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Abstract Clinical trials seeking to delay or prevent the onset of type 1 diabetes (T1D) face a series of pragmatic challenges. Despite more than 100 years since the discovery of insulin, teplizumab remains the only FDA‐approved therapy to delay progression from Stage 2 to Stage 3 T1D. To increase the efficiency of clinical trials seeking this goal, our project sought to inform T1D clinical trial designs by developing a disease progression model‐based clinical trial simulation tool. Using individual‐level data collected from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention and The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young natural history studies, we previously developed a quantitative joint model to predict the time to T1D onset. We then applied trial‐specific inclusion/exclusion criteria, sample sizes in treatment and placebo arms, trial duration, assessment interval, and dropout rate. We implemented a function for presumed drug effects. To increase the size of the population pool, we generated virtual populations using multivariate normal distribution and ctree machine learning algorithms. As an output, power was calculated, which summarizes the probability of success, showing a statistically significant difference in the time distribution until the T1D diagnosis between the two arms. Using this tool, power curves can also be generated through iterations. The web‐based tool is publicly available: https://app.cop.ufl.edu/t1d/. Herein, we briefly describe the tool and provide instructions for simulating a planned clinical trial with two case studies. This tool will allow for improved clinical trial designs and accelerate efforts seeking to prevent or delay the onset of T1D.

Abstract Kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for individuals with end‐stage kidney disease. From a modeling perspective, our understanding of kidney function trajectories after transplantation remains limited. Current modeling of kidney function post‐transplantation is focused on linear slopes or percent decline and often excludes the highly variable early timepoints post‐transplantation, where kidney function recovers and then stabilizes. Using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a well‐known biomarker of kidney function, from an aggregated dataset of 4904 kidney transplant patients including both observational studies and clinical trials, we developed a longitudinal model of kidney function trajectories from time of transplant to 6 years post‐transplant. Our model is a nonlinear, mixed‐effects model built in NONMEM that captured both the recovery phase after kidney transplantation, where the graft recovers function, and the long‐term phase of stabilization and slow decline. Model fit was assessed using diagnostic plots and individual fits. Model performance, assessed via visual predictive checks, suggests accurate model predictions of eGFR at the median and lower 95% quantiles of eGFR, ranges which are of critical clinical importance for assessing loss of kidney function. Various clinically relevant covariates were also explored and found to improve the model. For example, transplant recipients of deceased donors recover function more slowly after transplantation and calcineurin inhibitor use promotes faster long‐term decay. Our work provides a generalizable, nonlinear model of kidney allograft function that will be useful for estimating eGFR up to 6 years post‐transplant in various clinically relevant populations.

Abstract Clinical trials seeking type 1 diabetes prevention are challenging in terms of identifying patient populations likely to progress to type 1 diabetes within limited (i.e., short‐term) trial durations. Hence, we sought to improve such efforts by developing a quantitative disease progression model for type 1 diabetes. Individual‐level data obtained from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention and The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young natural history studies were used to develop a joint model that links the longitudinal glycemic measure to the timing of type 1 diabetes diagnosis. Baseline covariates were assessed using a stepwise covariate modeling approach. Our study focused on individuals at risk of developing type 1 diabetes with the presence of two or more diabetes‐related autoantibodies (AAbs). The developed model successfully quantified how patient features measured at baseline, including HbA1c and the presence of different AAbs, alter the timing of type 1 diabetes diagnosis with reasonable accuracy and precision (

Abstract Background Despite the high global disease burden of tuberculosis (TB), the disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection, novel treatments remain an urgent medical need. Development efforts continue to be hampered by the reliance on culture-based methods, which often take weeks to obtain due to the slow growth rate of Mtb. The availability of a “real-time” measure of treatment efficacy could accelerate TB drug development. Sputum lipoarabinomannan (LAM; an Mtb cell wall glycolipid) has promise as a pharmacodynamic biomarker of mycobacterial sputum load. Methods The present analysis evaluates LAM as a surrogate for Mtb burden in the sputum samples from 4 cohorts of a total of 776 participants. These include those from 2 cohorts of 558 non-TB and TB participants prior to the initiation of treatment (558 sputum samples), 1 cohort of 178 TB patients under a 14-day bactericidal activity trial with various mono- or multi-TB drug therapies, and 1 cohort of 40 TB patients with data from the first 56-day treatment of a standard 4-drug regimen. Results Regression analysis demonstrated that LAM was a predictor of colony-forming unit (CFU)/mL values obtained from the 14-day treatment cohort, with well-estimated model parameters (relative standard error ≤ 22.2%). Moreover, no changes in the relationship between LAM and CFU/mL were observed across the different treatments, suggesting that sputum LAM can be used to reasonably estimate the CFU/mL in the presence of treatment. The integrated analysis showed that sputum LAM also appears to be as good a predictor of time to Mycobacteria Growth Incubator Tube (MGIT) positivity as CFU/mL. As a binary readout, sputum LAM positivity is a strong predictor of solid media or MGIT culture positivity with an area-under-the-curve value of 0.979 and 0.976, respectively, from receiver-operator curve analysis. Conclusions Our results indicate that sputum LAM performs as a pharmacodynamic biomarker for rapid measurement of Mtb burden in sputum, and thereby may enable more efficient early phase clinical trial designs (e.g., adaptive designs) to compare candidate anti-TB regimens and streamline dose selection for use in pivotal trials. Trial registration NexGen EBA study (NCT02371681)

Abstract Early clinical trials of therapies to treat Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), a fatal genetic X‐linked pediatric disease, have been designed based on the limited understanding of natural disease progression and variability in clinical measures over different stages of the continuum of the disease. The objective was to inform the design of DMD clinical trials by developing a disease progression model‐based clinical trial simulation (CTS) platform based on measures commonly used in DMD trials. Data were integrated from past studies through the Duchenne Regulatory Science Consortium founded by the Critical Path Institute (15 clinical trials and studies, 1505 subjects, 27,252 observations). Using a nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling approach, longitudinal dynamics of five measures were modeled (NorthStar Ambulatory Assessment, forced vital capacity, and the velocities of the following three timed functional tests: time to stand from supine, time to climb 4 stairs, and 10 meter walk‐run time). The models were validated on external data sets and captured longitudinal changes in the five measures well, including both early disease when function improves as a result of growth and development and the decline in function in later stages. The models can be used in the CTS platform to perform trial simulations to optimize the selection of inclusion/exclusion criteria, selection of measures, and other trial parameters. The data sets and models have been reviewed by the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency; have been accepted into the Fit‐for‐Purpose and Qualification for Novel Methodologies pathways, respectively; and will be submitted for potential endorsement by both agencies.

Abstract Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global health problem and there is an ongoing effort to develop more effective therapies and new combination regimes that can reduce duration of treatment. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate utility of a physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic modeling approach to predict plasma and lung concentrations of 11 compounds used or under development as TB therapies (bedaquiline [and N‐desmethyl bedaquiline], clofazimine, cycloserine, ethambutol, ethionamide, isoniazid, kanamycin, linezolid, pyrazinamide, rifampicin, and rifapentine). Model accuracy was assessed by comparison of simulated plasma pharmacokinetic parameters with healthy volunteer data for compounds administered alone or in combination. Eighty‐four percent (area under the curve [AUC]) and 91% (maximum concentration [Cmax]) of simulated mean values were within 1.5‐fold of the observed data and the simulated drug‐drug interaction ratios were within 1.5‐fold (AUC) and twofold (Cmax) of the observed data for nine (AUC) and eight (Cmax) of the 10 cases. Following satisfactory recovery of plasma concentrations in healthy volunteers, model accuracy was assessed further (where patients’ with TB data were available) by comparing clinical data with simulated lung concentrations (9 compounds) and simulated lung: plasma concentration ratios (7 compounds). The 5th–95th percentiles for the simulated lung concentration data recovered between 13% (isoniazid and pyrazinamide) and 88% (pyrazinamide) of the observed data points (Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 198, 2018, 1208; Nat Med, 21, 2015, 1223; PLoS Med, 16, 2019, e1002773). The impact of uncertain model parameters, such as the fraction of drug unbound in lung tissue mass (fumass), is discussed. Additionally, the variability associated with the patient lung concentration data, which was sparse and included extensive within‐subject, interlaboratory, and experimental variability (as well interindividual variability) is reviewed. All presented models are transparently documented and are available as open‐source to aid further research.

The 21st Century Cures Act requires FDA to expand its use of real-world evidence (RWE) to support approval of previously approved drugs for new disease indications and post-marketing study requirements. To address this need in neonates, the FDA and the Critical Path Institute (C-Path) established the International Neonatal Consortium (INC) to advance regulatory science and expedite neonatal drug development. FDA recently provided funding for INC to generate RWE to support regulatory decision making in neonatal drug development. One study is focused on developing a validated definition of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in neonates. BPD is difficult to diagnose with diverse disease trajectories and few viable treatment options. Despite intense research efforts, limited understanding of the underlying disease pathobiology and disease projection continues in the context of a computable phenotype. It will be important to determine if: 1) a large, multisource aggregation of real-world data (RWD) will allow identification of validated risk factors and surrogate endpoints for BPD, and 2) the inclusion of these simulations will identify risk factors and surrogate endpoints for studies to prevent or treat BPD and its related long-term complications. The overall goal is to develop qualified, fit-for-purpose disease progression models which facilitate credible trial simulations while quantitatively capturing mechanistic relationships relevant for disease progression and the development of future treatments. The extent to which neonatal RWD can inform these models is unknown and its appropriateness cannot be guaranteed. A component of this approach is the critical evaluation of the various RWD sources for context-of use (COU)-driven models. The present manuscript defines a landscape of the data including targeted literature searches and solicitation of neonatal RWD sources from international stakeholders; analysis plans to develop a family of models of BPD in neonates, leveraging previous clinical trial experience and real-world patient data is also described.

Interest in drug development for rare diseases has expanded dramatically since the Orphan Drug Act was passed in 1983, with 40% of new drug approvals in 2019 targeting orphan indications. However, limited quantitative understanding of natural history and disease progression hinders progress and increases the risks associated with rare disease drug development. Use of international data standards can assist in data harmonization and enable data exchange, integration into larger datasets, and a quantitative understanding of disease natural history. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requires the use of Clinical Data Interchange Consortium (CDISC) Standards in new drug submissions to help the agency efficiently and effectively receive, process, review, and archive submissions, as well as to help integrate data to answer research questions. Such databases have been at the core of biomarker qualification efforts and fit‐for‐purpose models endorsed by the regulators. We describe the development of CDISC therapeutic area user guides for Duchenne muscular dystrophy and Huntington’s disease through Critical Path Institute consortia. These guides describe formalized data structures and controlled terminology to map and integrate data from different sources. This will result in increased standardization of data collection and allow integration and comparison of data from multiple studies. Integration of multiple data sets enables a quantitative understanding of disease progression, which can help overcome common challenges in clinical trial design in these and other rare diseases. Ultimately, clinical data standardization will lead to a faster path to regulatory approval of urgently needed new therapies for patients.

Innovative tools are urgently needed to accelerate the evaluation and subsequent approval of novel treatments that may slow, halt, or reverse the relentless progression of Parkinson disease (PD). Therapies that intervene early in the disease continuum are a priority for the many candidates in the drug development pipeline. There is a paucity of sensitive and objective, yet clinically interpretable, measures that can capture meaningful aspects of the disease. This poses a major challenge for the development of new therapies and is compounded by the considerable heterogeneity in clinical manifestations across patients and the fluctuating nature of many signs and symptoms of PD. Digital health technologies (DHT), such as smartphone applications, wearable sensors, and digital diaries, have the potential to address many of these gaps by enabling the objective, remote, and frequent measurement of PD signs and symptoms in natural living environments. The current climate of the COVID-19 pandemic creates a heightened sense of urgency for effective implementation of such strategies. In order for these technologies to be adopted in drug development studies, a regulatory-aligned consensus on best practices in implementing appropriate technologies, including the collection, processing, and interpretation of digital sensor data, is required. A growing number of collaborative initiatives are being launched to identify effective ways to advance the use of DHT in PD clinical trials. The Critical Path for Parkinson’s Consortium of the Critical Path Institute is highlighted as a case example where stakeholders collectively engaged regulatory agencies on the effective use of DHT in PD clinical trials. Global regulatory agencies, including the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency, are encouraging the efficiencies of data-driven engagements through multistakeholder consortia. To this end, we review how the advancement of DHT can be most effectively achieved by aligning knowledge, expertise, and data sharing in ways that maximize efficiencies.

Efforts for sharing individual clinical data are gaining momentum due to a heightened recognition that integrated data sets can catalyze biomedical discoveries and drug development. Among the benefits are the fact that data sharing can help generate and investigate new research hypothesis beyond those explored in the original study. Despite several accomplishments establishing public systems and guidance for data sharing in clinical trials, this practice is not the norm. Among the reasons are ethical challenges, such as privacy of individuals, data ownership, and control. This paper creates awareness of the potential benefits and challenges of sharing individual clinical data, how to overcome these challenges, and how as a clinical pharmacology community we can shape future directions in this field.

Volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (vMRI) has been widely studied in Huntington's disease (HD) and is commonly used to assess treatment effects on brain atrophy in interventional trials. Global and regional trajectories of brain atrophy in HD, with early involvement of striatal regions, are becoming increasingly understood. However, there remains heterogeneity in the methods used and a lack of widely-accessible multisite, longitudinal, normative datasets in HD. Consensus for standardized practices for data acquisition, analysis, sharing, and reporting will strengthen the interpretation of vMRI results and facilitate their adoption as part of a pathobiological disease staging system. The Huntington's Disease Regulatory Science Consortium (HD-RSC) currently comprises 37 member organizations and is dedicated to building a regulatory science strategy to expedite the approval of HD therapeutics. Here, we propose four recommendations to address vMRI standardization in HD research: (1) a checklist of standardized practices for the use of vMRI in clinical research and for reporting results; (2) targeted research projects to evaluate advanced vMRI methodologies in HD; (3) the definition of standard MRI-based anatomical boundaries for key brain structures in HD, plus the creation of a standard reference dataset to benchmark vMRI data analysis methods; and (4) broad access to raw images and derived data from both observational studies and interventional trials, coded to protect participant identity. In concert, these recommendations will enable a better understanding of disease progression and increase confidence in the use of vMRI for drug development.

Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal-dominant inherited neurodegenerative disorder that is caused by expansion of a CAG-repeat tract in the huntingtin gene and characterized by motor impairment, cognitive decline, and neuropsychiatric disturbances. Neuropathological studies show that disease progression follows a characteristic pattern of brain atrophy, beginning in the basal ganglia structures. The HD Regulatory Science Consortium (HD-RSC) brings together diverse stakeholders in the HD community—biopharmaceutical industry, academia, nonprofit, and patient advocacy organizations—to define and address regulatory needs to accelerate HD therapeutic development. Here, the Biomarker Working Group of the HD-RSC summarizes the cross-sectional evidence indicating that regional brain volumes, as measured by volumetric magnetic resonance imaging, are reduced in HD and are correlated with disease characteristics. We also evaluate the relationship between imaging measures and clinical change, their longitudinal change characteristics, and within-individual longitudinal associations of imaging with disease progression. This analysis will be valuable in assessing pharmacodynamics in clinical trials and supporting clinical outcome assessments to evaluate treatment effects on neurodegeneration.

The Critical Path for Parkinson's (CPP) Imaging Biomarker and Modeling and Simulation working groups aimed to achieve qualification opinion by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Committee for Medical Products for Human Use (CHMP) for the use of baseline dopamine transporter neuroimaging for patient selection in early Parkinson's disease clinical trials. This paper describes the regulatory science strategy to achieve this goal. CPP is an international consortium of three Parkinson's charities and nine pharmaceutical partners, coordinated by the Critical Path Institute.

Abstract Rare or orphan diseases often are inherited and overwhelmingly affect children. Many of these diseases have no treatments, are incurable, and have a devastating impact on patients and their families. Regulatory standards for drug approval for rare diseases must ensure that patients receive safe and efficacious treatments. However, regulatory bodies have shown flexibility in applying these standards to drug development in rare diseases, given the unique challenges that hinder efficient and effective traditional clinical trials, including low patient numbers, limited understanding of disease pathology and progression, variability in disease presentation, and a lack of established endpoints. To take steps toward improving rare disease clinical development strategies under current global regulatory statutes, Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. and BioNJ convened a 1-day meeting that included representatives from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), biopharmaceutical industry, and not-for-profit agencies. The meeting focused on orphan diseases in pediatric and adult patients and was intended to identify potential strategies to overcome regulatory hurdles through open collaboration. During this meeting, several strategies were identified to minimize the limitations associated with low patient numbers in rare diseases, including the use of natural history to generate historical control data in comparisons, simulations, and identifying inclusion/exclusion criteria and appropriate endpoints. Novel approaches to clinical trial design were discussed to minimize patient exposure to placebo and to reduce the numbers of patients and clinical trials needed for providing substantial evidence. Novel statistical analysis approaches were also discussed to address the inherent challenges of small patient numbers. Areas of urgent unmet need were identified, including the need to develop registries that protect patient identities, to establish close collaboration and communication between the sponsor and regulatory bodies to address methodological and statistical challenges, to collaborate in pre-competitive opportunities within multiple sponsors and in conjunction with academia and disease-specific patient advocacy groups for optimal data sharing, and to develop harmonized guidelines for data extrapolation from source to target pediatric populations. Ultimately, these innovations will help in solving many regulatory challenges in rare disease drug development and encourage the availability of new treatments for patients with rare diseases.

Total kidney volume (TKV) is a promising imaging biomarker for tracking and predicting the natural history of patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Methods: A drug development tool was developed by linking longitudinal TKV measurements to the probability of a 30% decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage renal disease. Drug development tools were developed based on observational data collected over multiple decades for an eGFR decline and end-stage renal disease in 641 and 866 patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease, respectively. Results: The statistical association between predicted TKV at the time of a 30% decline of eGFR and that at the time of end-stage renal disease were both highly significant (P < 0.0001). The drug development tool was applied to demonstrate the utility of trial enrichment according to prespecified baseline TKV, age, and eGFR as enrollment criteria in hypothetical clinical trials. Patients with larger TKV (≥1000 ml) displayed steeper slopes of hazard, which translated into a higher risk of a 30% decline of eGFR within each baseline age (< or ≥40 years) or baseline eGFR (< or ≥50 ml/min per 1.73 m2) subgroups. Discussion: These results suggest that, when eGFR is preserved, patients with larger TKV are more likely to progress to a 30% decline of eGFR within the course of a clinical trial, whereas eGFR and age displayed limited predictive value of disease progression in early disease. Pharmaceutical sponsors and academic investigators are encouraged to prospectively employ the above drug development tool to optimize trial designs in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease is the most common hereditary kidney disease. TKV is a promising imaging biomarker for tracking and predicting the natural history of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. The prognostic value of TKV was evaluated, in combination with age and eGFR, for the outcomes of 30% decline in eGFR and progression to ESRD. Observational data including 2355 patients with TKV measurements were available. Methods: Multivariable Cox models were developed to assess the prognostic value of age, TKV, height-adjusted TKV, eGFR, sex, race, and genotype for the probability of a 30% decline in eGFR or ESRD. Results: TKV was the most important prognostic term for 30% decline in eGFR in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease patients with and without preserved baseline eGFR. For a 40-year-old subject with preserved eGFR (70 ml/min per 1.73 m2), the adjusted hazard ratios for a 30% decline in eGFR were 1.86 (95% CI, 1.65–2.10) for a 2-fold larger TKV (600 vs. 1200 ml) and 2.68 (95% CI, 2.22–3.24) for a 3-fold larger TKV (600 vs. 1800 ml), respectively. Hazard ratios for progression to ESRD for 2- and 3-fold larger TKV were 1.72 (95% CI, 1.49–1.99) and 2.36 (95% CI, 1.88–2.97), respectively. Discussion: The capability to predict 30% decline in eGFR is a novel aspect of this study. TKV was formally qualified, both by FDA and EMA, as a prognostic enrichment biomarker for selecting patients at high risk for a progressive decline in renal function for inclusion in interventional clinical trials.

The development of novel tuberculosis (TB) multi-drug regimens that are more efficacious and of shorter duration requires a robust drug development pipeline. Advances in quantitative modeling and simulation can be used to maximize the utility of patient-level data from prior and contemporary clinical trials, thus optimizing study design for anti-TB regimens. This perspective article highlights the work of seven project teams developing first-in-class translational and quantitative methodologies that aim to inform drug development decision-making, dose selection, trial design, and safety assessments, in order to achieve shorter and safer therapies for patients in need. These tools offer the opportunity to evaluate multiple hypotheses and provide a means to identify, quantify, and understand relevant sources of variability, to optimize translation and clinical trial design. When incorporated into the broader regulatory sciences framework, these efforts have the potential to transform the development paradigm for TB combination development, as well as other areas of global health.