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This article explores the long-term and cyclical effects of the Pasinetti Index (PI) and their implications for income distribution and macroeconomic policy in a post-pandemic environment marked by inflationary pressures and increasingly restrictive central bank policies. It discusses the relevance of adopting a zero PI as monetary policy framework as either a short-term target or a long-term norm. The research underscores the importance of coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to achieve a balanced mix of short-term and long-term macroeconomic goals, as per the Pasinetti rule, aimed at stabilizing income distribution between rentier and non-rentier groups without compromising on a Keynesian full employment commitment. By analyzing historical data and employing a SVAR model for Canada and the United States, the study highlights the significant cyclical impact of PI fluctuations on unemployment and income distribution. The findings challenge the efficacy of rigid monetary policy rules and support a macroeconomic policy that reconciles short-term employment objectives and long-term distributional goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Recent studies in economics showed that humans are bounded rational. This being consumers, they are not perfect judges of what matters for the standard of living. While with a marked increase in economic and social wellbeing, there is a consistent rise in obesity levels, especially in the developed world. Thus, this study intends to explore the empirical and socio-economic antecedents of human obesity across countries using six global indexes. Methods: This study used the data of 40 countries between 1975 to 2018 and used the Panel FGLS Regression with the quadratic specification. Findings: The results showed that health and food indicators increase global human obesity, environment and education indicators decrease global human obesity, and economic and social indicators follow an inverted U-shaped pattern in affecting global human obesity. Originality: Previous studies have used infant mortality and life expectancy as the major health indicator in determining the standard of living while overlooking global human obesity as a major deterrent to welfare. This study has provided a holistic assessment of the causes of obesity in global contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is still a matter of great debate. And, ever since Keynes first commented on it, interwar Britain, 1918–39, has remained a particularly interesting and contentious case—not least because of its high-debt environment and turbulent business cycle. This debate has often focused on the effects of government spending, but little is known about the effects of tax changes. In fact, a number of tax reforms in the period focused on long-term and social objectives, often reflecting the personality of British Chancellors. Based on extensive historiographical research, we apply a narrative approach to the interwar period in Britain and isolate a new series of exogenous tax changes. We find that tax changes have a sizable effect on GDP, with multipliers exceeding 2 within two years. Our estimates provide new evidence on the effects of tax changes, contribute to the historical debate about fiscal policy in the interwar period and are also consistent with the sizable tax multipliers found after World War II. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We put forward a macro-financial empirical modeling framework that can examine the tails of distributions of macroeconomic variables and the implied risks. It does so without quantile regression, also allowing for non-normal distributions. The framework offers a number of relevant insights into higher moments of the US output growth distribution, as well as the effects of monetary policy and financial (risk premia) shocks on downside macroeconomic risk. This is not only from the short-run perspective but also from the long-run perspective, which has remained largely unexamined in the existing Macro-at-Risk literature. In particular, we estimate the short-run (conditional) and long-run US output growth distributions and study their evolution. The short-run analysis finds that monetary policy and financial shocks render the conditional output growth distribution asymmetric. As such, they affect downside risk over and above their impact on the conditional mean that policymakers routinely focus on. The long-run analysis indicates that US output growth left-tail risk showed a general downward trend in the two decades preceding the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), but this trend got reversed post-2008. Our examination strongly points to the adopted unconventional monetary policy framework featuring quantitative easing as a potential source of elevated long-run downside tail risk in the post-GFC period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise of asset managers as key nodes of financial intermediation has been one of the most fundamental changes in the global economy over recent years. An emerging literature on asset manager capitalism (AMC) discusses these changes and its implications, though largely in the context of corporate governance in advanced capitalist economies. This paper expands the remit of the AMC literature to spaces outside the global capitalist core, and assesses its implications, based on quantitative data on asset manager allocations and flows, and qualitative data from semi-structured interviews. We find that despite the growth of asset managers' investments into emerging markets, their presence remains limited and that the threat of exit remains present but increasingly tied with global conditions and the composition of benchmark indices. We also find that asset managers' investments are increasingly focussing on bonds, and are heavily concentrated in a few companies and sectors, revealing a marginal rather than broad-based presence. Finally, we find very limited evidence that asset managers use their voice to influence corporate governance and macroeconomic policy. Overall, asset managers do not seem to fundamentally reshape the characteristics of financial subordination of emerging markets, and the characteristics of AMCs remain, for now, specific to advanced economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy instruments, to determine the level of influence of monetary and fiscal factors on economic growth, as well as to justify ways for improving the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy coordination. Insufficient coordination of monetary and fiscal policies entails devastating economic consequences. The critical analysis of scientific publications proved that today the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies depends on the degree of balanced regulation of interest rates and inflation control. The research uses a NARDL model to capture mainstream trends in the influence of monetary and fiscal factors, as well as in the empirical study of their coordination. According to the estimations it was established that the weighted average rate of NBU instruments is absorbed to a greater extent in the monetary component of coordination, the system of managing the internal public debt – in the fiscal component. The participation of monetary authorities in the management of the national internal debt remains a debatable issue today. It is proved that the process of coordination of monetary and fiscal policies is influenced by the state of Ukraine’s economy during the war. Despite the difficult political and economic situation in Ukraine, it is necessary to focus on improving the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. In particular, the significant contribution of the NBU in financing the state budget deficit due to their purchase of government bonds needs to be resolved. Strengthening the role of macroprudential policy in the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, one of the goals of which is to counter the emergence of a systemic crisis; formation of a clearly developed coordination strategy, which would be based on clearly defined goals, set tasks on the basis of selected methods and instruments for their achievement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the long‐term causal impact of Abenomics, a comprehensive policy package aiming to revitalise the Japanese economy. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study assesses the effects of Abenomics across a variety of economic indicators. The findings reveal mixed impacts, with no evidence of Abenomics reducing budget deficits or boosting exports, but a positive effect on real GDP per capita paired with a reduction in the unemployment rate. The evidence regarding the effect on labor force participation rates is weaker, with primarily statistically insignificant increases observed. These results offer insights into the effectiveness of comprehensive policy interventions and provide lessons for policymakers globally in the midst of a global economic slowdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and neoliberalism are threat multipliers: they combine risks, increase instability and penalise disproportionately poor countries and poor people by virtue of their greater vulnerability disruption. This article examines the complex relationships between neoliberalism and climate change, and outlines a democratic economic strategy (DES) to address the transition from neoliberalism to a more dynamic, progressive and egalitarian system of accumulation, and the 'green' transition from unsustainable fossil fuel-dependent patterns of production to more diversified and sustainable economies. Both transitions must be pursued immediately, rather than gradually, separately or sequentially, for reasons of efficiency, consistency and legitimacy: the green transition will carry heavy costs and bring difficult political and economic challenges. Public support to address them will be forthcoming only through a shared commitment to transcend the destructive, polluting, exclusionary and income-concentrating logic of neoliberalism. DES offers a pathway to address these challenges and build sustainable and democratic economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy instruments, to determine the level of influence of monetary and fiscal factors on economic growth, as well as to justify ways for improving the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy coordination. Insufficient coordination of monetary and fiscal policies entails devastating economic consequences. The critical analysis of scientific publications proved that today the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies depends on the degree of balanced regulation of interest rates and inflation control. The research uses a NARDL model to capture mainstream trends in the influence of monetary and fiscal factors, as well as in the empirical study of their coordination. According to the estimations it was established that the weighted average rate of NBU instruments is absorbed to a greater extent in the monetary component of coordination, the system of managing the internal public debt – in the fiscal component. The participation of monetary authorities in the management of the national internal debt remains a debatable issue today. It is proved that the process of coordination of monetary and fiscal policies is influenced by the state of Ukraine’s economy during the war. Despite the difficult political and economic situation in Ukraine, it is necessary to focus on improving the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. In particular, the significant contribution of the NBU in financing the state budget deficit due to their purchase of government bonds needs to be resolved. Strengthening the role of macroprudential policy in the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, one of the goals of which is to counter the emergence of a systemic crisis; formation of a clearly developed coordination strategy, which would be based on clearly defined goals, set tasks on the basis of selected methods and instruments for their achievement.

This study conducts a rigorous examination of relationships that are often assumed but rarely tested within the context of Ethiopia's journey towards sustainable development. An autoregressive distributed lag model is employed using annual time series data from 1982 to 2021 to investigate the short- and long-term impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, real exchange rates, and imports on Ethiopia's economic growth. By incorporating additional control variables, this study contributes nuanced insights that were previously lacking in the literature. The findings reveal intriguing patterns that both align with and deviate from existing frameworks. Contrary to some prior studies, foreign investment consistently emerges as a significant driver of economic growth over time. However, remittances demonstrate only transient significance, highlighting the need for cautious policy considerations. The influence of exchange rates on economic growth proves to be unexpectedly complex and nonlinear, challenging conventional assumptions. The empirical validation of these multifaceted realities underscores the importance of this analysis. Furthermore, robustness tests conducted in this study confirm the reliability of the findings while shedding light on additional intricacies. For instance, the relationship between imports and growth is context-dependent and exhibits ambiguities that call for careful consideration. The theoretical and practical implications derived from this research offer valuable insights for researchers and policymakers alike. The recommendations put forth emphasize the promotion of sustained prosperity through evidence-based strategies that prioritize community development.

As the informal sector grows and lacks access to formal finance, unlocking its financial potential is crucial. Thus, this study examines innovative solutions for this essential portion of the economy and the interaction between informal and formal markets during economic crises in Nigeria. This study addresses these research questions: How does Nigeria's formal and informal financial markets interact? How does Nigeria's informal financial market affect growth? How does the informal banking sector react to a Nigerian economic shock? This study utilises the open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. DSGE model parameters were calibrated and computed using Bayesian methods as well as the Dynare 4.6.4 in Matlab R2021a. The impulse response function reveals that monetary shock increased GDP but decreased government expenditure. Examining Nigeria's fiscal, monetary, and production shocks, the study finds that monetary policy shocks increased output and decreased government expenditure, while fiscal policy shocks decreased output and interest rates. The shock indicates that reduction in government spending diminishes aggregate demand as well as the real GDP. Given the informal finance's response to monetary policy shocks, the central bank should, therefore, be more hawkish, especially in times of high inflation, to achieve macroeconomic goals. Thus, the study suggests that future research should examine how the Nigerian economy reacts to shocks like oil shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay explores the dominance of macroeconomics on economic policy by considering the policy response to the post-pandemic inflation. I argue that this emphasis on macroeconomics masks long-run structural problems, such as inequality and ecologically unsustainable economic activity. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates because it is what we do about inflation even though they attributed rising prices to Covid-related supply disruptions and the war in Ukraine. However, raising interest rates is likely to be counterproductive as it disrupts private efforts to restructure production and consumption, exacerbating the inequalities between those that can afford to invest in more fuel-efficient technologies. Instead I argue that the legacy of neoliberalism has limited the range of policy options to address sector specific disruptions that combine to effect inflation. The focus on inflation and raising interest rates has in turn, shifted the way the problem away from the issues identified during the pandemic, such as the conditions of essential workers and the care crisis, to a problem of the high cost of labor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil experienced a complete economic cycle with an ascending phase in the 2000s, followed by a decline during the following decade. Using the national accounts, the objective of this article is to trace the growth path of the Brazilian economy from the 2000s onwards through a detailed analysis of the financial balance and income flows of the institutional sectors. It will be shown that the economy has two relevant points of inflection: the first was the external shock occasioned by the 2008 global financial crisis, and the second was the change in domestic economic policy after 2015 following an austerity agenda. The article compares the financial balance of the institutional sectors at the two historical moments. It sheds new light on why the Brazilian economy entered the descending phase of the economic cycle and is stagnating and deepening its financialization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim. Substantiation of the thesis on the need to increase the annual growth of the EAEU economy by 6–8% through the implementation of a unified strategy for the accelerated development of target indicators as the level of economic development converges, their sustainable convergence and the activation of the existing production and scientific and technical potential of the Union Member States. At the same time, the nationally oriented financial policy of the Bank of Russia should play an important role.Tasks. Rationale:– the need to supplement the target development scenario presented in the Guidelines for the Economic Development of the EAEU until 2030 with a strategy for accelerated development and solving national security problems;– formation of a nationwide macroeconomic policy, including its monetary component;– carrying out deoffshorization of the economy and stopping the unauthorized export of capital;– supplementing the Eurasian economic integration with monetary, monetary, educational, scientific and technical policies and the transition to national currencies in mutual trade and investment in the EAEU, CIS, BRICS, SCO.Methods. Macroeconomic modeling, methods of mathematical statistics, big data analysis, demographic analysis.Results. The necessity of a significant refinement of the main directions of the unified state monetary policy of Russia, which ensures its entry into the sixth technological order and the irreversible convergence of the production and scientific and technical potential of the EAEU member states, is substantiated.Conclusion. The proposed comprehensive approach will make it possible to fully implement the adopted Strategic Directions for the Development of Eurasian Economic Integration until 2025, lay the foundations for a new stage of integration with the achievement of significant milestones set in the interests of the countries and peoples of our integration association.

This article investigates the effect of government partisanship on fiscal policy outputs during the three international economic crises of 1981–1984, 1990–1994 and 2008–2013. Encompassing 19–23 advanced democracies, the statistical analysis suggests that partisan effects have increased over time and are characterized, in the two last crises, by a "new asymmetry" whereby left governments pursued more contractionary fiscal policies than non-left governments over the course of the business cycle. Furthermore, it attributes left governments' endorsement of austere fiscal policies to the constraining effects of financial markets in the context of high/surging debt. This is supported by qualitative analysis of select government responses to the Global Financial Crisis, shedding new light on the new austerity that started in the early 2010s. The ideological mix with political partisanship during hard times surely is confusing to ordinary citizens. The article cautiously points to a neglected yet important international economic origin of our political discontents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article argues that policy-makers' non-expert or 'folk' ideas can affect policy outcomes in a way that challenges the assumption of economic policy-making being guided by expert ideas emanating from the realm of economics and other sciences. To substantiate this argument, the article invokes literatures on audience costs as well as on economic folk theories to highlight the power of analogies and fallacies in the formulation of policy. While political economists have focused exclusively on the power of the 'household analogy' in the area of fiscal policy, much less is known about its monetary policy equivalent, which the article introduces as the 'bank analogy'. Empirically, the analogy is assessed in the context of what is arguably a least likely case for the power of folk ideas to hold: the European Central Bank's governance of its balance sheet, the most powerful balance sheet in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the key trends in Russia's economic development. An assessment of economic growth rates for the period up to 2035 is being carried out. Based on alternative scenarios, the effectiveness of regular macroeconomic policy measures to stimulate economic growth is assessed. On the basis of econometric scenario calculations, the inefficiency of regular macroeconomic policy measures to stimulate long-term economic growth is shown. The strategic directions of economic policy are considered in order to overcome long-term stagnation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a large body of evidence documenting that many emerging market economies are subject to external financial shocks. We propose a two-country Dynamic General Equilibrium Model(DSGE) with three market imperfections: currency mismatches, moral hazard in banking and dominant currency pricing. Building upon Aoki, Benigno and Kiyotaki (2020) and Akinci, Queralto (2020), we analyze the optimal monetary policy in response to foreign interest rate shocks under the presence of the frictions. The results show that foreign monetary policy tightening leads to sharper local currency depreciation when import and export prices are set in the dominant currency compared to producer currency pricing. The optimal policy response to the foreign interest rate hike is a foreign exchange (FX) intervention with relatively strict inflation targeting. Macroprudential measures offer a modest macroeconomic and financial stabilization effect. We also conclude that domestically-produced goods inflation targeting alone is the worst monetary approach in EMs that attribute several real economy and financial imperfections. Nevertheless, allowing for integration of different monetary tools as well as introduction of FX hedging would be an interesting extension of our analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous work on the politics of monetary policy has focused on the role of distributive motives stemming from individual characteristics such as income or factoral/sectoral interests in citizens' formation of monetary policy preferences. However, the existing literature has paid little attention to how a country's overall distributive context, namely, its level of economic inequality, affects citizens' preferences vis‐à‐vis price stability and employment. This article argues that as inequality pushes more citizens below a society's average income, there is more demand for redistribution through higher employment and increased fiscal spending, each of which can be better supported by expansionary monetary policy. This means that inequality makes citizens more tolerant of inflation. This study uses the International Social Survey Program, the Integrated Values Surveys, and the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, which together include 293,100 respondents from 53 countries between the years 1976 and 2016 to demonstrate that overall, inequality significantly moderates citizens' inflation aversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The US recovery from the 1920–21 recession has been presented as a triumph of laissez-faire policies and a serious challenge to Keynesian economics. This study interrogates this claim by using previously unutilised data and examines the historical development of the early 1920s recession and recovery. The study refutes the laissez-faire view and shows that the recovery indeed fits Keynes's perspective. The deflationary recession was largely engineered by the Federal Reserve a la 1980s Volker disinflation. The recovery closely followed the reversal of tight monetary policy and was propelled by exceptionally long pent-up private consumption and residential spending. The recovery initiated the Roaring Twenties boom of weakened organised labour, rising income inequality and mounting private debt. This private debt-led boom proved unsustainable and was fraught with risks that contributed to the severity of the Great Depression. Although the recovery was not driven by fiscal policy, it cannot be seen as driven by price flexibility either. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article’s relevance lies in need for empirical testing of theoretical concepts in the new economic conditions caused by the corona crisis. The purpose of the paper is to identify the manifestations of macroeconomic instability in the period before and after the pandemic and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the use of fiscal instruments of regulatory competition to achieve the goals of the stabilization policy of the governments of countries with developed economies. The research is based on the categories of theoretical and empirical levels of knowledge. The use of the method of analysis, abstraction and synthesis, induction and deduction, as well as the system-structural method, the method of idealization, made it possible to identify new forms of manifestation of the phenomenon of fiscal regulatory competition and establish its place in the implementation of the stabilization and incentive programs of the government. It was found that the stimulation of economic activity and the increase in net exports using the instruments of fiscal neo-protectionism occurs due to a simultaneous increase in employment and a decrease in the cost of domestically produced goods, accompanied by the rise in relative consumer prices for imported goods. Using economic analysis and mathematical modelling methods confirmed the hypothesis about the stimulating effect of fiscal policy. Based on the regression analysis of the mechanism of the fiscal channel of the stabilization policy of developed countries, which influenced the dynamics of the conjuncture in the period from 2018 to 2022, a conclusion was drawn regarding the strength of its impulse. It has been found that the fiscal channel less clearly transmits the impulse from the growth of expenditures (financed by loans) to the real sector. It is assumed that in the process of signal transmission, it scatters. It has been established that in the short term, in a recession, the fiscal impulse also does not cause a jump in inflation. In the context of inflationary growth in the United States, Japan, and Germany, there is a turn towards tightening monetary policy, which limits the use of financial instruments to counter the recession and therefore increases the demand for the benefit of fiscal tools to counter the recession

The macroeconomic policies of advanced economies during the Great Recession were characterised by a curious mixture of unconventional market interventions executed through depoliticised governance structures. We explain this phenomenon by developing a theoretical framework that focuses on the ideational and institutional influence of government-related economic ideas by combining insights of constructivist institutionalism and historical institutionalism. Specifically, we argue that the dominant government-related idea of 'policy credibility' – the need to convince markets of government commitment to refrain from 'politicised' interventions – was crucial for the adoption of depoliticised macroeconomic interventionism. The ideational dominance of 'policy credibility' and its pre-crisis institutionalisation enabled significant policy interventions as long as depoliticised decision-making was maintained and consolidated. We demonstrate this argument through a comparative in-depth analysis of monetary and fiscal policy in two very different cases among advanced economies – the UK and Israel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most significant episode in the assetisation of housing (underpinning its financialisation) is often understood to be the economic restructuring that took place during the 1980s – particularly deregulation of the banking sector and credit liberalisation. Research has reported on the housing 'investor subject' that emerged during this time, as an integral part of the transition towards financialised economies. This article provides new evidence about the housing consumer subject, and its place in this transition, by drilling into UK housing policy history and its discourses around the consumer relationship with housing. Using archive data from the Parliamentary and National Archives alongside interviews with key informers, we illustrate three cases of housing policy development in which the consumer demand for, and relationship with, housing is discursively reconditioned. We conclude that the housing investor subject was pursued in housing policy reform and its discourses well before the 1980s and the economic reforms commonly identified as the causes of financialisation. In addition, these discourses are found to have been reconditioned in order to align with broader macroeconomic policy concerns of the time. The article therefore provides a rare view of assetisation from within the state apparatus, revealing how housing policy and its discourses around consumption became functionally integrated within wider macroeconomic goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An epidemiological-economic crisis presents countries with two significant challenges, in addition to the health challenge - a growing deficit due to fiscal policy measures, and a shortage of essential workers needed to manage the crisis successfully. In this study, we propose an outline for economic readiness in case of a future crisis in general, and a pandemic outbreak in particular. Through the establishment of a dedicated income-based tax-financed budget aimed at funding government excess expenditure during a crisis, and by adopting a reserve program in the essential sector of the economy, social and economic costs can be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a macro-econometric model for a typical supply constrained African economy aimed at developing a theoretical and empirical template for such policy tools that are increasingly being demanded by African ministries of finance and central banks. We concretised it by building a macro-econometric model for Rwanda. The model is designed to capture the structural characteristics of such an African economy. The Rwanda macro-econometric model has 107 equations of which 72 are endogenous. In addition, we also build a supplementary ARIMA based model with 33 equations for the exogenous variables to make the model useful for forecasting. We disaggregate the fiscal, balance of payments and money supply blocks of the model to offer an adequate picture of the macro-economy. We also do an econometric estimation of the core behavioural equations of the model using the error correction modelling approach for the period 1960–2009. The model can be easily extended further to support the budgeting, forecasting and macroeconomic policy analyses in the relevant ministries and central banks in Africa. We successfully solve the model and reproduce historical values from 1999 to 2009 and forecast major macro-variables for 2010 to 2015. We also use the model to conduct policy and external shock simulation exercise that are important for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Macroeconomic regulation has always been one of the most pressing economic issues. The paper intends to assess the impact of the government policy on maintaining macroeconomic stability on the economic growth in the Republic of Armenia. Methodologically, the study relies on the propositions of economics; applies methods of qualitative and statistical analysis, observation and synthesis. The data are sourced from the National Statistics Service of the Republic of Armenia and the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia. The paper considers the key theoretical approaches to the policy on maintaining macroeconomic stability and the major tools of its implementation, identifies positive and negative consequences of this policy for Armenia’s economic growth. The analysis of the monetary, currency, and fiscal policies of the country proves that the policy of macroeconomic stability adopted during the last 10 years leads to the decreasing rates of economic growth, especially in the long run. The ambiguity of the said policy in terms of the efficiency and balance of its outcomes confirms the necessity to reconsider its relevance in the emerging economies.

The relevance of the study lies in the consideration of transmission channels through which the influence of monetary policy carried out by the governments and central banks of the United States, Japan and Germany was realized. The purpose of the article is to consider the phenomenon of the monetary trap as a special case of an unforeseen macroeconomic reaction to the stabilization anti-crisis policy pursued by the state, which is designed to stimulate economic activity and contribute to the growth of aggregate output. The article identified the potential of economic theory (with an emphasis on the New Macroeconomic Consensus) to illuminate the current practice of state stabilization policy, taking into account new historical challenges, as well as modeling the impact of monetary instruments of stabilization policy on the potential for economic recovery of the United States, Japan and Germany. To achieve the goal of the study, scientific and special research methods were used, namely: methods of analysis, abstraction and synthesis, induction and deduction, as well as a system-structural method; hypothetical-deductive method; idealization method; methods of economic and mathematical modeling. An analysis of the consequences of the state policy to counteract the downturn in the economic situation as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic made it possible to periodize it and establish that the stabilization measures at the first stage were mainly of a fiscal nature, while at the second stage they were focused on monetary containment of the volatility of commodity prices. A regression express analysis of the relationship between monetary incentives and changes in GDP and inflation in the United States, Japan, and Germany made it possible to establish that the influence of monetary impulses on price stability manifests itself over a longer period of time and depends on the influence of many factors, including price fluctuations, changes in nominal wages, exchange rate dynamics and expectations of economic agents

During the Trump administration, the American economy experienced some of the best results sinceWorld War II. Unemployment and poverty were at record lows and the stock market was booming. AtAt the same time, the fiscal deficit and public debt increased, while the harm done to the rules-basedthe international trading system is yet to be seen. Using historical data, the aim of this paper is to provide acomparative overview of some of the hallmarks of Trump’s economic policy taking a critical look ateach one of them: tax cuts, deregulation, and protectionism. While the pre-pandemic U.S. economy wasin some aspects truly impressive, it is difficult to disentangle to what extent this was owed to thepresident’s economic policies and to what extent this was simply due to a positive external environment,which should be the subject of future scientific research.

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between nominal and real GDP growth for G7 countries for the period 1971 – 2018. A visual inspection of the data indicates the presence of a threshold, above which the structure of the relationship between nominal and real GDP growth rates changes from a positive one to a flat one. Moreover, the volatility of real growth is observed to be higher at high rates of nominal GDP growth. We first test for the presence of a two regime non-linearity by using the Sup F test of Andrews (1993). Due to the presence of heteroskedasticity we also apply the Sup MZ test of Ahmed et al. (2017). Both tests operate under an unknown change point and the latter also allows for heteroskedasticity. The results of the tests point to the presence of a ‘demand deficiency ’regime for low nominal demand growth rates and to a ‘harmful inflation ’regime for higher nominal GDP growth rates, these results have strong implications for guiding recent policy discussions on nominal GDP targeting.

The economic growth of emerging Sub-Saharan African countries is investigated in this study, with the aim of determining the relative impacts of foreign development assistance (FDA) and macroeconomic policies. The GMM and VECM models are respectively employed in estimating the long-run and short-run impacts. The short-run results indicate that FDA strongly complemented fiscal policy only, in facilitating economic growth within the period 1980–2019. The long-run results, on the other hand, show that FDA complemented both monetary and fiscal policies in driving growth. The results further reveal that exchange rate played a non-complementary role, and economic growth did not respond significantly to its own lag. Generally, the estimated impacts conform to theoretical expectations of the models. The results are also considered reliable for policy making. The possible policy measures emanating from the estimation results include sustenance of FDA inflow, reinforcement of monetary policy framework, maintenance of fiscal policy framework, enhancing efficiency of the exchange rate system, and allowing market forces to drive the economy.

The macroeconomic policy environment affects the internal governance of microenterprises, which may provide opportunities for management to benefit from stock sales while decreasing its motivation to manipulate stock transactions. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018, we study the impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on opportunistic insider trading. The results show that macroeconomic policy uncertainty helps restrain the opportunistic trading of shares held by management. When macroeconomic policies are uncertain, enterprises improve their internal governance. Furthermore, strengthening equity governance helps reduce management’s opportunistic use of the uncertainty of the policy environment, highlighting the advantageous effect of macroeconomic policy uncertainty and helping regulators standardize managerial behavior and promote the governance effect of macroeconomic policy.

Foreign aid is one source of physical capital accumulation in Ethiopia. It is also a main media of government revenue in meeting increasing trends of government expenditure. To investigate the impact of foreign aid flow on economic growth, various empirical studies were conducted, but they came up with mixed result. This leads to raise question of why impact of aid on economic growth in Ethiopia continues to be paradoxical in its findings. To assess the effectiveness of foreign aid in Ethiopia; this study sets predictability of foreign aid and economic growth in Ethiopia as a general objective. Specifically, the study sought to examine the contribution of foreign aid and the macroeconomic policy environment to economic growth in the country. In order to meet the aforementioned objective, the study employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach over the period 1985–2019. The empirical finding shows that foreign aid has a positive role in economic growth in the long run but its short run effect is found to be insignificant. Again, this finding also reveals that both in the short run and long run the predictability of foreign aid has a positive effect both on economic growth. Macroeconomic policy index also has a positive effect in the long run, but its short run effect become negative. Based on the listed empirical finding, the study came up with policy recommendation; the government should allocate the external assistance on the successful development projects rather than simply on consumption. Furthermore, for the persistent and predictable flow of foreign aid overtime, joint mechanism of transparency has to be developed between Ethiopian government and donor communities.

This paper seeks to understand the link between resource governance and investor expectations in resource-rich countries. We test whether voluntary membership in the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a public-private partnership that promotes transparency and accountability in the extractives sector, behaves as a credible signalling mechanism to investors that governments in resource-rich countries can manage resource revenue and adhere to sustainable fiscal policies in the medium and long run. Using an interrupted time series analysis coupled with a fixed effects model, we examine whether investor expectations on the price of sovereign debt behave as a credible signalling mechanism in the presence of certain conditions. Results indicate that in some cases there is a significant change in spread on the default price of sovereign debt as a result of announcement of either EITI candidacy or EITI compliance. However, it is clear that EITI membership alone is not a sufficient signal to investors that a country can effectively manage its resource revenues in the long run because the result of EITI implementation is heavily influenced by country-specific conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to investigate the determinants of supply and demand-side factors of house price dynamics and their impact on household indebtedness in Namibia. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used. The findings support the hypothesis' that supply-side and demand-side factors had a significant effect on house price as well as household indebtedness. It was found that money supply, working population, construction cost index, mortgage loans, previous quarter house prices, and current GDP were found to be the key determinants of both supply and demand-side factors of house-price dynamics in Namibia. Additionally, an increase in mortgage loans would increase household indebtedness in the short run and was found to be the key determinant of household indebtedness in Namibia. This indicates that an expansionary monetary policy could address the twin problem of rising house prices and household indebtedness. Policy implications derived from the study indicate that although monetary policy can be used to address the issues of escalating house prices and indebtedness, this policy intervention may be limited because Namibia does not have an autonomy regarding its monetary policy due to its currency board operations arrangement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For most of the past decade, unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) have affected the wealth of savers, renters and younger generations. These policies, which enlarge central bank balance sheets – supporting credit expansion in the economy – but have no reliable mechanism for reversal, raise the simultaneous risk of higher inflation and deflation. In this paper, we critique UMPs by drawing on extant literature and empirical data that elucidate the undesired economic effects they cultivate. In particular, we focus on the implications of UMPs on efficient portfolio holdings by proposing an intuitive ex‐ante measure of dynamic efficiency loss that has applications for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of fiscal policy and private consumption on economic growth among the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) spanning from 1988 to 2017 using the Panel Pool Mean Group. The results depicted that the government’s recurrent expenditure for growth was inversely but significant to economic growth, while capital expenditure was positively and statistically significant to explain economic growth in Nigeria. It can be seen that capital expenditure is vital for economic growth. Besides, private consumption’s negative effect on economic growth was a disconnection between economic output and private consumption. The results further showed that tax revenues in ECOWAS countries had a positive and significant influence on economic growth. Therefore, the study recommends re-visit government policy(ies) channeling government spending to increase ECOWAS output rates and spur regional economic growth.

GDP per capita in Bulgaria has been systematically lagging behind the corresponding indicator for former member states of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, which later joined the EU. Bulgaria's economic problems are somewhat traditional and remain unresolved. Bulgaria is the most corrupt country in the EU. Legislation is unsustainable, chaotic and ineffective. The National Assembly often disregards the operation and requirements of its own laws. Bulgaria systematically maintains one of the lowest ratios of accumulation. The country is negligent in public investment and lags behind the other EU-countries. The overall regulatory and business climate in the country does not stimulate foreign capital inflow. A significant flight of local capital abroad has been observed. Bulgaria needs to maintain annual GDP growth rates in the range of 5-7% in order to be able to leave its last-ranking in the EU. The acceleration of economic development requires the raising of the population’s general political and economic literacy, as well as improvement of the political infrastructure in accordance with modern standards. The functions and forms of macroeconomic policy should be reconsidered in accordance with modern standards, taking into account the impacts of our de facto membership in a monetary union.

The subject of the study are organizational and economic relations arising in the process of administrative and legal support of management of integrated economic structures in a globalized business processes. Methodology. Instrumental and methodological apparatus of the study consists of the applied methods of organizational economic analysis, statistical methods, sample observation, economic and mathematical modeling method, grouping, generalization, expert evaluations, methods of economic theory, marketing, etc. The aim of the article is to study the basics of administrative and legal support of integrated economic structures management in the globalization of business processes. The results of the study consist in the development of specific provisions and recommendations aimed at improving the management of the formation and integrated economic structures functioning in the context of business processes globalization. The proposed recommendations will improve the level of administrative and legal support of corporate governance and efficiency of companies' groups. Conclusion. The following conditions of effective management of integrated economic structures in the context of business processes globalization are highlighted: compliance with the target unity in the activities of integrated economic entities; orientation of participants to achieve a synergetic effect of integration interaction; creation and maintenance of economic motivation for joint activities; orientation to reduce corporate risks of integration interaction; compatibility of resource potentials of the main interacting organizations; ensuring the controllability of integration interaction processes in the interests of the owner. Organization of rational economic relations within them and with external structures is of great importance to improve the efficiency of economic activities of integrated economic structures. These are relations with public authorities (GR-management), suppliers and customers, banks, insurance organizations, employees of enterprises, owners. The effectiveness of the group of companies largely depends on the availability and level of system development of internal regulatory management of consolidated finances. The purpose of internal regulations system is to fill gaps in the norms of existing administrative and legal legislation in the regulation of economic, managerial and financial activities of integrated economic structures.

Energy and climate policies play an increasingly important role in the world in the era of climate change and rising energy prices. More often, the importance of the development of the energy sector and climate protection is seen from the point of view of the expenditures that will need to be absorbed in the economy, with the potential for increased energy prices. However, it should be remembered that this is also related to the issue of fuel poverty and the inability to meet basic energy needs by parts of society. The aim of the paper is to assess the importance of macroeconomic policy instruments in reducing fuel poverty, using Poland as an example. It will be examined whether and how the government influenced this phenomenon (directly or indirectly), through which instruments, and which instruments (fiscal, monetary or energy-climate policy) played the most important role in shaping the scale of fuel poverty in Poland, with an emphasis on the role of monetary and fiscal policy instruments. The analysis covered the period from 2004 to mid-2021. The results of the research showed that in Poland there is a lack of policy directly aimed at reducing fuel poverty, and the government affects the scale of fuel poverty indirectly mainly through macroeconomic policy instruments, i.e., fiscal and monetary policy instruments. The main and most effective instruments for reducing fuel poverty in Poland are social transfers. Other instruments that have a statistically significant impact on this poverty rate are the level of tax burdens and short-term interest rates. The analysis also revealed some opportunities for effective fuel poverty reduction policies. It was proven that in addition to fiscal policy, monetary policy, which would stimulate a decrease in short-term interest rates, is also an effective way to reduce the fuel poverty rate in Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In South Africa, high levels of wealth inequality have persisted since 1994, to the extent that 1% of the population owns 50% of the wealth. This study examines how macroeconomic policies influenced wealth inequality in South Africa over the period 2010 to 2019 using a behavioural life-cycle model. Despite a decrease in wealth inequality over this period, the extent of this decrease is almost negligible. Results show government's current policy model to redirect wealth from a very small tax base that is under increasing financial strain is unable to meet wealth redistributive targets. The South African government should change the wealth redistribution policy from redistribution through predominantly lump sums to creating an environment in which private enterprises are able to absorb the labour capital that South Africa possesses. An open labour market would support private and foreign direct investment into the economy, thereby strengthening economic growth and upliftment through increased income and the consequent ability to accumulate wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the paper, we calculate Okun’s coefficients in the regions of Poland. We compare the coefficients estimated for each region separately with the calculations obtained from seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models. The results reveal that the latter method gives better estimates, because shocks in output are highly correlated across regions. Then, we consider the question concerning the existence of macroeconomic “clubs” among Polish regions. Two such clubs are found: the northwest of Poland and the eastern border region. Finally, some conclusions concerning economic policy preventing unemployment are drawn.

This paper presents an update on the business cycle and growth rate cycle chronology of the Indian economy by identifying the peaks and troughs in the quarterly released real GDP time series. The results reveal that the Indian economy witnessed three classical contractions and nine growth rate deceleration phases between April 1996 and March 2021. Other business cycle features, viz., duration, amplitude and sharpness are also derived. The results confirmed the existence of long expansions and short contractions as per the classical approach. The growth rate cycle of India, however, displays symmetric nature with similar duration, amplitude and sharpness being observed in acceleration as well as deceleration phases. Further, this study makes an attempt to contribute to the dating methodology by highlighting the defects in them and thereby proposing modifications to rectify the defects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]