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Phosphorus (P) export from agriculture is a major cause of eutrophication in many lake ecosystems. Human activity, hydrology, and physicochemical and biological processes that store, transform, and transport P, define P export patterns over time and space. We suggest that anecosystem paradigm is useful to holistically view P dynamics within complex watersheds. An ecosystem model of a dairy agricultural systemwas created within a hierarchical compartment-flux structure of a conceptual watershed ecosystem. Mass balance calculations with our Agriculture Ecosystem model (AEP model) describe P dynamics for the farm system, which are driven by the amount of P stored in agricultural soils and system management practices. Long-term P dynamics respond predominately to human interventions in watersheds and define conditionsfor future generations. Model simulations suggest that long-term environmental protection programs should incorporate the notions of P sustainability into management decisions. Dynamic simulation modeling is a valuable paradigm for understanding how complex watersheds process P and for developing management perspectives and public policy to achieve goals of environmental quality as well as economic and resource sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic simulation technology is integrated with mass balance concepts and compartment-flux diagramming to create computer models that estimate contaminant export from watersheds over long and short-term futures under alternative simulated policies of watershed management. The Watershed Ecosystem Nutrient Dynamics (WEND) model, applied to developed watersheds with a mix of urban, agricultural, and forest land-uses, predicted phosphorus (P) export from three watersheds; a 275,000 ha dairy/urban watershed, a 77,000 ha poultry/urban watershed, and a 23,000 ha swine dominated watershed. Urban, agricultural, and forestry activities contribute to P export in different proportions. In all cases the P imports to the watershed exceed total export and P accumulates in watershed soils. Long-term future P export patterns are compared for several watershed management strategies that range from encouragement of rapid urban growth to aggressive environmental protection. The specific response of each watershed to imposed management is unique, but management strategies designed to reduce export of P over the long-term need to consider options that promote P input/output balance. Using this same approach, the Watershed Ecosystem Bacterial Dynamics (WEBD) model assesses the dynamics of bacterial populations in a small case-study watershed over an annual cycle as influenced by dairy farm management actions. WEND and WEBD models integrate the diversity of activities and stakeholders interested in the watershed and promote development of a more holistic understanding of watershed function. Model outputs are designed to assist watershed policy-makers, managers, and planners to explore potential future impacts of management/policy decisions.

The principles of mass balance, compartment-flux diagramming, and dynamic simulation modeling are integrated to create computer models that estimate phosphorus (P) export from large-scale watersheds over long-term futures. These Watershed Ecosystem Nutrient Dynamics (WEND) models are applied to a 275,000 ha dairy-documented watershed and a 77,000 ha poultry-dominated watershed in northeastern USA. Model predictions of present-day P export loads are consistent with monitoring data and estimates made using P export coefficients. For both watersheds P import exceeds P export and P is accumulating in the agricultural soils. Agricultural and urban activities are major contributors to P export from both watersheds. Continued urban growth will increase P export over time unless wastewater management is substantially enhanced and/or rates of urban growth are controlled. Agriculture cannot rely solely on the implementation of increasingly stringent conservation practices to reduce long-term P export but must consider options that promote P input/output balance. The WEND modeling process is a powerful tool to integrate the diversity of activities in watersheds into a holistic framework. Model outputs are suited to assist managers to explore long-term effects of overall watershed management strategies on P export in comparison to environmental and economic goals.