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International audience; The terminal migration of Homo erectus in Southeast Asia during Early Pleistocene is cardinal to our comprehension of the evolution of the genus Homo. However, the limited consideration of the rapidly changing physical environment, together with controversial ages of hominin bearing sites, make it challenging to secure the necessary robust timeline. Here, we reappraise the first appearance datum of Javanese H. erectus by adding to a compilation of earlier estimates the most reliable age constraints based on cosmogenic nuclides 10 Be and 26 Al produced in situ. We find that H. erectus reached Java and dwelled at Sangiran, Java, at least ⇠1.4 Ma ago and more probably around 1.8 Ma. Using this age as a baseline, we develop a probabilistic approach to reconstruct their dispersal routes, coupling ecological movement simulations to landscape evolution models. We demonstrate that the hospitable terra firma conditions of Sundaland facilitated the prior dispersal of hominins to the edge of Java, where they conversely could not settle until the Javanese archipelago emerged from the sea and connected to Sundaland. We estimate a characteristic dispersal time of H. erectus across Sundaland of a few tens to hundreds kyrs, indicating that changes in their physical environment, whether climatic or physiographic, cannot be ignored. Our comprehensive reconstruction method to unravel the peopling timeline of SE Asia provides a novel framework to evaluate the evolution of early humans.

International audience; Natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, and heavy rainfall causing floods and debris avalanches are common phenomena in many tropical settings, including the island of Sumatra, located in the Indonesian archipelago. To enhance our understanding of the recurrence of these often destructive events, we studied the sedimentary infill of two lakes in the Padang highlands, West Sumatra. This includes Lake Singkarak, a tectonically-formed lake located on a step-over of a major strike-slip fault system (the Sumatran Fault), and Lake Maninjau, a caldera lake. Both lakes are located -300 km from the Sunda subduction trench and surrounded by steep slopes and a chain of active volcanoes. Hence, considering their unique tectonic setting, these lakes may potentially record a wide range of natural hazards that affect the region. A combination of seismic-reflection pro¬files and short sediment cores revealed that both lakes indeed record various types of natural hazards, each with their own sedimentary response to a specific type of event. Lake Singkarak can be used to study past floods and major debris avalanches in addition to high-magnitude megathrust earthquakes, while traces of past intraplate earthquakes have been identified in both lakes. Furthermore, we argue that Lake Singkarak is an ideal recorder of volcanic activity in the region, while Lake Maninjau itself can pose a volcanic hazard toits surroundings as demonstrated by potential activity of the volcano below the lake

The 25 February 2008 Mw 7.2 North Pagai earthquake partially ruptured the middle section of the Mentawai patch of the Sunda megathrust, offshore Sumatra. The patch has been forecast to generate a great earthquake in the next few decades. However, in the current cycle the patch has so far broken in a sequence of partial ruptures, one of which was the 2008 event, illustrating the potential of the patch to generate a spectrum of earthquake sizes. We estimate the coseismic slip distribution of the 2008 event by jointly inverting coseismic offsets from GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar. We then estimate afterslip with 5.6 years of cumulative GPS displacements. Our results suggest that the estimated afterslip partially overlaps the coseismic rupture. The overlap of coseismic rupture and afterslip can be explained conceptually by a simple rate‐and‐state model where the degree of overlapping is controlled by the dynamic weakening and the critical nucleation size in the velocity‐weakening area. Comparing our rate‐and‐state model results with our geodetic inversion results, we suggest that the part of the coseismic rupture that does not overlap with the afterslip may represent a velocity‐weakening region, while the overlapping part may represent a velocity‐strengthening region. NRF (Natl Research Foundation, S’pore) MOE (Min. of Education, S’pore) Published version

The 12 September 2007 Mw 8.4 Bengkulu earthquake in Sumatra marked the first in a modern series of large earthquakes along the Mentawai section of the Sunda megathrust. Understanding the spatial distribution of coseismic slip and ensuing afterslip is important for assessing seismic hazard in neighboring unruptured regions of the megathrust. We reestimate the spatial distribution of coseismic slip during this earthquake with improved coseismic offsets from the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr) and estimate afterslip following this earthquake with SuGAr postseismic time series spanning ∼6.3 years after the earthquake. We invert for the spatiotemporal distribution of afterslip with the principal component analysis‐based inversion method (PCAIM), and we take into account viscoelastic deformation by incorporating into the inversion the estimation of strain within ductile deforming blocks located at asthenospheric depths. Our results suggest cumulative afterslip concentrated within, updip, and downdip of the 2007 coseismic rupture area and shallow afterslip that borders and overlaps the 2010 Mw 7.8 Mentawai earthquake rupture zone. The cumulative contribution of stress changes due to the coseismic event and the ensuing afterslip likely increased strain rates in the shallow portion of the megathrust adjacent to the Mentawai earthquake rupture area, potentially promoting its rupture in 2010. NRF (Natl Research Foundation, S’pore) MOE (Min. of Education, S’pore) Published version

The 2010 Mw 7.8 Mentawai tsunami earthquake marks one of the first tsunami earthquakes to have postseismic deformation observed by geodetic instruments. The Sumatran GPS Array has recorded the postseismic deformation following this event continuously for >5 years. The spatiotemporal evolution of the postseismic deformation is well explained by velocity-strengthening frictional sliding on the Sunda megathrust. Our results show that the 2010 afterslip progressed downdip relative to the 2010 coseismic rupture. The southeastern portion of the afterslip region overlaps the area that slipped during the main shock and afterslip of the 2007 Mw 8.4 Bengkulu earthquake, while the northwestern portion slipped an area without recent large earthquakes. By incorporating pre-earthquake stress conditions into quasi-dynamic models, we demonstrate that the preceding cumulative slip from the 2007 sequence might have caused a ∼0.1 MPa difference in pre-earthquake Coulomb stress between the southeastern and northwestern portions of the afterslip region. Published version

We have compiled the first self-consistent GPS-based earthquake catalog for the Sumatran plate boundary. Using continuous daily position time series from the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr), we document 30 earthquakes which occurred within or outside the SuGAr network from August 2002 through the end of 2013, and we provide estimates of both vertical and horizontal coseismic offsets associated with 1 M9.2, 3 M8, 6 M7, 19 M6, and 1 M5.9 earthquakes, as well as postseismic decay amplitudes and times associated with 9 M > 7 earthquakes and 1 M6.7 earthquake. For most of the previously studied earthquakes, our geodetic catalog provides more complete coseismic displacements than those published, showing consistent patterns of motion across a large range of distances. For many of the moderate to large earthquakes, we publish their coseismic displacements for the first time, providing new constraints on their locations and slip distributions. For the postseismic time series, we have tackled the challenge of separating the signals for individual events from the overlapping effects of many other earthquakes. As a result, we have obtained either new or much longer time series than previously published. Based on our long time series, we find logarithmic decay times ranging from several days to more than 20 years, and sometimes a second decay time is needed, suggesting that when studying large to great Sumatran earthquakes, we need to consider multiple postseismic mechanisms. Our geodetic catalog provides rich spatial and temporal Sumatran earthquake cycle information for future studies of the physics and dynamics of the Sumatran plate boundary. Published version

We improve constraints on the slip distribution and geometry of faults involved in the complex, multisegment, Mw 8.6 April 2012 Wharton Basin earthquake sequence by joint inversion of high-rate GPS data from the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr), teleseismic observations, source time functions from broadband surface waves, and far-field static GPS displacements. This sequence occurred under the Indian Ocean, ∼400 km offshore Sumatra. The events are extraordinary for their unprecedented rupture of multiple cross faults, deep slip, large strike-slip magnitude, and potential role in the formation of a discrete plate boundary between the Indian and Australian plates. The SuGAr recorded static displacements of up to ∼22 cm, along with time-varying arrivals from the complex faulting, which indicate that the majority of moment release was on young, WNW trending, right-lateral faults, counter to initial expectations that an old, lithospheric, NNE trending fracture zone played the primary role. The new faults are optimally oriented to accommodate the present-day stress field. Not only was the greatest moment released on the younger faults, but it was these that sustained very deep slip and high stress drop (>20 MPa). The rupture may have extended to depths of up to 60 km, suggesting that the oceanic lithosphere in the northern Wharton Basin may be cold and strong enough to sustain brittle failure at such depths. Alternatively, the rupture may have occurred with an alternative weakening mechanism, such as thermal runaway. Published version

The outer-arc islands of western Sumatra rise during great megathrust earthquakes, due to large slip on the underlying megathrust. In contrast, the islands subsided up to a few centimeters during the recent tsunamigenic earthquake of October 2010, due to slip far updip, near the trench. Coral microatolls on one of the islands recorded a much larger subsidence, at least 35 cm, during an event in approximately A.D. 1314. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 event, that are consistent with this large amount of subsidence. Sea level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region's exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards. Published version

To gain insight into the longevity of subduction zone segmentation, we use coral microatolls to examine an 1100-year record of large earthquakes across the boundary of the great 2004 and 2005 Sunda megathrust ruptures. Simeulue, a 100-km-long island off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, straddles this boundary: northern Simeulue was uplifted in the 2004 earthquake, whereas southern Simeulue rose in 2005. Northern Simeulue corals reveal that predecessors of the 2004 earthquake occurred in the 10th century AD, in AD 1394±2, and in AD 1450±3. Corals from southern Simeulue indicate that none of the major uplifts inferred on northern Simeulue in the past 1100 years extended to southern Simeulue. The two largest uplifts recognized at a south-central Simeulue site—around AD 1422 and in 2005—involved little or no uplift of northern Simeulue. The distribution of uplift and strong shaking during a historical earthquake in 1861 suggests the 1861 rupture area was also restricted to south of central Simeulue, as in 2005. The strikingly different histories of the two adjacent patches demonstrate that this boundary has persisted as an impediment to rupture through at least seven earthquakes in the past 1100 years. This implies that the rupture lengths, and hence sizes, of at least some future great earthquakes and tsunamis can be forecast. These microatolls also provide insight into megathrust behavior between earthquakes, revealing sudden and substantial changes in interseismic strain accumulation rates. Published version

The Mw 7.8 October 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia, earthquake was a “tsunami earthquake,” a rare type of earthquake that generates a tsunami much larger than expected based on the seismicmagnitude. It produced a locally devastating tsunami, with runup commonly in excess of 6 m. We examine this event using a combination of high-rate GPS data, from instruments located on the nearby islands, and a tsunami field survey. The GPS displacement time series are deficient in high-frequency energy, and show small coseismic displacements (16 m. Our modeling results show that the combination of the small GPS displacements and large tsunami can only be explained by high fault slip at very shallow depths, far from the islands and close to the oceanic trench. Inelastic uplift of trench sediments likely contributed to the size of the tsunami. Recent results for the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoko-Oki earthquake have also shown shallow fault slip, but the results from our study, which involves a smaller earthquake, provide much stronger constraints on how shallow the rupture can be, with the majority of slip for the Mentawai earthquake occurring at depths of

We link geodetic data from the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr) and earthquake focal mechanisms to show that a 900-km long backthrust, arising from the Sunda megathrust offshore of Sumatra, has recently become active following the series of great megathrust earthquakes of this past decade. Shallow failure of the Mentawai backthrust explains coseismic displacements during moderate-earthquake clusters in 2005 and 2009. These two clusters represent the first activity on the backthrust in more than 30 years. Existing paleogeodetic evidence of vertical deformation in past centuries is too sparse to characterize earlier major activity, but leaves open the possibility of historic great backthrust earthquakes. Our geodetic evidence for rupture of the Mentawai backthrust during the two recent earthquake clusters suggests that this large fault may well pose an additional seismic and tsunami hazard to the coastal communities of central Sumatra. Published version

not available in full text.

Rupture of the Sunda megathrust on 26 December 2004 produced broad regions of uplift and subsidence. We define the pivot line separating these regions as a first step in defining the lateral extent and the downdip limit of rupture during that great Mw ≈ 9.2 earthquake. In the region of the Andaman and Nicobar islands we rely exclusively on the interpretation of satellite imagery and a tidal model. At the southern limit of the great rupture we rely principally on field measurements of emerged coral microatolls. Uplift extends from the middle of Simeulue Island, Sumatra, at ∼2.5°N, to Preparis Island, Myanmar (Burma), at ∼14.9°N. Thus the rupture is ∼1600 km long. The distance from the pivot line to the trench varies appreciably. The northern and western Andaman Islands rose, whereas the southern and eastern portion of the islands subsided. The Nicobar Islands and the west coast of Aceh province, Sumatra, subsided. Tilt at the southern end of the rupture is steep; the distance from 1.5 m of uplift to the pivot line is just 60 km. Our method of using satellite imagery to recognize changes in elevation relative to sea surface height and of using a tidal model to place quantitative bounds on coseismic uplift or subsidence is a novel approach that can be adapted to other forms of remote sensing and can be applied to other subduction zones in tropical regions. Published version

Large uplifts and tilts occurred on the Sumatran outer arc islands between 0.5° and 3.3°S during great historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833, as judged from relative sea level changes recorded by annually banded coral heads. Coral data for these two earthquakes are most complete along a 160-km length of the Mentawai islands between 3.2° and 2°S. Uplift there was as great as 0.8 m in 1797 and 2.8 m in 1833. Uplift in 1797 extended 370 km, between 3.2° and 0.5°S. The pattern and magnitude of uplift imply megathrust ruptures corresponding to moment magnitudes (Mw) in the range 8.5 to 8.7. The region of uplift in 1833 ranges from 2° to at least 3.2°S and, judging from historical reports of shaking and tsunamis, perhaps as far as 5°S. The patterns and magnitude of uplift and tilt in 1833 are similar to those experienced farther north, between 0.5° and 3°N, during the giant Nias-Simeulue megathrust earthquake of 2005; the outer arc islands rose as much as 3 m and tilted toward the mainland. Elastic dislocation forward modeling of the coral data yields megathrust ruptures with moment magnitudes ranging from 8.6 to 8.9. Sparse accounts at Padang, along the mainland west coast at latitude 1°S, imply tsunami runups of at least 5 m in 1797 and 3–4 m in 1833. Tsunamis simulated from the pattern of coral uplift are roughly consistent with these reports. The tsunami modeling further indicates that the Indian Ocean tsunamis of both 1797 and 1833, unlike that of 2004, were directed mainly south of the Indian subcontinent. Between about 0.7° and 2.1°S, the lack of vintage 1797 and 1833 coral heads in the intertidal zone demonstrates that interseismic submergence has now nearly equals coseismic emergence that accompanied those earthquakes. The interseismic strains accumulated along this reach of the megathrust have thus approached or exceeded the levels relieved in 1797 and 1833. Published version