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Objectives: Sex work sites have been hypothesised to be at the root of the observed heterogeneity in HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. We determined if proximity to sex work sites is associated with HIV prevalence among the general population in Zimbabwe, a country with one of the highest HIV prevalence in the world. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we use a unique combination of nationally representative geolocated individual-level data from 16,121 adults (age 15–49 years) from 400 sample locations and the locations of 55 sex work sites throughout Zimbabwe; covering an estimated 95% of all female sex workers (FSWs). We calculated the shortest distance by road from each survey sample location to the nearest sex work site, for all sites and by type of sex work site, and conducted univariate and multivariate multilevel logistic regressions to determine the association between distance to sex work sites and HIV seropositivity, controlling for age, sex, male circumcision status, number of lifetime sex partners, being a FSW client or being a stable partner of an FSW client. Results: We found no significant association between HIV seroprevalence and proximity to the nearest sex work site among the general population in Zimbabwe, regardless of which type of site is closest (city site adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.010 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.992–1.028]; economic growth point site aOR 0.982 [95% CI 0.962–1.002]; international site aOR 0.995 [95% CI 0.979–1.012]; seasonal site aOR 0.987 [95% CI 0.968–1.006] and transport site aOR 1.007 [95% CI 0.987–1.028]). Individual-level indicators of sex work were significantly associated with HIV seropositivity: being an FSW client (aOR 1.445 [95% CI 1.188–1.745]); nine or more partners versus having one to three lifetime partners (aOR 2.072 [95% CI 1.654–2.596]). Conclusions: Sex work sites do not seem to directly affect HIV prevalence among the general population in surrounding areas. Prevention and control interventions for HIV at these locations should primarily focus on sex workers and their clients, with special emphasis on including and retaining mobile sex workers and clients into services.

Summary Background The COVID-19 pandemic could lead to disruptions to provision of HIV services for people living with HIV and those at risk of acquiring HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, where UNAIDS estimated that more than two-thirds of the approximately 38 million people living with HIV resided in 2018. We aimed to predict the potential effects of such disruptions on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods In this modelling study, we used five well described models of HIV epidemics (Goals, Optima HIV, HIV Synthesis, an Imperial College London model, and Epidemiological MODeling software [EMOD]) to estimate the effect of various potential disruptions to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa lasting 6 months over 1 year from April 1, 2020. We considered scenarios in which disruptions affected 20%, 50%, and 100% of the population. Findings A 6-month interruption of supply of antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs across 50% of the population of people living with HIV who are on treatment would be expected to lead to a 1·63 times (median across models; range 1·39–1·87) increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period compared with no disruption. In sub-Saharan Africa, this increase amounts to a median excess of HIV deaths, across all model estimates, of 296 000 (range 229 023–420 000) if such a high level of disruption occurred. Interruption of ART would increase mother-to-child transmission of HIV by approximately 1·6 times. Although an interruption in the supply of ART drugs would have the largest impact of any potential disruptions, effects of poorer clinical care due to overstretched health facilities, interruptions of supply of other drugs such as co-trimoxazole, and suspension of HIV testing would all have a substantial effect on population-level mortality (up to a 1·06 times increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period due to disruptions affecting 50% of the population compared with no disruption). Interruption to condom supplies and peer education would make populations more susceptible to increases in HIV incidence, although physical distancing measures could lead to reductions in risky sexual behaviour (up to 1·19 times increase in new HIV infections over a 1-year period if 50% of people are affected). Interpretation During the COVID-19 pandemic, the primary priority for governments, donors, suppliers, and communities should focus on maintaining uninterrupted supply of ART drugs for people with HIV to avoid additional HIV-related deaths. The provision of other HIV prevention measures is also important to prevent any increase in HIV incidence. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

HIV modelling and economic analyses have had a prominent role in guiding programmatic responses to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We reflect critically how the HIV modelling field might develop in future. We argue for HIV modelling to be more routinely aligned with national government and ministry of health priorities, recognizing their legitimate mandates and stewardship responsibilities, for HIV and other wider health programmes. We also place importance on an environment existing in which collaboration between modellers, and joint approaches to addressing modelling questions, becomes the norm rather than exception. Such an environment can accelerate translation of modelling analyses into policy formulation because areas where models agree can be prioritized for action, whereas areas over which uncertainty prevails can be slated for additional study, data collection and analysis. We also argue the need for HIV modelling to increasingly be integrated with the modelling of health needs beyond HIV, particularly in allocative efficiency analyses, where focusing on one disease over another may lead to worse health overall. Such integration may also enhance partnership with national governments whose mandates extend beyond HIV and to all of health care. Finally, we see a need for there to be substantial and equitable investment in capacity strengthening within African countries, so that African researchers will increasingly be leading modelling exercises. Building a critical mass of expertise, strengthened through external collaboration and knowledge exchange, should be the ultimate goal.

Introduction\ud Despite improvements in prevention of mother‐to‐child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV outcomes, there remain unacceptably high numbers of mother‐to‐child transmissions (MTCT) of HIV. Programmes and research collect multiple sources of PMTCT data, yet this data is rarely integrated in a systematic way. We conducted a data integration exercise to evaluate the Zimbabwe national PMTCT programme and derive lessons for strengthening implementation and documentation.\ud \ud Methods\ud We used data from four sources: research, Ministry of Health and Child Care (MOHCC) programme, Implementer – Organization for Public Health Interventions and Development, and modelling. Research data came from serial population representative cross‐sectional surveys that evaluated the national PMTCT programme in 2012, 2014 and 2017/2018. MOHCC and Organization for Public Health Interventions and Development collected data with similar indicators for the period 2018 to 2019. Modelling data from 2017/18 UNAIDS Spectrum was used. We systematically integrated data from the different sources to explore PMTCT programme performance at each step of the cascade. We also conducted spatial analysis to identify hotspots of MTCT.\ud \ud Results\ud We developed cascades for HIV‐positive and negative‐mothers, and HIV exposed and infected infants to 24 months post‐partum. Most data were available on HIV positive mothers. Few data were available 6‐8 weeks post‐delivery for HIV exposed/infected infants and none were available post‐delivery for HIV‐negative mothers. The different data sources largely concurred. Antenatal care (ANC) registration was high, although women often presented late. There was variable implementation of PMTCT services, MTCT hotspots were identified. Factors positively associated with MTCT included delayed ANC registration and mobility (use of more than one health facility) during pregnancy/breastfeeding. There was reduced MTCT among women whose partners accompanied them to ANC, and infants receiving antiretroviral prophylaxis. Notably, the largest contribution to MTCT was from postnatal women who had previously tested negative (12/25 in survey data, 17.6% estimated by Spectrum modelling). Data integration enabled formulation of interventions to improve programmes.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud Data integration was feasible and identified gaps in programme implementation/documentation leading to corrective interventions. Incident infections among mothers are the largest contributors to MTCT: there is need to strengthen the prevention cascade among HIV‐negative women.

The HIV pandemic provides lessons for the response to the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: no vaccine is available for either and there are no licensed pharmaceuticals for COVID-19, just as there was not for HIV infection in the early years. Population behaviour will determine the pandemic trajectory of COVID-19,1 just as it did for HIV.