21 results on '"Martinello, Chiara"'
Search Results
2. Exploring the geomorphological adequacy of the landslide susceptibility maps: A test for different types of landslides in the Bidente river basin (northern Italy)
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Martinello, Chiara, Delchiaro, Michele, Iacobucci, Giulia, Cappadonia, Chiara, Rotigliano, Edoardo, and Piacentini, Daniela
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- 2024
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3. Landform classification: a high-performing mapping unit partitioning tool for landslide susceptibility assessment—a test in the Imera River basin (northern Sicily, Italy)
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Martinello, Chiara, Cappadonia, Chiara, Conoscenti, Christian, and Rotigliano, Edoardo
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- 2022
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4. Predicting sediment deposition rate in check-dams using machine learning techniques and high-resolution DEMs
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Conoscenti, Christian, Martinello, Chiara, Alfonso-Torreño, Alberto, and Gómez-Gutiérrez, Álvaro
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- 2021
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5. Prevalence of Incidental Findings Suspicious for Transthyretin Cardiac Amyloidosis among Patients Undergoing Bone Scintigraphy: A Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis.
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Treglia, Giorgio, Martinello, Chiara, Dondi, Francesco, Albano, Domenico, Bertagna, Francesco, Rizzo, Alessio, Delgado Bolton, Roberto C., Tersalvi, Gregorio, Muoio, Barbara, Riegger, Martin, and Cecchin, Diego
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CARDIAC amyloidosis , *TRANSTHYRETIN , *RADIONUCLIDE imaging , *NUCLEAR medicine , *BIBLIOGRAPHIC databases , *OLDER men - Abstract
Background: The myocardial uptake of bone-seeking tracers suspicious for transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTR-CA) can be incidentally detected in patients undergoing bone scintigraphy for noncardiac reasons. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the prevalence of these scintigraphic findings. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was performed using two bibliographic databases (PubMed/MEDLINE and Cochrane Library), searching for articles related to the review question. Eligible articles were selected, and relevant data were extracted by two authors. The pooled prevalence of incidental findings suspicious for ATTR-CA among patients undergoing bone scintigraphy was calculated on a per-patient-based analysis using a random-effects model. The pooled measure was provided with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) values. Results: Among 219 records, 11 articles were selected for the systematic review and 10 for the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of incidental findings suspicious for ATTR-CA was 1.1% (95% CI: 0.7–1.4%) with heterogeneity due to the characteristics of the included studies, patients, and index tests. These findings are more prevalent in older men. Conclusions: The prevalence of incidental findings of ATTR-CA among patients undergoing bone scintigraphy is low but not negligible. Nuclear medicine physicians should suggest, in the scintigraphic report, further clinical investigations when these findings are detected. Prospective studies are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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6. Using Public Landslide Inventories for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment at the Basin Scale: Application to the Torto River Basin (Central-Northern Sicily, Italy).
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Martinello, Chiara, Mercurio, Claudio, Cappadonia, Chiara, Bellomo, Viviana, Conte, Andrea, Mineo, Giampiero, Di Frisco, Giulia, Azzara, Grazia, Bufalini, Margherita, Materazzi, Marco, and Rotigliano, Edoardo
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LANDSLIDE hazard analysis ,LANDSLIDES ,WATERSHEDS ,INVENTORIES ,PUBLIC administration - Abstract
In statistical landslide susceptibility evaluation, the quality of the model and its prediction image heavily depends on the quality of the landslide inventories used for calibration. However, regional-scale inventories made available by public territorial administrations are typically affected by an unknown grade of incompleteness and mapping inaccuracy. In this research, a procedure is proposed for verifying and solving such limits by applying a two-step susceptibility modeling procedure. In the Torto River basin (central-northern Sicily, Italy), using an available regional landslide inventory (267 slide and 78 flow cases), two SUFRA_1 models were first prepared and used to assign a landslide susceptibility level to each slope unit (SLU) in which the study area was partitioned. For each of the four susceptibility classes that were obtained, 30% of the mapping units were randomly selected and their stable/unstable status was checked by remote analysis. The new, increased inventories were finally used to recalibrate two SUFRA_2 models. The prediction skills of the SUFRA_1 and SUFRA_2 models were then compared by testing their accuracy in matching landslide distribution in a test sub-basin where a high-resolution systematic inventory had been prepared. According to the results, the strong limits of the SUFRA_1 models (sensitivity: 0.67 and 0.57 for slide and flow, respectively) were largely solved by the SUFRA_2 model (sensitivity: 1 for both slide and flow), suggesting the proposed procedure as a possibly suitable modeling strategy for regional susceptibility studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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7. A regional approach for exploring the relation between sediment transport and coastal erosion in Sicily
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Azzara, Grazia, Manno, Giorgio, Martinello, Chiara, Lo Re, Carlo, Mercurio, Claudio, Basile, Mirko, Ciraolo, Giuseppe, Rotigliano, Edoardo, Azzara, Grazia, Manno, Giorgio, Martinello, Chiara, Lo Re, Carlo, Mercurio, Claudio, Basile, Mirko, Ciraolo, Giuseppe, and Rotigliano, Edoardo
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Sediment transport, coastal erosion, WaTEM/SEDEM model - Abstract
To study on a regional basis, the relation between fluvial sediment delivery and coastal erosion, the historical record of coastline migration of Sicily was analyzed with respect to the estimated sediment delivery to the coast obtained from the spatially distributed sediment delivery WaTEM/SEDEM model. The latter was directly acquired from the ESDAC database as a 25 m pixel layers, being based on the combination between the RUSLE model and a transport capacity routing algorithm. At the same time, the coastline-evolution (accretion/retreatment) data for 1960/1994 and 1994/2012 intervals were processed. This dataset, provided by ISPRA (Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research), is made by vectorial polygons, corresponding to erosion or accretion areas obtained by the intersection between two coastlines. The dataset contains polygons related to the 1960-1994 and 1994-2012 periods. Once a common baseline was extracted from 2019 satellite images, 22 Physiographic Units (PU) were identified. The PU was defined based on geomorphologic criteria and by assuming a null net sediment budget (null sediment transport between two PU neighboring). Each coastal PU was connected to its contributing fluvial basins, also assigning the expected sediment delivery at the coastline. To perform the analysis, cross profiles along the coastline were generated and intersected with the polygons, calculating a response value, in terms of retreatment or accretion, to each of the cross-profile centroids. Finally, for each PU, the cumulated variations were computed. PUs with significant cumulative variations (more than 2 km) in at least one of the two epochs were identified and three different patterns were detected: accretion/retreatment, retreatment/accretion, and retreatment/retreatment. The response observed for the different PUs was then analyzed considering estimated sediment delivery, recognizing coherent (large sediment delivery = accretion) and incoherent (large sediment delivery = retreatment) behaviors, which have been interpreted as controlled by the history of soil/coastal erosion management practices. In particular, in spite of a very high expected sediment delivery, more than three-quarters of the Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) Tyrrhenian coast resulted as affected by a marked retreat in 60-94 (same tens of meters) and a moderate accretion in 94-12, as the result of extensive coastal works which have been realized to mitigate coastal erosion.
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- 2022
8. Hereditary spastic paraplegias proteome: common pathways and pathogenetic mechanisms.
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Martinello, Chiara, Panza, Emanuele, and Orlacchio, Antonio
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Hereditary spastic paraplegias (HSPs) are a group of inherited neurodegenerative disorders characterized by progressive spasticity and weakness of the lower limbs. These conditions are caused by lesions in the neuronal pyramidal tract and exhibit clinical and genetic variability. Ongoing research focuses on understanding the underlying mechanisms of HSP onset, which ultimately lead to neuronal degeneration. Key molecular mechanisms involved include axonal transport, cytoskeleton dynamics, myelination abnormalities, membrane trafficking, organelle morphogenesis, ER homeostasis, mitochondrial dysfunction, and autophagy deregulation. This review aims to provide an overview of the shared pathogenetic mechanisms in various forms of HSPs. By examining disease-causing gene products and their associated functional pathways, this understanding could lead to the discovery of new therapeutic targets and the development of treatments to modify the progression of the disease. Investigating gene functionality is crucial for identifying shared pathogenetic pathways underlying different HSP subtypes. Categorizing protein function and identifying pathways aids in finding biomarkers, predicting early onset, and guiding treatment for a better quality of life. Targeting shared mechanisms enables efficient and cost-effective therapies. Prospects involve identifying new disease-causing genes, refining molecular processes, and implementing findings in diagnosis, key for advancing HSP understanding and developing effective treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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9. Improving statistical methodologies for landslide susceptibility modelling at regional and basin scale. Applications in the Sicilian and Salvadoran territory
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MARTINELLO, CHIARA, CONOSCENTI, Christian, and MILAZZO, Marco
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landslide susceptibility evaluation ,Settore GEO/04 - Geografia Fisica E Geomorfologia ,debris flow ,El Salvador ,mapping unit ,Sicily ,validation tool - Published
- 2022
10. Predicting Earthquake-Induced Landslides by Using a Stochastic Modeling Approach: A Case Study of the 2001 El Salvador Coseismic Landslides.
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Mercurio, Claudio, Calderón-Cucunuba, Laura Paola, Argueta-Platero, Abel Alexei, Azzara, Grazia, Cappadonia, Chiara, Martinello, Chiara, Rotigliano, Edoardo, and Conoscenti, Christian
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LANDSLIDES ,NATURAL disaster warning systems ,STOCHASTIC models ,DEBRIS avalanches ,LANDSLIDE prediction ,BUILDING failures ,INDUCED seismicity - Abstract
In January and February 2001, El Salvador was hit by two strong earthquakes that triggered thousands of landslides, causing 1259 fatalities and extensive damage. The analysis of aerial and SPOT-4 satellite images allowed us to map 6491 coseismic landslides, mainly debris slides and flows that occurred in volcanic epiclastites and pyroclastites. Four different multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models were produced using different predictors and landslide inventories which contain slope failures triggered by an extreme rainfall event in 2009 and those induced by the earthquakes of 2001. In a predictive analysis, three validation scenarios were employed: the first and the second included 25% and 95% of the landslides, respectively, while the third was based on a k-fold spatial cross-validation. The results of our analysis revealed that: (i) the MARS algorithm provides reliable predictions of coseismic landslides; (ii) a better ability to predict coseismic slope failures was observed when including susceptibility to rainfall-triggered landslides as an independent variable; (iii) the best accuracy is achieved by models trained with both preparatory and trigger variables; (iv) an incomplete inventory of coseismic slope failures built just after the earthquake event can be used to identify potential locations of yet unreported landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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11. Analysis of the Rockfall Phenomena Contributing to the Evolution of a Pocket Beach Area Using Traditional and Remotely Acquired Data (Lo Zingaro Nature Reserve, Southern Italy).
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Cappadonia, Chiara, Cafiso, Fabio, Ferraro, Riccardo, Martinello, Chiara, and Rotigliano, Edoardo
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ROCKFALL ,NATURE reserves ,GEOLOGICAL modeling ,DIGITAL elevation models ,BEACHES ,LANDFORMS - Abstract
The coastal domain of central western Sicily is characterized by the presence of rocky coasts, which mainly consist of pocket beaches situated between bedrock headlands that constitute ecological niches of great touristic and economic value. In this peculiar morphodynamic system, the sedimentary contributions are mainly derived from the rockfall that affects the back of nearby cliffs or the sediment supply of small streams that flow into it. In this study, we investigated the geomorphological processes and related landforms that contribute to the evolution of a pocket beach area located in a coastal sector of NW Sicily Island. The cliffs in this are affected by several rockfalls, and deposits from these rockfalls also add to the rate of sedimentary contribution. The analysis was conducted through the application of traditional approaches and contemporary methods that have previously been used to forecast the collection of input data in the field, often under difficult conditions due to the accessibility of the sites, and which have been supported by UAV surveys. Through the analysis of the digital models of terrain and orthophotos, geometrical and multitemporal analyses of landforms were carried out. A dedicated software was utilized for the detection of rockfall runout zones and block trajectories and for defining the automatic extraction of rock mass discontinuities. The data were compared with those derived from traditional geomechanical surveys. The availability of the existing and acquired remote sensing data proved essential for this study for both defining the reference geological model and for performing the site-specific analysis of rockfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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12. Investigating the Effects of Cell Size in Statistical Landslide Susceptibility Modelling for Different Landslide Typologies: A Test in Central–Northern Sicily.
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Martinello, Chiara, Cappadonia, Chiara, and Rotigliano, Edoardo
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LANDSLIDES ,LANDSLIDE hazard analysis ,CELL size ,GRID cells - Abstract
Optimally sizing grid cells is a relevant research issue in landslide susceptibility evaluation. In fact, the size of the adopted mapping units influences several aspects spanning from statistical (the number of positive/negative cases and prevalence and resolution/precision trade-off) and purely geomorphological (the representativeness of the mapping units and the diagnostic areas) to cartographic (the suitability of the obtained prediction images for the final users) topics. In this paper, the results of landslide susceptibility modelling in a 343 km
2 catchment for three different types of landslides (rotational/translational slides, slope flows and local flows) using different pixel-size mapping units (5, 8, 10, 16 and 32 m) are compared and discussed. The obtained results show that the higher-resolution model (5 m) did not produce the best performance for any of the landslide typologies. The model with 8 m sized pixels displayed the optimal threshold size for slides and slope flows. In contrast, for local flows, an increasing trend of model prediction accuracy was reached with 32 m pixels, which was a higher value than that presented using 8 m pixels. The variable importance analysis demonstrated that the better performance of the 8 m cells was due to their effectiveness in capturing morphological conditions which favour slope instability (profile curvature and middle and high ridges). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2023
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13. Combining multi-typologies landslide susceptibility maps: a case study for the Visso area (central Italy).
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Martinello, Chiara, Bufalini, Margherita, Cappadonia, Chiara, Rotigliano, Edoardo, and Materazzi, Marco
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LANDSLIDE hazard analysis , *LANDSLIDES , *LAND use mapping , *FAILURE (Psychology) - Abstract
The research proposes a simple but geomorphologically adequate method to produce a combined landslide susceptibility map. In fact, in a logic of real use, offering type-specific landslide susceptibility maps to land use planners and administration could be not a successful solution. On the other hand, the simple grouping of more types of landslides could be misleading for model calibration considering that the relationships between slope failures and geo-environmental predictors should be conveyed by the abundance of each type of landslide resulting not specific and diagnostic for each typology. In this test, after having produced independent models for flow, slide and complex landslide by exploiting MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) and a set of type-specific geo)environmental variables, a combined landslide susceptibility map was obtained by combining the scores of the three source maps. The combined map was finally validated with a new unknown archive, showing very good performances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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14. An Approach for the Validation of a Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index: An Application in Sicily.
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Manno, Giorgio, Azzara, Grazia, Lo Re, Carlo, Martinello, Chiara, Basile, Mirko, Rotigliano, Edoardo, and Ciraolo, Giuseppe
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COASTAL changes ,GEOMORPHOLOGY ,OCEAN conditions (Weather) ,RIVER sediments ,COASTAL mapping ,WATERSHEDS - Abstract
In recent decades, coastal erosion phenomena have increased due to climate change. The increased frequency and intensity of extreme events and the poor sediment supply by anthropized river basins (dams, river weirs, culverts, etc.) have a crucial role in coastal erosion. Therefore, an integrated analysis of coastal erosion is crucial to produce detailed and accurate coastal erosion vulnerability information to support mitigation strategies. This research aimed to assess the erosion vulnerability of the Sicilian coast, also including a validation procedure of the obtained scenario. The coastal vulnerability was computed by means of the CeVI (Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index) approach, which considers physical indicators such as geomorphology and geology, coastal slope, sea storms, wave maxima energy flux and sediment supply to river mouths. Each indicator was quantified using indexes which were assessed considering transects orthogonal to the coastline in 2020. These transects were clustered inside natural compartments called littoral cells. Each cell was assumed to contain a complete cycle of sedimentation and not to have sediment exchange with the near cells. Physical parameters were identified to define a new erosion vulnerability index for the Sicilian coast. By using physical indexes (geological/geomorphological, erosion/sediment supply, sea storms, etc.), the CeVI was calculated both for each littoral cell and for the transects that fall into retreating/advancing coastal areas. The vulnerability index was then validated by comparing CeVI values and the coastline change over time. The validation study showed a direct link between the coastline retreat and high values of CeVI. The proposed method allowed for a detailed mapping of the Sicilian coastal vulnerability, and it will be useful for coastal erosion risk management purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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15. The Role of Wastewater in Controlling Fluvial Erosion Processes on Clayey Bedrock.
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Bufalini, Margherita, Aringoli, Domenico, Bendia, Fabrizio, Farabollini, Piero, Gentilucci, Matteo, Lampa, Francesco, Martinello, Chiara, Materazzi, Marco, and Pambianchi, Gilberto
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BEDROCK ,FLUVIAL geomorphology ,CLAY soils ,WATER treatment plants ,SEDIMENT transport - Abstract
In recent decades, fluvial erosion processes in highly anthropized areas are mainly associated with in-stream gravel mining activities or with the presence of artificial reservoirs which have increased the erosive capacity of the river as a consequence of the reduced sediment transport or the modification of the longitudinal profile of the channel. On the other hand, the role of pollutants in the degradation processes of soils with a predominantly clayey component is little known. The present study, through chemical analyses of water and mineralogical–geotechnical analyses of clayey soil samples taken along some river channels in central Italy in correspondence with water treatment plants, highlights how "polluting" elements present in the water can modify the crystalline lattice and consequently, the resistance parameters of the soil itself, making it more susceptible to erosion processes. In particular, significant are the variations of the Plasticity Index, which tends to double in all the samples and the transformations of clayey minerals such as illite and kaolinite, toward montmorillonite and smectite, with consequent breaking of the ionic bonds and decrease of the material cohesion. Although in the cases studied this phenomenon was quantitatively less relevant than the "mechanical" processes described above, it could have a greater impact in the presence of landfills or large production settlements (agricultural or industrial) where the concentration of pollutants can be substantial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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16. Soil Erosion and Deposition Rate Inside an Artificial Reservoir in Central Italy: Bathymetry versus RUSLE and Morphometry.
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Bufalini, Margherita, Materazzi, Marco, Martinello, Chiara, Rotigliano, Edoardo, Pambianchi, Gilberto, Tromboni, Michele, and Paniccià, Marco
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SOIL erosion ,UNIVERSAL soil loss equation ,MORPHOMETRICS ,BATHYMETRY ,WATER supply ,REGIONAL differences - Abstract
This study, using different direct and indirect methodologies, evaluated the sedimentation rate in an artificial reservoir in central Italy. This reservoir is regionally representative and was built in the 1960s for hydroelectric purposes; it has experienced a strong decrease in trap efficiency and a loss of over 70% of the stored water volume. Direct measurements of the lake bottom bathymetry, carried out in 2006 and 2015, and 3D reconstructions performed in a GIS environment, made it possible to calculate the volume of filling material and to verify an increasing trend in the sedimentation rate since 2006. The sample reservoir denudation rate was compared with that obtained using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation method to calibrate the fundamental and critical factors of the method itself, and verify the contribution of a hydrological "direct" (through new channels or gullies) or "diffuse" (overland flow) connectivity. Furthermore, the comparison with the results obtained from past studies on ten other artificial regional reservoirs, performed with morphometric analysis, demonstrated a good relationship between soil erosion rate, stream frequency, and contributing area size. The study highlighted how a correct estimate of soil erosion and/or solid transport rates within a hydrographic basin is fundamental for the assessment of the trap efficiency of a reservoir, in a period in which the availability of water resources is becoming more and more vital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
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17. Investigating Limits in Exploiting Assembled Landslide Inventories for Calibrating Regional Susceptibility Models: A Test in Volcanic Areas of El Salvador.
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Martinello, Chiara, Mercurio, Claudio, Cappadonia, Chiara, Hernández Martínez, Miguel Ángel, Reyes Martínez, Mario Ernesto, Rivera Ayala, Jacqueline Yamileth, Conoscenti, Christian, and Rotigliano, Edoardo
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LANDSLIDES ,LANDSLIDE hazard analysis ,INVENTORIES ,DEBRIS avalanches - Abstract
Featured Application: This research deals with a very relevant topic in the framework of landslide susceptibility mapping, highlighting some very critical drawbacks in using a weak landslide inventory for regional-scale assessment. Tools and strategies for recognizing and approaching such limits are given. This research is focused on the evaluation of the reliability of regional landslide susceptibility models obtained by exploiting inhomogeneous (for quality, resolution and/or triggering related type and intensity) collected inventories for calibration. At a large-scale glance, merging more inventories can result in well-performing models hiding potential strong predictive deficiencies. An example of the limits that such kinds of models can display is given by a landslide susceptibility study, which was carried out for a large sector of the coastal area of El Salvador, where an apparently well-performing regional model (AUC = 0.87) was obtained by regressing a dataset through multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), including five landslide inventories from volcanic areas (Ilopango and Coatepeque caldera; San Salvador, San Miguel, and San Vicente Volcanoes). A multiscale validation strategy was applied to verify its actual predictive skill on a local base, bringing to light the loss in the predictive power of the regional model, with a lowering of AUC (20% on average) and strong effects in terms of sensitivity and specificity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
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18. Optimal slope units partitioning in landslide susceptibility mapping.
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Martinello, Chiara, Cappadonia, Chiara, Conoscenti, Christian, Agnesi, Valerio, and Rotigliano, Edoardo
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LANDSLIDE hazard analysis , *LANDSLIDES , *FORECASTING - Abstract
In landslide susceptibility modeling, the selection of the mapping units is a very relevant topic both in terms of geomorphological adequacy and suitability of the models and final maps. In this paper, a test to integrate pixels and slope units is presented. MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) modeling was applied to assess landslide susceptibility based on a 12 predictors and a 1608 cases database. A pixel-based model was prepared and the scores zoned into 10 different types of slope units, obtained by differently combining two half-basin (HB) and four landform classification (LCL) coverages. The predictive performance of the 10 models were then compared to select the best performing one, whose prediction image was finally modified to consider also the propagation stage. The results attest integrating HB with LCL as more performing than using simple HB classification, with a very limited loss in predictive performance with respect to the pixel-based model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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19. Rockfall hazards of Mount Pellegrino area (Sicily, Southern Italy).
- Author
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Cappadonia, Chiara, Cafiso, Fabio, Ferraro, Riccardo, Martinello, Chiara, and Rotigliano, Edoardo
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ROCKFALL ,THEMATIC maps ,LAND management ,LAND use planning ,HAZARDS - Abstract
A map derived by rockfall analysis at Mount Pellegrino is presented herein. The study area is affected by several phenomena of rockfall which caused numerous damage and a strong social and economic impact. Official reports and maps that give a general assessment of rockfall hazard are available in this respect, however, it would be advisable to provide a more specific cartographic support useful for land management and planning. The drafting of new maps showing the rockfall runout areas is an additional tool that may be used in conjunction with the existing maps as a means of risk mitigation and reduction. On the basis of geological, geomorphological, and geomechanical analysis and exploiting the information relating to a landslides inventory obtained by using both analytical and empirical methods, two different rockfall propagation areas were reconstructed. The final thematic map permit to appreciate the differences and similarities between the obtained runout areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2021
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20. Evaluation of debris flow susceptibility in El Salvador (CA): a comparison between Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and Binary Logistic Regression (BLR).
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ROTIGLIANO, EDOARDO, MARTINELLO, CHIARA, AGNESI, VALERIO, and CONOSCENTI, CHRISTIAN
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LANDSLIDES , *LOGISTIC regression analysis - Abstract
In the studies of landslide susceptibility assessment, which have been developed in recent years, statistical methods have increasingly been applied. Among all, the BLR (Binary Logistic Regression) certainly finds a more extensive application while MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines), despite the good performance and the innovation of the strategies of analysis, only recently began to be employed as a statistical tool for predicting landslide occurrence. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the predictive performance and identify possible drawbacks of the two statistical techniques mentioned above, focusing in particular on the prediction of debris flows. To this aim, an inventory of debris flows triggered by the passage of the hurricane IDA and the low-pressure system associated with it 96E, on 7th and 8th November 2009, in an area of about 26 km2 close to the Caldera Ilopango, El Salvador (CA), was employed. Two validation strategies have been applied to both statistical techniques, thus obtaining four models - BLR (I), MARS (I), BLR (II) and MARS (II) - to be compared in pairs. Model performance was assessed in terms of AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive Prediction Value and Negative Prediction Value. Moreover, to evaluate the robustness of the modelling procedure, 50 replicates were created for each model and standard deviation was calculated for each of them. The results show that both techniques allow for obtaining good or excellent performances so that it is not possible to define one of the two techniques as absolutely better. However, the validation procedure reveals slightly better performance of the MARS models, with greater sensitivity and greater discrimination among True Negatives (TNs). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
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21. Susceptibility analysis for seismically-induced landslides: application to the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador (C.A.)
- Author
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Claudio Mercurio, Chiara Martinello, Grazia Azzara, Abel Alexei Argueta Platero, Giorgio Manno, Chiara Cappadonnia, Christian Conoscenti, Edoardo Rotigliano, Mercurio, Claudio, Martinello, Chiara, Azzara, Grazia, Argueta Platero, Abel Alexei, Manno, Giorgio, Cappadonia, Chiara, Conoscenti, Christian, and Rotigliano, Edoardo
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Landslides, eartquakes, MARS model - Abstract
The geodynamic context in which El Salvador is located, made of a convergent structure characterized by the interaction among six different plates, together with the lithological characteristics of the outcropping rocks and soils (mainly corresponding to deeply weathered acid pyroclastites, basic effusive rocks and volcanic ashes), are responsible for the very high seismically-induced landslide susceptibility of the country. These predisposing factors were decisive on the occurrence of thousands of seismically-induced landslides caused by two huge earthquakes on 13th January and 13th February 2001, which triggered thousands of landslides in the country. In particular, the February event (6.6M, onshore and intraplate at a depth of 10 km) triggered 5,371 landslides in an area of around 300km2. These gravitational phenomena took the form of debris slides, earth slides and debris flows and affected several inhabited areas damaging infrastructures and crops and causing, respectively 844 and 315 fatalities.Thanks to aerial photos taken soon after the days following both the two earthquakes and made available by the CNR (Centro Nacional de Registros - Instituto Geográfico y del Catastro Nacional), associated landslide maps have been prepared, where each phenomenon is represented by a landslide polygon and its LIP (Landslide Identification Point), located in the crown of the landslide. In particular, static landslide susceptibility models were prepared for the Ilopango (1594 landslides in an area of around 40km2) and the San Vicente (1602 landslides in an area of around 108 km2) sectors, by regressing the spatial distribution of the 13th February seismically-induced landslides on a set of explanatory variables obtained by a geologic map and a 10m pixel DTM (Digital Terrain Model). At the same time, shaking-dependent models were prepared by including also PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) and the epicentral distance (ED) among the predictors.For both the two areas a marked increase of performance was observed (AUC from 0.70 to 0.75, for Ilopango, from 0.73 to 0.77, for San Vicente) from the static to the shaking-dependent models, highlighting the role of the seismic acceleration in the triggering of the landslides both in activating the susceptible sites and in lowering the score threshold for slope failures occurrences. Besides, for the Ilopango sector, a rainfall-induced susceptibility model was also prepared, exploiting a landslide inventory available for the 2009 IDA/12E storm events. The obtained score was then combined with PGA and ED to predict the spatial distribution of the seismically induced landslides, obtaining a higher performance than the relative basic model (AUC = 0.75).The results obtained from the research demonstrate suggest the possibility to couple the susceptibility scores obtained from static modelling to the expected mechanical shaking for the seismically-induced susceptibility assessment.The whole modelling was carried out by applying MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) analysis through RStudio and SAGA GIS freeware software.
- Published
- 2022
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