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Abstract Social distancing interrupted transmission patterns of contact-driven infectious agents such as norovirus during the Covid-19 pandemic. Since routine surveillance of norovirus was additionally disrupted during the pandemic, traditional naïve forecasts that rely only on past public health surveillance data may not reliably represent norovirus activity. This study investigates the use of statistical modelling to predict the number of norovirus laboratory reports in England 4-weeks ahead of time before and during Covid-19 pandemic thus providing insights to inform existing practices in norovirus surveillance in England. We compare the predictive performance from three forecasting approaches that assume different underlying structure of the norovirus data and utilized various external data sources including mobility, air temperature and relative internet searches (Time Series and Regularized Generalized Linear Model, and Quantile Regression Forest). The performance of each approach was evaluated using multiple metrics, including a relative prediction error against the traditional naive forecast of a five-season mean. Our data suggest that all three forecasting approaches improve predictive performance over the naïve forecasts, especially in the 2020/21 season (30–45% relative improvement) when the number of norovirus reports reduced. The improvement ranged from 7 to 22% before the pandemic. However, performance varied: regularized regression incorporating internet searches showed the best forecasting score pre-pandemic and the time series approach achieved the best results post pandemic onset without external data. Overall, our results demonstrate that there is a significant value for public health in considering the adoption of more sophisticated forecasting tools, moving beyond traditional naïve methods, and utilizing available software to enhance the precision and timeliness of norovirus surveillance in England.

Abstract Background Children are important transmitters of norovirus infection and there is evidence that laboratory reports in children increase earlier in the norovirus season than in adults. This raises the question as to whether cases and outbreaks in children could provide an early warning of seasonal norovirus before cases start increasing in older, more vulnerable age groups. Methods This study uses weekly national surveillance data on reported outbreaks within schools, care homes and hospitals, general practice (GP) consultations for infectious intestinal disease (IID), telehealth calls for diarrhoea and/or vomiting and laboratory norovirus reports from across England, UK for nine norovirus seasons (2010/11–2018/19). Lagged correlation analysis was undertaken to identify lead or lag times between cases in children and those in adults for each surveillance dataset. A partial correlation analysis explored whether school outbreaks provided a lead time ahead of other surveillance indicators, controlling for breaks in the data due to school holidays. A breakpoint analysis was used to identify which surveillance indicator and age group provided the earliest warning of the norovirus season each year. Results School outbreaks occurred 3-weeks before care home and hospital outbreaks, norovirus laboratory reports and NHS 111 calls for diarrhoea, and provided a 2-week lead time ahead of NHS 111 calls for vomiting. Children provided a lead time ahead of adults for norovirus laboratory reports (+ 1–2 weeks), NHS 111 calls for vomiting (+ 1 week) and NHS 111 calls for diarrhoea (+ 1 week) but occurred concurrently with adults for GP consultations. Breakpoint analysis revealed an earlier seasonal increase in cases among children compared to adults for laboratory, GP and NHS 111 data, with school outbreaks increasing earlier than other surveillance indicators in five out of nine surveillance years. Conclusion These findings suggest that monitoring cases and outbreaks of norovirus in children could provide an early warning of seasonal norovirus infection. However, both school outbreak data and syndromic surveillance data are not norovirus specific and will also capture other causes of IID. The use of school outbreak data as an early warning indicator may be improved by enhancing sampling in community outbreaks to confirm the causative organism.

Abstract Background Outbreaks of infectious gastroenteritis are common in care homes for the elderly. Norovirus can cause these outbreaks, but diagnosis is frequently based solely on clinical characteristics. Our objective in this study was to describe the epidemiology of norovirus and other gastrointestinal pathogens in these settings. Methods We analysed surveillance data from gastroenteritis outbreaks reported in North East England between 04 July 2016 to 01 July 2018. Stool samples taken during these outbreaks were tested for a range of viral and bacterial pathogens. We described the epidemiology of these outbreaks and explored the characteristics of norovirus outbreaks versus from other viral causes using multivariable logistic regression. Results From the 566 care home gastroenteritis outbreaks in this study, we found that norovirus was the pathogen most frequently isolated. Norovirus was detected in 64% of outbreaks with a pathogen identified. Sapovirus was found in 13%; rotavirus in 11%. We found that norovirus outbreaks were associated with higher attack rates (aOR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05) and fewer cases sampled (aOR 0.74, 95% CI 0.60–0.91), compared to outbreaks caused by other viral pathogens. Conclusions These results are important as they quantify the contribution of norovirus to gastroenteritis outbreaks in care homes. Given this evidence, we emphasize the importance of non-specific outbreak interventions that can affect the impact of all such outbreaks. We further recommend that these findings are used to inform the implementation strategies of any norovirus-specific interventions such as a norovirus vaccine.

Abstract Background Norovirus is the commonest cause of infectious intestinal disease (IID) worldwide. In the UK community incidence of norovirus has been estimated at 59/1000 population, equating to four million cases a year. Whilst norovirus infects people of all ages, a substantial burden occurs in infants and young children. The population of viruses found in sporadic cases among infants has been observed to be more diverse than that associated with outbreaks. In this study, we analysed norovirus-positive specimens collected during the second study of infectious intestinal diseases (IID2 Study) a national community cohort study conducted between April 2008 and August 2009 We examined the data for differences in circulating norovirus strains between two arms of a community cohort, and differences between genotypes and disease outcomes such as illness duration and symptom profiles. Methods Analysis was conducted to assess genetic diversity of noroviruses in the community. We also assessed differences in the cycle threshold (Ct) value, as a proxy for viral load, between norovirus genogroups and genotypes, and differences in reported symptoms or length of illness in relation to genogroup and genotype. Results There were 477 samples where norovirus was detected. Whilst 85% of people recovered within two days for vomiting; diarrhoea symptoms were reported to day 4 for 83% of the cases, and 10% of people reported symptoms of diarrhoea lasting between five and six days. Both diarrhoea and vomiting symptoms lasted longer in children aged

Abstract Background Outbreaks of infectious gastroenteritis in care homes are common, with norovirus a frequent cause. In England there is no co-ordinated national surveillance system. We aimed to estimate the burden of these outbreaks. Methods Using a generalised linear mixed effects regression model we described the relationship between the observed number of care home outbreaks and covariates. Estimated model parameters were used to infer uplift in the number of outbreaks expected if all areas were subjected to enhanced surveillance. From this we then estimated the total burden of care home gastroenteritis outbreaks in this period. Results We estimated a total of 14,146 care home gastroenteritis outbreaks in England during 2014–2016; this is 47% higher than the reported total and a rate of 32.4 outbreaks per 100 care homes per year. The median number of outbreaks from the model estimates was 31 (IQR 20–46) compared to 19 (IQR 12–34) reported from routine surveillance. Conclusions This estimated care home gastroenteritis burden in England indicates that current surveillance substantially underestimates the number of outbreaks, by almost half. Improving this surveillance could provide better epidemiological knowledge of the burden of norovirus to inform public health policy, particularly with the advent of norovirus vaccines.

Norovirus is the commonest cause of gastrointestinal disease worldwide in. Infections with norovirus occur in all age groups, however, the highest incidence is in children aged less than five years. Surveillance of norovirus is complicated because most people do not contact medical services when they are ill. Nevertheless, Public health laboratory surveillance worldwide has demonstrated the dominance of GII.4 viruses in the population. Better epidemiological surveillance and outbreak investigations, coupled with wider implementation of molecular-based laboratory diagnostics are leading to better estimates of the burden of norovirus infections as well as improved outbreak control. Recent advances in cell culture systems for norovirus and current research investigating the distribution of norovirus-associated disease in the population, for whom the disease burden is greatest, understanding host susceptibility factors, and methodologies for ascertaining cases, are important in increasing our understanding of norovirus. The key to surveillance of norovirus is allying the epidemiology with surveillance of virology. With recent advances in laboratory culture systems for norovirus, next generation sequencing technologies, improved diagnostics and measuring phenotypic characteristics of noroviruses, there are new opportunities to advance understanding of this common and important human pathogen that will help design strategies for vaccine and antiviral development, and how these might be best deployed to control norovirus infection.

We evaluated clinical Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli O157 infections in England and Wales during 1983–2012 to describe changes in microbiological and surveillance methods. A strain replacement event was captured; phage type (PT) 2 decreased to account for just 3% of cases by 2012, whereas PT8 and PT21/28 strains concurrently emerged, constituting almost two thirds of cases by 2012. Despite interventions to control and reduce transmission, incidence remained constant. However, sources of infection changed over time; outbreaks caused by contaminated meat and milk declined, suggesting that interventions aimed at reducing meat cross-contamination were effective. Petting farm and school and nursery outbreaks increased, suggesting the emergence of other modes of transmission and potentially contributing to the sustained incidence over time. Studies assessing interventions and consideration of policies and guidance should be undertaken to reduce Shiga toxin–producing E. coli O157 infections in England and Wales in line with the latest epidemiologic findings.

Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) have been used since the 1990s. It is a composite measure of years of life lost with years lived with disability. Essentially, one DALY is the equivalent of a year of healthy life lost if a person had not experienced disease. Norovirus is the most common cause of gastrointestinal diseases worldwide. Norovirus activity varies from one season to the next for reasons not fully explained. Infection with norovirus is generally not severe, and is normally characterized as mild and self-limiting with no long-term sequelae. In this study, we model a range of estimates of DALYs for community cases of norovirus in England and Wales. We estimated a range of DALYs for norovirus to account for mixing of the severity of disease and the range of length of illness experienced by infected people. Our estimates were between 1159 and 4283 DALYs per year, or 0.3⁻1.2 years of healthy life lost per thousand cases of norovirus. These estimates provide evidence that norovirus leads to a considerable level of ill health in England and Wales. This information will be helpful should candidate norovirus vaccines become available in the future.

The number of deaths in England and Wales associated with gastrointestinal pathogens, norovirus in particular, in persons >65 years was estimated for 2001–2006. Regression analysis was used to model monthly counts of gastrointestinal pathogens in fecal samples from infected patients against monthly counts of deaths from infectious and noninfectious intestinal diseases. Data came from the Office of National Statistics (death registrations from local registrars) and from the Health Protection Agency (laboratory results). Model results suggest that 20% (13.3%–26.8%) of deaths in persons >65 years of age caused by infectious intestinal disease other than Clostridium difficile were associated with norovirus infection in this period and that 13% (7.5%–18.5%) of deaths caused by noninfectious intestinal disease were associated with norovirus. An estimated 80 deaths each year in this age group may be associated with norovirus infection.

In June 2006, reported outbreaks of norovirus on cruise ships suddenly increased; 43 outbreaks occurred on 13 vessels. All outbreaks investigated manifested person-to-person transmission. Detection of a point source was impossible because of limited investigation of initial outbreaks and data sharing. The most probable explanation for these outbreaks is increased norovirus activity in the community, which coincided with the emergence of 2 new GGII.4 variant strains in Europe and the Pacific. As in 2002, a new GGII.4 variant detected in the spring and summer corresponded with high norovirus activity in the subsequent winter. Because outbreaks on cruise ships are likely to occur when new variants circulate, an active reporting system could function as an early warning system. Internationally accepted guidelines are needed for reporting, investigating, and controlling norovirus illness on cruise ships in Europe.

A questionnaire was completed by 53 putative sufferers from Parkinson’s disease and 31 putative age-matched normal controls. The aim of the questionnaire was to elicit reports of any changes in visual perception. The incidence of self-reported Parkinsonian symptoms was very much higher in the patient group than in the controls. The patients reported significantly more problems with depth and motion perception than the controls. They also reported a significantly higher incidence of hallucinations, double vision and the need to turn the head to see objects in the periphery. However, the reported incidence of changes in brightness, colour, shape and size perception was not significantly different in the two groups. The results are discussed with reference to laboratory studies of Parkinsonian vision and to the likely neurological basis of some of the changes.

Reliability-based design (RBD) is being adopted by geotechnical design codes worldwide, and it is therefore necessary that rock engineering practice evolves to embrace RBD. This paper examines the Hoek-Brown (HB) strength criterion within the RBD framework, and presents three distinct analyses using a Bayesian approach. Firstly, a compilation of intact compressive strength test data for six rock types is used to examine uncertainty and variability in the estimated HB parameters m and σc, and corresponding predicted axial strength. The results suggest that within- and between-rock type variabilities are so large that these parameters need to be determined from rock testing campaigns, rather than reference values being used. The second analysis uses an extensive set of compressive and tensile (both direct and indirect) strength data for a granodiorite, together with a new Bayesian regression model, to develop joint probability distributions of m and σc suitable for use in RBD. This analysis also shows how compressive and indirect tensile strength data may be robustly used to fit an HB criterion. The third analysis uses the granodiorite data to investigate the important matter of developing characteristic strength criteria. Using definitions from Eurocode 7, a formal Bayesian interpretation of characteristic strength is proposed and used to analyse strength data to generate a characteristic criterion. These criteria are presented in terms of characteristic parameters mk and σck, the values of which are shown to depend on the testing regime used to obtain the strength data. The paper confirms that careful use of appropriate Bayesian statistical analysis allows the HB criterion to be brought within the framework of RBD. It also reveals that testing guidelines such as the International Society for Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering (ISRM) suggested methods will require modification in order to support RBD. Importantly, the need to fully understand the implications of uncertainty in nonlinear strength criteria is identified. Keywords: Reliability-based design (RBD), Hoek-Brown (HB) criterion, Bayesian regression, Indirect tensile strength, Characteristic strength criterion

Few population-based epidemiologic data are available on malformation phenotypes that co-occur with orofacial clefts. We explored the occurrence of structural congenital malformations in offspring with cleft palate (CP) and in offspring with cleft lip with or without CP (CLP), using data from a population-based active surveillance system. Ascertainment was performed among 3,548,991 liveborn and 23,239 stillborn offspring of California women who delivered in nonmilitary hospitals during the period, 1983–1997. Structural congenital malformations were found in 91,888 births. Among them, 2,343 had CP and 4,072 had CLP. Malformations were grouped according to 3- and 4-digit codes of the British Pediatric Association (BPA). Prevalences of each malformation grouping, defined by these codes, were calculated among: (1) all births with CP; (2) all births with CLP; (3) all births without CP or CLP but with another structural malformation; and (4) all births in the population at risk. These various prevalence measures were the basis of estimating relative risks. Observed relative risks indicated that some phenotypes were more likely and some were less likely to co-occur with either CP or CLP, with relative risks ranging from 0.5 to 2.4. For both CP and CLP, estimated relative risks were highest for malformations involving the respiratory system and lowest for spina bifida. The exclusion of all births (n = 10,702) with chromosomal anomalies from comparisons did not materially alter observed relative risk estimates. Computations extended to 4-digit level BPA codes revealed elevated risks for a number of more specific diagnoses seen within the larger (3-digit level) groupings defined as eye, ear, respiratory, upper alimentary tract, and other musculoskeletal anomalies. In this large population-based cohort of infants and fetuses with CLP or CP, we observed several noncleft malformation groupings to be more common and others to be less common in their co-occurrence with orofacial clefts relative to their co-occurrence with any other malformation. These observed patterns tended to be similar for CP and for CLP. © 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundNorovirus is associated with approximately 18% of the global burden of gastroenteritis and affects all age groups. There is currently no licensed vaccine or available antiviral treatment. However, well-designed early warning systems and forecasting can guide nonpharmaceutical approaches to norovirus infection prevention and control. ObjectiveThis study evaluates the predictive power of existing syndromic surveillance data and emerging data sources, such as internet searches and Wikipedia page views, to predict norovirus activity across a range of age groups across England. MethodsWe used existing syndromic surveillance and emerging syndromic data to predict laboratory data indicating norovirus activity. Two methods are used to evaluate the predictive potential of syndromic variables. First, the Granger causality framework was used to assess whether individual variables precede changes in norovirus laboratory reports in a given region or an age group. Then, we used random forest modeling to estimate the importance of each variable in the context of others with two methods: (1) change in the mean square error and (2) node purity. Finally, these results were combined into a visualization indicating the most influential predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in a specific age group and region. ResultsOur results suggest that syndromic surveillance data include valuable predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in England. However, Wikipedia page views are less likely to provide prediction improvements on top of Google Trends and Existing Syndromic Data. Predictors displayed varying relevance across age groups and regions. For example, the random forest modeling based on selected existing and emerging syndromic variables explained 60% variance in the ≥65 years age group, 42% in the East of England, but only 13% in the South West region. Emerging data sets highlighted relative search volumes, including “flu symptoms,” “norovirus in pregnancy,” and norovirus activity in specific years, such as “norovirus 2016.” Symptoms of vomiting and gastroenteritis in multiple age groups were identified as important predictors within existing data sources. ConclusionsExisting and emerging data sources can help predict norovirus activity in England in some age groups and geographic regions, particularly, predictors concerning vomiting, gastroenteritis, and norovirus in the vulnerable populations and historical terms such as stomach flu. However, syndromic predictors were less relevant in some age groups and regions likely due to contrasting public health practices between regions and health information–seeking behavior between age groups. Additionally, predictors relevant to one norovirus season may not contribute to other seasons. Data biases, such as low spatial granularity in Google Trends and especially in Wikipedia data, also play a role in the results. Moreover, internet searches can provide insight into mental models, that is, an individual’s conceptual understanding of norovirus infection and transmission, which could be used in public health communication strategies.

Symptom profiles have previously been identified for infectious intestinal disease (IID) which distinguish bacterial from viral organisms. However, there is evidence that the seasonality, severity, and duration of IID may differ between children, adults and elderly. A secondary data analysis was undertaken to explore whether symptom profiles for bacterial and viral IID vary across different age groups. Data from 844 cases of IID were divided into three age categories: 65 years. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to compare the significance of different symptoms across the three age groups. The odds of bacterial IID in children were increased by onset in the summer, diarrhoea in the absence of vomiting and fever. These symptoms were also associated with lower odds of a viral pathogen. In adults, diarrhoea but no vomiting, bloody diarrhoea and diarrhoea lasting more than 3 days were associated with increased odds of a bacterial organism, whilst onset in the winter or spring and a loss of appetite were associated with viral IID. In the elderly, diarrhoea in the absence of vomiting and diarrhoea lasting more than 3 days were associated with higher odds of bacterial IID and lower odds of a viral cause. Only diarrhoea in the absence of vomiting emerged as a key symptom across all three age groups. Variation in symptom profiles by age has implications for clinicians, public health specialists and epidemiologists who use symptoms to guide presumptive diagnoses in the absence of microbiological confirmation.

BackgroundInfectious intestinal disease (IID) is common, and children are more likely than adults both to have IID and to transmit infection onto others. Before the introduction of the vaccine, rotavirus was the leading cause of severe childhood diarrhea, with norovirus and Campylobacter predominate pathogens. Public health surveillance of IID is primarily based on health care data, and as such, illness that is managed within the community will often go undetected. School attendance registers offer a novel data set that has the potential to identify community cases and outbreaks of IID that would otherwise be missed by current health surveillance systems. Although studies have explored the role of school attendance registers in the monitoring of influenza among children, no studies have been identified that consider this approach in the surveillance of IID. ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to explore the role and utility of school attendance registers in the detection and surveillance of IID in children. The secondary aims are to estimate the burden of IID on school absenteeism and to assess the impact of the rotavirus vaccine on illness absence among school-aged children. MethodsThis study is a retrospective analysis of school attendance registers to investigate whether school absences due to illness can be used to capture seasonal trends and outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease among school-aged children. School absences in Merseyside, United Kingdom will be compared and combined with routine health surveillance data from primary care, laboratories, and telehealth services. These data will be used to model spatial and temporal variations in the incidence of IID and to apportion likely causes to changes in school absenteeism trends. This will be used to assess the potential utility of school attendance data in the surveillance of IID and to estimate the burden of IID absenteeism in schools. It will also inform an analysis of the impact of the rotavirus vaccine on disease within this age group. ResultsThis study has received ethical approval from the University of Liverpool Research Ethics Committee (reference number 1819). Use of general practice data has been approved for the evaluation of rotavirus vaccination in Merseyside by NHS Research Ethics Committee, South Central-Berkshire REC Reference 14/SC/1140. ConclusionsThis study is unique in considering whether school attendance registers could be used to enhance the surveillance of IID. Such data have multiple potential applications and could improve the identification of outbreaks within schools, allowing early intervention to reduce transmission both within and outside of school settings. These data have the potential to act as an early warning system, identifying infections circulating within the community before they enter health care settings. School attendance data could also inform the evaluation of vaccination programs, such as rotavirus and, in time, norovirus. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)DERR1-10.2196/30078

Objectives Reporting of COVID-19 cases, deaths and testing has often lacked context for appropriate assessment of disease burden within risk groups. The research considers how routine surveillance data might provide initial insights and identify risk factors, setting COVID-19 deaths early in the pandemic into context. This will facilitate the understanding of wider consequences of a pandemic from the earliest stage, reducing fear, aiding in accurately assessing disease burden and ensuring appropriate disease mitigation.Setting UK, 2020.Participants The study is a secondary analysis of routine, public domain, surveillance data and information from Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Health Service (NHS) 111 and Public Health England (PHE) on deaths and disease.Primary and secondary outcome measures Our principal focus is ONS data on deaths mentioning COVID-19 on the death certificate. We also consider information provided in NHS 111 and PHE data summaries.Results Deaths with COVID-19 significantly contributed to, yet do not entirely explain, abnormally elevated all-cause mortality in the UK from weeks 12–18 of 2020. Early in the UK epidemic, COVID-19 was the greatest threat to those with underlying illness, rarely endangering people aged under 40 years. COVID-19-related death rates differed by region, possibly reflecting underlying population structure. Risk of COVID-19-related death was greater for healthcare and social care staff and black, Asian and minority ethnic individuals, having allowed for documented risk factors.Conclusion Early contextualisation of public health data is critical to recognising who gets sick, when and why. Understanding at-risk groups facilitates a targeted response considering indirect consequences of society’s reaction to a pandemic alongside disease-related impacts. COVID-19-related deaths mainly mirror historical patterns, and excess non-COVID-19-related deaths partly reflect reduced access to and uptake of healthcare during lockdown. Future outbreak response will improve through better understanding of connectivity between disease monitoring systems to aid interpretation of disease risk patterns, facilitating nuanced mitigation measures.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has impacted surveillance activities for multiple pathogens. Since March 2020, there was a decline in the number of reports of norovirus and Campylobacter recorded by England's national laboratory surveillance system. The aim is to estimate and compare the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on norovirus and Campylobacter surveillance data in England.MethodsWe utilised two quasi-experimental approaches based on a generalised linear model for sequential count data. The first approach estimates overall impact and the second approach focuses on the impact of specific elements of the pandemic response (COVID-19 diagnostic testing and control measures). The following time series (27, 2015-43, 2020) were used: weekly laboratory-confirmed norovirus and Campylobacter reports, air temperature, conducted Sars-CoV-2 tests and Index of COVID-19 control measures stringency.ResultsThe period of Sars-CoV-2 emergence and subsequent sustained transmission was associated with persistent reductions in norovirus laboratory reports (p = 0.001), whereas the reductions were more pronounced during pandemic emergence and later recovered for Campylobacter (p = 0.075). The total estimated reduction was 47% - 79% for norovirus (12-43, 2020). The total reduction varied by time for Campylobacter, e.g. 19% - 33% in April, 1% - 7% in August.ConclusionLaboratory reporting of norovirus was more adversely impacted than Campylobacter by the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be partially explained by a comparatively stronger effect of behavioural interventions on norovirus transmission and a relatively greater reduction in norovirus testing capacity. Our study underlines the differential impact a pandemic may have on surveillance of gastrointestinal infectious diseases.

Objectives To estimate the incidence of gastroenteritis in individuals in care homes.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting Five participating care homes in North West England, UK.Participants Residents and staff present at the five study care homes between 15 August 2017 and 30 May 2019 (n=268).Outcome measures We calculated incidence rates for all gastroenteritis cases per 1000 person-years at risk and per 1000 bed-days at risk. We also calculated the incidence rate of gastroenteritis outbreaks per 100 care homes per year.Results In total 45 cases were reported during the surveillance period, equating to 133.7 cases per 1000 person-years at risk. In residents the incidence rate was 0.62 cases per 1000 bed-days. We observed seven outbreaks in all care homes included in surveillance, a rate of 76.4 outbreaks per 100 care homes per year. 15 stool samples were tested; three were positive for norovirus, no other pathogens were detected.Conclusions We found that surveillance of infectious gastroenteritis disease in care homes based on outbreaks, the current general approach, detected a majority of cases of gastroenteritis. However, if policymakers are to estimate the burden of infectious gastroenteritis in this setting using only routine outbreak surveillance data and not accounting for non-outbreak cases, this study implies that the total burden will be underestimated.

Norovirus is the commonest cause of acute gastrointestinal disease and is the main aetiological agent of outbreaks of gastroenteritis, particularly in semi-closed environments. Norovirus infections in England typically peak between December and March each year. The most commonly detected norovirus strains belong to the genetically diverse genogroup-II genotype-4 (GII-4) genocluster and in the previous two norovirus winter seasons the majority of GII-4 strains in circulation worldwide have been genetically similar to the GII-4 strain New Orleans 1805/2009/USA. At the beginning of the 2012/13 season a genetically distinct GII-4 strain (Sydney 2012/NSW0514/2012/AU) was described which emerged worldwide during the winter of 2012/13. Here we describe the emergence of norovirus strains genetically related to Sydney2012 in England during the 2012/13 season to replace NewOrleans2009 strains as the most commonly detected variant of GII-4 norovirus in England. Furthermore, we demonstrate that whilst the emergence of Sydney2012 coincided with an early peak in the number of norovirus outbreaks, there was not an overall increase in norovirus activity compared to the previous season. Finally, we show that the Sydney2012 strain is associated with distinct genetic changes compared to the NewOrleans2009 strain, and these changes may have contributed to the emergence of the Sydney2012 strain.

Early observations from countries that have introduced rotavirus vaccination suggest that there may be indirect protection for unvaccinated individuals, but it is unclear whether these benefits will extend to the long term. Transmission dynamic models have attempted to quantify the indirect protection that might be expected from rotavirus vaccination in developed countries, but results have varied. To better understand the magnitude and sources of variability in model projections, we undertook a comparative analysis of transmission dynamic models for rotavirus. We fit five models to reported rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) data from England and Wales, and evaluated outcomes for short- and long-term vaccination effects. All of our models reproduced the important features of rotavirus epidemics in England and Wales. Models predicted that during the initial year after vaccine introduction, incidence of severe RVGE would be reduced 1.8-2.9 times more than expected from the direct effects of the vaccine alone (28-50% at 90% coverage), but over a 5-year period following vaccine introduction severe RVGE would be reduced only by 1.1-1.7 times more than expected from the direct effects (54-90% at 90% coverage). Projections for the long-term reduction of severe RVGE ranged from a 55% reduction at full coverage to elimination with at least 80% coverage. Our models predicted short-term reductions in the incidence of RVGE that exceeded estimates of the direct effects, consistent with observations from the United States and other countries. Some of the models predicted that the short-term indirect benefits may be offset by a partial shifting of the burden of RVGE to older unvaccinated individuals. Nonetheless, even when such a shift occurs, the overall reduction in severe RVGE is considerable. Discrepancies among model predictions reflect uncertainties about age variation in the risk and reporting of RVGE, and the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity, highlighting important questions for future research.

Perception of a moving visual stimulus can be suppressed or enhanced by surrounding context in adjacent parts of the visual field. We studied the neural processes underlying such contextual modulation with fMRI. We selected motion selective regions of interest (ROI) in the occipital and parietal lobes with sufficiently well defined topography to preclude direct activation by the surround. BOLD signal in the ROIs was suppressed when surround motion direction matched central stimulus direction, and increased when it was opposite. With the exception of hMT+/V5, inserting a gap between the stimulus and the surround abolished surround modulation. This dissociation between hMT+/V5 and other motion selective regions prompted us to ask whether motion perception is closely linked to processing in hMT+/V5, or reflects the net activity across all motion selective cortex. The motion aftereffect (MAE) provided a measure of motion perception, and the same stimulus configurations that were used in the fMRI experiments served as adapters. Using a linear model, we found that the MAE was predicted more accurately by the BOLD signal in hMT+/V5 than it was by the BOLD signal in other motion selective regions. However, a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy could be achieved by using the net activity across all motion selective cortex as a predictor, suggesting the overall conclusion that visual motion perception depends upon the integration of activity across different areas of visual cortex.