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Since the first quarter of 2020, due to the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, which is continuing unabated with the periodical emergence of new variants, international tourism has become one of the most affected sources of external earnings for developing countries. For the South Asian countries, the crisis was predicted to result in a 42% to 60% drop in tourist arrivals in 2020 and 2021. Tourism has been providing a great impetus to the growth of the informal sector supported by information and communication technology and the participation of women, both full-time and part-time in several small and minienterprises. This panel study employing a nonlinear econometric methodology confirms the existence of an asymmetric association between tourism and economic growth for six South Asian countries for the period 1995 to 2018 for which data series are complete and officially available. While the positive partial-sum decomposition of tourism increased economic growth, the negative-sum decomposition of tourism had a much greater adverse effect on economic growth. There are some relevant conclusions with policy implications in the context of continuing uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the ongoing trade dispute between China and the United States, our study attempts to investigate the sensitivity of global commodity prices to the appreciation and depreciation of renminbi (RMB). Using quarterly data of 1994–2016, we reach three notable findings based on linear and non-linear specifications of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. First, the global price for selected agricultural commodities is sensitive to the appreciation of RMB, exercising downward pressure on agricultural commodity markets. Second, the global price for crude oil is found to react negatively to real appreciation of RMB. Third, the global price for selected metal commodities is found to respond negatively to changes in RMB. Based on these findings, we suggest China adopts a one-off appreciation instead of tariffs on imported commodities to prevent the fluctuation of commodity prices and realize the self-sufficiency goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign aid and remittance inflows have been playing major roles in the economic growth and development of Pacific island countries (PICs). However, the relationship between these international capital inflows and export competitiveness of PICs has not been adequately studied. It is generally held that such capital transfers tend to hurt exports, a phenomenon known as Dutch disease. The objective of this paper is to examine the validity of the Dutch disease hypothesis in PICs with a case study of Fiji. Employing the bounds testing procedure, this empirical study reveals that inflows of both foreign aid and remittances have been contributing to the appreciation of Fiji's currency. The study establishes the validity of the Dutch disease hypothesis as far as Fiji is concerned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the midst of declining external demand due to the world economic downturn since 2008, the tourism sector has emerged as a major source of support to the South Pacific island countries, including Fiji. Tourists from the region's two advanced economies, Australia and New Zealand, find Fiji a more affordable tourist destination than distant European and Asian holiday resorts. The development of the tourism sector in Fiji owes much to foreign direct investment (FDI) in hotels, resorts and other infrastructural facilities. This paper uses bounds cointegration technique and investigates the contribution of FDI to Fiji's tourism sector. The analysis identifies positive associations between FDI and tourism earnings as well as between currency depreciation and tourism earnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pacific island countries (PICs), which attained political independence, are open economies with very small manufacturing base and narrow range of exports of copra and tuna. They are highly dependent on imports ranging from food and mineral fuels to intermediate and capital goods and transport machinery. Four of the 14 PICs, namely Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu, have independent currencies with usual paraphernalia of central banks under fixed exchange rate regimes. Their financial sectors are small and with undeveloped money and capital markets. The nominal exchange rate as an anchor has served the four PICs well by keeping inflation low. The objective of the paper is to investigate whether money has played any significant part in output growth as well as determination of prices in PICs. The findings are that broad money (M2) and exchange rate have a long run as well as short-run casual relationship with both output and prices in all PICs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the current recession in industrialized countries and the resultant dim prospects for exports from small Pacific island countries, mobilization of foreign exchange earnings assumes considerable importance. The dependency of Samoa and Tonga on inward remittances is well known, as the two Polynesian island countries in recent years have been among the first top ten remittance recipient countries of the world. This paper examines the long-run nexus between economic growth and inward remittances during a three-decade period (1981-2008). The paper also discusses some important policy implications arising out of the study's findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remittances have been a great support to Pacific island countries (PICs). Aside from providing additions to domestic savings and, hence, real resources, they have been one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings. In the context of falling exports and limited options to diversify their exports, inward remittances have assumed greater importance. This paper examines the nexus between growth and remittances in Samoa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the results of a study on the endogeneity of money in several Pacific Island countries (PIC) using some econometric methods. It states the statistical significance of a narrow money, which would indicate the possibility that an increase in the reserve would result in greater narrow money in the long term. Based on Granger Casuality Test, a bi-directional causality was observed between aggregates and reserve money for Fiji and Vanuatu. It was noted both Fiji and Vanuatu cannot depend on reserve money.

This paper re-visits the subject of a common currency for the Pacific region, comprising 14 Pacific island countries (PICs) and the region's two advanced countries, Australia and New Zealand. The PICs are highly dependent on Australia and New Zealand for trade in goods and services and aid inflows. Earlier studies on regional common currency, which dealt with certain aspects of the optimum currency area conditions, took into consideration three kinds of shocks, namely shocks in world output, domestic output and price levels. Since PICs' growth is influenced by regional developments to a larger degree than by world developments, this paper takes into consideration regional shocks, in addition to shocks in global and national outputs. Using variance decomposition analysis in this paper we investigate whether PICs and the region's two advanced countries could be suitable candidates for a currency union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - Under the fixed exchange rate regime Fiji's currency, which is pegged to a basket of currencies of its major trading partners, has been experiencing severe pressures. The purpose of this paper is to study annual exchange market pressure (EMP) over a 31-year (1975-2005) period and attempt to determine the factors behind EMP. Design/methodology/approach - The paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure, which is applied to a multivariate model covering four variables, namely EMP in index numbers, and budget deficit, domestic credit to private sector and external debt, all the three expressed as percentages of gross domestic product. Additionally, an uncertainty variable is added to the regression analysis with a view to finding out whether political uncertainty has been responsible for speculative attacks on currency. Existence of a cointegration vector is then investigated. It is then followed by Granger-causality tests in an error-correction model with view to exploring the short- and long-term relationships between the variables. Findings - The study findings are: there existed a long-run relationship between EMP and budget deficit, domestic credit to private sector, external debt and political uncertainty; and EMP was positively related to budget deficit, domestic credit to private sector and external debt as well as speculative pressures exercised by political uncertainty. Originality/value - The empirical study on EMP in the South Pacific Island countries and in Fiji in particular is the first of its kind. The paper is expected to promote further interest in the studies of currencies of small island countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Pacific island countries (PICs), ever since their independence during the second half of the last century, have been among the world's top ten recipients of official development assistance (ODA) on a per capita basis. Until the mid 1990s, most of them were receiving aid from their erstwhile colonial masters for budgetary support. With the introduction of reforms in ODA delivery in the late 1990s with focus on program and project-tied aid, it was expected that aid would directly facilitate creation of much-needed growth enhancing infrastructures, physical as well as social, since domestic savings were found to be insufficient to finance them. However, continued stagnation in some PICs and deterioration in some others have been causing concerns. This paper seeks to examine the effectiveness of aid by undertaking a case study of Fiji, which has a longer time series data needed for econometric investigation. Based on the study's findings, the paper lists some policy conclusions relevant to the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a global economy, the South Pacific islands face unique constraints to growth. The study investigates whether Fiji was benefited by three-decade old open trade policies. Through a multivariate cointegration analysis, the study establishes the existence of a long-run relationship between open trade policy and physical and human capital resources. Although physical capital had a positive impact on growth, the existing complementary relationship between two kinds of capital requires that a threshold between physical and human capital needs to be attained before any negative influence on growth can be transformed into positive impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing public debt of Fiji has been causing concerns all around. As part of countercyclical measures, the Government stepped up public expenditure from 2001 in response to the adverse consequences of the 2000 civilian coup, which witnessed a decline in investor confidence, resulting in a steep fall in private sector investment. Expansionary fiscal policy measures in the annual budgets of 2001 to 2004 as well as unforeseen natural disaster management expenditures have pushed the ratio of outstanding public debt to national output beyond the level of 50%. This paper seeks to examine the nexus between debt and growth in Fiji. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific Islands Forum, the regional organization comprising 14 Pacific Island countries (PICs), Australia and New Zealand is committed to strengthen regional cooperation and integration. This paper examines progress in real and financial integration in the region. Utilizing the methodology based on international parity conditions: purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity, the study concludes that while PICs’ integration amongst themselves and with Australia and New Zealand, is relatively advanced with respect to goods and services, the financial market integration remains incomplete. The policy implication is impact of further liberalization is likely to be substantial on financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the case for adopting the Australian dollar as a common currency among the island countries in the South Pacific. The proposal of a single currency was informally floated by Australia at the Pacific Forum Leaders Meeting in Auckland, in August 2003. The Pacific Forum consists of 14 developing island countries and the developed countries in the region, namely, Australia and New Zealand. In early 2003, a committee of the Australian Senate recommended adoption of a single currency as a possible remedy to meet the deteriorating economic situations in the Pacific island countries, arising out of poor fiscal discipline and failure to effectively use external aid inflows. Successful adoption of a single currency with either a new currency or an existing currency of a dominant partner in trade and development requires the fulfillment of various prerequirements, which are well known as optimum currency area conditions. The paper assesses the feasibility of the proposal in the light of these conditions and concludes that the time for adoption has not yet arrived. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heavy investment in irrigation in India has not brought the expected benefits and this article argues first that a major difficulty arises from the way irrigated water is administered. The distribution of water is controlled by irrigation engineers who lack the knowledge and information to manage water in a way that maximizes agricultural production and achieves the confidence of farmers. The staffing structure and related professional values discourage the development of a new more appropriate specialism. The article goes on to argue that a new organization of work and associated staffing structure is needed which will encourage a new professional specialization bringing together staff and expertise currently dispersed in separate specialisms in engineering, agronomy and other aspects of agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Irrigators’ participation in the project management of surface irrigation systems in the Indian context is influenced by many factors. Important among them are the irrigators’ confidence in the systems’ mode of delivery of water supplies and their self‐perceived ability to share responsibilities with the irrigation bureaucracy. A discriminant analysis of some select variables is undertaken and it is found that the model developed has a fairly high predictive value for decision‐makers with regard to formation of irrigators.’ organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Pacific island countries (PICs) have been among the world's top ten recipients of official development assistance (ODA) on a per capita basis. This paper seeks to examine the effectiveness of external aid by undertaking a panel data study covering five countries in the South Pacific, namely Fiji, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu utilizing the annual data over a twenty-five year period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]