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Research Summary: Two perceptions drive interest in finding ways of diverting more 911 calls from police to civilian first responders: (1) police responses can result in inadvertent harm to citizens and (2) many calls to which police respond require services that police often cannot provide. Thus, using other personnel may improve police–citizen relations and strengthen crime fighting by reducing extraneous police burden. Using a case study design, we conducted formative evaluations of programs that have developed beyond pilots in three large U.S. cities: Albuquerque, Atlanta, and Houston. In each city, we interviewed officials, program operators, and other stakeholders and reviewed program documents and statistics. We detail the events and forces that led to the establishment of each program, the way in which the programs have been institutionalized, and the way they interact with the police department. We then discuss key lessons learned for these jurisdictions. Policy Implications: Many U.S. cities are considering diverting some emergency calls for service from police to civilian first responders. This analysis provides evidence to aid policy makers, researchers, and other stakeholders in the development and evaluation of community responder programs. In all respects, we find that cities' unique experiences inform program design. For example, in Albuquerque, a City Hall‐driven initiative established a new city agency parallel to the police department. In Atlanta, decarceration activists drove the initiative; the program is a city/county‐funded nonprofit, more fragile in its funding. Risk aversion among call takers and dispatchers has led to low call diversion rates across all sites, but training and collaboration have shown promise to resolve this problem. Public safety officials external to the diversion programs commonly expressed concerns about first responder safety and perceptions that police are expected when 911 is called. This risk aversion has led to slower‐than‐expected expansion of the program within each city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reforms to deploy civilian responders to non-criminal emergency calls may reduce demands on police departments and reduce negative interactions between police and civilians, but there is presently little empirical evidence on the feasibility of these proposals. We develop a model to evaluate which calls could be transitioned to civilian responders based on their crime risk. We use a rich dataset of community-initiated emergency calls to Baltimore Police Department to evaluate the effect of re-tasking based on three call diversion design scenarios. We find that 22 to 57% of 911 calls could be assigned to civilians. We then apply Monte Carlo methods to estimate the financial and time use implications of transferring low risk calls to civilians. Under the most conservative scenario, re-tasking frees police officer time equivalent to 59 additional full-time officers (95% CI: 43 – 75 officers), about nine percent of the Department's current patrol personnel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

24/7 Sobriety programs largely focus on reducing alcohol consumption among justice-involved individuals whose alcohol use has led them to repeatedly threaten public safety. Participants are ordered to abstain from alcohol use and subject to frequent alcohol testing (e.g., twice daily breathalyzers, remote alcohol monitoring); those testing positive face an immediate sanction, typically a night or two in jail. Unlike drug courts and other forms of coerced substance use disorder treatment, 24/7 does not require participants to enter a treatment program or attend self-help group meetings; however, these approaches are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The empirical evidence suggests that participants largely abstain from heavy drinking while in the program and that 24/7 participation is associated with lower probability of criminal legal involvement and mortality. This evidence is largely based on research in the Great Plains states with large rural populations. Several questions remain about these programs (e.g., optimal program length, possible benefits of incorporating positive incentives, efficacy of different alcohol testing technologies), many of which can best be answered in an experimental setting. In addition to reviewing the existing research on 24/7, this paper highlights additional research questions and ideas for conducting randomized controlled trials with the program, especially in more urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article applies analytical approaches to map illegal psychostimulant (cocaine and methamphetamine) trafficking networks in the US using purity-adjusted price data from the System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence. We use two assumptions to build the network: (i) the purity-adjusted price is lower at the origin than at the destination and (ii) price perturbations are transmitted from origin to destination. We then adopt a two-step analytical approach: we formulate the data aggregation problem as an optimization problem, then construct an inferred network of connected states and examine its properties. We find, first, that the inferred cocaine network created from the optimally aggregated dataset explains 46% of the anecdotal evidence, compared with 28.4% for an over-aggregated and 14.5% for an under-aggregated dataset. Second, our network reveals a number of phenomena, some aligning with what is known and some previously unobserved. To demonstrate the applicability of our method, we compare our cocaine data analysis results with parallel analysis of methamphetamine data. These results likewise align with prior knowledge, but also present new insights. Our findings show that an optimally aggregated dataset can provide a more accurate picture of an illicit drug network than can suboptimally aggregated data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the associations of 24/7 sobriety programs with reduced alcohol-involved offenses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: The US state of South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program (24/7) requires individuals charged or convicted of alcohol‐involved offenses to avoid alcohol and submit to twice‐daily or continuous alcohol testing. We evaluated the impact of the 24/7 program in the US state of Montana. Methods: Using data from everyone in Montana who was convicted of their second driving under the influence (DUI) offense from 2009 to August 2013, we described program violations among 24/7 participants and then estimated the effect of 24/7 participation on the probability of DUI re‐arrest. To address potential selection issues related to individual‐level 24/7 participation, we used an instrumental variables approach that exploits county‐level variation in program adoption. Results: Among 2768 people convicted of a second DUI in our analytical sample, 356 participated in 24/7 and were monitored for an average of 173 days (median = 112 days). Among the 332 participants monitored by breath test, 95.5% of scheduled alcohol breath tests were completed and did not lead to a program violation. After controlling for individual‐ and community‐level covariates as well as year and county fixed effects, our instrumental variable models suggested that participation in 24/7 reduced the 1‐year DUI re‐arrest probability by at least 80% (preferred model: 86% decrease; 8.9 percentage points) compared with a counterfactual group of people convicted of a second DUI over the same period but not assigned to the program. Conclusions: South Dakota USA's 24/7 Sobriety Program appears to work in Montana as well. Certain delivery of immediate but modest sanctions for repeat driving under the influence (DUI) arrestees who violate alcohol abstinence orders appears to be able to reduce future DUI arrests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To invoke behavioral economics theories of ambiguity in the context of offender decision-making, and to test the impact of ambiguity in punishment certainty on offender decisions. Methods: We leverage a quasi-experimental condition among a sample of drunk driving arrestees that are tested for alcohol use and subject to mandatory brief incarceration for a violation. The treatment condition relaxes a zero-tolerance alcohol rule, thereby introducing design-based ambiguity surrounding the certainty of punishment. We use Mahalanobis matching and propensity score weighting methods to estimate the impact of ambiguity on violations. We then interrogate this finding with complementary sensitivity analyses. Results: When facing the ambiguity condition participants are 27–28 percentage points (84–93 percent) more likely to violate program conditions after 30 days of supervision. We demonstrate that a statistical difference in violations due to ambiguity is still detectible at 90 and 180 days of supervision. These results are robust to alternative specifications and falsification tests. Conclusions: This study is the first to examine the impact of ambiguity on criminal justice program compliance using a quasi-experiment from the field. We further demonstrate the unintended costs to persons under supervision and jurisdictions of laxity in program design, which are applicable across criminal justice domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Globally, heroin and other opioids account for more than half of deaths and years‐of‐life‐lost due to drug use and comprise one of the four major markets for illegal drugs. Having sound estimates of the number of problematic heroin users is fundamental to formulating sound health and criminal justice policies. Researchers and policymakers rely heavily upon general population surveys (GPS), such as the US National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), to estimate heroin use, without confronting their limitations. GPS‐based estimates are also ubiquitous for cocaine and methamphetamine, so insights pertaining to GPS for estimating heroin use are also relevant for those drug markets. Analysis Four sources of potential errors in NSDUH are assessed: selective non‐response, small sample size, sampling frame omissions and under‐reporting. An alternative estimate drawing on a variety of sources including a survey of adult male arrestees is presented and explained. Other approaches to prevalence estimation are discussed. Findings Under‐reporting and selective non‐response in NSDUH are likely to lead to substantial underestimation. Small sample size leads to imprecise estimates and erratic year‐to‐year fluctuations. The alternative estimate provides credible evidence that NSDUH underestimates the number of frequent heroin users by at least three‐quarters and perhaps much more. Implications: GPS, even those as strong as NSDUH, are doomed by their nature to estimate poorly a rare and stigmatized behavior concentrated in a hard‐to‐track population. Although many European nations avoid reliance upon these surveys, many others follow the US model. Better estimation requires models that draw upon a variety of data sources, including GPS, to provide credible estimates. Recent methodological developments in selected countries can provide guidance. Journals should require researchers to critically assess the soundness of GPS estimates for any stigmatized drug‐related behaviors with low prevalence rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research Summary: We investigated whether higher rates of random drug testing lower substance use among people who are incarcerated and improve prison safety. To answer this question, we estimated linear panel two‐way fixed effects models using naturally varying monthly rates of random drug testing across all Pennsylvania state prisons over a 45‐month period during 2016–2019. Overall, we find that the testing rate is not related to any of the variables we consider, including our key measure of interest, positive drug tests. Policy Implications: Our analyses of historical monthly data find that higher levels of randomized testing did not yield more positive drug tests among incarcerated persons. Further and importantly, we did not find that lower testing rates was associated with negative consequences on other outcomes, suggesting that marginal increases in testing rates do not generate commensurate benefits. In this sense, our findings provide preliminary evidence that "a little testing goes a long way." Replication and expansion of our study is required for stronger conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research Summary: Criminal justice practitioners increasingly seek out efficient means of community supervision supplanting face‐to‐face interactions with practices that are less onerous to administrators and clients. We examined the differential impact of remote supervision for low‐risk probationers by race. Remote reporting greatly reduces or eliminates in‐person meetings where race would be salient; however, it also creates conditions where an officer may rely more heavily on heuristics. We found the program drastically reduced violations, but also exacerbated the racial discrepancy in reporting high discretion violations. Policy Implication: The study illustrates how integrating an empirical test of racial discrepancies into program evaluation can illuminate conditions that amplify implicit bias. Our findings illustrate how a program with unequivocally positive outcomes for low‐risk probationers overall can further amplify racial disparities, particularly when the probation officer has more discretion. By creating a statistically equivalent group of clients who receive probation‐as‐usual, our evaluation strategy measures this bias by comparing consequences for which an agent has high discretion against those for which they have low or no discretion for program participants. This approach is replicable across many criminal justice practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decisionmakers continue to search for new ways to deter criminal behavior that do not rely on increasing the severity of punishment. This paper evaluates South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program—a novel, large‐scale intervention requiring those arrested for or convicted of an alcohol‐related offense to abstain from alcohol and submit to alcohol tests multiple times daily. Those testing positive or missing a test receive a swift,certain, and moderate sanction; typically, a night or two in jail. To estimate the causal effect of the 24/7 program on the probability of rearrest or probation revocation for those arrested for a second or third driving under the influence (DUI) offense, we instrument an individual's 24/7 participation with program availability in the county of arrest. We estimate that the individual‐level probability of rearrest or probation revocation is 13.7 percentage points (49 percent; p = 0.002) lower for 24/7 participants than non‐participants 12 months after their DUI arrest. We detect substantive decreases at 24 and 36 months, but the precision of those estimates depends on model specification. These findings provide empricial support for applying "swift‐certain‐fair" sanctions to deter noncompliance in community supervision settings. This paper also provides policymakers with evidence for a new approach to reduce criminal activity among those whose alcohol use leads them to repeatedly threaten public health and safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Our goal was to develop a framework to test for implicit racial bias in discretionary decisions made by community supervision agents in conditions with increasing information ambiguity., Hypotheses: We reasoned that as in-person contact decreases, community supervision officers' specific knowledge of clients would be replaced by heuristics that lead to racially disproportionate outcomes in higher discretion events. Officers' implicit biases would lead to disproportionately higher technical violation rates among Black community corrections' clients when they have less personal contact, but we expected no analogous increase in nondiscretionary decisions., Method: Using data from Black and White clients entering probation and postrelease supervision in North Carolina from 2012 through 2016, we estimated the difference in racial disparities in discretionary versus nondiscretionary decisions across five levels of supervision. We evaluated the robustness of our main fixed-effects model using an alternative regression discontinuity design., Results: Racial disparities in discretionary decisions grew as supervision intensity decreased, and the bias was larger for women than men. There was no similar pattern of increased disparity for nondiscretionary decisions., Conclusions: Criminal justice system actors have a great deal of discretion, particularly in how they deal with less serious criminal behavior. Although decentralized decisions are foundational to the function of the criminal justice system, they provide an opportunity for implicit bias to seep in. Shortcuts and mental heuristics are more influential when the decision-maker's mental resources are already strained-for instance, if someone is tired, distracted, or overworked. Therefore, limiting discretion and increasing oversight and accountability may reduce the impact of implicit bias on criminal justice system outcomes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).