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Climate change has considerably dominated science-policy dialogue, public debate, and subsequently environmental policies since the three “Rio Conventions” were born. This has led to practically independent courses of action of climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation actions, neglecting potential conflicts among outcomes and with missed opportunities for synergistic measures. Transformative governance principles have been proposed to overcome these limitations. Using a transformative governance lens, we use the case of the Norwegian "Climate Cure 2030" for the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector to, first, illustrate the mechanisms that have led to the choice of climate mitigation measures; second, to analyze the potential consequences of these measures on biodiversity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and, third, to evaluate alternative measures with potential positive outcomes for biodiversity and GHG emissions/removals. We point to some mechanisms that could support the implementation of these positive actions.

The current warming of the oceans has been shown to have detrimental effects for a number of species. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms may be hampered by the non-linearity and non-stationarity of the relationships between temperature and demography, and by the insufficient length of available time series. Most demographic time series are too short to study the effect of climate on wildlife in the classical sense of meteorological patterns over at least 30 years. Here we present a harvest time series of Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) that goes back as far as 1880. It originates in the world’s largest puffin colony, in southwest Iceland, which has recently experienced a strong decline. By estimating an annual chick production index for 128 years, we find prolonged periods of strong correlations between local sea surface temperature (SST) and chick production. The sign of decennial correlations switches three times during this period, where the phases of strong negative correlation between puffin productivity and SST correspond to the early 20th century Arctic warming period and to the most recent decades. Based on a shorter time series, one might have concluded that the correlation was uniformly negative or positive, or even absent. Most of the variation (72%) in chick production is explained by a model in which productivity peaks at an SST of 7.1 °C, clearly rejecting the assumption of a linear relationship. The SST at which the puffins’ production peaked has increased by 0.24 °C during the 20th century, although the increase in average SST during the same period has been more than three times faster. The best supported models indicate that the population’s decline is at least partially caused by the increasing SST around Iceland.

1. Due to globalisation, trade and transport, the spread of alien species is increasing dramatically. Some alien species become ecologically harmful by threatening native biota. This can lead to irreversible changes in local biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, and, ultimately, to biotic homogenisation. 2. We risk-assessed all alien plants, animals, fungi and algae, within certain delimitations, that are known to reproduce in Norway. Mainland Norway and the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard plus Jan Mayen were treated as separate assessment areas. Assessments followed the Generic Ecological Impact Assessment of Alien Species (GEIAA) protocol, which uses a fully quantitative set of criteria. 3. A total of 1519 species were risk-assessed, of which 1183 were species reproducing in mainland Norway. Among these, 9% were assessed to have a severe impact, 7% high impact, 7% potentially high impact, and 49% low impact, whereas 29% had no known impact. In Svalbard, 16 alien species were reproducing, one of which with a severe impact. 4. The impact assessments also covered 319 so-called door-knockers, i.e. species that are likely to establish in Norway within 50 years, and 12 regionally alien species. Of the door-knockers, 8% and 10% were assessed to have a severe and high impact, respectively. 5. The impact category of most species was driven by negative interactions with native species, transformation of threatened ecosystems, or genetic contamination. The proportion of alien species with high or severe impact varied significantly across the different pathways of introduction, taxonomic groups, time of introduction, and the environments colonised, but not across continents of origin. 6. Given the large number of alien species reproducing in Norway and the preponderance of species with low impact, it is neither realistic nor necessary to eradicate all of them. Our results can guide management authorities in two ways. First, the use of quantitative assessment criteria facilitates the prioritisation of management resources across species. Second, the background information collected for each species, such as introduction pathways, area of occupancy and ecosystems affected, helps designing appropriate management measures. 1. Globalisering, handel og transport fører til en dramatisk økning i spredningen av fremmede arter. Noen fremmede arter er skadelige og truer det stedegne naturmangfoldet. Lokalt kan dette medføre irreversible endringer i det lokale biologiske mangfoldet og økosystemenes funksjon; globalt en homogenisering av artssammensetningen. 2. Vi har gjennomført risikovurderinger av alle fremmede planter, dyr, sopper og alger som reproduserer i Norge og oppfyller visse avgrensninger. Svalbard og Jan Mayen ble behandla som et eget vurderingsområde, adskilt fra Fastlands‐Norge. Risikovurderingene ble gjort i tråd med GEIAA (Generic Ecological Impact Assessment of Alien Species), som benytter et rent kvantitativt kriteriesett. 3. Totalt ble 1519 arter risikovurdert, hvorav 1183 reproduserte i Fastlands‐Norge. Av disse ble 9 % vurdert til å utgjøre en svært høy risiko, 7 % en høy risiko, 7 % en potensielt høy risiko, 49 % en lav risiko og 29 % ingen kjent risiko. På Svalbard forekom 16 reproduserende fremmede arter, hvorav én med svært høy risiko. 4. Risikovurderingene omfatta også 319 såkalte dørstokkarter, dvs. fremmede arter som antas å kunne etablere seg i Norge innen 50 år, samt 12 regionalt fremmede arter. Blant dørstokkartene ble 8 % og 10 % vurdert til å utgjøre en svært høy respektive høy risiko. 5. For de fleste arter ble risikokategorien bestemt av artenes interaksjoner med stedegne arter, tilstandsendringer i trua naturtyper eller genetisk forurensning. Andelen av fremmede arter med høy eller svært høy risiko varierte signifikant på tvers av ulike introduksjonsveier, artsgrupper, tidspunkt for introduksjon og koloniserte naturtyper, men ikke på tvers av opphavsområder. 6. Gitt det store antallet av fremmede arter som reproduserer i Norge, og overvekten av arter som har lav risiko, er det verken realistisk eller nødvendig å utrydde alle. Resultatene våre kan hjelpe forvaltningsmyndighetene på to måter. For det første gjør bruken av kvantitative kriterier det lettere å prioritere ressurser på tvers av arter. For det andre kan passende forvaltningstiltak utarbeides på grunnlag av den innsamla bakgrunnsinformasjonen om artene, f.eks. deres spredningsveier, forekomstareal og berørte naturtyper. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use,distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.c 2020 The Authors. Ecological Solutions and Evidence published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society

This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Biological Invasions. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-019-02058-x. We present the results of an inventory and status assessment of alien species in Norway. The inventory covered all known multicellular neobiota, 2496 in total, 1039 of which were classified as naturalised. The latter constitute c. 3% of all species known to be stably reproducing in Norway. These figures are higher than expected from Norway’s latitude, which may be due a combination of climatic and historical factors, as well as sampling effort. Most of the naturalised neobiota were plants (71%),followed by animals (21%) and fungi (8%). The main habitat types colonised were open lowlands (79%), urban environments (52%) and woodlands (42%). The main areas of origin were Europe (67%), North America (15%) and Asia (13%). For most taxa, the rate of novel introductions seems to have been increasing during recent decades. Within Norway, the number of alien species recorded per county was negatively correlated with latitude and positively correlated with human population density. In the high-Arctic territories under Norwegian sovereignty, i.e. Svalbard and Jan Mayen, 104 alien species were recorded, of which 5 were naturalised.

The Generic Ecological Impact Assessment of Alien Species (GEIAA) is described. It comprises a set of criteria and an assessment procedure. The set of criteria consists of three criteria that quantify invasion potential, and six criteria that capture the ecological effects of alien species. The threshold values for all criteria are numerically defined, rendering the set of criteria fully quantitative. Genericity is ensured by using criteria that are applicable to all taxonomic groups and in all habitats. In being generic, quantitative, ecological and normatively neutral, the criteria were inspired by the international Red List criteria. Capturing both invasion potential and effect, GEIAA can be regarded as a full ecological impact assessment. The assessment procedure contains guidelines on documentation, the collection of background information, the handling of uncertainty, and quality assurance. GEIAA represents the second revision, and thus the third generation, of assessment methodology in Norway. It has recently been used to carry out more than 2500 impact assessments of alien species in Norway and Sweden. © The Author(s) 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

The ecological impact of alien species is a function of the area colonised. Impact assessments of alien species are thus incomplete unless they take the spatial component of invasion processes into account. This paper describes a measure, termed expansion speed, that quantifies the speed with which a species increases its spatial presence in an assessment area. It is based on the area of occupancy (AOO) and can be estimated from grid occupancies. Expansion speed is defined as the yearly increase in the radius of a coherent circle having the same area as the AOO, irrespective of whether the increase is due to natural dispersal or anthropogenic transport. Two methods for estimating expansion speed are presented: one that requires several years of spatio-temporal observation data and explicitly takes detection rates into account; and one that can be used under a situation with sparse data. Using simulations and real-world data from natural history collections, it is shown that the method provides a good fit to observational datasets. Expansion speed has several valuable properties. Being based on AOO, it is an intuitive measure; as it only requires occupancy data, it is comparatively easy to estimate; and because it is a quantitative and generic measure, it increases the testability and comparability of impact assessments of alien species. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10441-019-09366-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Colonial breeding is an evolutionary puzzle, as the benefits of breeding in high densities are still not fully explained. Although the dynamics of existing colonies are increasingly understood, few studies have addressed the initial formation of colonies, and empirical tests are rare. Using a high-resolution larval drift model, we here document that the distribution of seabird colonies along the Norwegian coast can be explained by variations in the availability and predictability of fish larvae. The modelled variability in concentration of fish larvae is, in turn, predicted by the topography of the continental shelf and coastline. The advection of fish larvae along the coast translates small-scale topographic characteristics into a macroecological pattern, viz. the spatial distribution of top-predator breeding sites. Our findings provide empirical corroboration of the hypothesis that seabird colonies are founded in locations that minimize travel distances between breeding and foraging locations, thereby enabling optimal foraging by central-place foragers., Seabirds breed in high density colonies, but the factors determining colony position aren't clear. Here, Sandvik et al. show that small-scale coastal topography is related to likely variation in fish larval abundance, which predicts the distribution of seabird colonies along the Norwegian coast.

In many seabird studies, single annual proxies of prey abundance have been used to explain variability in breeding performance, but much more important is probably the timing of prey availability relative to the breeding season when energy demand is at a maximum. Until now, intraseasonal variation in prey availability has been difficult to quantify in seabirds. Using a state-of-the-art ocean drift model of larval cod Gadus morhua, an important constituent of the diet of common guillemots Uria aalge in the southwestern Barents Sea, we were able to show clear, short-term correlations between food availability and measurements of the stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in parental guillemots over a 3-year period (2009–2011). The model allowed the extraction of abundance and size of cod larvae with very high spatial (4 km) and temporal resolutions (1 day) and showed that cod larvae from adjacent northern spawning grounds in Norway were always available near the guillemot breeding colony while those from more distant southerly spawning grounds were less frequent, but larger. The latter arrived in waves whose magnitude and timing, and thus overlap with the guillemot breeding season, varied between years. CORT levels in adult guillemots were lower in birds caught after a week with high frequencies of southern cod larvae. This pattern was restricted to the two years (2009 and 2010) in which southern larvae arrived before the end of the guillemot breeding season. Any such pattern was masked in 2011 by already exceptionally high numbers of cod larvae in the region throughout chick-rearing period. The findings suggest that CORT levels in breeding birds increase when the arrival of southern sizable larvae does not match the period of peak energy requirements during breeding. Common guillemot, CORT, food availability, seabird, Uria aalge © 2015 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

In migratory birds, environmental conditions in both breeding and non-breeding areas may affect adult survival rates and hence be significant drivers of demographic processes. In seabirds, poor knowledge of their true distribution outside the breeding season, however, has severely limited such studies. This study explored how annual adult survival rates of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla on Hornøya in the southern Barents Sea were related to temporal variation in prey densities and climatic parameters in their breeding and non-breeding areas. We used information on the kittiwakes’ spatiotemporal distribution in the non-breeding season gained from year-round light-based tracking devices (geolocators) and satellite transmitters, and kittiwake annual adult survival rates gained from a multistate capture-mark-recapture analysis of a 22 yr time series of colour-ringed kittiwakes. In the post-breeding period, kittiwakes concentrated in an area east of Svalbard, in the winter they stayed in the Grand Banks/Labrador Sea area, and in the pre-breeding period they returned to the Barents Sea. We identified 2 possible prey categories of importance for the survival of kittiwakes in these areas (sea butterflies Thecosomata in the Grand Banks/Labrador Sea area in winter and capelin Mallotus villosus in the Barents Sea in the pre-breeding season) that together explained 52% of the variation in adult survival rates. Our results may have important implications for the conservation of kittiwakes, which are declining globally, because other populations use the same areas. Since they are under the influence of major anthropogenic activities including fisheries, international shipping and the offshore oil and gas industry, both areas should be targeted for future management plans. Black-legged kittiwake · Pteropods · Capelin · Capture-mark-recapture analyses · Non-breeding distribution

In long-lived species, any negative effect of pollution on adult survival may pose serious hazards to breeding populations. In this study, we measured concentrations of various organochlorines (OCs) (polychlorinated biphenyl and OC pesticides) in the blood of a large number of adult glaucous gulls ( Larus hyperboreus ) breeding on Bjørnøya (Bear Island) in the Norwegian Arctic, and modelled their local survival using capture–recapture analysis. Survival was negatively associated with concentrations of OCs in the blood. The effect of OCs was nonlinear and evident only among birds with the highest concentrations (the uppermost deciles of contamination). The threshold for depressed survival differed between the sexes, with females being more sensitive to contamination. For birds with lower OC concentration, survival was very high, i.e. at the upper range of survival rates reported from glaucous and other large gull species in other, presumably less contaminated populations. We propose two non-exclusive explanations. First, at some threshold of OC concentration, parents (especially males) may abandon reproduction to maximize their own survival. Second, high contamination of OC may eliminate the most sensitive individuals from the population (especially among females), inducing a strong selection towards high-quality and less sensitive phenotypes.

A major challenge in population ecology is the prediction of population responses to environmental variance. Food availability has long been hypothesized to play a major role in regulating seabird populations. In general, seabirds feed on small pelagic fish and/or young age classes of larger predatory fish. Here we used a logistic population model to predict the temporal variation in the population size of common guillemots Uria aalge in a colony in NE Norway (Hornøya) between 1987 and 2011 in relation to the variation in abundance (acoustic and trawl surveys) of important fish prey species in the Barents Sea. The fish species considered, all of which have been described in the diet of common guillemot chicks and adults on Hornøya, were capelin Mallotus villosus (all age classes), 1-group herring Clupea harengus and 0-group cod Gadus morhua. The guillemot population collapsed by more than 80% during the winter 1986/1987, when the abundance indices of all fish prey species were very low, but has since steadily increased. The annual variation in population growth rate after the population collapse could best be explained by the variation in abundance of 0-group cod (unlagged), and the 0-group cod and capelin 6 and 4 yr earlier, respectively (equalling the age of maturation of guillemots). We also present a numerical ocean model to identify mechanisms affecting spatio-temporal prey availability of 0-group cod around the colony during the breeding season. These results undermine earlier focus on the capelin stock as the main cause of the population crash in common guillemots. 2018-02-14

Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

Tree thinking is an integral part of modern evolutionary biology, and a necessary precondition for phylogenetics and comparative analyses. Tree thinking has during the 20th century largely replaced group thinking, developmental thinking and anthropocentricism in biology. Unfortunately, however, this does not imply that tree thinking can be taken for granted. The findings reported here indicate that tree thinking is very much an acquired ability which needs extensive training. I tested a sample of undergraduate and graduate students of biology by means of questionnaires. Not a single student was able to correctly interpret a simple tree drawing. Several other findings demonstrate that tree thinking is virtually absent in students unless they are explicitly taught how to read evolutionary trees. Possible causes and implications of this mental bias are discussed. It seems that biological textbooks can be an important source of confusion for students. While group and developmental thinking have disappeared from most textual representations of evolution, they have survived in the evolutionary tree drawings of many textbooks. It is quite common for students to encounter anthropocentric trees and even trees containing stem groups and paraphyla. While these biases originate from the unconscious philosophical assumptions made by authors, the findings suggest that presenting unbiased evolutionary trees in biological publications is not merely a philosophical virtue but has also clear practical implications. (C) The Author(s) 2008. Open access articles under the liberal Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY) license. The CC BY license permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

Both written and graphic accounts of history can be biased by the perspective of the historian. O’Hara (Biol Philos 7:135–160, 1992) has demonstrated that this also applies to evolutionary history and its historians, and identified four narrative devices that introduce anthropocentricisms into accounts of phylogeny. In the current paper, I identify a fifth such narrative device, viz. the left–right ordering of the taxa at the tips of cladograms. I define two measures that make it possible to quantify the degree of anthropocentricism of cladograms, the human attention score and human rightness score. I then carry out an analysis of the presence of the different distorting mechanisms in phylogenetic textbooks. I deliberately chose two textbooks that adopted a cladistic perspective, since their authors can be assumed to be more conscious about the aim of avoiding anthropocentricisms. Three of the narrative devices are thus absent from cladistic works. However, there is a weak tendency that the resolution of cladogram branches is biased in favour of Homo sapiens. Furthermore, the human perspective is clear and highly significant in the positioning of taxa along the left–right axis of cladograms. I discuss the reasons for and implications of these biased presentations.