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Background & Aims: Ongoing transmission of HCV infections is associated with risk factors such as drug injection, needlestick injuries, and men who have sex with men (MSM). Ways of transmission, the course of acute infection, changes of virologic features, and incidence over time are not well known. Methods: Over a period of 10 years, n = 161 patients with recently acquired HCV infection (RAHC) (median follow-up 6.8 years) were prospectively enrolled. NS5B sequencing was performed to re-evaluate the HCV genotype (GT) and for phylogenetic analyses. Results: Patients with RAHC were mainly male (92.5%), MSM (90.1%), and HIV-coinfected (86.3%). Transmission risk factors for MSM and non-MSM were sexual risk behaviour (100 and 6.3%, respectively), injection drug use (9.7 and 37.5%, respectively), and nasal drug use (15.2 and 0%, respectively). Spontaneous and interferon- or direct-acting antiviral-based clearance rates were 13.6, 84.3 and 93.4%, respectively. Mean RAHC declined from 19.8 in the first to 13.2 in the past five study years. Although the majority of infections was caused by HCV GT1a, the frequency of HCV GT4d and slightly HCV GT3a increased over time. No relevant clustering of HCV isolates was observed in non-MSM. However, 45% of HCV GT1a and 100% of HCV GT4d MSM cases clustered with MSM isolates from other countries. Travel-associated infections were supported by personal data in an MSM subgroup. No international clustering was detected in MSM with HCV GT1b or HCV GT3a. Conclusions: RAHCs were mainly diagnosed in HIV-coinfected MSM patients and were associated with sexual risk behaviour. Spontaneous clearance rates were low, and phylogenetic clusters were observed in the majority of patients. Impact and Implications: We evaluated the occurrence and transmission of recently acquired HCV infections (RAHCs) over a period of 10 years. Our data demonstrate that the presence of RAHC was mainly found in HIV-coinfected MSM, with internationally connected transmission networks being observed in the majority of patients. Spontaneous clearance rates were low, and reinfection rates increased mainly driven by a small subset of MSM patients with high-risk behaviour.

Background: In December 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) reported a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VoC) which is now named B.1.1.7. Based on initial data from the UK and later data from other countries, this variant was estimated to have a transmission fitness advantage of around 40–80 % (Volz et al., 2021; Leung et al., 2021; Davies et al., 2021). Aim: This study aims to estimate the transmission fitness advantage and the effective reproductive number of B.1.1.7 through time based on data from Switzerland. Methods: We generated whole genome sequences from 11.8 % of all confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in Switzerland between 14 December 2020 and 11 March 2021. Based on these data, we determine the daily frequency of the B.1.1.7 variant and quantify the variant’s transmission fitness advantage on a national and a regional scale. Results: We estimate B.1.1.7 had a transmission fitness advantage of 43–52 % compared to the other variants circulating in Switzerland during the study period. Further, we estimate B.1.1.7 had a reproductive number above 1 from 01 January 2021 until the end of the study period, compared to below 1 for the other variants. Specifically, we estimate the reproductive number for B.1.1.7 was 1.24 [1.07–1.41] from 01 January until 17 January 2021 and 1.18 [1.06–1.30] from 18 January until 01 March 2021 based on the whole genome sequencing data. From 10 March to 16 March 2021, once B.1.1.7 was dominant, we estimate the reproductive number was 1.14 [1.00–1.26] based on all confirmed cases. For reference, Switzerland applied more non-pharmaceutical interventions to combat SARS-CoV-2 on 18 January 2021 and lifted some measures again on 01 March 2021. Conclusion: The observed increase in B.1.1.7 frequency in Switzerland during the study period is as expected based on observations in the UK. In absolute numbers, B.1.1.7 increased exponentially with an estimated doubling time of around 2–3.5 weeks. To monitor the ongoing spread of B.1.1.7, our plots are available online.

Epidemiological models are widely used to analyze the spread of diseases such as the global COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2. However, all models are based on simplifying assumptions and often on sparse data. This limits the reliability of parameter estimates and predictions.In this manuscript, we demonstrate the relevance of these limitations and the pitfalls associated with the use of overly simplistic models. We considered the data for the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, as an example, and perform parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and model selection for a range of established epidemiological models. Amongst others, we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, parameter and prediction profile calculation algorithms.Our results show that parameter estimates and predictions obtained for several established models on the basis of reported case numbers can be subject to substantial uncertainty. More importantly, estimates were often unrealistic and the confidence/credibility intervals did not cover plausible values of critical parameters obtained using different approaches. These findings suggest, amongst others, that standard compartmental models can be overly simplistic and that the reported case numbers provide often insufficient information for obtaining reliable and realistic parameter values, and for forecasting the evolution of epidemics.

Reproducibility and reusability of the results of data-based modeling studies are essential. Yet, there has been-so far-no broadly supported format for the specification of parameter estimation problems in systems biology. Here, we introduce PEtab, a format which facilitates the specification of parameter estimation problems using Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) models and a set of tab-separated value files describing the observation model and experimental data as well as parameters to be estimated. We already implemented PEtab support into eight well-established model simulation and parameter estimation toolboxes with hundreds of users in total. We provide a Python library for validation and modification of a PEtab problem and currently 20 example parameter estimation problems based on recent studies.