1. Validation of the SCORE2 risk prediction algorithm in a Portuguese population: A new model to estimate 10-year cardiovascular disease incidence in Europe.
- Author
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Temtem M, Mendonça MI, Santos M, Sá D, Sousa F, Freitas S, Borges S, Henriques E, Rodrigues M, Soares C, Rodrigues R, Serrão M, Drumond A, Sousa AC, and Palma Reis R
- Subjects
- Humans, Middle Aged, Male, Female, Risk Assessment methods, Portugal epidemiology, Incidence, Time Factors, Europe epidemiology, Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases epidemiology, Cardiovascular Diseases mortality, Algorithms
- Abstract
Introduction and Objectives: Subjects without cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD) may suffer from subclinical atherosclerosis, and are at increased risk for atherosclerotic CV events (ASCVE). The ESC/EAS risk SCORE was updated by SCORE2, which estimates 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in European populations aged 40-69 years without established CVD or diabetes. Our aim was to compare the two ESC/EAS risk scores and to validate SCORE2 in our population., Methods: A total of 1071 individuals (age 57.2±6.1 years; 75.2% male) without CVD or diabetes, from GENEMACOR study controls, were analyzed over 5.4±3.9 years. The population was stratified into risk categories according to the two scores, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Harrell's C-index assessed the scores' performance. Calibration was performed using the goodness-of-fit test, and occurrence of the first event assessed by Cox regression. Kaplan-Meier analysis estimated SCORE2 survival., Results: SCORE stratified subjects into four risk categories: low (7.4%), moderate (46.5%), high (25.3%) and very high (20.8%), and SCORE2 into three: low-to-moderate (24.7%), high (59.0%) and very high (16.2%). SCORE presented good discrimination for CV mortality (AUC=0.838; C-index=0.834, 95% CI: 0.728-0.940), as did SCORE2 for total CV events (AUC=0.744; C-index=0.728, 95% CI: 0.648-0.808). Calibration did not show a disparity between observed and expected ASCVE. The probability of ASCVE was eight times higher in very-high-risk SCORE2 (p=0.001), and three times in the high-risk group (p=0.049). Event-free survival was 99%, 90% and 72% in the low-to-moderate, high and very-high-risk categories, respectively (p<0.0001)., Conclusions: SCORE2 improved population stratification by identifying higher-risk patients, enabling early preventive measures. It showed good discriminative ability for all ASCVE., (Copyright © 2024 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2024
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