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Regional carbon budget assessments attribute and track changes in carbon sources and sinks and support the development and monitoring the efficacy of climate policies. We present a comprehensive assessment of the natural and anthropogenic carbon (C‐CO2) fluxes for Australasia as a whole, as well as for Australia and New Zealand individually, for the period from 2010 to 2019, using two approaches: bottom‐up methods that integrate flux estimates from land‐surface models, data‐driven models, and inventory estimates; and top‐down atmospheric inversions based on satellite and in situ measurements. Our bottom‐up decadal assessment suggests that Australasia's net carbon balance was close to carbon neutral (−0.4 ± 77.0 TgC yr−1). However, substantial uncertainties remain in this estimate, primarily driven by the large spread between our regional terrestrial biosphere simulations and predictions from global ecosystem models. Within Australasia, Australia was a net source of 38.2 ± 75.8 TgC yr−1, and New Zealand was a net CO2 sink of −38.6 ± 13.4 TgC yr−1. The top‐down approach using atmospheric CO2 inversions indicates that fluxes derived from the latest satellite retrievals are consistent within the range of uncertainties with Australia's bottom‐up budget. For New Zealand, the best agreement was found with a national scale flux inversion estimate based on in situ measurements, which provide better constrained of fluxes than satellite flux inversions. This study marks an important step toward a more comprehensive understanding of the net CO2 balance in both countries, facilitating the improvement of carbon accounting approaches and strategies to reduce emissions. Plain Language Summary: Human activities—including the extraction and use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), cement production, and land‐use change (e.g., land clearing), release carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, while biospheric processes such as the CO2 uptake by forests and revegetation remove CO2 from the atmosphere. In this study, we assess the balance of natural and human‐driven sources and sinks of CO2 for Australia and New Zealand (referred to as the Australasia carbon budget) for 2010–2019. Our findings indicate that Australasia was close to carbon neutral, with large uncertainties, suggesting that the CO2 sinks from vegetation in this region largely offset the CO2 emissions from human activities. An independent assessment using the latest satellite observations and modeling shows consistent results for Australia. For New Zealand, a national system of ground observations and modeling agreed better with the bottom‐up budget than satellite‐derived flux estimates. Key Points: We synthesize Australasia's carbon C‐CO2 budget (together with Australia and New Zealand) based on bottom‐up and top‐down approachesAustralasia's bottom‐up carbon budget suggests that this region was close to neutral (−0.4 ± 77.0 TgC yr−1) from 2010 to 2019Australasia's annual CO2 balance fluctuates significantly, particularly in Australia, shifting from a strong carbon sink to a strong carbon source [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the CarbonWatch-NZ research programme, air samples were collected at 28 sites around Auckland, New Zealand, to determine the atmospheric ratio (RCO) of excess (local enhancement over background) carbon monoxide to fossil CO2 (CO2ff). Sites were categorized into seven types (background, forest, industrial, suburban, urban, downwind and motorway) to observe RCO around Auckland. Motorway flasks observed RCO of 14 ± 1 ppb ppm−1 and were used to evaluate traffic RCO. The similarity between suburban (14 ± 1 ppb ppm−1) and traffic RCO suggests that traffic dominates suburban CO2ff emissions during daytime hours, the period of flask collection. The lower urban RCO (11 ± 1 ppb ppm−1) suggests that urban CO2ff emissions are comprised of more than just traffic, with contributions from residential, commercial and industrial sources, all with a lower RCO than traffic. Finally, the downwind sites were believed to best represent RCO for Auckland City overall (11 ± 1 ppb ppm−1). We demonstrate that the initial discrepancy between the downwind RCO and Auckland's estimated daytime inventory RCO (15 ppb ppm−1) can be attributed to an overestimation in inventory traffic CO emissions. After revision based on our observed motorway RCO, the revised inventory RCO (12 ppb ppm−1) is consistent with our observations. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Radiocarbon in the Anthropocene'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate, high‐resolution and sector‐specific greenhouse gas emissions information is increasingly needed for the development of local, targeted mitigation policies. We describe a detailed, spatially and temporally resolved CO2 emissions data product, Mahuika‐Auckland, for Auckland, New Zealand, based on Auckland's regional greenhouse gas and air emissions inventories. Emissions are provided at 500 m spatial resolution and at a 1‐hr time step, a level of detail not previously available for any New Zealand city. We divide fossil fuel emissions into six sectors that comprise the majority of Auckland Region's CO2 emissions profile: on‐road transport, industrial non‐point buildings and point sources, commercial non‐point buildings, residential non‐point buildings, air transport and sea transport. We also include separate layers representing biogenic CO2 emissions (primarily waste and wood burning), as these are significant sources in Auckland. We distribute emissions spatially and temporally based on activity data, energy and fuel consumption patterns, and population statistics. The code to generate Mahuika‐Auckland has been designed to be flexible so that updated information and/or data from more recent years can easily be incorporated. This data product improves upon New Zealand's current inventories that are only resolved at the regional and annual scale, providing a new level of detail that can be used as a prior estimate for atmospheric inversions, to inform emissions reduction policies and to guide the development of zero carbon pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2013 an ice core was recovered from Roosevelt Island, an ice dome between two submarine troughs carved by paleo-ice-streams in the Ross Sea, Antarctica. The ice core is part of the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) project and provides new information about the past configuration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and its retreat during the last deglaciation. In this work we present the RICE17 chronology, which establishes the depth–age relationship for the top 754 m of the 763 m core. RICE17 is a composite chronology combining annual layer interpretations for 0–343 m with new estimates for gas and ice ages based on synchronization of CH4 and δ18O atm records to corresponding records from the WAIS Divide ice core and by modeling of the gas age–ice age difference. Novel aspects of this work include the following: (1) an automated algorithm for multiproxy stratigraphic synchronization of high-resolution gas records; (2) synchronization using centennial-scale variations in methane for pre-anthropogenic time periods (60–720 m, 1971 CE to 30 ka), a strategy applicable for future ice cores; and (3) the observation of a continuous climate record back to ∼65 ka providing evidence that the Roosevelt Island Ice Dome was a constant feature throughout the last glacial period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a 2700-year annually resolved chronology and snow accumulation history for the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core, Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. The core adds information on past accumulation changes in an otherwise poorly constrained sector of Antarctica. The timescale was constructed by identifying annual cycles in high-resolution impurity records, and it constitutes the top part of the Roosevelt Island Ice Core Chronology 2017 (RICE17). Validation by volcanic and methane matching to the WD2014 chronology from the WAIS Divide ice core shows that the two timescales are in excellent agreement. In a companion paper, gas matching to WAIS Divide is used to extend the timescale for the deeper part of the core in which annual layers cannot be identified. Based on the annually resolved timescale, we produced a record of past snow accumulation at Roosevelt Island. The accumulation history shows that Roosevelt Island experienced slightly increasing accumulation rates between 700 BCE and 1300 CE, with an average accumulation of 0.25±0.02 m water equivalent (w.e.) per year. Since 1300 CE, trends in the accumulation rate have been consistently negative, with an acceleration in the rate of decline after the mid-17th century. The current accumulation rate at Roosevelt Island is 0.210±0.002 m w.e. yr -1 (average since 1965 CE, ±2σ), and it is rapidly declining with a trend corresponding to 0.8 mm yr -2. The decline observed since the mid-1960s is 8 times faster than the long-term decreasing trend taking place over the previous centuries, with decadal mean accumulation rates consistently being below average. Previous research has shown a strong link between Roosevelt Island accumulation rates and the location and intensity of the Amundsen Sea Low, which has a significant impact on regional sea-ice extent. The decrease in accumulation rates at Roosevelt Island may therefore be explained in terms of a recent strengthening of the ASL and the expansion of sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea. The start of the rapid decrease in RICE accumulation rates observed in 1965 CE may thus mark the onset of significant increases in regional sea-ice extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a systematic approach to the calibration and uncertainty estimation of a high-resolution continuous flow analysis (CFA) water isotope (δ2H, δ18O) record from the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) Antarctic ice core. Our method establishes robust uncertainty estimates for CFA δ²H and δ18O measurements, comparable to those reported for discrete sample δ²H and δ18O analysis. Data were calibrated using a time-weighted two-point linear calibration with two standards measured both before and after continuously melting 3 or 4m of ice core. The error at each data point was calculated as the quadrature sum of three factors: Allan variance error, scatter over our averaging interval (error of the variance) and calibration error (error of the mean). Final mean total uncertainty for the entire record is δ²H D 0:74? and δ18O D 0:21?. Uncertainties vary through the data set and were exacerbated by a range of factors, which typically could not be isolated due to the requirements of the multi-instrument CFA campaign. These factors likely occurred in combination and included ice quality, ice breaks, upstream equipment failure, contamination with drill fluid and leaks or valve degradation. We demonstrate that our methodology for documenting uncertainty was effective across periods of uneven system performance and delivered a significant achievement in the precision of highresolution CFA water isotope measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brittle ice, which occurs in all intermediate-depth and deep ice cores retrieved from high-latitude regions, presents a challenge for high-resolution measurements of water isotopes, gases, ions and other quantities conducted with continuous flow analysis (CFA). We present a novel method of preserving brittle ice for CFA stable water isotope measurements using data from a new ice core recovered by the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) project. Modest modification of the drilling technique and the accommodation of non-horizontal fractures (‘slanted breaks’) in processing led to a substantial improvement in the percentage of brittle ice analyzed with CFA (87.8%). Whereas traditional processing methods remove entire fragmented pieces of ice, our method allowed the incorporation of a total of 3 m of ice (1% of the 261 m of brittle ice and ~1300 years of climate history) that otherwise would not have been available for CFA. Using the RICE stable water isotope CFA dataset, we demonstrate the effect of slanted breaks and analyze the resulting smoothing of the data with real and simulated examples. Our results suggest that retaining slanted breaks are a promising technique for preserving brittle ice material for CFA stable water isotope measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea, named the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. Comparison of this record with climate reanalysis data for the 1979-2012 interval shows that RICE reliably captures temperature and snow precipitation variability in the region. Trends over the past 2700 years in RICE are shown to be distinct from those in West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea captured by other ice cores. For most of this interval, the eastern Ross Sea was warming (or showing isotopic enrichment for other reasons), with increased snow accumulation and perhaps decreased sea ice concentration. However, West Antarctica cooled and the western Ross Sea showed no significant isotope temperature trend. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole. Notably, during the Little Ice Age, West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea experienced colder than average temperatures, while the eastern Ross Sea underwent a period of warming or increased isotopic enrichment. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. All three regions show current warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea but increasing in the western Ross Sea. We interpret this pattern as reflecting an increase in sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea with perhaps the establishment of a modern Roosevelt Island polynya as a local moisture source for RICE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a 2700-year annually resolved timescale for the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core, and reconstruct a past snow accumulation history for the coastal sector of the Ross Ice Shelf in West Antarctica. The timescale was constructed by identifying annual layers in multiple ice-core impurity records, employing both manual and automated counting approaches, and constitutes the top part of the Roosevelt Island Ice Core Chronology 2017 (RICE17). The maritime setting of Roosevelt Island results in high sulfate influx from sea salts and marine biogenic emissions, which prohibits a routine detection of volcanic eruptions in the ice-core records. This led to the use of non-traditional chronological techniques for validating the timescale: RICE was synchronized to the WAIS Divide ice core, on the WD2014 timescale, using volcanic attribution based on direct measurements of ice-core acidity, as well as records of globally-synchronous, centennial-scale variability in atmospheric methane concentrations. The RICE accumulation history suggests stable values of 0.25m water equivalent (w.e.) per year until around 1260CE. Uncertainties in the correction for ice flow thinning of annual layers with depth do not allow a firm conclusion about long-term trends in accumulation rates during this early period but from 1260CE to the present, accumulation rate trends have been consistently negative. The decrease in accumulation rates has been increasingly rapid over the last centuries, with the decrease since 1950 CE being more than 7 times greater than the average over the last 300 years. The current accumulation rate of 0.22±0.06mw.e.yr-1 (average since 1950CE, ±1σ) is 1.49 standard deviations (86th percentile) below the mean of 50-year average accumulation rates observed over the last 2700 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually-dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea. Comparison of the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core records with climate reanalysis data for the 1979-2012 calibration period shows that RICE records reliably capture temperature and snow precipitation variability of the region. RICE is compared with data from West Antarctica (West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Ice Core) and the western (Talos Dome) and eastern (Siple Dome) Ross Sea. For most of the past 2,700 years, the eastern Ross Sea was warming with perhaps increased snow accumulation and decreased sea ice extent. However, West Antarctica cooled whereas the western Ross Sea showed no significant temperature trend. From the 17th Century onwards, this relationship changes. All three regions now show signs of warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea, but increasing in the western Ross Sea. Analysis of decadal to centennial-scale climate variability superimposed on the longer term trend reveal that periods characterised by opposing temperature trends between the Eastern and Western Ross Sea have occurred since the 3rd Century but are masked by longer-term trends. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole, caused by a sensitive response of the region to dynamic interactions of the Southern Annual Mode and tropical forcings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional atmospheric inversion method has been developed to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of CO2 sinks and sources across New Zealand for 2011- 2013. This approach infers net air-sea and air-land CO2 fluxes from measurement records, using back-trajectory simulations from the Numerical Atmospheric dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) Lagrangian dispersion model, driven by meteorology from the New Zealand Limited Area Model (NZLAM) weather prediction model. The inversion uses in situ measurements from two fixed sites, Baring Head on the southern tip of New Zealand's North Island (41.408- S, 174.871- E) and Lauder from the central South Island (45.038- S, 169.684- E), and ship board data from monthly cruises between Japan, New Zealand, and Australia. A range of scenarios is used to assess the sensitivity of the inversion method to underlying assumptions and to ensure robustness of the results. The results indicate a strong seasonal cycle in terrestrial land fluxes from the South Island of New Zealand, especially in western regions covered by indigenous forest, suggesting higher photosynthetic and respiratory activity than is evident in the current a priori land process model. On the annual scale, the terrestrial biosphere in New Zealand is estimated to be a net CO2 sink, removing 98 (-37) TgCO2 yr-1 from the atmosphere on average during 2011-2013. This sink is much larger than the reported 27 TgCO2 yr-1 from the national inventory for the same time period. The difference can be partially reconciled when factors related to forest and agricultural management and exports, fossil fuel emission estimates, hydrologic fluxes, and soil carbon change are considered, but some differences are likely to remain. Baseline uncertainty, model transport uncertainty, and limited sensitivity to the northern half of the North Island are the main contributors to flux uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Independent estimates of fossil fuel CO2 (CO2ff) emissions are key to ensuring that emission reductions and regulations are effective and provide needed transparency and trust. Point source emissions are a key target because a small number of power plants represent a large portion of total global emissions. Currently, emission rates are known only from self-reported data. Atmospheric observations have the potential tomeet the need for independent evaluation, but useful results from this method have been elusive, due to challenges in distinguishing CO2ff emissions from the large and varying CO2 background and in relating atmospheric observations to emission flux rates with high accuracy. Here we use time-integrated observations of the radiocarbon content of CO2 (14CO2) to quantify the recently added CO2ff mole fraction at surface sites surrounding a point source. We demonstrate that both fast-growing plant material (grass) and CO2 collected by absorption into sodium hydroxide solution provide excellent time-integrated records of atmospheric 14CO2. These timeintegrated samples allow us to evaluate emissions over a period of days to weeks with only a modest number of measurements. Applying the same time integration in an atmospheric transport model eliminates the need to resolve highly variable short-term turbulence. Together these techniques allow us to independently evaluate point source CO2ff emission rates from atmospheric observations with uncertainties of better than 10%. This uncertainty represents an improvement by a factor of 2 over current bottom-up inventory estimates and previous atmospheric observation estimates and allows reliable independent evaluation of emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictive understanding of precipitation δ2H and δ18O in New Zealand faces unique challenges, including high spatial variability in precipitation amounts, alternation between subtropical and sub-Antarctic precipitation sources, and a compressed latitudinal range of 34 to 47 °S. To map the precipitation isotope ratios across New Zealand, three years of integrated monthly precipitation samples were acquired from >50 stations. Conventional mean-annual precipitation δ2H and δ18O maps were produced by regressions using geographic and annual climate variables. Incomplete data and short-term variation in climate and precipitation sources limited the utility of this approach. We overcome these difficulties by calculating precipitation-weighted monthly climate parameters using national 5-km-gridded daily climate data. This data plus geographic variables were regressed to predict δ2H, δ18O, andd-excessat all sites. The procedure yields statistically-valid predictions of the isotope composition of precipitation (long-term average root mean square error (RMSE) for δ18O = 0.6 ‰; δ2H = 5.5 ‰); and monthly RMSE δ18O = 1.9 ‰, δ2H = 16 ‰. This approach has substantial benefits for studies that require the isotope composition of precipitation during specific time intervals, and may be further improved by comparison to daily and event-based precipitation samples as well as the use of back-trajectory calculations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the utility of tree ring 14C archives for detecting long-term changes in fossil CO2 emissions from a point source. Trees assimilate carbon from the atmosphere during photosynthesis, in the process faithfully recording the average atmospheric 14C content in each new annual tree ring. Using 14C as a proxy for fossil CO2, we examine interannual variability over six years of fossil CO2 observations between 2004-2005 and 2011-2012 from two trees growing near the Kapuni Gas Treatment Plant in rural Taranaki, New Zealand. We quantify the amount of variability that can be attributed to transport and meteorology by simulating constant point-source fossil CO2 emissions over the observation period with the atmospheric transport model WindTrax. We compare model simulation results to observations and calculate the amount of change in emissions that we can detect with new observations over annual or multi-year time periods, given both the measurement uncertainty of 1ppm and the modelled variation in transport. In particular, we ask, what is the minimum amount of change in emissions that we can detect using this method, given a reference period of six years? We find that changes of 42% or more could be detected in a new sample from one year at the same observation location or 22% in the case of four years of new samples. This threshold is reduced and the method becomes more practical the more the size of the signal increases. For point sources 10 times larger than the Kapuni plant (a more typical size for power plants worldwide), it would be possible to detect sustained emissions changes on the order of 10%, given suitable meteorology and observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]