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Democratic institutions and state-society relations shape governance arrangements and expectations between public and private stakeholders about public health impact. We illustrate this with a comparison between the English Public Health Responsibility Deal (RD) and the Dutch ‘All About Health…’ (AaH) programme. As manifestations of a Whole-of-Society approach, in which governments, civil society and business take responsibility for the co-production of economic utility and good health, these programmes are two recent collaborative platforms based on voluntary agreements to improve public health. Using a ‘most similar cases’ design, we conducted a comparative secondary analysis of data from the evaluations of the two programmes. The underlying rationale of both programmes was that voluntary agreements would be better suited than regulation to encourage business and civil society to take more responsibility for improving health. Differences between the two included: expectations of an enforcing versus facilitative role for government; hierarchical versus horizontal coordination; big business versus civil society participants; top-down versus bottom-up formulation of voluntary pledges and progress monitoring for accountability versus for learning and adaptation. Despite the attempt in both programmes to base voluntary commitments on trust, the English ‘shadow of hierarchy’ and adversarial state-society relationships conditioned non-governmental parties to see the pledges as controlling, quasi-contractual agreements that were only partially lived up to. The Dutch consensual political tradition enabled a civil society-based understanding and gradual acceptance of the pledges as the internalization by partner organizations of public health values within their operations. We conclude that there are institutional limitations to the implementation of generic trust-building and learning-based models of change ‘Whole-of-Society’ approaches.

After a steady improvement in the fiscal position over the past decade, the standoff over clearance revenues has severely constrained the PA budget, leading to a significant expansion in expenditure arrears. Going forward, however, uncertainty about a resolution for the clearance revenue standoff will weigh on the economy. Over the last two decades, the Palestinian economy has been driven by large inflows of transfers as other sources of growth have been long-hindered by the ongoing Israeli restrictions on movement and access. Under a baseline scenario which assumes a continuation of the Israeli restrictions, persistence of the internal divide between the West Bank and Gaza and a decline in aid levels, the Palestinian economy is expected to slip into a recession in 2020 and 2021, even if additional, one-off transfers from clearance revenues are made. As financial buffers are depleted, the reduced revenues will require sizable cuts in public spending, which in turn would translate in reduced consumption and investment. The decline in growth implies a sizable decline in real per capita income and a rise in poverty. The Palestinian financial sector continues to face substantial risks against the backdrop of the fiscal crisis. The negative impact of the deepening fiscal crisis on the quality of loan portfolios across the banking sector has started to materialize as both non-performing loans and classified loans have been on an upward trajectory. With the severe liquidity shortage facing the PA, it has resorted to domestic banks to finance its needs raising the sector’s exposure to the PA for the first time in a number of years. Banks are also rescheduling outstanding loans held by PA employees who are receiving a reduced salary, compounding the destabilizing effect on the sector. However, the fact that the PA is simultaneously building up an asset in the form of tax revenues not received from the GoI ameliorates the situation as the increased exposure may be seen as a temporary trend. Another cause of concern is a possible disruption in Correspondent Banking Relationships (CBRs) between Palestinian banks and their Israeli counterparts due to de-risking by Israeli banks. The immunity and indemnity package given by the GoI to banks with CBRs are set to expire in May 2020 and February 2021, respectively, when a longer term and more sustainable intervention is expected to be in place. While resolving the fiscal crisis is an immediate priority there remains a broader reform agenda to improve the economy and Palestinian living standards.

UID/ELT/00657/2013 The archipelago of the Azores is composed of 9 islands located in the Atlantic Ocean. Each island has its own strong cultural identity and specific geographical, geological and environmental characteristics. The habits of these islands have been influenced by the strong immigration to the U.S.A. and Canada. However, their eating habits have changed very little. Each island has its own specific gastronomy but they all have just one sweet in common: Massa Sovada (a type of sweet bread). Wherever the Azoreans are, massa sovada is present. We can find it in all festivities and gatherings. It has always been associated with festivities and offerings. It functions as the unification element between communities. However, each island can give it a different name. This archipelago celebrates the Cult of The Holy Ghost. All communities get together each year to prepare the communal feast, share food and present the offerings to the divinity. Massa sovada is always present. This research analyses the symbolic meaning of such a food, as an offering to the divinity and a sharing act between family members and neighbors, during the Holy Ghost Feasts, weddings, baptisms and pig-slaughtering. It registers its function as an identity element of the Azores Islands. publishersversion published

Voluntary and compulsory public statements of good conduct are frequently observed in the real world, such as the codes of good conduct for professionals or the requirements of academic journals to affirm that research was carried out ethically. In this study, we investigate what effect public statements of good conduct have on contribution behavior in a public goods experiment. Using a 'between-within subjects design' we identify three channels by which non-enforceable statements of intent are associated with higher levels of contributions to the public good. First, in a selection effect, socially-oriented participants are more likely in the experiment to make a public statement. Second, in a commitment effect, participants who make a public statement are contributing more to the public good. Third, in a coordination effect, aggregate contributions are higher when 'Statement-Makers' observe that also other group members make the statement. The latter explains why compulsory statements of good conduct are in our experiment more effective over time.

The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management (MFM) topics to encourage discussion and debate. This paper explores two new financing mechanisms that multilateral and bilateral development agencies could consider deploying to address problems of debt sustainability in small states. In this paper the authors provide an initial assessment of these proposals, informed by analysis of small state indebtedness and recent debt dynamics. Proposed financing instruments are predicated on assumptions that small states face high levels of indebtedness, and that reducing debt levels while increasing climate resilience could sustainably reduce such vulnerabilities. The authors find that levels of indebtedness vary widely across small states. Analysis of small state debt dynamics shows that small state debt accumulation has been driven by large primary and current account deficits and slow economic growth. Debt reduction from new mechanisms can only be expected to be sustainable, therefore, if countries simultaneously address the macroeconomic imbalances driving debt accumulation. The authors demonstrate that, while exposure to natural disasters is likely to have exacerbated economic management challenges in some small states, such exposures are unlikely to be the only important cause of indebtedness. The authors conclude that proposed new financing instruments can potentially help reduce small state debt burdens and gain fiscal space for climate adaptation but will not present a sustainable solution to problems of small state debt risks unless they involve macroeconomic and structural reforms to address the underlying imbalances driving rapid debt accumulation.

Doing Business sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency and labor market regulation. Doing Business 2016 presents the data for the labor market regulation indicators in an annex. The report does not present rankings of economies on labor market regulation indicators or include the topic in the aggregate distance to frontier score or ranking on the ease of doing business. This regional profile presents the Doing Business indicators for economies in European Union (EU). It also shows the regional average, the best performance globally for each indicator and data for the following comparator regions: East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), Europe and Central Asia (ECA), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Latin America and OECD High Income.. The data in this report are current as of June 1, 2015 (except for the paying taxes indicators, which cover the period January–December 2014).

Doing Business sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency and labor market regulation. Doing Business 2016 presents the data for the labor market regulation indicators in an annex. The report does not present rankings of economies on labor market regulation indicators or include the topic in the aggregate distance to frontier score or ranking on the ease of doing business. This regional profile presents the Doing Business indicators for economies in OECD High Income. It also shows the regional average, the best performance globally for each indicator and data for the following comparator regions: European Union (EU), East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), Europe and Central Asia (ECA), South Asia (SA) and Latin America.. The data in this report are current as of June 1, 2015 (except for the paying taxes indicators, which cover the period January–December 2014).

The images of flattened buildings and tent cities that dominated the news following the Haitian earthquake of January 12, 2010 triggered an emergency response from the global aid and development community. Foreign governments, multilateral organizations including the World Bank, and NGOs dramatically increased the flow of funding to the devastated country. The money helped pay for emergency relief but also for higher public investment spending that sought to repair damage and press ahead with development projects that had begun before the disaster. Six years later, the flow of aid is declining, and Haiti faces pivotal challenges: how to adapt to the reductions, raise more resources internally, spend more efficiently, and safeguard the fragile social gains it has achieved in a time of extreme hardship. The infrastructure Haiti has acquired in the recent surge of investment is something like a newly built house that lacks furniture and running water, it may look good from the outside but does little for its occupants. For the present, life remains a struggle for most of the country’s 10.4 million people. Thus in addition to growth, the country needs policies that will foster inclusiveness. Analysis and past experience suggest that two factors are key: human capital and political stability. To achieve this goal, Haiti will require a new outlook favoring fair, efficient government and social inclusiveness.

A country’s legal and judicial environment can help or hinder access to credit. In addition to the banking law governing the organization of the sector, the operations of credit institutions are subject to several laws. Four components of Malian business law are particularly relevant in assessing the position of creditors, the law on secured transactions, the law on collective proceedings, the law on information-sharing related to debtors (sometimes called the credit reporting law), and the law on collection and enforcement proceedings. If creditors cannot have confidence in their legal environment, they will be inclined to lend only to persons they know well. In this regard, it is telling to note that in Mali, the 50 biggest clients account for 39.3 percent of the credit extended by banks (although this percentage has fallen in recent times). Furthermore, access to credit remains a major constraint in the Malian business world. Although the reasons are not confined solely to the legal sphere, it is important to point out that, according to the 2010 Enterprise Survey, Malian enterprises cited access to credit as the main constraint hampering the business environment (43.9 percent of enterprises). The same study showed that in the case of loans involving a security right, the value of the assets pledged stood at 201.4 percent of the amount borrowed, reflecting the lack of confidence by banks in their ability to actually enforce their rights. In addition, in view of the fact that 58 percent of loans require a pledged asset which, in most instances, takes the form of immovable property, persons who do not own such assets are, de facto, shut out of the system and unable to seek credit.

The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia’s economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia’s evolving economy. This paper discusses about the economic conditions of Indonesia for the year 2015. Emerging market assets rebounded in October 2015 after the sharp losses recorded in August and September, when the uncertainty about the Chinese economic slowdown and the U.S. interest rate outlook was particularly high. Despite a more favorable market sentiment, capital flows to emerging economies have remained weak and borrowing costs relatively high. In addition to tight financing conditions, Indonesia faced subdued external demand for its exports in the near term and persistently low commodity prices over the medium run. In 2015, fire in Indonesia cost nearly twice that of reconstruction following the 2004 tsunami in Aceh. Agriculture and forestry have sustained losses and damages in trillions. Sustained exposure to haze could also lead to the volcano effect, i.e., a decrease in plant productivity in the short term due to limited sun exposure and a deleterious effect on plant physiology and photosynthesis. The recurring nature of Indonesia’s fire crisis is of particular concern. Another potential step in Indonesia’s new reform process was the country’s signaling its intention to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in the near future. Whether membership materializes or not, the agreement is likely to have a limited impact on trade, because import tariffs in member countries are already low and Indonesia has trade agreements with most of them.

More frequent incidences of violence in Afghanistan, as well as delays in the elections process and cabinet formation, continued to fuel uncertainty and affected investor confidence in 2014 and the first half of 2015. Economic growth slowed to 1.3 percent in 2014, down from 3.7 percent a year earlier. Unlike in previous years, agriculture did not contribute much to growth in 2014. Production levels were high for a third year in a row but did not supersede the strong output in 2013. Growth was mainly driven by services and a slight expansion of industries where an increase in construction activities outweighed lower production in manufacturing. Private investment activities showed strong signs of slowdown in 2014, evidenced by a drop of nearly 50 percent in new firm registrations since 2012. The National Unity Government has embarked on an ambitious reform agenda to revitalize the economy, tackle corruption, and improve investment climate. However, it will take time for these reforms to have an impact, and it is yet unclear how much they will mitigate the high risks stemming from the fragile security environment. Growing trends in security and pension and wage spending over the medium term require immediate attention. Afghanistan faces significant financing shortages for both civilian and security spending. Therefore, securing continued high levels of donor financing over the coming years is of critical importance for fiscal stability in the country. The fragile security environment and financing constraints, compounded by weak governance capacity, pose serious challenges to service delivery in Afghanistan. Any setback in reform implementation would further slowdown the pace of human capital accumulation in Afghanistan and reduce future prospects of growth and poverty reduction.

This paper builds on the findings of an earlier unpublished discussion paper titled ‘designing a model for networked carbon markets’, with its objective being to describe key elements of the mitigation value assessment process. The outcome of this paper will inform a model for the Networked Carbon Markets concept, to be prepared at a later date. The following section two acknowledges the subject matter of the NCM initiative, namely the diverse and heterogeneous trading schemes and other carbon pricing mechanisms that are being put in place by jurisdictions around the globe. As this is the subject of another World Bank paper, only a brief reference is included. Section three sets out a conceptual framework within which to consider the key elements described in the glossary of terms, addressed in section four and annexure ‘C’. This section also looks at different transaction scenarios, introducing the concepts of an international transaction unit and an index. Section five turns attention to the types of institutions that might be suitable to participate in the mitigation value assessment process, providing practical examples, and considering the types of expertise and tools those institutions might leverage. Section six considers options for regulatory supervision of the MV assessment process. Section seven looks in more detail at the relationship between mitigation value and the compliance value that might be attached to carbon assets and, in so doing, considers the role and function of the settlement platform. This section also considers the feasibility and potential benefits of an index. The concluding section eight looks at the next steps that might flow from this work.

Poland’s economic growth over the last 25 years has been spectacular. In that period, Poland has more than doubled its income per capita and became a European growth champion. It was the only EU country to avoid a recession in 2009. Its current GDP growth rate is strong. Poland seems to be on the brink of its new ‘golden age.’ Doing Business in Poland 2015 is the first subnational report of the Doing Business series in Poland. It measures business regulations and their enforcement from the perspective of a small to medium-size domestic firm. The idea is a simple one: if entrepreneurs spend fewer resources on regulatory burdens, they will have more time to devote to productive activities. If laws and regulations are clear, accessible, and transparent and, at the same time, enforceable before the courts, entrepreneurs will feel more confident to do business with people they don’t know, and expand their client and supplier network. The gap between the 18 cities benchmarked is significant. By adopting existing good practices found across the country in the four areas measured by this report, Poland would rank 24th out of 189 economies globally, eight positions higher than Poland’s current ranking according to Doing Business 2015, placing the country ahead of France and the Netherlands. Promoting convergence among regions and cities towards the top performers and thus improving the ease of doing business in the whole country is a challenge worth taking.

Egypt’s economic activity is gaining momentum. Growth accelerated to 5.6 percent during the first half of FY15, compared to a dismal 1.2 percent in the same period last year. The recent spike in economic activity reflects favorable base effects, but more importantly broad-based sector recovery, especially in tourism and manufacturing. On the demand side, growth continues to benefit from resilient consumption and government stimulus, supported by large financial inflows from Gulf States. In March 2015, Egypt held a high level Economic Development Conference, which culminated with the signing of sizeable investment deals worth US$36 billion, securing external financing worth US$24 billion, and the announcement of a new Gulf support package worth US$12.5 billion. This will boost the ongoing economic recovery and facilitate efforts to achieve macroeconomic stability. Annual growth is expected to double to 4.3 percent in FY15, and should increase further thereafter, compared to the muted growth of 2 percent during FY11-FY14. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted its article four consultation in November 2014 and the final report generally commended the authorities’ medium term plans while highlighting some risks including slippage in implementing reforms and a large external financing gap. Egypt’s main risk is to sustain the ongoing economic recovery which requires improved security. Notwithstanding the authorities’ ambitious fiscal consolidation plan, the deficit and debt aggregates will remain high and unsustainable. Further, there are risks of policy slippage as some details and the exact timing of policy measures are still missing and implementation capacity remains a challenge. Further, sustaining the reform pace requires efficient and well-targeted safety nets, which might take time to build. Finally, there is significant uncertainty regarding the financing of the announced mega-projects and the potential contingent liabilities that may arise.

Panama's economic growth has been at the top of the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region in recent years. The country s rapid growth has been largely pro-poor and translated into significant poverty reduction. The new Administration is well placed to tackle these challenges, with its commitment to maintaining an open and diversified economy and redressing social imbalances. Looking ahead, the country s main challenges are to maintain the current growth performance and ensure that its benefits are extended to all. The World Bank Group s (WBG) new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) seeks to support Panama s continued high growth, while ensuring inclusion and opportunities for marginalized groups, and bolstering resilience and sustainability. These themes are highlighted as priorities in the Government s 2014-2019 Strategic Development Plan (SDP) and in the WBG s Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD). The CPF seeks to maximize over a six-year period, the comparative advantages of the WBG, through packages of innovative public and private financing options based on cutting edge global knowledge and experience.

The explosive growth of green bonds in the capital markets is increasingly attracting attention from investors. This surge in interest has created a demand for accessible information on the green bond market. This primer was created in response to this demand and covers the principles of this relatively new financial instrument. The following intends to serve as a guide for those interested in better understanding the nature of green bonds. The content will aim to distinguish green bonds from other traditional financial instruments. It will also provide insight into the potential of green bonds to mobilize new sources of climate finance. This paper includes the following highlights: understanding bonds (chapter one); understanding green bonds (chapter two); and benefits and potential.

New international climate change agreement is the main target of Paris climate negotiations in Paris in December 2015. For the agreement, countries will give promises of emission reductions. Previously these promises have been referred as 'pledges' but, for Paris negotiations, countries will submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Three largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting countries (China, USA and EU) have given some indications of their INDCs. This report summarizes existing pledges and preliminary INDCs for Paris. Current pledges have varying scopes and coverages. Countries are urged to attach qualitative information to their INDCs, but the level of submitted details is unknown at the time of the writing. This report provides a framework to assess and compare the existing pledges and INDCs after country submissions. Report profiles and analyses 8 biggest GHG emitting countries: China, USA, EU, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil and Japan. The rest of the world is assessed more briefly. Each country profile includes emission statistics; summary of country's pledge and preliminary INDC when available; comparison of the GHG projection under current legislation and the country's pledge; GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 with different ambition levels; and calculated emission reduction indicators from these scenarios such as GHG per GDP, GHG per capita and renewable energy share. Based on these national scenarios, we compile three global emission reduction scenarios and compare these three scenarios to the 2 degree target pathways. The GHG development under the current legislation is at too high level compared to the 2 degree target, but ambitious GHG reductions may still be sufficient to reach 2 degree target. We need quick action to reach these emission low carbon pathways.

New international climate change agreement is the main target of Paris climate negotiations in Paris in December 2015. For the agreement, countries will give promises of emission reductions. Previously these promises have been referred as 'pledges' but, for Paris negotiations, countries will submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Three largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting countries (China, USA and EU) have given some indications of their INDCs. This report summarizes existing pledges and preliminary INDCs for Paris. Current pledges have varying scopes and coverages. Countries are urged to attach qualitative information to their INDCs, but the level of submitted details is unknown at the time of the writing. This report provides a framework to assess and compare the existing pledges and INDCs after country submissions. Report profiles and analyses 8 biggest GHG emitting countries: China, USA, EU, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil and Japan. The rest of the world is assessed more briefly. Each country profile includes emission statistics; summary of country's pledge and preliminary INDC when available; comparison of the GHG projection under current legislation and the country's pledge; GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 with different ambition levels; and calculated emission reduction indicators from these scenarios such as GHG per GDP, GHG per capita and renewable energy share. Based on these national scenarios, we compile three global emission reduction scenarios and compare these three scenarios to the 2 degree target pathways. The GHG development under the current legislation is at too high level compared to the 2 degree target, but ambitious GHG reductions may still be sufficient to reach 2 degree target. We need quick action to reach these emission low carbon pathways.

Although Moldova has made some important advances since the 2008 FSAP update, risks to banking sector stability have become severe. There is an urgent need, therefore, to improve transparency and governance in the banking system. Although the banking sector appears to be well capitalized and liquid, important pockets of weakness remain and vulnerabilities may be masked by fraud or misreporting. The two securities settlement systems are in need of updating, though plans to take this reform forward are not finalized. Weaknesses in the insolvency and creditor or debtor regime create uncertainty and may deter some stakeholders from engaging in financial transactions. Especially in light of the weaknesses described above and recent geopolitical uncertainties, urgent action is needed to address these and mitigate the risks to which the financial system appears to be exposed.

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to continue doing so through the first half of 2013. Economic growth in 2012 is estimated to have decelerated to 1.4 percent due to a weak second half of 2012 following a downturn in the security situation. The major fiscal expansion that took place in 2012 is creating fiscal challenges for 2013, particularly in the context of a promised increase in public salaries. The fiscal expansion, measured by the change in the central government s primary fiscal balance, reached a staggering 4.6 percentage points of GDP in 2012. The overall fiscal deficit reached 9.4 percent of GDP in 2012. Inflationary pressures rose despite tepid economic activity. Headline inflation accelerated notably in the second half of 2012. Core inflation has also been on an upward trend, reaching 5.3 percent by end-2012. Domestically, inflationary pressures can primarily be attributed to (i) increases in disposable income in early 2012 due to the increase in the minimum wage and public sector salaries cost of living adjustment; and (ii) a cumulative output gap that remains positive following above-potential growth in 2007-2010. The conflict in Syria, a country that is closely linked, both through historical, social and economic ties to Lebanon has created a humanitarian crisis of enormous scale. While Lebanon is to be commended for its openness to Syrian refugees, the conflict is severely and negatively impacting the Lebanese economy. The largest impact arises through the insecurity and uncertainty spillovers and touches at the heart of Lebanon s societal fabric.

This tenth edition of Doing Business sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting eleven areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency and employing workers. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 185 economies, from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, over time. The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes and identify what reforms have worked, where and why. This economy profile presents the Doing Business indicators for Hong Kong SAR, China. To allow useful comparison, it also provides data for other selected economies (comparator economies) for each indicator. The data in this report are current as of June 1, 2012 (except for the paying taxes indicators, which cover the period January - December 2011).

Afghanistan is in a state of transition which involves the handover of security responsibilities from international forces to the Afghan government. However, at present, Afghanistan's economy is growing strongly as a result of an exceptionally good harvest this year. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will most likely close the calendar year at 10 percent, a significant increase from last year's 5.8 percent. The services and construction sectors continue to grow strongly, driven mostly by continued high military spending and external aid. The good harvest has also brought Afghanistan to near food self-sufficiency and slowed inflation to 4.6 percent in July 2012 (y-o-y). Progress in the mining sector is clouded by uncertainty about a new mineral law. While investor interest in the sector is encouraging, gaps in the legal and regulatory framework of the sector do not provide sufficient confidence to investors to start operations or make firm commitments. A new low is in preparation but has also been heavily debated. Afghanistan's economic growth prospects for 2012 give cause for optimism. Although real GDP growth slowed, to around 7 percent in 2011 (from 8 percent the year before), due mainly to unfavorable weather and a poor harvest, the agriculture sector rebounded strongly in 2012 and is expected to boost economic growth to over 10 percent. Agriculture is an important but volatile component of economic growth.

Economic growth in West Bank and Gaza (WB&G) slowed in the first quarter (Q1) of 2012. The real growth rate is estimated to have reached 5.6 percent, more than three percentage points lower than the Q1 2011 growth figure and almost one percent lower than the growth forecast contained in the Palestinian Authority's (PA's) budget. This decline is attributed to a major slowdown in Gaza, where real growth decreased from 21.3 percent to 6 percent on a year-on-year basis. The slowdown in Gaza during Q1 of 2012 was mainly attributed to a major decline in the agriculture and fishing sector, which offset much of the growth witnessed in other sectors. This sector shrank by 43 percent in Q1 2012 due to frequent power outages resulting from the lack of fuel in Gaza. Nevertheless, other sectors in Gaza expanded and the highest growth levels were witnessed in the construction, and hotels and restaurants sectors. In the West Bank, growth in Q1 2012 was broadly unchanged from its 2011 level. Most of the growth was from an expansion of services, which contributed around 2.2 percentage points of the 5.4 percent total growth in Q1 2012. The recent slowdown in economic growth is also reflected in higher unemployment levels. Overall unemployment in WB&G was 20.9 percent in the second quarter of 2012 compared to 18.7 percent during the same period in 2011. A serious concern in WB&G is the high level of youth unemployment that is accompanied by low youth participation in the labor force.

As the Mongolian mortgage market grows rapidly, and the Government of Mongolia (GoM) pursues an ambitious social housing agenda, there is an urgent need for a holistic sector approach. The following three key areas require attention from policymakers: first, there is a need to better balance housing supply and demand, which requires the authorities to focus on prudent mortgage lending standards and supervision, as well as on provision of housing infrastructure and zoned land. Second, it will be important to ensure effective implementation of ongoing and planned public housing finance programs, with a focus on preventing mortgage market distortions in pricing, emphasizing robust planning and rigorous transparency and governance. Third, authorities should aim for better balance in the composition of mortgage funding, with a focus on improvement in the legal and regulatory framework for capital markets, as well as Mongolian Mortgage Corporation (MIK) governance, products and operations. The Mongolian mortgage market is exhibiting strong growth, with portfolio outstanding increasing by 190 percent to Mongolian Tughrik (MNT) 656 billion (US$482 million) between 2009 and end-2011. This represents 8 percent of 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) and 12 percent of the 2011 banking loan book. The sector is highly concentrated, with top 4 lenders accounting for 89 percent of the market, as well as spatially in and around Ulaanbaatar. Housing prices have risen sharply in the last two years, particularly in 2011, when the increase for the predominantly mortgaged market segment was over 36 percent. While mortgage lending growth rates are consistent with the overall growth of household credit, real estate prices significantly outpaced Consumer Price Index (CPI) and GDP growth in 2011. Currently non-performing loans (NPL) are very low due to the unseasoned mortgage portfolio; however, high debt-to-income (DTI) ratio levels may exacerbate future loan age-related and cyclical delinquency increases. Due in part to extreme climatic constraints, shortage of zoned and serviced land, and infrastructure bottlenecks, housing supply is severely constrained. Large-scale, publicly-funded, subsidized housing initiatives, such as the '100,000 Apartments' Program, need to be carefully planned, so that they cause minimal distortion to the broader housing finance market.