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Introduction and objective. Hungary is one of the areas in Europe most infected with ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) and its pollen, and is the most important cause of seasonal allergic rhinoconjunctivitis in the country. The aim of the study was to investigate the association between ragweed pollen allergy and long-term ragweed pollen load, as well as analysis of the the impacts of additional potential risk factors on health outcomes. Materials and method. A modified version of standardized questionnaires, based on the International Study of Asthma and Allergy in Childhood, were completed by the parents of schoolchildren aged 8 – 9 attending 3rd grade classes throughout the country. Pollen load was calculated for each settlement from daily ragweed pollen concentrations monitored by 19 monitoring stations in the country. Descriptive and analytical statistical methods were applied. Results. At national level there was a significant inverse association between prevalence of ragweed allergy and its pollen load, but significance was lost after excluding data from Budapest, the capital city, due to the impact of urbanization. In the adjusted model, parental atopic disease was the strongest risk factor (either parent had atopic disease aOR=2.60; 95% CI=2.31–2.93 or both parents had atopic disease aOR=4.56; 95% CI=3.71–5.60). Further significant risk factors were male gender (aOR=1.52; 95% CI=1.36–1.71), lower respiratory infection in the first two years of life (aOR=1.91; 95% CI=1.70–2.16), and unshared children’s room (aOR=1.22; 95% CI=1.09–1.37). Allergy was significantly less common among children whose parents received social aid (aOR=0.83; 95% CI=0.72–0.97) and whose mother smoked during pregnancy (aOR=0.80; 95% CI=0.64–0.99). Conclusions. Higher ragweed pollen exposure was not found to be associated with higher risk of ragweed allergy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC, one of the greatest health impacts of climate change will be the heat-related excess mortality. In Hungary, the National Adaptation Geo-Information System (NAGiS) helps the adaptation process of climate change. Within CRIGiS project, which was initiated to extend the NAGiS, our special subtask was the assessment of heat-related excess mortality at different area levels in the present and for two predicted future periods. This assessment is described in this paper. The Hungarian Central Statistical Office provided the daily mortality data for the period of May 1 - Sep 30, 2005-2014. The observed daily mean temperature data for the same period at small area level (NUTS 4, Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics) were provided by the Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS). The modeled daily mean temperature data at NUTS 4 level based on the ALADIN-Climate model for three periods, May 1 - Sep 30 of 1991-2020, 2021-2050, and 2071-2100, were also provided by HMS. The heatwave days were defined by the 90th percentile of the frequency distribution of daily mean temperatures at different area levels. The excess mortality was computed by extracting the mean daily mortality of cool days from the number of deaths on heatwave days. As we found a difference between the frequency distributions of observed and modeled present periods, a correction was done assuring that the yearly sums of excess mortality were the same in the observed and modeled present periods. Based on the corrected threshold values the changes in the future could be predicted. During 2005-2014, the range of daily threshold temperature was between 22.3 °C and 25.4 °C, the mean excess mortality was 15.8% on the heatwave days at NUTS 4 level. At national level, daily mortality was higher by 51 cases on heatwave days than on cool days, which corresponded to an excess of 783 death cases per year in average. According to the climate model, the number and intensity of heatwave days will increase in relation to the present situation. Assuming the same population and level of sensitivity, for 2021-2050 a 2.6-fold, for 2071-2100 a 7.4-fold increase of excess deaths is predicted causing 2030 and 5800 cases per year, respectively. The prediction of excess mortality at different area levels in the NAGiS database will help stakeholders to prepare adaptation measures to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long-distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion risk and provide useful guidance for management strategies to reduce the impacts of invasion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies investigating the associations between indoor air quality and health symptoms of schoolchildren have created a substantial knowledge; however, there are still inconsistencies and knowledge gaps. In the framework of the InAirQ study, the associations between the occurrence of recent health symptoms of children and the exposure to air pollutants in school buildings were investigated across Central Europe. Volatile organic compounds, aldehydes, PM 2.5 mass, carbon dioxide and physical parameters (temperature, relative humidity) were measured during the heating period of 2017/2018 in 64 primary school buildings. A questionnaire was used to survey the prevalence of allergy and the occurrence of past-year asthma-like and recent (<3 months) respiratory, ocular, dermal and general symptoms of the children in the monitored classroom. In total, 1084 parent-reported questionnaires were completed. Significant spatial differences were identified in the reported symptoms. While the highest frequencies of asthma-like symptoms were reported among the Slovenian schoolchildren, the highest occurrences of recent respiratory, dermal and general symptoms were found in Poland. Regarding the relationship between the frequencies of respiratory symptoms and the concentrations of air pollutants, the following significant associations were identified: nasal obstruction and ethylbenzene, xylenes, formaldehyde, PM 2.5 mass; sore throat and formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, propionaldehyde, hexanal, carbon dioxide, air stuffiness; irritative cough and PM 2.5 , hazard index. High concentrations of aromatic hydrocarbons were associated with the high occurrences of dermal symptoms. Significant associations were found between the frequencies of headache and fatigue and the levels of air stuffiness, while the occurrence of fatigue was also associated with hexanal concentrations. • IAQ was investigated in 64 school buildings in 5 Central European countries. • Recent health symptoms of 1084 children were collected by questionnaire. • Significant spatial differences were observed in the reported health symptoms. • The occurrences of health symptoms were similar to those reported previously. • Further insight in the IAQ-related health symptoms was provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme high and low temperatures and precipitation totals may have important effect on daily and annual pollen concentrations. The aim of this study is to analyse the associations between pollen characteristics and meteorological variables, furthermore between the rank of pollen characteristics and the rank of annual values of meteorological variables for Szeged, southern Hungary. Pollen characteristics include pollen count parameters (TPA, total annual pollen amount; APC, annual peak pollen concentration) and pollen season parameters (start, end and duration of the pollen season). Meteorological variables are temperature and precipitation. The data set used covers a 14-year period (1997–2010) and contains daily values of Ambrosia (ragweed), Poaceae (grasses) and Populus (poplar) pollen concentrations, as well as those of temperature and precipitation. Both Pearson and Spearman rank correlations were calculated, because the rank correlation is less sensitive than the correlation to outliers that are in the tails of the sample. Our results suggest that Ambrosia and Populus are reversely related to temperature (negative correlations), while Poaceae exhibit a parallel relationship with precipitation (positive correlations). On the whole, pollen count characteristics (TPA and APC) indicate a decrease for Ambrosia and Poaceae, while for Populus an increase is expected. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Objectively defined clusters of meteorological elements and weather types described by weather fronts and precipitation occurrences are produced in order to classify Poaceae pollen levels. The Poaceae pollen concentration was then estimated one day ahead for each of the above categories of days at the villages of Szeged and Győr in Hungary. The database describes an 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. For weather-front recognition purposes, the ECMWF ERA-INTERIM database was used. In order to estimate the actual daily Poaceae pollen concentrations, previous-day values of five meteorological variables and previous-day Poaceae pollen concentrations were applied. We find that both for Szeged and Győr, as well as both for the subjective and objective classifications, high daily mean Poaceae pollen levels are favoured by anticyclone ridge weather situations, as we might expect. When estimating the Poaceae pollen level, the previous-day pollen concentration, previous-day mean temperature, and previous-day mean global solar flux for Győr were statistically significant, but for Szeged it was only the previous-day pollen concentration. Taking into account the clusters, the objective classification based on original data proved the most effective. For the subjective classification, the best estimates were obtained for days with a warm front and precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have reported significant health effects of air pollution even at low levels of air pollutants, but in most of theses studies linear nonthreshold relations were assumed. We investigated the exposure–response association between ambient particles and mortality in the 22 European cities participating in the APHEA (Air Pollution and Health—A European Approach) project, which is the largest available European database. We estimated the exposure–response curves using regression spline models with two knots and then combined the individual city estimates of the spline to get an overall exposure–response relationship. To further explore the heterogeneity in the observed city-specific exposure–response associations, we investigated several city descriptive variables as potential effect modifiers that could alter the shape of the curve. We conclude that the association between ambient particles and mortality in the cities included in the present analysis, and in the range of the pollutant common in all analyzed cities, could be adequately estimated using the linear model. Our results confirm those previously reported in Europe and the United States. The heterogeneity found in the different city-specific relations reflects real effect modification, which can be explained partly by factors characterizing the air pollution mix, climate, and the health of the population.

The increase of Lyme borreliosis (LB) can be expected due to climate change, while the distribution of the disease and annual activity of the vector and host animals depend on several factors of the environment. The presented study aimed to assess expressly the spring season temperature dependence on the incidence of LB in Hungary. The weekly LB data were obtained from the National Epidemiologic and Surveillance System for a period of 13 years--1998-2010. Daily temperature data were derived from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset. The association was studied at national level, descriptive statistics and linear regression models were applied. A significant increasing trend was observed in the mean temperature of the analysed years (0.052°C per year). The annual LB incidence doubled during the 13 year period. The incidence rates of the periods 1998-2001 and 2007-2010 were 11.1 resp. 17.0 per 100,000. The start of a steep increase in weekly LB incidence (0.1 per 100,000) shifted significantly by 3 weeks earlier, the start date of spring showed similar trend (p=0.0041). LB incidence increased more steadily in spring than in summer, with 79% of the increase being reported during weeks 15-28, with maximum rates of increase occurring in weeks 23-25. The trend was significant between the weeks 15-28. In the warmer years with 19.02°C mean temperature in May and June, the LB incidence curve reached the annual peak 2-3 weeks earlier, and the descending phase of the curve started earlier than in the colder years with 17.06°C of the same period.