo), which presently are abandoned and refilling in progress. The possibility of deterioration and loss of the localised fossils remnants induced by the quarry works, they were collected and taken away to the Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC, Madrid) for their preservation and analysis. Fossil remains correspond to a left maxilla with two in situ molars, another one inset on its alveolar cavity, fragments of premolar cavities, as well as other seven more isolated teeth. These fossils were outcropping in a sandy level at four meters below the +15 m fluvial terrace surface of the axial sector of de Prados-Guatén Depression, which is considered the last fluvial level belonging to the ancient Manzanares-Guatén fluvial system during the Lower-Middle Pleistocene transit (Silva, 1988). In detail, the upper fluvial sediments of this particular terrace level were interpreted as the result of the overlapping between the last materials deposited by the ancient Manzanares-Guatén fluvial system and the first ones resulting from the readjustment of former tributaries after the abandonment of the Depression caused by fluvial capture of the Lower Manzanares Valley SW Madrid City. The morphological features of the oclusal surface of the horse teeth and morphometric comparative analyses indicate that they belong to the specie Equus ferus, and probably to the subspecie mosbachensis. However due to the bad definition of this group in Europe and the few individuals analysed the better classification is Equus ferus cf. mosbachensis. The bioestratigraphic distribution of this fossil horse group in Europe extends on the upper part of the Middle Pleistocene (c.a. 500-200 ka B.P.). Few lithic artefacts outcropped also associated to the fossil remains, constituted by laminar flakes of hard technological classification. Fossil remains analysed in this work joint to the unique previous quaternary fossil mammal described for the Prados-Guatén Depression constituted by Mammuthus meridionalis NESTI of the former quarry of Esquivias adjacent to the AVE railway line (Silva et al., 1988b ; 1999). The chronostratigraphic attribution of the fossil horses (Upper Middle Pleistocene) described here indicate that fluvial sedimentary activity within the Depression was relevant after its abandonment. Ancient tributaries of the former Manzanares-Guatén fluvial system, feed by local-intrabasinal headwaters, reworked the previous sandy sediments triggering multiepisodic deposition during the upper part of the Middle Pleistocene, before the more recent eventual incision of present streams dissecting the Depression.

Digital analysis of torrential gullies (‘barrancos’) deeply incised into the volcanic Island of Gran Canaria (Canary Islands) allows us to extract the longitudinal profiles and pre-incision surfaces for individual basins, from which morphometric parameters (length, elevation, area, slope) have been calculated. Other derived parameters, such as ridgeline profiles, maximum incision values, volume removed by fluvial erosion, geophysical relief and isostatic uplift, have also been computed. Based on K/Ar ages for the island, well-constrained incision-uplift rates have been calculated by means of the combination of different methodological approaches commonly used in orogens and large mountain ranges. The geomorphological and morphometric analyses reveal that the island is clearly divided into four environmental quadrants determined by the combination of a couple of key-factors: the age of the volcanic surfaces and the climatic conditions. These factors determine a young sector covered with Plio-Quaternary platform-forming lavas (finished at 1.9–1.5 Ma) evolving under contrasting wet (NE) to dry (SE) climates, and an older sector, conserving the residual surfaces of the Miocene shield building (14.5–8.7 Ma) at the ridgelines, also subjected to wet (NW) and dry (SW) climates. Incision is related to the age zonation of the island. Maximum incisions (

The application of the rational choice postulate to a political context invariably leads to the conclusion that most voters are ill informed when making the decision on whom to vote for. In this paper, the authors conduct an empirical evaluation of the rational ignorance theory, based on the model developed by (Rogoff and Sibert Rev Econ Stud LV:1–16, (1988) and by considering that better informed voters reward political candidates who show better performances. The levels of performance are established through the construction of an empirical frontier using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology. According to our results, based on the 1997 Portuguese local elections, even though swing voters do not necessarily behave as rationally ignorant voters, a large majority of voters are rationally ignorant. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

This study represents the first paleoseismic approach in Spain in which archaeological remains are considered. The ancient Roman city of Baelo Claudia (1st-4th centuries AD), located at the axial zone of the Gibraltar Strait (Cadiz, south Spain), contains abundant disrupted architectural relics and ground collapses (i.e. landsliding, liquefacion) probably related to historic earthquake damage of intensity IX-X MSK. The archaeological stratigraphy of the city evidence two major episodes of abrupt city destruction bracketed in AD 40-60 and AD 350-395 separated by an intervening horizon of demolition for city rebuilding, otherwise characteristic for many earthquake-damaged archaeological sites in the Mediterranean. The second episode led the eventual city abandonment, and it is evidenced by good examples of column collapse, distortion, failure and breakdown of house and city walls, and pavement warping and disruptions documented during different archaeological excavations, which can be catalogued as secondary coseismic effects. Main damaged relicts observable today are the set of pop-up like arrays and warping developed in the ancient Roman pavement. Their analysis indicate an anomalous westwards ground displacement oblique to the main gentle southward slope of the topography, as also evidence failures, collapses and breakdown of walls and columns, suggesting that stress acted in a broad SW-NE/WSW-ENE orientation consistent whit the expectable motion along the largest NE-SW strike-slip faults of the zone, which in turn can be catalogued as seismic sources of moderate events (ca. 5 mb). Major disruptions and city abandonment were hesitantly related to relatively far strong earthquakes occurred during the late 4th century AD in the Mediterranean or western coast of Iberia by Menanteau et al. [Menanteau, L., Vanney, J.R., Zazo, C., 1983. Belo II : Belo et son environment (Detroit de Gibraltar), Etude physique d'un site antique. Pub. Casa de Velazquez, Serie Archeologie 4., Ed. Broccard, París.]. However, this study indicates that the occurrence of close moderate earthquakes jointly with the unstable character of the ground at the zone (site effect) is a more reliable hypothesis to explain the observed deformations., This work has been supported by the 97-00 Project of the Fund. Ramón Areces, the Spanish DGES Projects BT-02/1065 and BT-02/1691 and by the Acciones Intergradas grant HA2004-0099.

Deposits of the Last Interglacial on the south and southeastern coasts of Spain are shallow marine and coastal sediments, with a warm fauna of Strombus bubonius. These units exhibit a diversity of morpho-sedimentary models controlled by the tectonic activity of the Mediterranean area, which is closely related to the approximation of Africa and Iberia during the Quaternary. There are three well-dated peaks of maximum sea level (T-I: isotopic substage 7a, T-II: isotopic substage Se, T-III: isotopic substage 5c). A younger episode, T-IV, probably corresponds to the isotopic substage 5a. Episodes T-II, T-III and T-IV were laid down during Last Interglacial age. In addition, three Holocene peaks of maximum sea level: H1 ca. 5100 yr B.P., H2 ca. 3500 yr B.P. and H3 ca. 2400 yr B.P. were found. The three main peaks of the Last Interglacial correspond to the morpho-sedimentary Tyrrhenian units T-II, T-III and T-IV, deposited during a time span of sorne 45,000 years. Several smaller oscillations can be distinguished within each of these units as subunits separated by erosional surfaces. At least three of such mapable subunits were distinguished within the peak T-II (Se); each lasted ca. 10,500 yr. As the positive oscillations of sea level (H1, H2, and H3) recorded during the present Interglacial (Holocene) are much shorter, we infer that they are smaller-scale fluctuations (2500-1100 yr cycles) within the first oscillation (duration: ca. 10,500 yr) of the first Holocene peak of sea level which has not yet been completed. In addition to changes of sea level, the vertical and lateral arrangement of morpho-sedimentary units, which can be designated as the stratigraphic architecture, depends on tectonics and oceanography, including geoidal and steric changes and coastal dynamics. The coastal dynamics factor largely depends on the exchange of waters between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Maximum incursions of water coincides with warm periods (highstands) when the coastal accretion increases. The tectonic factor greatly influences and modifies the effects of sea-level changes in the coastal areas of tectonically-active regions such as the Mediterranean. Areas with tectonic uplift will be characterized by a staircase of prograding gravelly beaches, whereas sinking areas will favour the deposition of vertically stacked sequences with coastal onlap of barrier island and lagoon deposits. Rates of sea-level rise for the coming years of 1 cm/yr, have been suggested by sorne authors. These gradients greatly exceed those produced by any tectonic factor in the Spanish coast during the last 100 kyr. Shoreface erosion and transgression with landward migration of barrier islands and lagoons will occur in subsiding areas (Murcia-Alicante and Valencia), even with relatively low rates of sea-Ievel rise Oess than 0.5 cm/yr). Higher rates of sea-level rise (0.5-1 cm/yr) will increase the transgressive trend. Areas with subsidence rates higher than 7.5 cm/kyr (Mar Menor and Oval of Valencia) are prone to transgression and erosion of barrier islands and lagoons both in the cases of stable and rising sea levels. Risks are smaller in areas with lower rates of subsidence (La Mata, Santa Pola and Torrevieja lagoons) when a stable sea level is considered; however, any rise of sea level will trigger coastal erosion.