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Objective The objective of this article is to investigate potential clinical and MRI predictors of long-term outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods This was a post hoc analysis using data from all 382 patients in the PRISMS long-term follow-up (LTFU) study collected up to eight years after randomisation. An additional analysis was performed including only those patients originally randomised to receive early subcutaneous interferon (IFN) β-1a ( n = 259). Baseline/prestudy variables, indicators of early clinical and MRI activity (baseline to month 24), and indicators of IFN β-1a treatment exposure (including medication possession ratio (MPR)) were investigated as candidate prognostic factors for outcomes measured from baseline and from month 24 to LTFU. Explanatory variables identified from univariate regression models ( p ≤ 0.15) were selected for inclusion in stepwise multiple regression models. Results Candidate prognostic factors selected by the univariate analysis ( p ≤ 0.15) included age, MS duration, baseline brain volume, EDSS score, and log(T2 burden of disease (BOD)). In most of the multivariate regression models applied, higher baseline brain volume and MPR predicted better long-term clinical outcomes, while higher baseline and greater early increase in EDSS score predicted worse outcomes. Conclusion Identification of markers that may be prognostic for long-term disability could help identify MS patients at higher risk of disability progression.

Background: Risks that are potentially associated with long-term therapies should be assessed. Objective: The present analyses were performed to determine the risk of malignancy in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) receiving subcutaneous (sc) interferon (IFN) beta-1a, using pooled safety data from key clinical trials and data from the Merck Serono Global Drug Safety database. Methods: The standard Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities query “malignancies” was used to retrieve relevant cases from each data set. The incidence of malignancies per 1000 patient-years was calculated using the pooled safety data from clinical trials. The reporting rates of malignancy types were calculated for the post-marketing setting based on sales volume. Malignancies were grouped by organ localization and classified as medically confirmed or not medically confirmed according to the source of each report. The number of reported cases of each type was compared with the expected number in the general population. Results: Analysis of pooled safety data from 12 key clinical trials did not show an increased incidence of malignancy per 1000 patient-years with sc IFN beta-1a (4.0; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9–5.5) compared with placebo (6.4; 95% CI: 3.3–11.2). Analysis of the database shows that among the medically confirmed cases, reported to expected ratios ranged from 1 : 6 to 1 : 18 for solid tumours and from 1 : 2 to 1 : 9 for lymphohaematopoietic tumours. Conclusion: Safety data from both clinical trial and post-marketing settings suggest that treatment with sc IFN beta-1a does not increase the risk of malignancy in patients with MS.

Objective: Interferon (IFN) beta has repeatedly shown benefit in multiple sclerosis (MS) in reducing the rate of relapse, the disease activity as shown with magnetic resonance imaging and, to some degree, the progression of disability; however, it is unknown how much the therapeutic response depends on the dose, the subgroup involved, and the disease stage. This multicentre, double blind, placebo controlled study explored the dose−response curve by examining the clinical benefit of low dose IFN beta-1a (Rebif®), 22 μg subcutaneously once weekly, in patients with secondary progressive MS. Methods: A total of 371 patients with clinically definite SPMS were randomised to receive either placebo or subcutaneous IFN beta-1a, 22 μg once weekly, for 3 years. Clinical assessments were performed every 6 months. The primary outcome was time to sustained disability, as defined by time to first confirmed 1.0 point increase on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Secondary outcomes included a sensitive disability measure and relapse rate. Results: Treatment had no beneficial effect on time to confirmed progression on either the EDSS (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 1.57; p = 0.45 for 22 μg v placebo) or the Regional Functional Status Scale (HR = 0.93; 95% CI 0.68 to 1.28; p = 0.67). Other disability measures were also not significantly affected by treatment. Annual relapse rate was 0.27 with placebo and 0.25 with IFN (rate ratio = 0.90; 95% CI 0.64 to 1.27; p = 0.55). The drug was well tolerated with no new safety concerns identified. No significant gender differences were noted. Conclusions: This patient population was less clinically active than SPMS populations studied in other trials. Treatment with low dose, IFN beta-1a (Rebif®) once weekly did not show any benefit in this study for either disability or relapse outcomes, including a subgroup with preceding relapses. These results add a point at one extreme of the dose−response spectrum of IFN beta therapy in MS, indicating that relapses in this phase may need treatment with higher doses than in the initial phases.