Search

In an age of 'radical uncertainty,' state capacity proves critical for countries to contain 'wicked crises' and improve the resilience of societies. At the same time, authoritarian populism has come to dominate politics in several countries. The impact of populist leadership on state capacity, however, remains an under-researched theme. We explore how populist rule has impeded effective management of the COVID-19 pandemic by weakening state capacity. We compare Brazil and Turkey as cases with similar degrees of state capacity but diverging pandemic management performance. We also examine South Korea as a benchmark case combining high state capacity and effective leadership. We show that state capacity is central in managing 'wicked crises,' but populist leadership undermines it through a set of mechanisms. On a broader scale, we aim to contribute to the debate by exploring the interactions among crises, state capacity, and populist rule. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The May 2023 elections in Turkey are puzzling because public support for President Erdoğan did not erode despite political-economic failures of considerable magnitude. The economy was ailing, the government's performance in containing natural disasters was dismal, and oscillations in foreign policy were perplexing. Yet, Erdoğan managed to win elections once again, giving him the mandate to continue ruling the country over the next five years. What explains this political outcome in the face of 'multiple governance crises'? We adopt Albert O. Hirschman's 'exit, voice, and loyalty' framework to explain the multiple but interrelated sources of the resilience of authoritarian populism in Turkey. We suggest the 'exit, voice, and loyalty' equilibrium in the 2023 Turkish elections requires an integrated analysis along two dimensions, each interacting with and mutually reinforcing the other: the economy-identity nexus and the domestic-external nexus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What does the enduring rule of Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tell us about the resilience of authoritarian populism despite economic and governance crises? This essay argues that a key source of authoritarian resilience lies in the mutually reinforcing interaction of state capture and market capture. The AKP government not only established firm control over state institutions but also reshaped state-market relations in a way that helped the party build an extensive network that closely ties different segments of society to the state. The authors maintain that the fallout from Turkey's growing crisis of governance is not felt evenly across society and thus defies expectations that economic and governance crises necessarily result in the downfall of an authoritarian-populist regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on trading states has advanced our understanding of foreign economic policy dynamics, but what constitutes a proper trading state and determines its resilience remains somewhat unclear. This article contributes to the literature by developing a political economy framework to assess the role of 'state capacity' in conditioning Turkey's foreign economic policies. Using Turkey as a case, we argue that states are more likely to show suboptimal economic engagement in case of weak state capacity, as (i) they fail to pursue effective industrial policy resulting in low exit costs, (ii) business elites cannot put pressure on the political leadership for the preservation of existing trade ties in the event of an external shock, and (iii) weak financial support mechanisms lead to insufficient assistance to national firms operating abroad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future of liberal democracy appears to be uncertain. This article develops a holistic approach to examine the prospects of liberal democracy by focusing on how three main regime types—that is, "established democratic regimes," "hybrid regimes," and "established authoritarian regimes"—interact with each other. We argue structural global political economy trends, which largely created the current authoritarian populist tide, remain strong despite signs of democratic renewal emerged with the recent new green Keynesian turn in established Western democracies, a more unified transatlantic response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and growing political-economic fragility of key hybrid regimes ruled by authoritarian populist leaders. Also, the resilience of various types of autocracies which co-exist and reinforce one another through economic linkages and political coalitions should not be underestimated, especially demonstrative effects of the Russia–China partnership. Both democratic and authoritarian forms of capitalism face serious problems of income and wealth inequality, raising challenges over "performance legitimacy" in both regime types. In this context, the performance and political-economic orientation of hybrid regimes will have a crucial bearing on the fortunes of liberal democracy on a global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the literature generally frames crises as catalysts for organisational learning, most theories focus on 'success' stories of learning – ex post facto explanations of why certain ideas gained traction after a specific crisis. Less emphasis has been placed on lessons that were likely to be drawn, but were not. In probing this point, we explore the European Union's selective learning after the recent Eurozone crisis. Reforms were mostly top-down institutional and macroeconomic ones, while good practices developed by individual European states in the domain of accountability were ignored. In particular, we focus on the absence of a truth commission, an independent institutional mechanism mandated to carry out a forensic investigation of crisis management and convert past policy failures into lessons for future institutional reform. Why, despite the direct exposure of EU policymakers to these commissions, did this institutional mechanism not travel to Brussels? Drawing on semi-structured elite interviews and analyses of primary sources, we argue only organisations with an embedded institutional capacity for self-reflection (meta-learning) possess the required institutional skills to put certain issues into the spotlight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional literature on the role of middle powers emphasises the importance of soft power, niche diplomacy and coalition building. This article explores a case of unusual middle power activism with a focus on recent Turkish foreign policy behaviour. It demonstrates how the interaction of domestic politics and external dynamics produced an unusual degree of foreign policy activism, going well beyond conventional middle power behaviour, with the government increasingly employing coercive diplomacy and militaristic methods. We demonstrate that unusual middle power activism in a shifting international order yielded 'populist dividends' to the ruling elite in the short run but led to a 'triple governance crisis' in the economy, politics and foreign policy, with each element feeding into the others in a path-dependent fashion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A decade after the global financial turmoil, a new wave of crises is haunting the global South. This pattern is different from previous crisis episodes. Powerful shifts in the international order provide new policy space for emerging powers to manage their economic problems in a heterodox fashion. Key Western-led institutions no longer enjoy a monopoly in dictating the terms of financial assistance for countries in economic difficulty, as non-Western powers increasingly challenge the orthodox Washington Consensus paradigm. The present paper attempts to locate Turkey's ongoing economic crisis in a comparative-historical context. Its central argument posits that the current crisis is the reflection of a fragile and unconsolidated presidential system and its associated mode of economic governance with state capitalist features. Turkey's heterodox crisis allows us to draw attention to the complex interplay of global power transitions in a post-liberal international order and domestic political constellations during an era of growing authoritarian populism, generating a new equilibrium with rather unique features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkish foreign policy has dramatically transformed over the last two decades. In the first decade of the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) rule, the 'logic of interdependence' constituted the driving motive of Turkish foreign policy. In the second decade, however, the 'logic of interdependence' and the soft power-driven 'mediator–integrator' role were gradually replaced with a quest for 'strategic autonomy', accompanied by interventionism, unilateralism and coercive diplomacy. This article explores the causes of this dramatic shift. We argue that 'strategic autonomy', which goes beyond a moderate level of status-seeking compatible with Turkey's material power credentials, has a double connotation in the Turkish context. First, it constitutes a framework for the Turkish ruling elite to align with the non-western great powers and balance the US-led hierarchical order. Second, and more importantly, it serves as a legitimating foreign policy discourse for the government to mobilize its electoral base at home, fragment opposition and accrue popular support. We conclude that the search for autonomy from its western allies and the move towards the Russia–China axis has led to Turkey's isolation and permitted the emergence of new forms of dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU faces an existential crisis. The 'liberal core', which played an important role in transforming the illiberal regimes in much of the post-war period, suffers from a series of setbacks. This paper argues that the possibility of reverse transformation – that is, the power of the emergent illiberal bloc to influence the liberal core, has become a real possibility for the first time in the history of European integration. The paper contributes to the growing debate on the sources of the EU's existential crisis and its future from a global political economy perspective. We suggest that a push-and-pull framework provides a coherent analytical toolkit to explain the properties and nature of the illiberal turn in the EU with its potential implications for the future of European integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise of right-wing populism should be studied as a truly global phenomenon. Domestic and regional contexts are obviously crucial, yet a narrow focus on the domestic realm fails to capture some of the key constituents and paradoxical features of the rise and resilience of right-wing populist projects around the world. Therefore, right-wing populism and the way its contradictions are 'managed' ought to be understood within the context of mutual interactions between: 1) an economy-identity nexus and 2) a domestic-foreign policy nexus. A critical review of six controversial aspects of right-wing populism in the global North and global South is used to substantiate this main argument. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the transformation of the liberal international order, with reference to the ways in which global shifts affect the developmental paradigms among the emerging middle powers. Although it is rarely contested that the liberal order is being severely tested, the dynamics and potential consequences of this transformation are a matter of intense controversy. Also, the debate mainly focuses on great power politics, without paying adequate attention to the ways in which middle powers are influenced by and inform the transition to a post-liberal international order. By focusing on the case of Turkey, this article addresses whether non-Western great powers (Russia and China in particular) are leading the emergence of alternative order(s), and if so, through what mechanisms. Based on the reciprocal interactions between ideas, material capabilities and institutions, I argue that the preferences of the Turkish ruling elite seem to be gradually shifting from a Western-oriented liberal model towards a variety of 'state capitalism' as an alternative developmental paradigm in a post-liberal international order. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article highlights the weakening of the EU's transformative capacity in the broader European periphery in a rapidly shifting global order, with reference to Hungary and Turkey. Although Hungary is an 'insider' and Turkey a relative 'outsider', their recent experiences display strikingly similar patterns, raising important concerns about the EU's leverage. Under the influence of strong nationalist-populist leaders backed by powerful majorities, both countries have been moving in an increasingly illiberal direction, away from well-established EU norms. The article proposes an analytical framework based on a combination of push and pull factors that are driven by changing global political economy dynamics, which explains the EU's declining appeal in its periphery, not only in reference to the internal dynamics of European integration and its multiple crises, but also the appeal of illiberal versions of strategic capitalism employed by rising powers, which serve as reference points for the elites of several states in diverse geographic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2008 global economic crisis galvanized the debate on neo-developmentalism as the pendulum of economic thinking began to swing away from neoliberalism. The current shift in the modalities of market governance mainly deals with the ways through which industrial policies can be crafted in a more open-economy setting. Accordingly, the post-crisis literature turns a keen eye on the state’s developmental role in the research and development (R&D) sector in an age of ‘bit-driven’ global political economy. On that note, the nature, properties, and limits of state policies of emerging powers in this particular realm are becoming increasingly central but remain an understudied theme. This article discusses the R&D policies of Turkey from a state capacity perspective and questions the rationale of those policies by linking the state’s transformative capacity to the discussions on distributive pressures. Drawing on 21 in-depth semi-structured interviews, this article assesses Turkey’s R&D policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU is a distinct actor in global politics. Researchers have developed different concepts to explain its sui generis nature. All approaches, however, converge in the sense that the EU has acted as an important transformative power that altered political preferences in member and candidate countries and informed dominant policy paradigms that organise state-market relations in its sphere of influence. This study argues that the EU's transformative power is under stress as never before due to the internal and external political economy challenges. From an internal point of view, the way in which the euro crisis and migration waves were managed dramatically jeopardized the solidarity ethos in the EU. From an external point of view, the changing international order and the rise of emerging powers weaken the appeal of the EU governance model in global politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article attempts to understand the properties, potentials and limits of middle-power activism in a changing global order. Extensive debate on the rise of emerging powers notwithstanding, the potential contributions of emerging middle powers in regional and global governance, and the imminent challenges they face in their struggle for an upgraded status in the hierarchy of world politics, is an understudied issue. This study aims to fill this gap by offering a broad conceptual framework for middle-power activism and testing it with reference to the Turkish case. In this context, the authors aim to address the following questions: What kind of roles can emerging middle powers play in a post-hegemonic international system? What are the dynamics, properties and limitations of emerging middle-power activism in regional and global governance? Based on an extensive study of the Turkish case, the authors’ central thesis is that emerging middle powers can make important contributions to regional and global governance. Their ultimate impact, however, is not inevitable, but depends on a complementary set of conditions, which are outlined in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We argue in this paper that the Arab Spring has opened a window of opportunity not just to create stability and democracy in one of the most unstable regions of the world, but also for revitalizing Turkey-EU relations. In theory, Turkey-EU cooperation can make a decisive difference in determining the outcome of the triangular relationship between stability, development, and democratization in the Arab region. In normative terms, as an opportunity, it must be turned into an advantage. From a practical perspective, however, transforming the window of opportunity into policy output is linked to the policy leadership of the sides involved to undergo a paradigm shift in their approach to the region and toward one another. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies the proactive/reactive state framework to the transformation of Spanish and Turkish finance capital in a comparative perspective. It concludes that the "proactive" policies pursued by the Spanish state and the strategic coalition established between political elites and the integrationist segments of finance capital resulted in the heterodox internationalization of Spanish firms, whereas the "reactive" state policies in Turkey, designed in line with orthodox neoliberal dictums, paved the way for an incomplete internationalization. The 2007/2008 crisis, however, demonstrates that the same state may be both proactive and reactive across various policy fields over time. The recent Spanish financial crisis and Turkey's regulatory success after 2001 illustrate this point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The euro zone crisis has become the most serious test-case for European integration. Since the beginning of the euro zone crisis, its leaders have played the "blame game" against each other. This paper argues that the crisis in the euro zone has arisen not only because of individual member states' irresponsible policy choices, but also due to the design faults within the euro zone project. This study scrutinizes "complex interdependence within the nation-state framework" as the primary cause of the euro zone problem. On the one hand, the single currency regime came into existence under the "complex interdependence" system mainly driven by financialization and cross-country financial transactions, including skyrocketed government and private debt ratios. On the other hand, the euro zone regime, due to its overwhelming reliance on a "nation-state framework", was not armoured against the side-effects of complex interdependence. The paper concludes that unless the European leaders demonstrate the required policy entrepreneurship to take necessary steps and reform the design faults in the euro zone, there does not seem to be any future for the single currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkish-Greek bilateral economic relations expanded significantly in the last decade and reached an unprecedented level in history. Given the increasing importance of business groups as a result of the intensifying economic relations, some scholars go on to argue that interdependence theory, which underlines the importance of non-state actors in the decision-making process, became relevant within the context of Turkish-Greek relations. In order to assess the relevance of interdependence theory, the determinants of the expansion in bilateral economic relations are analyzed in the present paper. It is argued in the final analysis that although non-state actors (especially business groups) become visible in the new aura of relations within the framework of interdependence theory, they are not likely to create functional spillover into 'high politics' given that the two major determinants in the 2001-2007 period are subject to change in the post-2008 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]