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Mineral dust, the most abundant atmospheric aerosol by mass, interacts with radiation directly and alters cloud properties indirectly. Many operational numerical weather prediction models account for aerosol direct effects by using climatological mean concentrations and neglect indirect effects. This simplification may lead to shortcomings in model forecasts during outbreaks of Saharan dust towards Europe, when climatological mean dust concentrations deviate strongly from actual concentrations. This study investigates errors in model analyses and short‐range forecasts during such events. We investigate a pronounced dust event in March 2021 using the pre‐operational ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic weather and climate model with Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ICON‐ART) with prognostic calculation of dust and the operational European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model, which deploys a dust climatology. We compare model analysis and forecast with measurements from satellite and in situ instruments. We find that inclusion of prognostic aerosol and direct radiative effects from dust improves forecasts of surface radiation during clear‐sky conditions. However, dust‐induced cirrus clouds are strongly underestimated, highlighting the importance of representing indirect effects adequately. These findings are corroborated by systematic quantification of forecast errors against satellite measurements. For this we construct an event catalogue with 49 dust days over Central Europe between January 2018 and March 2022. We classify model cells by simulated and observed cloudiness and simulated dustiness in the total atmospheric column. We find significant overestimations of brightness temperature for cases with dust compared with cases without dust. For surface shortwave radiation, we find median overestimations of 6.2% during cloudy conditions with dust optical depth greater than 0.1, however these are not significant compared with cloudy conditions without dust. Our findings show that the pre‐operational ICON‐ART and the operational IFS model still do not reproduce cloudiness adequately during events with Saharan dust over Central Europe. Missing implementations of prognostic dust, particularly of indirect effects on cloud formation, lead to significant underestimations of cloudiness and potentially overestimations of surface radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Light‐absorbing impurities such as mineral dust can play a major role in reducing the albedo of snow surfaces. Particularly in spring, deposited dust particles lead to increased snow melt and trigger further feedbacks at the land surface and in the atmosphere. Quantifying the extent of dust‐induced variations is difficult due to high variability in the spatial distribution of mineral dust and snow. We present an extension of a fully coupled atmospheric and land surface model system to address the impact of mineral dust on the snow albedo across Eurasia. We evaluated the short‐term effects of Saharan dust in a case study. To obtain robust results, we performed an ensemble simulation followed by statistical analysis. Mountainous regions showed a strong impact of dust deposition on snow depth. We found a mean significant reduction of −1.4 cm in the Caucasus Mountains after 1 week. However, areas with flat terrain near the snow line also showed strong effects despite lower dust concentrations. Here, the feedback to dust deposition was more pronounced as increase in surface temperature and air temperature. In the region surrounding the snow line, we found an average significant surface warming of 0.9 K after 1 week. This study shows that the impact of mineral dust deposition depends on several factors. Primarily, these are altitude, slope, snow depth, and snow cover fraction. Especially in complex terrain, it is therefore necessary to use fully coupled models to investigate the effects of mineral dust on snow pack and the atmosphere. Plain Language Summary: Dust particles such as Saharan dust can darken snow surfaces, leading to increased absorption of solar radiation. The result is earlier snow melt in the spring and a warming of the land surface. Predicting dust deposition and subsequent regional impacts is difficult because the distribution of snow and dust appears in complex patterns depending on the landscape. We extended an atmospheric and land surface model system to investigate the impact of Saharan dust particles across Eurasia during a Saharan dust transport event. We found that mountainous regions are particularly affected by the dust particles, leading to increased snowmelt. In addition, regions with thin and patchy snow cover show a strong response to the dust particles, mainly causing a warming of the land surface. We found that the effects of dust particles depend on different regional characteristics. Therefore, when investigating dust on snow, it is important to use model systems that represent both the atmospheric process and surface properties properly. Key Points: There are regional effects due to the high spatial variability in mineral dust and snow propertiesThin snow layers favor a rise in temperature, higher elevations mainly show accelerated snow meltWe found a significant impact on surface radiation, temperature and snow cover properties [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dusty cirrus clouds are extended optically thick cirrocumulus decks that occur during strong mineral dust events. So far they have been mostly documented over Europe associated with dust-infused baroclinic storms. Since today's numerical weather prediction models neither predict mineral dust distributions nor consider the interaction of dust with cloud microphysics, they cannot simulate this phenomenon. We postulate that the dusty cirrus forms through a mixing instability of moist clean air with drier dusty air. A corresponding sub-grid parameterization is suggested and tested in the ICON-ART model. Only 5 with help of this parameterization ICON-ART is able to simulate the formation of the dusty cirrus, which leads to substantial improvements in cloud cover and radiative fluxes compared to simulations without this parameterization. A statistical evaluation over six Saharan dust events with and without observed dusty cirrus shows robust improvements in cloud and radiation scores. The ability to simulate dusty cirrus formation removes the linear dependency on mineral dust aerosol optical depth from the bias of the radiative fluxes. This suggests that the formation of dusty cirrus clouds is the dominant aerosol-cloud-radiation 10 effect of mineral dust over Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimated geometric plume heights for the daytime eruptions of La Soufrière in April 2021 using visible red band geostationary side views and geostationary–polar orbiter stereo views. Most of the plumes either spread near the tropopause at 16–17 km altitude or penetrated the stratosphere at 18–20 km altitude. Overshooting tops reached heights of up to 23 km. These geometric heights were compared with radiometric heights corresponding to the coldest plume temperature, which usually represent ambiguous estimates within a wide range between a tropospheric and a stratospheric height match. The tropospheric lower bound of the radiometric height range always underestimated the geometric height by a couple of kilometers, even for smaller plumes. For plumes near or above the tropopause, the midpoint or the stratospheric upper bound of the radiometric height range was in reasonable agreement with the geometric heights. The geometric overshooting top height, however, was always above the radiometric height range. We also found that geometric plume heights can be estimated from infrared band side views too, albeit with increased uncertainty compared to the visible red band. This opens up the possibility of applying the side view method to nighttime eruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a companion paper (Horváth et al., 2021), we introduced a new technique to estimate volcanic eruption column height from extremely oblique near-limb geostationary views. The current paper demonstrates and validates the technique in a number of recent eruptions, ranging from ones with weak columnar plumes to subplinian events with massive umbrella clouds and overshooting tops that penetrate the stratosphere. Due to its purely geometric nature, the new method is shown to be unaffected by the limitations of the traditional brightness temperature method, such as height underestimation in subpixel and semitransparent plumes, ambiguous solutions near the tropopause temperature inversion, or the lack of solutions in undercooled plumes. The side view height estimates were in good agreement with plume heights derived from ground-based video and satellite stereo observations, suggesting they can be a useful complement to established techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A geometric technique is introduced to estimate the height of volcanic eruption columns using the generally discarded near-limb portion of geostationary imagery. Such oblique observations facilitate a height-by-angle estimation method by offering close-to-orthogonal side views of eruption columns protruding from the Earth ellipsoid. Coverage is restricted to daytime point estimates in the immediate vicinity of the vent, which nevertheless can provide complementary constraints on source conditions for the modeling of near-field plume evolution. The technique is best suited to strong eruption columns with minimal tilting in the radial direction. For weak eruptions with severely bent plumes or eruptions with expanded umbrella clouds the radial tilt/expansion has to be corrected for either visually or using ancillary wind profiles. Validation on a large set of mountain peaks indicates a typical height uncertainty of ± 500 m for near-vertical eruption columns, which compares favorably with the accuracy of the common temperature method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution and the properties of a Saharan dust plume were studied near the city of Karlsruhe in south-west Germany (8.4298 °E, 49.0953 °N) from April 7 to 9, 2018 combining a scanning lidar (90°, 30°), a vertically pointing lidar (90°), a sun photometer, and the transport model ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model - Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ICON-ART). The lidar measurements show that the dust particles had backscatter coefficients of 0.86 ± 0.14 Mm-1 sr -1, an extinction coefficient of 40 ± 0.8 Mm-1, a lidar ratio of 46 ± 5 sr, and a particle depolarization ratio of 0.33 ± 0.07. These values are in good agreement with those obtained in previous studies of Saharan dust plumes in Western Europe. Compared to the remote sensing measurements, the model simulation predicts the plume arrival time, its layer height, and structure very well but overestimates the backscatter coefficient. In this manuscript, we discuss the complementarity and advantages of the different measurement methods as well as model simulations to predict Saharan dust plumes. Main conclusions are that the ICON-ART model can predict the structure of Saharan dust plumes very well but overestimates the backscatter coefficients by a factor of 2.2 ± 0.16 at 355 nm and underestimates the aerosol optical depth (AOD) by a factor of 1.5 ± 0.11 at 340 nm for this Saharan dust plume event. Employing a scanning aerosol lidar allows determining backscatter coefficient, particle depolarization ratio and especially lidar ratio of Saharan dust both for daytime and nighttime independently. Combining lidar with sun photometer data allows constraining aerosol optical depth in different ways and determining column integrated lidar ratios. These comprehensive datasets allow for a better understanding of Saharan dust plumes in Western Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In June 2019, the Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands, emitted 0.4-1.8 x 109 kg of very fine ash and 1-2 x 109 kg of SO2 up to 14 km into the atmosphere. The eruption was characterized by several phases or puffs of different duration and eruption heights. Resolving such complex eruption dynamics is required for precise volcanic plume dispersion forecasts. To address this issue, we coupled the atmospheric model system ICON-ART (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic – Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) with the 1-D plume model FPlume to calculate the eruption source parameters (ESPs) online. The main inputs are the plume heights for the different eruption phases that are geometrically derived from satellite data. An empirical relationship is used to derive the amount of very fine ash (particles <32µm), which is relevant for long range transport in the atmosphere. On the first day after the onset of the eruption, the modeled ash loading agrees very well with the ash loading estimated from AHI (Advanced Himawari Imager) observations due to the resolution of the eruption phases and the online treatment of the ESPs. In later hours, aerosol dynamical processes (nucleation, condensation, coagulation) explain the loss of ash in the atmosphere in agreement with the observations. However, a direct comparison is partly hampered by water and ice clouds overlapping the ash cloud in the observations. We compared 6-hourly means of model and AHI data with respect to the structure, amplitude, and location (SAL-method) to further validate the simulated dispersion of SO² and ash. In the beginning, the structure and amplitude values differed largely because the dense ash cloud leads to an underestimation of the SO2 amount in the satellite data. On the second and third day, the SAL values are close to zero for all parameters indicating a very good agreement of model and observations. Furthermore, we found a separation of the ash and SO² plume after one day due to particle sedimentation, chemistry, and aerosol-radiation interaction. The results confirm that coupling the atmospheric model system and plume model enables detailed treatment of the plume dynamics (phases and ESPs) and leads to significant improvement of the ash and SO[sub 2] dispersion forecast. This approach can benefit the operational forecast of ash and SO2 especially in case of complex and non-continuous volcanic eruptions like the Raikoke 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correct and reliable forecast of volcanic plume dispersion is vital for aviation safety. This can only be achieved by representing all responsible physical and chemical processes (sources, sinks, and interactions) in the forecast models. The representation of the sources has been enhanced over the last decade, while the sinks and interactions have received less attention. In particular, aerosol dynamic processes and aerosol–radiation interaction are neglected so far. Here we address this gap by further developing the ICON-ART (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic – Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) global modeling system to account for these processes. We use this extended model for the simulation of volcanic aerosol dispersion after the Raikoke eruption in June 2019. Additionally, we validate the simulation results with measurements from AHI (Advanced Himawari Imager), CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization), and OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping and Profiling Suite-Limb Profiler). Our results show that around 50 % of very fine volcanic ash mass (particles with diameter d<30 µ m) is removed due to particle growth and aging. Furthermore, the maximum volcanic cloud top height rises more than 6 km over the course of 4 d after the eruption due to aerosol–radiation interaction. This is the first direct evidence that shows how cumulative effects of aerosol dynamics and aerosol–radiation interaction lead to a more precise forecast of very fine ash lifetime in volcanic clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correct and reliable forecast of volcanic plume dispersion is vital for aviation safety. This can only be achieved by representing all responsible physical and chemical processes (sources, sinks, and interactions) in the forecast models. The representation of the sources has been enhanced over the last decade, while the sinks and interactions have received less attention. In particular, aerosol dynamic processes and aerosol-radiation interaction are neglected so far. Here we address this gap by further developing the ICON-ART (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic - Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) global modelling system to account for these processes. We use this extended model for the simulation of volcanic aerosol dispersion after the Raikoke eruption in June 2019. Additionally, we validate the simulation results with measurements from AHI (Advanced Himawari Imager), CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization), and OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping and Profiling Suite - Limb Profiler). Our results show that around 50 % of very fine volcanic ash mass (particles with diameter d < 30 µm) is removed due to particle growth and aging. Furthermore, the maximum volcanic cloud top height rises more than 6 km over the course of 4 days after the eruption due to aerosol-radiation interaction. This is the first direct evidence that shows how cumulative effects of aerosol dynamics and aerosol-radiation interaction lead to a more precise forecast of very fine ash lifetime in volcanic clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aeolian dust, the most dominant atmospheric aerosol by mass, influences the weather and climate directly through absorbing and scattering the radiation. Particle size distribution (PSD) controls the magnitude of these impacts through modulating the dust residence time in the atmosphere and optical properties. Although the dust PSD varies during the atmospheric transport, current models usually neglect the effect of these variations on dust optical properties. This study investigates the impact of variable PSD on dust optical properties and radiative impacts using the next-generation atmospheric modeling system ICON-ART (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic with Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases). Two sets of numerical experiments are conducted assuming fixed and variable PSD. A parameterization is developed to account for the effect of variable PSD on dust optical properties in the model. This parameterization is then implemented in ICON-ART to simulate a period of 1 month on a global grid with 80 km horizontal resolution. Results show that the consideration of a variable PSD increases the dust AOD. However, the magnitude of the changes depends on the dominant size modes. Although the optical properties of the fine mode show the highest sensitivity to the variable PSD, the median diameter of this mode hardly changes during transport. Thus, the new parametrization does not have a significant impact on AOD where fine mode is dominant. In contrast, when coarse mode is prevailing, the increase of AOD is more pronounced. This makes the surface slightly warmer (+0.2 K) in the source regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]