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BACKGROUND:Excess weight gain throughout adulthood can lead to adverse clinical outcomes and are influenced by complex factors that are difficult to measure in free-living individuals. Metabolite profiling offers an opportunity to systematically discover new predictors for weight gain that are relatively easy to measure compared to traditional approaches. METHODS AND RESULTS:Using baseline metabolite profiling data of middle-aged individuals from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS; n = 1,508), we identified 42 metabolites associated (p < 0.05) with longitudinal change in body mass index (BMI). We performed stepwise linear regression to select 8 of these metabolites to build a metabolite risk score (MRS) for predicting future weight gain. We replicated the MRS using data from the Mexico City Diabetes Study (MCDS; n = 768), in which one standard deviation increase in the MRS corresponded to ~0.03 increase in BMI (kg/m2) per year (i.e. ~0.09 kg/year for a 1.7 m adult). We observed that none of the available anthropometric, lifestyle, and glycemic variables fully account for the MRS prediction of weight gain. Surprisingly, we found the MRS to be strongly correlated with baseline insulin sensitivity in both cohorts and to be negatively predictive of T2D in MCDS. Genome-wide association study of the MRS identified 2 genome-wide (p < 5 × 10-8) and 5 suggestively (p < 1 × 10-6) significant loci, several of which have been previously linked to obesity-related phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS:We have constructed and validated a generalizable MRS for future weight gain that is an independent predictor distinct from several other known risk factors. The MRS captures a composite biological picture of weight gain, perhaps hinting at the anabolic effects of preserved insulin sensitivity. Future investigation is required to assess the relationships between MRS-predicted weight gain and other obesity-related diseases.

Aims. We investigated the relationship between circulating amino acid levels and obesity; to what extent weight loss followed by weight maintenance can correct amino acid abnormalities; and whether amino acids are related to weight loss.Methods. Amino acids associated with waist circumference (WC) and BMI were studied in 804 participants from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Cardiovascular Cohort (MDC-CC). Changes in amino acid levels were analyzed after weight loss and weight maintenance in 12 obese subjects and evaluated in a replication cohort (n=83).Results. Out of the eight identified BMI-associated amino acids from the MDC-CC, alanine, isoleucine, tyrosine, phenylalanine, and glutamate decreased after weight loss, while asparagine increased after weight maintenance. These changes were validated in the replication cohort. Scores that were constructed based on obesity-associated amino acids and known risk factors decreased in the ≥10% weight loss group with an associated change in BMI (R2=0.16–0.22,p<0.002), whereas the scores increased in the p<0.0004).Conclusions. Weight loss followed by weight maintenance leads to differential changes in amino acid levels associated with obesity. Treatment modifiable scores based on epidemiological and interventional data may be used to evaluate the potential metabolic benefit of weight loss.