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Although dispersal is generally viewed as a crucial determinant for the fitness of any organism, our understanding of its role in the persistence and spread of plant populations remains incomplete. Generalizing and predicting dispersal processes are challenging due to context dependence of seed dispersal, environmental heterogeneity and interdependent processes occurring over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Current population models often use simple phenomenological descriptions of dispersal processes, limiting their ability to examine the role of population persistence and spread, especially under global change. To move seed dispersal ecology forward, we need to evaluate the impact of any single seed dispersal event within the full spatial and temporal context of a plant’s life history and environmental variability that ultimately influences a population’s ability to persist and spread. In this perspective, we provide guidance on integrating empirical and theoretical approaches that account for the context dependency of seed dispersal to improve our ability to generalize and predict the consequences of dispersal, and its anthropogenic alteration, across systems. We synthesize suitable theoretical frameworks for this work and discuss concepts, approaches and available data from diverse subdisciplines to help operationalize concepts, highlight recent breakthroughs across research areas and discuss ongoing challenges and open questions. We address knowledge gaps in the movement ecology of seeds and the integration of dispersal and demography that could benefit from such a synthesis. With an interdisciplinary perspective, we will be able to better understand how global change will impact seed dispersal processes, and potential cascading effects on plant population persistence, spread and biodiversity., Although dispersal is generally viewed as a crucial determinant for the fitness of any organism, our understanding of its role in the persistence and spread of plant populations remains incomplete. In this perspective, we provide guidance on integrating empirical and theoretical approaches that account for the context dependency of seed dispersal to improve our ability to generalize and predict the consequences of dispersal, and its anthropogenic alteration, across systems. With an interdisciplinary perspective, we will be able to better understand how global change will impact seed dispersal processes, and potential cascading effects on plant population persistence, spread and biodiversity.

Bird exclusion experiments consistently show that birds exhibit strong top-down control of arthropods, including ants and the honeydew-producing insects (HPIs) that they tend. However, it remains unclear whether the results of these small-scale bird exclosure experiments can be extrapolated to larger spatial scales. In this study, we use a natural bird removal experiment to compare the prevalence of ants and HPIs between Guam, an island whose bird community has been extirpated since the 1980s due to the introduction of the brown tree snake, and two nearby islands (Rota and Saipan) that have more intact bird assemblages. Consistent with smaller-scale bird exclosure experiments, we show that (1) forest trees from Guam are significantly more likely to host HPIs than trees from Saipan and (2) ants are nearly four times as abundant on Guam than on both Saipan and Rota. The prevalence of HPIs varied slightly based on tree species identity, although these effects were not as strong as island-level effects associated with bird loss. Ant community composition differed between Guam and the other two islands. These results corroborate past observational studies showing increased spider densities on Guam and suggest that trophic changes associated with landscape-level bird extirpation may also involve alterations in the abundance of ants and HPIs. This study also provides a clear example of the strong indirect effects that invasive species can have on natural food webs. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00442-018-4273-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Invasive vertebrate predators are directly responsible for the extinction or decline of many vertebrate species, but their indirect impacts often go unmeasured, potentially leading to an underestimation of their full impact. When invasives extirpate functionally important mutualists, dependent species are likely to be affected as well. Here, we show that the invasive brown treesnake, directly responsible for the extirpation of forest birds from the island of Guam, is also indirectly responsible for a severe decline in plant recruitment as a result of disrupting the fruit-frugivore mutualism. To assess the impact of frugivore loss on plants, we compare seed dispersal and recruitment of two fleshy-fruited tree species on Guam and three nearby islands with intact disperser communities. We conservatively estimate that the loss of frugivorous birds caused by the brown treesnake may have caused a 61–92% decline in seedling recruitment. This case study highlights the potential for predator invasions to cause indirect, pervasive and easily overlooked interaction cascades., Invasive brown treesnakes decimated the forest bird community on the island of Guam. Now, Rogers and colleagues document the indirect effects of the snake on trees, linking snake-initiated bird loss to reduced seed dispersal and plant recruitment on Guam compared to nearby uninvaded islands.

Seed dispersal enables plants to reach hospitable germination sites and escape natural enemies. Understanding when and how much seed dispersal matters to plant fitness is critical for understanding plant population and community dynamics. At the same time, the complexity of factors that determine if a seed will be successfully dispersed and subsequently develop into a reproductive plant is daunting. Quantifying all factors that may influence seed dispersal effectiveness for any potential seed-vector relationship would require an unrealistically large amount of time, materials and financial resources. On the other hand, being able to make dispersal predictions is critical for predicting whether single species and entire ecosystems will be resilient to global change. Building on current frameworks, we here posit that seed dispersal ecology should adopt plant functional groups as analytical units to reduce this complexity to manageable levels. Functional groups can be used to distinguish, for their constituent species, whether it matters (i) if seeds are dispersed, (ii) into what context they are dispersed and (iii) what vectors disperse them. To avoid overgeneralization, we propose that the utility of these functional groups may be assessed by generating predictions based on the groups and then testing those predictions against species-specific data. We suggest that data collection and analysis can then be guided by robust functional group definitions. Generalizing across similar species in this way could help us to better understand the population and community dynamics of plants and tackle the complexity of seed dispersal as well as its disruption., Seed dispersal is critical to plant fitness and plant community dynamics. However, measuring and tracking all factors that influence seed dispersal effectiveness for any potential seed-disperser relationship would require an unrealistically large amount of time, materials and financial resources. Building on current frameworks, we suggest that seed dispersal ecology quantify seed dispersal at the scale of plant functional groups, in order to reduce complexity to manageable levels. Based on functional group classifications, plant species can be distinguished by their level of dependence on seed dispersal and its mechanisms.

In healthy forests, vertebrate frugivores move seeds from intact to degraded forests, aiding in the passive regeneration of degraded forests. Yet vertebrate frugivores are declining around the world, and little is known about the impact of this loss on regeneration of degraded areas. Here, we use a unique natural experiment to assess how complete vertebrate frugivore loss affects native seed rain in degraded forest. All native vertebrate frugivores (which were primarily avian frugivores) have been functionally extirpated from the island of Guam by the invasive brown tree snake (Boiga irregularis), whereas the nearby island of Saipan has a relatively intact vertebrate frugivore community. We captured seed rain along transects extending from intact into degraded forest and compared the species richness, density and condition of the seed rain from native bird-dispersed tree species between the two islands. Considering seeds from native bird-dispersed species, approximately 1.66 seeds landed per 26 days in each square meter of degraded forest on Saipan, whereas zero seeds landed per 26 days per square meter in degraded forest on Guam. Additionally, on Saipan, 69% of native bird-dispersed seeds in intact forest and 77% of seeds in degraded forest lacked fleshy fruit pulp, suggesting ingestion by birds, compared to 0% of all seeds on Guam. Our results show an absence of seed rain in degraded forests on Guam, correlated with the absence of birds, whereas on Saipan, frugivorous birds regularly disperse seeds into degraded forests, providing a mechanism for re-colonization by native plants. These results suggest that loss of frugivores will slow regeneration of degraded forests on Guam.

There were errors in Figure 1 and Figure 3. The correct Figure 1 can be viewed here: . The correct Figure 3 can be viewed here: In the Materials and Methods section, under the heading Insectivorous birds, the scientific name for the Mariana Swiftlet is listed incorrectly twice in the following sentences: Only two of the 10 native insectivorous forest bird species remain on Guam: the Micronesian Starling (Aplonis opaca), and the Marianas Swiftlet (Acrocephalus luscinia). Aplonis opaca has a localized remnant population of less than 400 birds (D. Vice, J. Quitagua and L. Obra, pers.comm.) covering an area of less than 50 km2, and Acrocephalus luscinia has remnant populations numbering around 1100 in three caves in Southern Guam(A. Brooke, pers.comm.) The correct name is Aerodramus bartschi

The combination of small-scale manipulative experiments and large-scale natural experiments provides a powerful approach for demonstrating the importance of top-down trophic control on the ecosystem scale. The most compelling natural experiments have come from studies examining the landscape-scale loss of apex predators like sea otters, wolves, fish and land crabs. Birds are dominant apex predators in terrestrial systems around the world, yet all studies on their role as predators have come from small-scale experiments; the top-down impact of bird loss on their arthropod prey has yet to be examined at a landscape scale. Here, we use a unique natural experiment, the extirpation of insectivorous birds from nearly all forests on the island of Guam by the invasive brown tree snake, to produce the first assessment of the impacts of bird loss on their prey. We focused on spiders because experimental studies showed a consistent top-down effect of birds on spiders. We conducted spider web surveys in native forest on Guam and three nearby islands with healthy bird populations. Spider web densities on the island of Guam were 40 times greater than densities on islands with birds during the wet season, and 2.3 times greater during the dry season. These results confirm the general trend from manipulative experiments conducted in other systems however, the effect size was much greater in this natural experiment than in most manipulative experiments. In addition, bird loss appears to have removed the seasonality of spider webs and led to larger webs in at least one spider species in the forests of Guam than on nearby islands with birds. We discuss several possible mechanisms for the observed changes. Overall, our results suggest that effect sizes from smaller-scale experimental studies may significantly underestimate the impact of bird loss on spider density as demonstrated by this large-scale natural experiment.