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We estimate the determinants (terms of trade, tradable to non-tradable price differentials, interest rate differentials, forward exchange rate and risk premium) of the Mexican bilateral real exchange rate (q) for the short and long run by using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL, Pesaran and Shin et al. (2001)) for Mexico (2001.01–2022.12). The inclusion of commercial and financial variables and finding empirical evidence of cointegration only for 2009.01–2022.12 are the main contributions. Our results indicate no cointegrating relationship either for the entire sample, or for 2001.01–2008.12. This finding has to do with the increasing international financialization process, after the 2008–2009 Great Financial Crisis. Using a double log model we find that: a) there is a strong short-run autoregressive effect of q of up to 4 lags (0.75), b) that the Balassa-Samuelson Effect is the largest in the model (-0.27 and -1.11 for short and long terms), c) the next most important factor is the terms of trade (-0.126 and -0.51, respectively), d) there are considerable, although lesser, effects of financial variables: forward exchange rate (0.0155 and 0.063, respectively) and risk-premium (0.009 and 0.036, respectively), e) there is a clear long-term trend of real depreciation expressed by the trend of 0.0020, which suggests that the PPP hypothesis applies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By contrasting the Great Depression and the Coronacrisis, we demonstrate that narrative economics (Shiller, 2017) is key in the analysis of economic fluctuations. We note the importance of the populist narrative to understand the economic and health outcomes of the Coronacrisis in Mexico and highlight the role of the predominance of different economic paradigms in economic policy decision-making. We suggest that, just as in 1929, by following orthodox primary fiscal balance sheet policies at the cost of contracting government investment, the Mexican economy will undergo a long and painful recovery process compared to its global peers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the labor market in Mexico has become increasingly precarious, as the proportion of the employed population that receives low wages has risen and the critical conditions of occupation have grown exponentially. To enrich the concept of labor precariousness, we aggregated three additional variables. Through a logit model -with data from the Social Mobility Survey in Mexico 2017-we proved that a set of variables that are external to individuals have statistically significant effects on the employment trajectory and social mobility of the employed population. These results empirically validate The Great Gatsby Curve for Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses Kaldor's first law to provide an explanation for Mexico's low economic growth over the last four decades. The starting point for analysis is the hypothesis that the lack of dynamism in total production (non-manufacturing) is due to slow momentum in manufacturing and, in particular, to the fact that the Kaldor coefficient has decreased with trade liberalization. Estimates were made (1980.1- 2017.2) using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and rolling regression (recursive estimations). These estimates have been useful in solving the problem of serial correlation and have contributed towards a better statistical evaluation of the evolution of the Kaldor coefficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We argue that the main constraint for the Mexican economy to grow remains inside the structural deficit of the current account as well as in the real exchange rate level. An annual structural econometric model (1970-99) (estimated through weighted two-stage least squares) is estimated to identify the determinants of the four balances that constitute the current account balance. The main objective is to detect only long-run relationships and, consequently, to analyze the sensibility of the overall system to the exchange rate. By doing this, we enforce the introspective features of Thirlwall's Law through what may be called the "extended exchange rate Thirlwall's Law." A detailed analysis of the joint residuals coming out from the structural estimations are performed in order to demonstrate that all the variables involved in the behavioral equations are cointegrated, since they are all "white noise" and normally distributed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The misery index (MI) was devised to summarize the most evident costs for a society, attempting to objectively measure the loss in general welfare. It has been remarked in the literature that economic growth exerts a negative impact on the MI; however, analyses of this relationship in the tourism field have been neglected. This study assessed the effectiveness of the tourism sector at improving welfare conditions by measuring the impact of tourism GDP on the misery index and providing a theoretical framework for the relationship between tourism and the MI. A quantitative analysis was conducted using quarterly time series data for the period 2005Q1–2021Q2. Firstly, the existence of a long-term relationship was tested by using the Toda–Yamamoto procedure, and secondly, by applying linear and nonlinear ARDL models. The main results show that tourism can help to reduce the loss of welfare mirrored by the MI. These findings have policy implications, as they provide evidence that expanding the tourism sector counters the MI, and, consequently, the economic malaises derived from it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, all regions in Indonesia have had negative economic growth. It also increased the poverty rate in the country. The government must allocate pro-growth and poverty reduction programs to maintain economic growth and simultaneously reduce poverty. This study aims to measure the relative efficiency of pro-growth poverty reduction spending of local governments in seven regions in Indonesia. This study compares the efficiency scores before and during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2015 to 2019 and 2020. The inputs are five types of government spending: education, health, economic, social protection, and infrastructure. The outputs are economic growth and poverty reduction. Data envelopment analysis with an output-oriented model and a return to scale variable approach is applied. The results show that the highest average local government efficiency score was in Kalimantan, with the lowest being in Sulawesi. The efficiency scores of local governments in the COVID-19 pandemic differ between regions: it remained stable in Kalimantan, increased in Java-Bali, Sumatra, and Sulawesi, and experienced a decline in Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, and Papua. The study concludes that economic growth and poverty reduction can simultaneously measure government efficiency. To be relatively efficient, local governments need to consider allocating pro-growth poverty reduction spending to improve the conditions of both outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is bad economic news a self-fulfilling prophecy? This paper examines the local employment effects of exposure to pessimistic economic news. By combining detailed data on newspaper subscriptions with a tabulation of negative newspaper stories, the flow of such news across the United States during the 2008 recession is reconstructed at county and quarterly levels. The resulting data set is used to estimate the causal impact of such news on unemployment, hiring, and separation rates. Exposure to pessimistic news is found to suppress hiring and total employment during the early stages of the recession by up to 40% compared to prerecession levels; such news can account for some 7% of the total reduction in employment between 2007 and 2010. Content analysis of the articles in question rules out the possibility that this relationship is driven by reverse causation, that is, newspapers merely reporting poor economic performance. Further analysis of Google search data suggests that the effect is mediated by changes in public attitude caused by exposure to negative news. These findings imply that labor market outcomes can differ due to arbitrary differences in the dispersal of economic information. Bearings on economic theory, including the notions of 'sunspots' and 'animal spirits,' are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze, by means of the difference version of Okun's law, the relationship between tourism sector growth and unemployment in Mexico during the period 2000Q2–2018Q4. The results show that tourism growth is a palliative for unemployment, whereas unemployment reduces the growth of the tourism sector. The results also show that the relationship between the mentioned variables becomes stronger during an economic crisis and weaker during expansion periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]