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The use of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, originally developed to describe disease morbidity, is commonly used to predict in-hospital mortality. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many protocols for crisis standards of care used the SOFA score to select patients to be deprioritized due to a low likelihood of survival. A prior study found that age outperformed the SOFA score for mortality prediction in patients with COVID-19, but was limited to a small cohort of intensive care unit (ICU) patients and did not address whether their findings were unique to patients with COVID-19. Moreover, it is not known how well these measures perform across races. In this retrospective study, we compare the performance of age and SOFA score in predicting in-hospital mortality across two cohorts: a cohort of 2,648 consecutive adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 who were admitted to a large academic health system in the northeastern United States over a 4-month period in 2020 and a cohort of 75,601 patients admitted to one of 335 ICUs in the eICU database between 2014 and 2015. We used age and the maximum SOFA score as predictor variables in separate univariate logistic regression models for in-hospital mortality and calculated area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AU-ROCs) and area under precision-recall curves (AU-PRCs) for each predictor in both cohorts. Among the COVID-19 cohort, age (AU-ROC 0.795, 95% CI 0.762, 0.828) had a significantly better discrimination than SOFA score (AU-ROC 0.679, 95% CI 0.638, 0.721) for mortality prediction. Conversely, age (AU-ROC 0.628 95% CI 0.608, 0.628) underperformed compared to SOFA score (AU-ROC 0.735, 95% CI 0.726, 0.745) in non-COVID-19 ICU patients in the eICU database. There was no difference between Black and White COVID-19 patients in performance of either age or SOFA Score. Our findings bring into question the utility of SOFA score-based resource allocation in COVID-19 crisis standards of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Artificial intelligence (AI) detects heart disease from images of electrocardiograms (ECGs). However, traditional supervised learning is limited by the need for large amounts of labeled data. We report the development of Biometric Contrastive Learning (BCL), a self-supervised pretraining approach for label-efficient deep learning on ECG images. Materials and Methods Using pairs of ECGs from 78 288 individuals from Yale (2000-2015), we trained a convolutional neural network to identify temporally separated ECG pairs that varied in layouts from the same patient. We fine-tuned BCL-pretrained models to detect atrial fibrillation (AF), gender, and LVEF < 40%, using ECGs from 2015 to 2021. We externally tested the models in cohorts from Germany and the United States. We compared BCL with ImageNet initialization and general-purpose self-supervised contrastive learning for images (simCLR). Results While with 100% labeled training data, BCL performed similarly to other approaches for detecting AF/Gender/LVEF < 40% with an AUROC of 0.98/0.90/0.90 in the held-out test sets, it consistently outperformed other methods with smaller proportions of labeled data, reaching equivalent performance at 50% of data. With 0.1% data, BCL achieved AUROC of 0.88/0.79/0.75, compared with 0.51/0.52/0.60 (ImageNet) and 0.61/0.53/0.49 (simCLR). In external validation, BCL outperformed other methods even at 100% labeled training data, with an AUROC of 0.88/0.88 for Gender and LVEF < 40% compared with 0.83/0.83 (ImageNet) and 0.84/0.83 (simCLR). Discussion and Conclusion A pretraining strategy that leverages biometric signatures of different ECGs from the same patient enhances the efficiency of developing AI models for ECG images. This represents a major advance in detecting disorders from ECG images with limited labeled data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundHealth coaching is an intervention process for driving behavior change through goal-setting, education, encouragement, and feedback on health-related behaviors. Telehealth systems that include health coaching and remote monitoring are making inroads in managing chronic conditions and may be especially suited for older populations. ObjectiveThis literature review aimed to investigate the current status of health coaching interventions incorporating telehealth technology and the associated effectiveness of this intervention to deliver health care with an emphasis on older adults (aged 65 and older). MethodsA literature review was conducted to identify the research conducted on health coaching combined with remote monitoring for delivering health care to older adults. The Ovid MEDLINE and CINAHL databases were queried using a combination of relevant search terms (including middle aged, aged, older adult, elderly, health coaching, and wellness coaching). The search retrieved 196 papers published from January 2010 to September 2019 in English. Following a systematic review process, the titles and abstracts of the papers retrieved were screened for applicability to health coaching for older adults to define a subset for further review. Papers were excluded if the studied population did not include older adults. The full text of the 42 papers in this subset was then reviewed, and 13 papers related to health coaching combined with remote monitoring for older adults were included in this review. ResultsOf the 13 studies reviewed, 10 found coaching supported by telehealth technology to provide effective outcomes. Effectiveness outcomes assessed in the studies included hospital admissions/re-admissions, mortality, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level, body weight, blood pressure, physical activity level, fatigue, quality of life, and user acceptance of the coaching program and technology. ConclusionsTelehealth systems that include health coaching have been implemented in older populations as a viable intervention method for managing chronic conditions with mixed results. Health coaching combined with telehealth may be an effective solution for providing health care to older adults. However, health coaching is predominantly performed by human coaches with limited use of technology to augment or replace the human coach. The opportunity exists to expand health coaching to include automated coaching.

Background and Aims Early diagnosis of aortic stenosis (AS) is critical to prevent morbidity and mortality but requires skilled examination with Doppler imaging. This study reports the development and validation of a novel deep learning model that relies on two-dimensional (2D) parasternal long axis videos from transthoracic echocardiography without Doppler imaging to identify severe AS, suitable for point-of-care ultrasonography. Methods and results In a training set of 5257 studies (17 570 videos) from 2016 to 2020 [Yale-New Haven Hospital (YNHH), Connecticut], an ensemble of three-dimensional convolutional neural networks was developed to detect severe AS, leveraging self-supervised contrastive pretraining for label-efficient model development. This deep learning model was validated in a temporally distinct set of 2040 consecutive studies from 2021 from YNHH as well as two geographically distinct cohorts of 4226 and 3072 studies, from California and other hospitals in New England, respectively. The deep learning model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.978 (95% CI: 0.966, 0.988) for detecting severe AS in the temporally distinct test set, maintaining its diagnostic performance in geographically distinct cohorts [0.952 AUROC (95% CI: 0.941, 0.963) in California and 0.942 AUROC (95% CI: 0.909, 0.966) in New England]. The model was interpretable with saliency maps identifying the aortic valve, mitral annulus, and left atrium as the predictive regions. Among non-severe AS cases, predicted probabilities were associated with worse quantitative metrics of AS suggesting an association with various stages of AS severity. Conclusion This study developed and externally validated an automated approach for severe AS detection using single-view 2D echocardiography, with potential utility for point-of-care screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Nonexercise algorithms are cost-effective methods to estimate cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), but the existing models have limitations in generalizability and predictive power. This study aims to improve the nonexercise algorithms using machine learning (ML) methods and data from US national population surveys. Materials and Methods We used the 1999–2004 data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max), measured through a submaximal exercise test, served as the gold standard measure for CRF in this study. We applied multiple ML algorithms to build 2 models: a parsimonious model using commonly available interview and examination data, and an extended model additionally incorporating variables from Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA) and standard laboratory tests in clinical practice. Key predictors were identified using Shapley additive explanation (SHAP). Results Among the 5668 NHANES participants in the study population, 49.9% were women and the mean (SD) age was 32.5 years (10.0). The light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) had the best performance across multiple types of supervised ML algorithms. Compared with the best existing nonexercise algorithms that could be applied to the NHANES, the parsimonious LightGBM model (RMSE: 8.51 ml/kg/min [95% CI: 7.73–9.33]) and the extended LightGBM model (RMSE: 8.26 ml/kg/min [95% CI: 7.44–9.09]) significantly reduced the error by 15% and 12% (P  < .001 for both), respectively. Discussion The integration of ML and national data source presents a novel approach for estimating cardiovascular fitness. This method provides valuable insights for cardiovascular disease risk classification and clinical decision-making, ultimately leading to improved health outcomes. Conclusion Our nonexercise models provide improved accuracy in estimating VO2 max within NHANES data as compared to existing nonexercise algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The current acute kidney injury (AKI) risk prediction model for patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) from the American College of Cardiology (ACC) National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) employed regression techniques. This study aimed to evaluate whether models using machine learning techniques could significantly improve AKI risk prediction after PCI. Methods and findings We used the same cohort and candidate variables used to develop the current NCDR CathPCI Registry AKI model, including 947,091 patients who underwent PCI procedures between June 1, 2009, and June 30, 2011. The mean age of these patients was 64.8 years, and 32.8% were women, with a total of 69,826 (7.4%) AKI events. We replicated the current AKI model as the baseline model and compared it with a series of new models. Temporal validation was performed using data from 970,869 patients undergoing PCIs between July 1, 2016, and March 31, 2017, with a mean age of 65.7 years; 31.9% were women, and 72,954 (7.5%) had AKI events. Each model was derived by implementing one of two strategies for preprocessing candidate variables (preselecting and transforming candidate variables or using all candidate variables in their original forms), one of three variable-selection methods (stepwise backward selection, lasso regularization, or permutation-based selection), and one of two methods to model the relationship between variables and outcome (logistic regression or gradient descent boosting). The cohort was divided into different training (70%) and test (30%) sets using 100 different random splits, and the performance of the models was evaluated internally in the test sets. The best model, according to the internal evaluation, was derived by using all available candidate variables in their original form, permutation-based variable selection, and gradient descent boosting. Compared with the baseline model that uses 11 variables, the best model used 13 variables and achieved a significantly better area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.752 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.749-0.754) versus 0.711 (95% CI 0.708-0.714), a significantly better Brier score of 0.0617 (95% CI 0.0615-0.0618) versus 0.0636 (95% CI 0.0634-0.0638), and a better calibration slope of observed versus predicted rate of 1.008 (95% CI 0.988-1.028) versus 1.036 (95% CI 1.015-1.056). The best model also had a significantly wider predictive range (25.3% versus 21.6%, p < 0.001) and was more accurate in stratifying AKI risk for patients. Evaluated on a more contemporary CathPCI cohort (July 1, 2015-March 31, 2017), the best model consistently achieved significantly better performance than the baseline model in AUC (0.785 versus 0.753), Brier score (0.0610 versus 0.0627), calibration slope (1.003 versus 1.062), and predictive range (29.4% versus 26.2%). The current study does not address implementation for risk calculation at the point of care, and potential challenges include the availability and accessibility of the predictors. Conclusions Machine learning techniques and data-driven approaches resulted in improved prediction of AKI risk after PCI. The results support the potential of these techniques for improving risk prediction models and identification of patients who may benefit from risk-mitigation strategies., Author(s): Chenxi Huang 1, Karthik Murugiah 2, Shiwani Mahajan 1, Shu-Xia Li 1, Sanket S. Dhruva 3,4, Julian S. Haimovich 5, Yongfei Wang 1, Wade L. Schulz 1,6, Jeffrey M. [...]

Estimating physiological parameters - such as blood pressure (BP) - from raw sensor data captured by noninvasive, wearable devices rely on either burdensome manual feature extraction designed by domain experts to identify key waveform characteristics and phases, or deep learning (DL) models that require extensive data collection. We propose the Data-Driven Guided Attention (DDGA) framework to optimize DL models to learn features supported by the underlying physiology and physics of the captured waveforms, with minimal expert annotation. With only a single template waveform cardiac cycle and its labelled fiducial points, we leverage dynamic time warping (DTW) to annotate all other training samples. DL models are trained to first identify them before estimating BP to inform them which regions of the input represent key phases of the cardiac cycle, yet we still grant the flexibility for DL to determine the optimal feature set from them. In this study, we evaluate DDGA's improvements to a BP estimation task for three prominent DL-based architectures with two datasets: 1) the MIMIC-III waveform dataset with ample training data and 2) a bio-impedance (Bio-Z) dataset with less than abundant training data. Experiments show that DDGA improves personalized BP estimation models by an average 8.14% in root mean square error (RMSE) when there is an imbalanced distribution of target values in a training set and improves model generalizability by an average 4.92% in RMSE when testing estimation of BP value ranges not previously seen in training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study describes the degree to which blood draws occurred among hospitalized patients during traditional sleep hours and investigates trends over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: New methods such as machine learning techniques have been increasingly used to enhance the performance of risk predictions for clinical decision-making. However, commonly reported performance metrics may not be sufficient to capture the advantages of these newly proposed models for their adoption by health care professionals to improve care. Machine learning models often improve risk estimation for certain subpopulations that may be missed by these metrics.Methods and Results: This article addresses the limitations of commonly reported metrics for performance comparison and proposes additional metrics. Our discussions cover metrics related to overall performance, discrimination, calibration, resolution, reclassification, and model implementation. Models for predicting acute kidney injury after percutaneous coronary intervention are used to illustrate the use of these metrics.Conclusions: We demonstrate that commonly reported metrics may not have sufficient sensitivity to identify improvement of machine learning models and propose the use of a comprehensive list of performance metrics for reporting and comparing clinical risk prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of the macronutrients protein and carbohydrate (CHO) in a mixed meal is known to affect each other's digestion, absorption, and subsequent metabolism. While the effect of the amount of dietary protein and fat on the glycemic response is well studied, the ability of postprandial plasma amino acid patterns to predict the meal composition is unknown. To study the postprandial plasma amino acid patterns in relation to the protein, CHO, and fat content of different mixed meals and to investigate if these patterns can predict the macronutrient meal composition. Ten older adults were given 9 meals with 3 different levels (low, medium, and high) of protein, CHO, and fat in different combinations, taking the medium content as that of a standardized western meal. We monitored the postprandial plasma response for amino acids, glucose, insulin, and triglycerides for 8 h and the areas under the curve (AUC) were subsequently calculated. Multiple regression analysis was performed to determine if amino acid patterns could predict the meal composition. Increasing meal CHO content reduced the postprandial plasma response of several amino acids including all branched chain amino acids (BCAA) (leucine; q < 0.0001, isoleucine; q = 0.0035, valine; q = 0.0022). The plasma BCAA patterns after the meal significantly predicted the meal's CHO content (leucine; p < 0.0001, isoleucine; p = 0.0003, valine; p = 0.0008) along with aspartate (p < 0.0001), tyrosine (p < 0.0001), methionine (p = 0.0159) and phenylalanine (p = 0.0332). Plasma citrulline predicted best the fat content of the meal (p = 0.0024). The postprandial plasma BCAA patterns are lower with increasing meal CHO content and are strong predictors of a mixed meal protein and CHO composition, as are plasma citrulline for the fat content. We hypothesize that postprandial plasma amino acid concentrations can be used to predict the meal's macronutrient composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Intraoperative data may improve models predicting postoperative events. We evaluated the effect of incorporating intraoperative variables to the existing preoperative model on the predictive performance of the model for coronary artery bypass graft.Methods: We analyzed 378 572 isolated coronary artery bypass graft cases performed across 1083 centers, using the national Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database between 2014 and 2016. Outcomes were operative mortality, 5 postoperative complications, and composite representation of all events. We fitted models by logistic regression or extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). For each modeling approach, we used preoperative only, intraoperative only, or pre+intraoperative variables. We developed 84 models with unique combinations of the 3 variable sets, 2 variable selection methods, 2 modeling approaches, and 7 outcomes. Each model was tested in 20 iterations of 70:30 stratified random splitting into development/testing samples. Model performances were evaluated on the testing dataset using the C statistic, area under the precision-recall curve, and calibration metrics, including the Brier score.Results: The mean patient age was 65.3 years, and 24.7% were women. Operative mortality, excluding intraoperative death, occurred in 1.9%. In all outcomes, models that considered pre+intraoperative variables demonstrated significantly improved Brier score and area under the precision-recall curve compared with models considering pre or intraoperative variables alone. XGBoost without external variable selection had the best C statistics, Brier score, and area under the precision-recall curve values in 4 of the 7 outcomes (mortality, renal failure, prolonged ventilation, and composite) compared with logistic regression models with or without variable selection. Based on the calibration plots, risk restratification for mortality showed that the logistic regression model underestimated the risk in 11 114 patients (9.8%) and overestimated in 12 005 patients (10.6%). In contrast, the XGBoost model underestimated the risk in 7218 patients (6.4%) and overestimated in 0 patients (0%).Conclusions: In isolated coronary artery bypass graft, adding intraoperative variables to preoperative variables resulted in improved predictions of all 7 outcomes. Risk models based on XGBoost may provide a better prediction of adverse events to guide clinical care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Personal tracking algorithms for health monitoring are critical for understanding an individual's life-style and personal choices in natural environments (NE). In order to train such tracking algorithms in NE, however, annotated data is needed, particularly when tracking a variety of activities of daily living. These algorithms are often trained in laboratory settings, with expectations that they will perform equally well in NE, which is often not the case; they must be trained on annotated data collected in NE and wearable computers provide opportunities to collect such data, though the process is burdensome. Therefore, we propose an intelligent scoring algorithm that limits the number of user annotation requests through the confidence of predictions generated by the tracking algorithm and automatically annotating data with high confidence. We enhance our scoring algorithm by providing improvements in our tracking algorithm by obtaining context data from nearable sensors. Each specific context of a user bounds the set of activities that can likely occur, which in turn improves the tracking algorithm and confidence. Finally, we propose a hierarchical annotation approach, where repeated use allows us to ask for detailed annotations that differentiate fine-grained differences in ways individuals perform activities. We validate our approach in a diet monitoring case study. We vary the number of annotations requested per day to evaluate model accuracy; we improve accuracy in NE by 8% when restricting requests to 20 per day and improve F1-score of activities by 11% with hierarchical annotations, while discussing implementation, accuracy, and power consumption in real-time use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Although intravascular microaxial left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) provide greater hemodynamic support as compared with intra-aortic balloon pumps (IABPs), little is known about clinical outcomes associated with intravascular microaxial LVAD use in clinical practice.Objective: To examine outcomes among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock treated with mechanical circulatory support (MCS) devices.Design, Setting, and Participants: A propensity-matched registry-based retrospective cohort study of patients with AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock undergoing PCI between October 1, 2015, and December 31, 2017, who were included in data from hospitals participating in the CathPCI and the Chest Pain-MI registries, both part of the American College of Cardiology's National Cardiovascular Data Registry. Patients receiving an intravascular microaxial LVAD were matched with those receiving IABP on demographics, clinical history, presentation, infarct location, coronary anatomy, and clinical laboratory data, with final follow-up through December 31, 2017.Exposures: Hemodynamic support, categorized as intravascular microaxial LVAD use only, IABP only, other (such as use of a percutaneous extracorporeal ventricular assist system, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or a combination of MCS device use), or medical therapy only.Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and in-hospital major bleeding.Results: Among 28 304 patients undergoing PCI for AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock, the mean (SD) age was 65.0 (12.6) years, 67.0% were men, 81.3% had an ST-elevation myocardial infarction, and 43.3% had cardiac arrest. Over the study period among patients with AMI, an intravascular microaxial LVAD was used in 6.2% of patients, and IABP was used in 29.9%. Among 1680 propensity-matched pairs, there was a significantly higher risk of in-hospital death associated with use of an intravascular microaxial LVAD (45.0%) vs with an IABP (34.1% [absolute risk difference, 10.9 percentage points {95% CI, 7.6-14.2}; P < .001) and also higher risk of in-hospital major bleeding (intravascular microaxial LVAD [31.3%] vs IABP [16.0%]; absolute risk difference, 15.4 percentage points [95% CI, 12.5-18.2]; P < .001). These associations were consistent regardless of whether patients received a device before or after initiation of PCI.Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients undergoing PCI for AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock from 2015 to 2017, use of an intravascular microaxial LVAD compared with IABP was associated with higher adjusted risk of in-hospital death and major bleeding complications, although study interpretation is limited by the observational design. Further research may be needed to understand optimal device choice for these patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in engineering and health science have brought a significant improvement in health care and increased life expectancy. As a result, there has been a substantial growth in the number of older adults around the globe, and that number is rising. According to a United Nations report, between 2015 and 2030, the number of adults over the age of 60 is projected to grow by 56%, with the total reaching nearly 2.1 billion by the year 2050 [1]. Because of this, the cost of traditional health care continues to grow proportionally. Additionally, a significant portion of the elderly have multiple, simultaneous chronic conditions and require specialized geriatric care. However, the required number of geriatricians to provide essential care for the existing population is four times lower than the actual number of practitioners, and the demandsupply gap continues to grow [2]. All of these factors have created new challenges in providing suitable and affordable care for the elderly to live independently, more commonly known as aging in place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The current ability to predict readmissions in patients with heart failure is modest at best. It is unclear whether machine learning techniques that address higher dimensional, nonlinear relationships among variables would enhance prediction. We sought to compare the effectiveness of several machine learning algorithms for predicting readmissions.Methods and Results: Using data from the Telemonitoring to Improve Heart Failure Outcomes trial, we compared the effectiveness of random forests, boosting, random forests combined hierarchically with support vector machines or logistic regression (LR), and Poisson regression against traditional LR to predict 30- and 180-day all-cause readmissions and readmissions because of heart failure. We randomly selected 50% of patients for a derivation set, and a validation set comprised the remaining patients, validated using 100 bootstrapped iterations. We compared C statistics for discrimination and distributions of observed outcomes in risk deciles for predictive range. In 30-day all-cause readmission prediction, the best performing machine learning model, random forests, provided a 17.8% improvement over LR (mean C statistics, 0.628 and 0.533, respectively). For readmissions because of heart failure, boosting improved the C statistic by 24.9% over LR (mean C statistic 0.678 and 0.543, respectively). For 30-day all-cause readmission, the observed readmission rates in the lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk with random forests (7.8% and 26.2%, respectively) showed a much wider separation than LR (14.2% and 16.4%, respectively).Conclusions: Machine learning methods improved the prediction of readmission after hospitalization for heart failure compared with LR and provided the greatest predictive range in observed readmission rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are essential to guide medical practice; however, their generalizability to a given population is often uncertain. We developed a statistically informed Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) model, RCT-Twin-GAN, that leverages relationships between covariates and outcomes and generates a digital twin of an RCT (RCT-Twin) conditioned on covariate distributions from a second patient population. We used RCT-Twin-GAN to reproduce treatment effect outcomes of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) and the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) Blood Pressure Trial, which tested the same intervention but found different treatment effects. To demonstrate treatment effect estimates of each RCT conditioned on the other RCT's patient population, we evaluated the cardiovascular event-free survival of SPRINT digital twins conditioned on the ACCORD cohort and vice versa (ACCORD twins conditioned on SPRINT). The conditioned digital twins were balanced across intervention and control arms (mean absolute standardized mean difference (MASMD) of covariates between treatment arms 0.019 (SD 0.018), and the conditioned covariates of the SPRINT-Twin on ACCORD were more similar to ACCORD than SPRINT (MASMD 0.0082 SD 0.016 vs. 0.46 SD 0.20). Notably, across iterations, SPRINT conditioned ACCORD-Twin datasets reproduced the overall non-significant effect size seen in ACCORD (5-year cardiovascular outcome hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 0.88 (0.73-1.06) in ACCORD vs. median 0.87 (0.68-1.13) in the SPRINT conditioned ACCORD-Twin), while the ACCORD conditioned SPRINT-Twins reproduced the significant effect size seen in SPRINT (0.75 (0.64-0.89) vs. median 0.79 (0.72-0.86)) in the ACCORD conditioned SPRINT-Twin). Finally, we demonstrate the translation of this approach to real-world populations by conditioning the trials on an electronic health record population. Therefore, RCT-Twin-GAN simulates the direct translation of RCT-derived treatment effects across various patient populations., Competing Interests: COMPETING INTERESTS The authors Dr. Thangaraj, Mr. Shankar, Dr. Oikonomou, and Dr. Khera are coinventors of a provisional patent related to the current work (63/606,203). Dr. Oikonomou is a co-inventor of the U.S. Patent Applications 63/508,315 63/177,117, a cofounder of Evidence2Health (with Dr. Khera), and has previously served as a consultant to Caristo Diagnostics Ltd (outside the present work). Dr. Nadkarni is a founder of Renalytix, Pensieve, and Verici and provides consultancy services to AstraZeneca, Reata, Renalytix, Siemens Healthineer, and Variant Bio, and serves a scientific advisory board member for Renalytix and Pensieve. He also has equity in Renalytix, Pensieve, and Verici. Dr. Mortazavi reported receiving grants from the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, US Food and Drug Administration, and the US Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency outside the submitted work. In addition, B.J.M. has a pending patent on predictive models using electronic health records (US20180315507A1). Dr. Khera is an Associate Editor of JAMA. He receives support from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health (under awards R01HL167858 and K23HL153775) and the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation (under award 2022060). He also receives research support, through Yale, from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Novo Nordisk, and BridgeBio. He is a coinventor of U.S. Pending Patent Applications 63/562,335, 63/177,117, 63/428,569, 63/346,610, 63/484,426, 63/508,315, and 63/606,203. He is a co-founder of Ensight-AI, Inc. and Evidence2Health, health platforms to improve cardiovascular diagnosis and evidence-based cardiovascular care.

Hypertension is among the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and dementia. The artificial intelligence (AI) field is advancing quickly, and there has been little discussion on how AI could be leveraged for improving the diagnosis and management of hypertension. AI technologies, including machine learning tools, could alter the way we diagnose and manage hypertension, with potential impacts for improving individual and population health. The development of successful AI tools in public health and health care systems requires diverse types of expertise with collaborative relationships between clinicians, engineers, and data scientists. Unbiased data sources, management, and analyses remain a foundational challenge. From a diagnostic standpoint, machine learning tools may improve the measurement of blood pressure and be useful in the prediction of incident hypertension. To advance the management of hypertension, machine learning tools may be useful to find personalized treatments for patients using analytics to predict response to antihypertension medications and the risk for hypertension-related complications. However, there are real-world implementation challenges to using AI tools in hypertension. Herein, we summarize key findings from a diverse group of stakeholders who participated in a workshop held by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute in March 2023. Workshop participants presented information on communication gaps between clinical medicine, data science, and engineering in health care; novel approaches to estimating BP, hypertension risk, and BP control; and real-world implementation challenges and issues.

Goal: To establish Pulse2AI as a reproducible data preprocessing framework for pulsatile signals that generate high-quality machine-learning-ready datasets from raw wearable recordings. Methods: We proposed an end-to-end data preprocessing framework that adapts multiple pulsatile signal modalities and generates machine-learning-ready datasets agnostic to downstream medical tasks. Results: a dataset preprocessed by Pulse2AI improved systolic blood pressure estimation by 29.58%, from 11.41 to 8.03 mmHg in root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and its diastolic counterpart by 26.01%, from 7.93 to 5.87 mmHg in RMSE. For respiration rate (RR) estimation, Pulse2AI boosted performance by 19.69%, from 1.47 to 1.18 breaths per minute (BrPM) in mean-absolute-error (MAE). Conclusion: Pulse2AI turns pulsatile signals into machine learning (ML) ready datasets for arbitrary remote health monitoring tasks. We tested Pulse2AI on multiple pulsatile modalities and demonstrated its efficacy in two medical applications. This work bridges valuable assets in remote sensing and internet of medical things to ML-ready datasets for medical modeling., Competing Interests: All authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Observational medical data present unique opportunities for analysis of medical outcomes and treatment decision making. However, because these datasets do not contain the strict pairing of randomized control trials, matching techniques are to draw comparisons among patients. A key limitation to such techniques is verification that the variables used to model treatment decision making are also relevant in identifying the risk of major adverse events. This article explores a deep mixture of experts approach to jointly learn how to match patients and model the risk of major adverse events in patients. Although trained with information regarding treatment and outcomes, after training, the proposed model is decomposable into a network that clusters patients into phenotypes from information available before treatment. This model is validated on a dataset of patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock. The mixture of experts approach can predict the outcome of mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85 ± 0.01 while jointly discovering five potential phenotypes of interest. The technique and interpretation allow for identifying clinically relevant phenotypes that may be used both for outcomes modeling as well as potentially evaluating individualized treatment effects.

Accurate estimation of physiological biomarkers using raw waveform data from non-invasive wearable devices requires extensive data preprocessing. An automatic noise detection method in time-series data would offer significant utility for various domains. As data labeling is onerous, having a minimally supervised abnormality detection method for input data, as well as an estimation of the severity of the signal corruptness, is essential. We propose a model-free, time-series biomedical waveform noise detection framework using a Variational Autoencoder coupled with Gaussian Mixture Models, which can detect a range of waveform abnormalities without annotation, providing a confidence metric for each segment. Our technique operates on biomedical signals that exhibit periodicity of heart activities. This framework can be applied to any machine learning or deep learning model as an initial signal validator component. Moreover, the confidence score generated by the proposed framework can be incorporated into different models' optimization to construct confidence-aware modeling. We conduct experiments using dynamic time warping (DTW) distance of segments to validated cardiac cycle morphology. The result confirms that our approach removes noisy cardiac cycles and the remaining signals, classified as clean, exhibit a 59.92% reduction in the standard deviation of DTW distances. Using a dataset of bio-impedance data of 97885 cardiac cycles, we further demonstrate a significant improvement in the downstream task of cuffless blood pressure estimation, with an average reduction of 2.67 mmHg root mean square error (RMSE) of Diastolic Blood pressure and 2.13 mmHg RMSE of systolic blood pressure, with increases of average Pearson correlation of 0.28 and 0.08, with a statistically significant improvement of signal-to-noise ratio respectively in the presence of different synthetic noise sources. This enables burden-free validation of wearable sensor data for downstream biomedical applications.

We propose our Confidence-Aware Particle Filter (CAPF) framework that analyzes a series of estimated changes in blood pressure (BP) to provide several true state hypotheses for a given instance. Particularly, our novel confidence-awareness mechanism assigns likelihood scores to each hypothesis in an effort to discard potentially erroneous measurements - based on the agreement amongst a series of estimated changes and the physiological plausibility when considering DBP/SBP pairs. The particle filter formulation (or sequential Monte Carlo method) can jointly consider the hypotheses and their probabilities over time to provide a stable trend of estimated BP measurements. In this study, we evaluate BP trend estimation from an emerging bio-impedance (Bio-Z) prototype wearable modality although it is applicable to all types of physiological modalities. Each subject in the evaluation cohort underwent a hand-gripper exercise, a cold pressor test, and a recovery state to increase the variation to the captured BP ranges. Experiments show that CAPF yields superior continuous pulse pressure (PP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and systolic blood pressure (SBP) estimation performance compared to ten baseline approaches. Furthermore, CAPF performs on track to comply with AAMI and BHS standards for achieving a performance classification of Grade A, with mean error accuracies of -0.16 ± 3.75 mmHg for PP (r = 0.81), 0.42 ± 4.39 mmHg for DBP (r = 0.92), and -0.09 ± 6.51 mmHg for SBP (r = 0.92) from more than test 3500 data points.

Hospitalized patients sometimes have complex health conditions, such as multiple diseases, underlying diseases, and complications. The heterogeneous patient conditions may have various representations. A generalized model ignores the differences among heterogeneous patients, and personalized models, even with transfer learning, are still limited to the small amount of training data and the repeated training process. Meta-learning provides a solution for training similar patients based on few-shot learning; however, cannot address common cross-domain patients. Inspired by prototypical networks [1], we proposed a meta-prototype for Electronic Health Records (EHR), a meta-learning-based model with flexible prototypes representing the heterogeneity in patients. We apply this technique to cardiovascular diseases in MIMIC-III and compare it against a set of benchmark models, and demonstrate its ability to address heterogeneous patient health conditions and improve the model performances from 1.2% to 11.9% on different metrics and prediction tasks.Clinical relevance- Developing an adaptive EHR risk prediction model for outcomes-driven phenotyping of heterogeneous patient health conditions.

Background: Effective monitoring of dietary habits is critical for promoting healthy lifestyles and preventing or delaying the onset and progression of diet-related diseases, such as type 2 diabetes. Recent advances in speech recognition technologies and natural language processing present new possibilities for automated diet capture; however, further exploration is necessary to assess the usability and acceptability of such technologies for diet logging., Objective: This study explores the usability and acceptability of speech recognition technologies and natural language processing for automated diet logging., Methods: We designed and developed base2Diet-an iOS smartphone application that prompts users to log their food intake using voice or text. To compare the effectiveness of the 2 diet logging modes, we conducted a 28-day pilot study with 2 arms and 2 phases. A total of 18 participants were included in the study, with 9 participants in each arm (text: n=9, voice: n=9). During phase I of the study, all 18 participants received reminders for breakfast, lunch, and dinner at preselected times. At the beginning of phase II, all participants were given the option to choose 3 times during the day to receive 3 times daily reminders to log their food intake for the remainder of the phase, with the ability to modify the selected times at any point before the end of the study., Results: The total number of distinct diet logging events per participant was 1.7 times higher in the voice arm than in the text arm (P=.03, unpaired t test). Similarly, the total number of active days per participant was 1.5 times higher in the voice arm than in the text arm (P=.04, unpaired t test). Furthermore, the text arm had a higher attrition rate than the voice arm, with only 1 participant dropping out of the study in the voice arm, while 5 participants dropped out in the text arm., Conclusions: The results of this pilot study demonstrate the potential of voice technologies in automated diet capturing using smartphones. Our findings suggest that voice-based diet logging is more effective and better received by users compared to traditional text-based methods, underscoring the need for further research in this area. These insights carry significant implications for the development of more effective and accessible tools for monitoring dietary habits and promoting healthy lifestyle choices., (©Lucy Chikwetu, Shaundra Daily, Bobak J Mortazavi, Jessilyn Dunn. Originally published in JMIR Formative Research (https://formative.jmir.org), 16.05.2023.)