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We estimate the determinants (terms of trade, tradable to non-tradable price differentials, interest rate differentials, forward exchange rate and risk premium) of the Mexican bilateral real exchange rate (q) for the short and long run by using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL, Pesaran and Shin et al. (2001)) for Mexico (2001.01–2022.12). The inclusion of commercial and financial variables and finding empirical evidence of cointegration only for 2009.01–2022.12 are the main contributions. Our results indicate no cointegrating relationship either for the entire sample, or for 2001.01–2008.12. This finding has to do with the increasing international financialization process, after the 2008–2009 Great Financial Crisis. Using a double log model we find that: a) there is a strong short-run autoregressive effect of q of up to 4 lags (0.75), b) that the Balassa-Samuelson Effect is the largest in the model (-0.27 and -1.11 for short and long terms), c) the next most important factor is the terms of trade (-0.126 and -0.51, respectively), d) there are considerable, although lesser, effects of financial variables: forward exchange rate (0.0155 and 0.063, respectively) and risk-premium (0.009 and 0.036, respectively), e) there is a clear long-term trend of real depreciation expressed by the trend of 0.0020, which suggests that the PPP hypothesis applies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By contrasting the Great Depression and the Coronacrisis, we demonstrate that narrative economics (Shiller, 2017) is key in the analysis of economic fluctuations. We note the importance of the populist narrative to understand the economic and health outcomes of the Coronacrisis in Mexico and highlight the role of the predominance of different economic paradigms in economic policy decision-making. We suggest that, just as in 1929, by following orthodox primary fiscal balance sheet policies at the cost of contracting government investment, the Mexican economy will undergo a long and painful recovery process compared to its global peers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the labor market in Mexico has become increasingly precarious, as the proportion of the employed population that receives low wages has risen and the critical conditions of occupation have grown exponentially. To enrich the concept of labor precariousness, we aggregated three additional variables. Through a logit model -with data from the Social Mobility Survey in Mexico 2017-we proved that a set of variables that are external to individuals have statistically significant effects on the employment trajectory and social mobility of the employed population. These results empirically validate The Great Gatsby Curve for Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses Kaldor's first law to provide an explanation for Mexico's low economic growth over the last four decades. The starting point for analysis is the hypothesis that the lack of dynamism in total production (non-manufacturing) is due to slow momentum in manufacturing and, in particular, to the fact that the Kaldor coefficient has decreased with trade liberalization. Estimates were made (1980.1- 2017.2) using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and rolling regression (recursive estimations). These estimates have been useful in solving the problem of serial correlation and have contributed towards a better statistical evaluation of the evolution of the Kaldor coefficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We argue that the main constraint for the Mexican economy to grow remains inside the structural deficit of the current account as well as in the real exchange rate level. An annual structural econometric model (1970-99) (estimated through weighted two-stage least squares) is estimated to identify the determinants of the four balances that constitute the current account balance. The main objective is to detect only long-run relationships and, consequently, to analyze the sensibility of the overall system to the exchange rate. By doing this, we enforce the introspective features of Thirlwall's Law through what may be called the "extended exchange rate Thirlwall's Law." A detailed analysis of the joint residuals coming out from the structural estimations are performed in order to demonstrate that all the variables involved in the behavioral equations are cointegrated, since they are all "white noise" and normally distributed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]