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Abstract Invasive species are a major threat to global biodiversity, yet also represent large‐scale unplanned ecological and evolutionary experiments to address fundamental questions in nature. Here we analyzed both native and invasive populations of predatory northern pike (Esox lucius) to characterize landscape genetic variation, determine the most likely origins of introduced populations, and investigate a presumably postglacial population from Southeast Alaska of unclear provenance. Using a set of 4329 SNPs from 351 individual Alaskan northern pike representing the most widespread geographic sampling to date, our results confirm low levels of genetic diversity in native populations (average 𝝅 of 3.18 × 10−4) and even less in invasive populations (average 𝝅 of 2.68 × 10−4) consistent with bottleneck effects. Our analyses indicate that invasive northern pike likely came from multiple introductions from different native Alaskan populations and subsequently dispersed from original introduction sites. At the broadest scale, invasive populations appear to have been founded from two distinct regions of Alaska, indicative of two independent introduction events. Genetic admixture resulting from introductions from multiple source populations may have mitigated the negative effects associated with genetic bottlenecks in this species with naturally low levels of genetic diversity. Genomic signatures strongly suggest an excess of rare, population‐specific alleles, pointing to a small number of founding individuals in both native and introduced populations consistent with a species' life history of limited dispersal and gene flow. Lastly, the results strongly suggest that a small isolated population of pike, located in Southeast Alaska, is native in origin rather than stemming from a contemporary introduction event. Although theory predicts that lack of genetic variation may limit colonization success of novel environments, we detected no evidence that a lack of standing variation limited the success of this genetically depauperate apex predator.

Abstract Climate change will continue to be an important consideration for conservation practitioners. However, uncertainty in identifying appropriate management strategies, particularly for understudied species and regions, constrains the implementation of science‐based solutions and adaptation strategies. Here, we share a decision‐path approach to reduce uncertainty in climate change responses of inland fishes to inform conservation and adaptation planning. With the Fish and Climate Change database (FiCli), a comprehensive, online, public database of peer‐reviewed literature on documented and projected climate impacts to inland fishes, users can identify relevant studies and associated management recommendations via geographic regions, response types (i.e., fish assemblage dynamics, demographic, distributional, evolutionary, phenological), fish taxa, and traits (e.g., thermal guilds, feeding type, parental care, habitat type) and use a suite of summary tools to make more informed decisions. For both data‐rich and data‐poor scenarios, we demonstrate that this approach can reduce uncertainty in understanding climate change responses. Using thermal sensitivity as an example, we also establish the utility of FiCli database to address other user‐defined, management‐relevant questions via supplementary analyses. This decision‐path approach can be applied to rapid assessments, management decisions, and policy development and may serve as a model for other conservation decision‐making processes.

The relentless role of invasive species in the extinction of native biota requires predictions of ecosystem vulnerability to inform proactive management strategies. The worldwide invasion and range expansion of predatory northern pike (Esox lucius) has been linked to the decline of native fishes and tools are needed to predict the vulnerability of habitats to invasion over broad geographic scales. To address this need, we coupled an intrinsic potential habitat modelling approach with a Bayesian network to evaluate the vulnerability of five culturally and economically vital species of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) to invasion by northern pike. This study was conducted along 22,875 stream km in the Southcentral region of Alaska, USA. Pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) were the most vulnerable species, with 15.2% (2,458 km) of their calculated extent identified as "highly" vulnerable, followed closely by chum salmon (O. keta, 14.8%; 2,557 km) and coho salmon (O. kisutch, 14.7%; 2,536 km). Moreover, all five Pacific salmon species were highly vulnerable in 1,001 stream km of shared habitat. This simple to implement, adaptable, and cost-effective framework will allow prioritizing habitats for early detection and monitoring of invading northern pike.

Density-dependent (DD) and density-independent (DI) habitat selection is strongly linked to a species' evolutionary history. Determining the relative importance of each is necessary because declining populations are not always the result of altered DI mechanisms but can often be the result of DD via a reduced carrying capacity. We developed spatially and temporally explicit models throughout the Chena River, Alaska to predict important DI mechanisms that influence Chinook salmon spawning success. We used resource-selection functions to predict suitable spawning habitat based on geomorphic characteristics, a semi-distributed water-and-energy balance hydrologic model to generate stream flow metrics, and modeled stream temperature as a function of climatic variables. Spawner counts were predicted throughout the core and periphery spawning sections of the Chena River from escapement estimates (DD) and DI variables. Additionally, we used isodar analysis to identify whether spawners actively defend spawning habitat or follow an ideal free distribution along the riverscape. Aerial counts were best explained by escapement and reference to the core or periphery, while no models with DI variables were supported in the candidate set. Furthermore, isodar plots indicated habitat selection was best explained by ideal free distributions, although there was strong evidence for active defense of core spawning habitat. Our results are surprising, given salmon commonly defend spawning resources, and are likely due to competition occurring at finer spatial scales than addressed in this study.

Processes that influence habitat selection in landscapes involve the interaction of habitat composition and configuration and are particularly important for species with complex life cycles. We assessed the relative influence of landscape spatial processes and local habitat characteristics on patterns in the distribution and abundance of spawning steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a threatened salmonid fish, across ∼15,000 stream km in the John Day River basin, Oregon, USA. We used hurdle regression and a multi-model information theoretic approach to identify the relative importance of covariates representing key aspects of the steelhead life cycle (e.g., site access, spawning habitat quality, juvenile survival) at two spatial scales: within 2-km long survey reaches (local sites) and ecological neighborhoods (5 km) surrounding the local sites. Based on Akaike's Information Criterion, models that included covariates describing ecological neighborhoods provided the best description of the distribution and abundance of steelhead spawning given the data. Among these covariates, our representation of offspring survival (growing-season-degree-days, °C) had the strongest effect size (7x) relative to other predictors. Predictive performances of model-averaged composite and neighborhood-only models were better than a site-only model based on both occurrence (percentage of sites correctly classified = 0.80±0.03 SD, 0.78±0.02 vs. 0.62±0.05, respectively) and counts (root mean square error = 3.37, 3.93 vs. 5.57, respectively). The importance of both temperature and stream flow for steelhead spawning suggest this species may be highly sensitive to impacts of land and water uses, and to projected climate impacts in the region and that landscape context, complementation, and connectivity will drive how this species responds to future environments.