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Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments This research was funded through the COST Action “Alien Challenge” [Grant number TD1209]; the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations AEI, FWF and BMBF [grant numbers AEI PCI2018-092966 (NRP)/FWF project 4011-B32 (FE, SD, GL, BeL)/BMBF projects 01LC1807A (HS) and 01LC1807B (JMJ)]; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [grant numbers InDyNet, JE 288/8-1; JE 288/9-1, 9-2 (JMJ)/via iDiv FZT 118, 202548816 (MW)]; OP RDE grant EVA4.0 [grant number CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803] (AML); CONICYT [grant number AFB170008] (AP); UK-SCAPE programme, Natural Environment Research Council [grant number NE/R016429/1] (HER)

Land-use activities are increasingly globalized and industrialized. While this contributes to a reduction of pressure on domestic ecosystems in some regions, spillover effects from these processes represent potential obstacles for global sustainable land-use. This contribution scrutinizes the complex global resource nexus of national land-use intensity, international trade of biomass goods, and resource footprints in land-use systems. Via a systematic account of the global human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) and input–output modelling, we demonstrate that with growing income countries reduce their reliance on local renewable resources, while simultaneously consuming more biomass goods produced in other countries requiring higher energy and material inputs. The characteristic 'outsourcing' country appropriates 43% of its domestic net primary production, but net-imports a similar amount (64 gigajoules per capita and year) from other countries and requires energy (11 GJ/cap/yr) and material (~400 kg/cap/yr) inputs four to five times higher as the majority of the global population to sustain domestic land-use intensification. This growing societal disconnect from domestic ecological productivity enables a domestic conservation of ecosystems while satisfying growing demand. However, it does not imply a global decoupling of biomass consumption from resource and land requirements., Security: staffonly

Sustainable food systems face trade-offs between demands of low environmental pressures per unit area and requirements of increasing production. Organic farming has lower yields than conventional agriculture and requires the introduction of nitrogen (N) fixing legumes in crop rotations. Here we perform an integrated assessment of the feasibility of future food systems in terms of land and N availability and the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results show that switching to 100% organic farming without additional measures results in N deficiency. Dietary change towards a reduced share of animal products can aggravate N limitations, which can be overcome through the implementation of a combination of agroecological, circular economy and decarbonization strategies. These measures help to recycle and transfer N from grassland. A vegan diet from fully decarbonized conventional production performs similarly as the optimized organic scenario. Sustainable food systems hence require measures beyond the agricultural sector.

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Changes in land systems generate many sustainability challenges. Identifying more sustainable land-use alternatives requires solid theoretical foundations on the causes of land-use/cover changes. Land system science is a maturing field that has produced a wealth of methodological innovations and empirical observations on land-cover and land-use change, from patterns and processes to causes. We take stock of this knowledge by reviewing and synthesizing the theories that explain the causal mechanisms of land-use change, including systemic linkages between distant land-use changes, with a focus on agriculture and forestry processes. We first review theories explaining changes in land-use extent, such as agricultural expansion, deforestation, frontier development, and land abandonment, and changes in land-use intensity, such as agricultural intensification and disintensification. We then synthesize theories of higher-level land system change processes, focusing on: (i) land-use spillovers, including land sparing and rebound effects with intensification, leakage, indirect land-use change, and land-use displacement, and (ii) land-use transitions, defined as structural non-linear changes in land systems, including forest transitions. Theories focusing on the causes of land system changes span theoretically and epistemologically disparate knowledge domains and build from deductive, abductive, and inductive approaches. A grand, integrated theory of land system change remains elusive. Yet, we show that middle-range theories – defined here as contextual generalizations that describe chains of causal mechanisms explaining a well-bounded range of phenomena, as well as the conditions that trigger, enable, or prevent these causal chains –, provide a path towards generalized knowledge of land systems. This knowledge can support progress towards sustainable social-ecological systems.

Conserving and managing global natural capital requires an understanding of the complexity of flows ofecosystem services across geographic boundaries. Failing to understand and to incorporate these flowsinto national and international ecosystem assessments leads to incomplete and potentially skewed conclusions,impairing society’s ability to identify sustainable management and policy choices. In this paper,we synthesise existing knowledge and develop a conceptual framework for analysing interregionalecosystem service flows. We synthesise the types of such flows, the characteristics of sending and receivingsocio-ecological systems, and the impacts of ecosystem service flows on interregional sustainability.Using four cases (trade of certified coffee, migration of northern pintails, flood protection in the Danubewatershed, and information on giant pandas), we test the conceptual framework and show how anenhanced understanding of interregional telecouplings in socio-ecological systems can inform ecosystemservice-based decision making and governance with respect to sustainability goals.&nbsp

Organic agriculture is proposed as a promising approach to achieving sustainable food systems, but its feasibility is also contested. We use a food systems model that addresses agronomic characteristics of organic agriculture to analyze the role that organic agriculture could play in sustainable food systems. Here we show that a 100% conversion to organic agriculture needs more land than conventional agriculture but reduces N-surplus and pesticide use. However, in combination with reductions of food wastage and food-competing feed from arable land, with correspondingly reduced production and consumption of animal products, land use under organic agriculture remains below the reference scenario. Other indicators such as greenhouse gas emissions also improve, but adequate nitrogen supply is challenging. Besides focusing on production, sustainable food systems need to address waste, crop–grass–livestock interdependencies and human consumption. None of the corresponding strategies needs full implementation and their combined partial implementation delivers a more sustainable food future., Organic agriculture requires fewer inputs but produces lower yields than conventional farming. Here, via a modeling approach, Muller et al. predict that if food waste and meat consumption are reduced, organic agriculture could feed the world without requiring cropland expansion.

Ecosystems and society are strongly interlinked and are, therefore, considered as coupled social-ecological systems (SESs). A promising approach for assessing the impacts of climate extremes is based on the concept of social-ecological resilience (SER), which defines the capacity of a SES to delay the impact, reduce the severity of the impact and enhance recovery from it. The operationalization of the SER concept requires the integration of ecological resilience and of transformational processes of society. In this chapter, we provide examples from five transdisciplinary research projects, in which social and natural scientists have been involved, with a high degree of participation of nonacademic actors. We show how the resilience of coupled SESs is affected by climate extremes in different ways and how a transformation toward future SES and enhanced SER can be achieved. We show that, generally, diversification of ecosystems as well as of societal processes such as ecosystem management and communication strategies is an asset for increased resilience of SES to climate extremes.

[No abstract available]

Consumption of animal-source food is criticised, among other reasons, for its relatively high environmental impact. It is, however, increasingly acknowledged that livestock can contribute to nutrition security if they upcycle low-opportunity-cost feed (LCF) – food waste, food processing by-products and grass resources – into nutritious animal-source food. So far, however, no study explored the allocation question “to which livestock should we feed what LCF to maximise livestock's contribution to human nutrition”. Here we optimise the use of the LCF available in the EU, using a model that assigns LCF to those livestock systems that maximise animal protein production. We included the five most common livestock systems in the EU – pigs, laying hens, broilers, dairy cattle and beef cattle – considering their nutrient requirements under three productivity levels (low, mid and high). LCF availability is based on current food supply combined with food wastage and food processing data, and current grassland productivity. Our results showed that optimal conversion of LCF available in the EU, could supply 31 g animal protein per EU capita per day. We confirmed that this optimal conversion requires a variety of both livestock systems and productivity levels. Dominant livestock systems were those that have a high conversion efficiency (laying hens, dairy cattle), were best able to valorise specific LCF (dairy cattle for grass; pigs for food waste), and could valorise low quality LCF because of their low productivity. Limiting the model to use only conventional, high productive, livestock reduced animal protein supply by 16% to 26 g/(cap*d). Besides the efficiency with which livestock used the available LCF, the estimated protein supply from livestock fed solely on LCF, was sensitive to assumptions regarding the availability and quality of LCF, especially grass resources. Our model provides valuable insights into how livestock can efficiently use LCF, which is essential for a transition towards a circular food system.

Biodiversity and ecosystem service losses driven by land-use change are expected to intensify as a growing and more affluent lobal population requires more agricultural and forestry products, and teleconnections in the global economy lead to increasingremote environmental responsibility. By combining global biophysical and economic models, we show that, between theyears 2000 and 2011, overall population and economic growth resulted in increasing total impacts on bird diversity and carbonsequestration globally, despite a reduction of land-use impacts per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The exceptions wereNorth America and Western Europe, where there was a reduction of forestry and agriculture impacts on nature accentuated bythe 2007–2008 financial crisis. Biodiversity losses occurred predominantly in Central and Southern America, Africa and Asiawith international trade an important and growing driver. In 2011, 33% of Central and Southern America and 26% of Africa’sbiodiversity impacts were driven by consumption in other world regions. Overall, cattle farming is the major driver of biodiversityloss, but oil seed production showed the largest increases in biodiversity impacts. Forestry activities exerted the highestimpact on carbon sequestration, and also showed the largest increase in the 2000–2011 period. Our results suggest that toaddress the biodiversity crisis, governments should take an equitable approach recognizing remote responsibility, and promotea shift of economic development towards activities with low biodiversity impacts.

Forage-based livestock production plays a key role in national and regional economies, for food security and poverty alleviation, but is considered a major contributor to agricultural GHG emissions. While demand for livestock products is predicted to increase, there is political and societal pressure both to reduce environmental impacts and to convert some of the pasture area to alternative uses, such as crop production and environmental conservation. Thus, it is essential to develop approaches for sustainable intensification of livestock systems to mitigate GHG emissions, addressing biophysical, socio-economic and policy challenges. This paper highlights the potential of improved tropical forages, linked with policy incentives, to enhance livestock production, while reducing its environmental footprint. Emphasis is on crop-livestock systems. We give examples for sustainable intensification to mitigate GHG emissions, based on improved forages in Brazil and Colombia, and suggest future perspectives. Resumen

In the light of daunting global sustainability challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss and food security, improving our understanding of the complex dynamics of the Earth system is crucial. However, large knowledge gaps related to the effects of land management persist, in particular those human-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems that do not result in land-cover conversions. Here, we review the current state of knowledge of ten common land management activities for their biogeochemical and biophysical impacts, the level of process understanding and data availability. Our review shows that ca. one-tenth of the ice-free land surface is under intense human management, half under medium and one-fifth under extensive management. Based on our review, we cluster these ten management activities into three groups: (i) management activities for which data sets are available, and for which a good knowledge base exists (cropland harvest and irrigation); (ii) management activities for which sufficient knowledge on biogeochemical and biophysical effects exists but robust global data sets are lacking (forest harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, N fertilization); and (iii) land management practices with severe data gaps concomitant with an unsatisfactory level of process understanding (crop species selection, artificial wetland drainage, tillage and fire management and crop residue management, an element of crop harvest). Although we identify multiple impediments to progress, we conclude that the current status of process understanding and data availability is sufficient to advance with incorporating management in, for example, Earth system or dynamic vegetation models in order to provide a systematic assessment of their role in the Earth system. This review contributes to a strategic prioritization of research efforts across multiple disciplines, including land system research, ecological research and Earth system modelling.

Feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6 Gt CO2 -eq. yr(-1) ) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3 Gt CO2 -eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ tCO2 -eq. yr(-1) ), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.

Study Question The 16th European IVF-monitoring (EIM) report presents the data of the treatments involving assisted reproductive technology (ART) and intrauterine insemination (IUI) initiated in Europe during 2012: are there any changes compared with previous years? Summary Answer Despite some fluctuations in the number of countries reporting data, the overall number of ART cycles has continued to increase year by year, the pregnancy rates (PRs) in 2012 remained stable compared with those reported in 2011, and the number of transfers with multiple embryos (3+) and the multiple delivery rates were lower than ever before. What is Known Already Since 1997, ART data in Europe have been collected and re-ported in 15 manuscripts, published in Human Reproduction. Study Design, Size, Duration Retrospective data collection of European ART data by the EIM Consortium for the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE). Data for cycles between 1 January and 31 December 2012 were collected from National Registers, when existing, or on a voluntary basis by personal information. Participants/Materials, Setting, Methods From 34 countries (+1 compared with 2011), 1111 clinics reported 640 144 treatment cycles including 139 978 of IVF, 312 600 of ICSI, 139 558 of frozen embryo replacement (FER), 33 605 of egg donation (ED), 421 of in vitro maturation, 8433 of preimplantation genetic diagnosis/preimplantation genetic screening and 5549 of frozen oocyte replacements (FOR). European data on intrauterine insemination using husband/partner's semen (IUI-H) and donor semen (IUI-D) were reported from 1126 IUI labs in 24 countries. A total of 175 028 IUI-H and 43 497 IUI-D cycles were included. Main Results and the Role of Chance In 18 countries where all clinics reported to their ART register, a total of 369 081 ART cycles were performed in a population of around 295 million inhabitants, corresponding to 1252 cycles per million inhabitants (range 325-2732 cycles per million inhabitants). For all IVF cycles, the clinical PRs per aspiration and per transfer were stable with 29.4 (29.1% in 2011) and 33.8% (33.2% in 2011), respectively. For ICSI, the corresponding rates also were stable with 27.8 (27.9% in 2011) and 32.3% (31.8% in 2011). In FER cycles, the PR per thawing/warming increased to 23.1% (21.3% in 2011). In ED cycles, the PR per fresh transfer increased to 48.4% (45.8% in 2011) and to 35.9% (33.6% in 2011) per thawed transfer, while it was 45.1% for transfers after FOR. The delivery rate after IUI remained stable, at 8.5% (8.3% in 2011) after IUI-H and 12.0% (12.2% in 2011) after IUI-D. In IVF and ICSI cycles, 1, 2, 3 and 4+ embryos were transferred in 30.2, 55.4, 13.3 and 1.1% of the cycles, respectively. The proportions of singleton, twin and triplet deliveries after IVF and ICSI (added together) were 82.1, 17.3 and 0.6%, respectively, resulting in a total multiple delivery rate of 17.9% compared with 19.2% in 2011 and 20.6% in 2010. In FER cycles, the multiple delivery rate was 12.5% (12.2% twins and 0.3% triplets). Twin and triplet delivery rates associated with IUI cycles were 9.0%/0.4% and 7.2%/0.5%, following treatment with husband and donor semen, respectively. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The method of reporting varies among countries, and registers from a number of countries have been unable to provide some of the relevant data such as initiated cycles and deliveries. As long as data are incomplete and generated through different methods of collection, results should be interpreted with caution. Wider Implications of the Findings The 16th ESHRE report on ART shows a continuing expansion of the number of treatment cycles in Europe, with more than 640 000 cycles reported in 2012 with an increasing contribution to birthrate in many countries. However, the need to improve and standardize the national registries, and to establish validation methodologies remains manifest. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS The study has no external funding; all costs are covered by ESHRE. There are no competing interests.

While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Land use is a cornerstone of human civilization, but also intrinsically linked to many global sustainability challenges—from climate change to food security to the ongoing biodiversity crisis. Understanding the underlying technological, institutional and economic drivers of land-use change, and how they play out in different environmental, socio-economic and cultural contexts, is therefore important for identifying effective policies to successfully address these challenges. In this regard, much can be learned from studying long-term land-use change. We examined the evolution of European land management over the past 200 years with the aim of identifying (1) key episodes of changes in land management, and (2) their underlying technological, institutional and economic drivers. To do so, we generated narratives elaborating on the drivers of land use-change at the country level for 28 countries in Europe. We qualitatively grouped drivers into land-management regimes, and compared changes in management regimes across Europe. Our results allowed discerning seven land-management regimes, and highlighted marked heterogeneity regarding the types of management regimes occurring in a particular country, the timing and prevalence of regimes, and the conditions that result in observed bifurcations. However, we also found strong similarities across countries in the timing of certain land-management regime shifts, often in relation to institutional reforms (e.g., changes in EU agrarian policies or the emergence and collapse of the Soviet land management paradigm) or to technological innovations (e.g., drainage pipes, tillage and harvesting machinery, motorization, and synthetic fertilizers). Land reforms frequently triggered changes in land management, and the location and timing of reforms had substantial impacts on land-use outcomes. Finally, forest protection policies and voluntary cooperatives were important drivers of land-management changes. Overall, our results demonstrate that land-system changes should not be conceived as unidirectional developments following predefined trajectories, but rather as path-dependent processes that may be affected by various drivers, including sudden events.

European forest use for fuel, timber and food dates back to pre-Roman times. Century-scale ecological processes and their legacy effects require accounting for forest management when studying today's forest carbon sink. Forest management reconstructions that are used to drive land surface models are one way to quantify the impact of both historical and today's large scale application of forest management on today's forest-related carbon sink and surface climate. In this study we reconstruct European forest management from 1600 to 2010 making use of diverse approaches, data sources and assumptions. Between 1600 and 1828, a demand-supply approach was used in which wood supply was reconstructed based on estimates of historical annual wood increment and land cover reconstructions. For the same period demand estimates accounted for the fuelwood needed in households, wood used in food processing, charcoal used in metal smelting and salt production, timber for construction and population estimates. Comparing estimated demand and supply resulted in a spatially explicit reconstruction of the share of forests under coppice, high stand management and forest left unmanaged. For the reconstruction between 1829 and 2010 a supply-driven back-casting method was used. The method used age reconstructions from the years 1950 to 2010 as its starting point. Our reconstruction reproduces the most important changes in forest management between 1600 and 2010: (1) an increase of 593 000 km2 in conifers at the expense of deciduous forest (decreasing by 538 000 km2), (2) a 612 000 km2 decrease in unmanaged forest, (3) a 152 000 km2 decrease in coppice management, (4) a 818 000 km2 increase in high stand management, and (5) the rise and fall of litter raking which at its peak in 1853 removed 50 Tg dry litter per year.

Increasing efficiency in livestock production and reducing the share of animal products in human consumption are two strategies to curb the adverse environmental impacts of the livestock sector. Here, we explore the room for sustainable livestock production by modelling the impacts and constraints of a third strategy in which livestock feed components that compete with direct human food crop production are reduced. Thus, in the outmost scenario, animals are fed only from grassland and by-products from food production. We show that this strategy could provide sufficient food (equal amounts of human-digestible energy and a similar protein/calorie ratio as in the reference scenario for 2050) and reduce environmental impacts compared with the reference scenario (in the most extreme case of zero human-edible concentrate feed: greenhouse gas emissions −18%; arable land occupation −26%, N-surplus −46%; P-surplus −40%; non-renewable energy use −36%, pesticide use intensity −22%, freshwater use −21%, soil erosion potential −12%). These results occur despite the fact that environmental efficiency of livestock production is reduced compared with the reference scenario, which is the consequence of the grassland-based feed for ruminants and the less optimal feeding rations based on by-products for non-ruminants. This apparent contradiction results from considerable reductions of animal products in human diets (protein intake per capita from livestock products reduced by 71%). We show that such a strategy focusing on feed components which do not compete with direct human food consumption offers a viable complement to strategies focusing on increased efficiency in production or reduced shares of animal products in consumption., Journal of the Royal Society. Interface, 12 (113), ISSN:1742-5689, ISSN:1742-5662

Land use is a pervasive driver of change in the earth system (Steffen et al., Ambio 36:614–621, 2007; Turner et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104:20666–20671, 2007). Today, the majority of the ice-free terrestrial surface has been affected in one way or another by human land use (McCloskey and Spalding, Ambio 18:221–227, 1989; Sanderson et al., BioScience 52:891–904, 2002), and since the beginning of agriculture, more than one third of all pristine terrestrial ecosystems have been converted to human-controlled, permanently managed ecosystems with fundamentally altered ecological characteristics (Erb et al., Journal of Land Use Science 2:191–224, 2007). By using the land, human societies alter structures and processes in ecosystems and thereby substantially affect global land cover, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycles of carbon, water, nitrogen, and many other patterns and processes, with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems and human well-being (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Ecosystems and human well-being: Current state and trends, 2005). Land use, on the one hand, provides the basis of nutrition, an array of resources and many essential ecosystem services to society. On the other hand, land use is increasingly jeopardising ecosystem functioning and thus threatens the biophysical basis of humanity. This fundamental trade-off related to land use leads to the emergence of an interdisciplinary research agenda, land-system science (Global Land Project, Science plan and implementation strategy. IGBP Report No. 53/ IHDP Report No. 19, 2005), which seeks to improve the observation of land changes as well as the understanding of these changes in a systemic context, including the interactions and feedback loops among social and natural systems (Turner et al., Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 67, 384–396, 2007).

A substantial fraction of the terrestrial carbon sink, past and present, may be incorrectly attributed to environmental change rather than changes in forest management.

Study question The 13th European in vitro fertilization (IVF)-monitoring (EIM) report presents the results of treatments involving assisted reproductive technology (ART) initiated in Europe during 2009: are there any changes in the trends compared with previous years? Summary answer Despite some fluctuations in the number of countries reporting data, the overall number of ART cycles has continued to increase year by year and, while pregnancy rates in 2009 remained similar to those reported in 2008, the number of transfers with multiple embryos (3+) and the multiple delivery rates declined. What is known already Since 1997, ART data in Europe have been collected and reported in 12 manuscripts, published in Human Reproduction. Study design, size, duration Retrospective data collection of European ART data by the EIM Consortium for the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE); cycles started between 1st January and 31st December are collected on a yearly basis; the data are collected by the National Registers, when existing, or on a voluntary basis. Participants/materials setting, methods From 34 countries (-2 compared with 2008), 1005 clinics reported 537 463 treatment cycles including: IVF (135 621), intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI, 266 084), frozen embryo replacement (FER, 104 153), egg donation (ED, 21 604), in vitro maturation (IVM, 1334), preimplantation genetic diagnosis/screening (PGD/PGS, 4389) and frozen oocyte replacements (FOR, 4278). European data on intrauterine insemination using husband/partner's semen (IUI-H) and donor (IUI-D) semen were reported from 21 and 18 countries, respectively. A total of 162 843 IUI-H (+12.7%) and 29 235 IUI-D (+17.3%) cycles were included. Data available from each country are presented in the tables; total values (as numbers and percentages) refer to those countries where all data have been reported. Main results and the role of chance In 21 countries where all clinics reported to the ART register, a total of 399 020 ART cycles were performed in a population of 373.8 million, corresponding to 1067 cycles per million inhabitants. For IVF, the clinical pregnancy rates per aspiration and per transfer were 28.9 and 32.9%, respectively and for ICSI, the corresponding rates were 28.7 and 32.0%. In FER cycles, the pregnancy rate per thawing was 20.9%; in ED cycles, the pregnancy rate per transfer was 42.3%. The delivery rate after IUI-H was 8.3 and 13.4% after IUI-D. In IVF and ICSI cycles, 1, 2, 3 and 4+ embryos were transferred in 24.2, 57.7, 16.9 and 1.2%, respectively. The proportions of singleton, twin and triplet deliveries after IVF and ICSI (combined) were 79.8, 19.4 and 0.8%, respectively, resulting in a total multiple delivery rate of 20.2%, compared with 21.7% in 2008, 22.3% in 2007, 20.8% in 2006 and 21.8% in 2005. In FER cycles, the multiple delivery rate was 13.0% (12.7% twins and 0.3% triplets). Twin and triplet delivery rates associated with IUI cycles were 10.4/0.7% and 10.3/0.5%, following treatment with husband and donor semen, respectively. Limitations, reasons for caution The method of reporting varies among countries, and registers from a number of countries have been unable to provide some of the relevant data such as initiated cycles and deliveries. As long as data are incomplete and generated through different methods of collection, results should be interpreted with caution. Wider implications of the findings The 13th ESHRE report on ART shows a continuing expansion of the number of treatment cycles in Europe, with more than half a million of cycles reported in 2009. The use of ICSI has reached a plateau. Pregnancy and delivery rates after IVF and ICSI remained relatively stable compared with 2008 and 2007. The number of multiple embryo transfers (3+ embryos) and the multiple delivery rate have shown a clear decline.

Rapid economic development in the past century has translated into severe pressures on species survival as a result of increasing land-use change, environmental pollution, and the spread of invasive alien species. However, though the impact of these pressures on biodiversity is substantial, it could be seriously underestimated if population declines of plants and animals lag behind contemporary environmental degradation. Here, we test for such a delay in impact by relating numbers of threatened species appearing on national red lists to historical and contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. Across 22 European countries, the proportions of vascular plants, bryophytes, mammals, reptiles, dragonflies, and grasshoppers facing medium-to-high extinction risks are more closely matched to indicators of socioeconomic pressures (i.e., human population density, per capita gross domestic product, and a measure of land use intensity) from the early or mid-, rather than the late, 20th century. We conclude that, irrespective of recent conservation actions, large-scale risks to biodiversity lag considerably behind contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. The negative impact of human activities on current biodiversity will not become fully realized until several decades into the future. Mitigating extinction risks might be an even greater challenge if temporal delays mean many threatened species might already be destined toward extinction.

Several streams of research have recently converged to identify the growing importance of distant drivers of land change, interconnections between social-ecological systems that are separated geographically, and the indirect consequences of land use changes. Local to national-scale interventions to promote sustainable land use may have unintended effects owing to a displacement of land use within and across countries. Such leakage or ‘indirect land use change’ critically depends on international geographies of trade. Computing various material flows and environmental indicators embodied in international trade highlights the differences between producer and consumer-based biophysical accounting. Causal attribution of the links between material and monetary flows across countries, and actual land changes and environmental impacts at local level requires a combination of economic simulation models, statistical studies, place-based empirical studies, value chain analyses, and biophysical accounting.

The quantity and quality of land use directly and indirectly relates to many “grand challenges” in sustainability science (Vitousek, 1997; Rindfuss et al., 2004; Global Land Project, 2005; Steffen et al., 2007; Turner et al., 2007). Land use is a major driver for habitat encroachment and biodiversity loss (Sala et al., 2000), for the alterations of global biogeochemical cycles (Gruber and Galloway, 2008; Postel et al., 1996; Vitousek et al., 1997) and for soil degradation (Lal, 2004). Changes in land use and subsequent changes in land cover play a central role in the global carbon cycle and significantly contribute to anthropogenic climate change (Brovkin et al., 2004; Canadell et al., 2007; McGuire et al., 2001; Watson et al., 2000). On the other hand, land use provides the nutritional basis for humans and thus of any socioeconomic system, and is intrinsically linked to food security (Ayres, 2007; Foley et al., 2005; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Research on global land use has a long tradition, reaching back to the work of G.P. Marsh (1865) and A. Von Humboldt (1849). It gained momentum in sustainability research in the mid-1970s, when the impact of land use on the global surface albedo was recognized (Lambin et al., 2006). Since then, many aspects of land use have been assessed, quantified and mapped across spatio-temporal scales. Two aspects of land use changes can be distinguished: (a) Changes in land cover, i.e. alterations of biophysical characteristics of the Earth's surface, e.g. by expansion or contraction of a certain land use type; a prominent example would be the expansion of agricultural fields into pristine forests. (b) Changes in land use intensity, denoting changes in the levels of socioeconomic inputs (e.g., labour, resources, water, energy or capital) and/or altered output (value or quantity) per unit area and time. Changes in intensity need not result in changes in land cover, but cause ecological changes within the same land cover type. Increasing land use intensity stands in an inverse relation to land expansion for increasing production. Consequently, a major effect of intensification may be to “spare” land, e.g. for wilderness conservation, by concentrating production on other areas (Tilman, 2001). Indeed, this effect is often assumed to be essential for many sustainability aspects, as it allows to reduce area demand and avoid considerable carbon emissions from deforestation (Burney et al., 2010) or habitat encroachment (Green et al., 2005). In the future, safeguarding the land-sparing effect of intensification could become decisive, given the rising nutritional and energy demands of a growing world population, and the concomitant need to protect the shrinking untouched habitats of the Earth, rich in biodiversity and carbon. Moreover, many policies that aim at harnessing land use for the goals of climate change mitigation, such as strategies aimed at expanding bioenergy production, or at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), will probably not be effective without the land sparing effect of intensification. On the other hand, many technologies required for intensification are associated with detrimental ecological impacts, such as the accumulation of toxins in food, ecosystem and soil degradation, groundwater and air pollution, or biodiversity loss (IAASTD, 2009; Matson et al., 1997; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Tilman, 2001). Such processes negatively affect the ability of ecosystems to sustain vital ecosystem services, thereby running the risk of jeopardizing human well-being in the long run (Foley et al., 2005). Thus, it will become imperative to find ways of sustainable intensification (Tilman et al., 2002) that allow reaping its land-sparing benefits while at the same time avoiding the detrimental social and ecological effects. However, the interrelation between intensification and expansion of land use is far from trivial. Empirical analyses of Rudel et al. (2009) on the interrelation between past trajectories in cropland expansion and intensification resulted in inconclusive findings. At the national scale, land use intensification was paired with a decline or stasis in cropland area between 1970 and 2005 only in countries that “externalized” agricultural production (e.g. grain imports) or preserved land with explicit land conservation programs (Rudel et al., 2009). These counterintuitive findings may be explained not only by large data gaps and uncertainties (Grainger, 2009), but also by feedback loops of higher order, such as a rebound effect of consumption to increased production, that overcompensated the land-sparing effect (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011). This altogether casts doubts on the straightforward interpretations or scenario-based extrapolations of the beneficial effects of land intensification strategies. These feedback loops of land transitions are active across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales (Global Land Project, 2005; Lambin and Geist, 2005; Bennett and Balvanera, 2007; Erb et al., 2009b; Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011). To take such feedbacks into account is indispensable, but it poses a formidable challenge to land change science (Turner et al., 2007), as it requires innovative methods and new perspectives that allow for the construction of sound causal chains between the various factors, mechanisms, determinants and constraints that underpin land-use intensification processes. In this commentary, I discuss the potential contribution of an extension of the socioeconomic metabolism concept (Ayers and Simonis, 1994; Ayres, 1989; Fischer-Kowalski and Huttler, 1998) by accounts that create an integrated picture of socio-ecological flows (Erb et al., 2008; Haberl et al., 2004; Krausmann et al., 2004) to global land system science. Such an approach could help to develop an analytical framework for conceptualizing and reporting on the complex, systemic interactions related to land use intensification, including feedbacks between production and consumption. It thus might give guidance for data collection and analysis, and so enhance the understanding of the interplay between land expansion and intensification.