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The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk ( www.efehr.org ).

Pattern informatics (PI) algorithm, which was introduced at the beginning of past decade, uses instrumental earthquake catalogs to investigate the time-dependent rate of seismicity in the study area and, based on the information from past events, calculates the probabilities for the occurrence of future large earthquakes. The main measure in this method is the number of events above a specified magnitude threshold M c that is counted over a gridded area. PI has been applied in several regions of the world and different variants of the method have been developed over the past decade. Hence, the problem of formally evaluating and comparing the performances of the different PI variants needs to be addressed from an operational perspective, in order to identify the preferred application scheme and as well as to improve the performances of the method. In this study, PI is applied for the first time to the retrospective analysis of the earthquake catalogs of Iran and Italy, so as to check whether this method could forecast the past large events in these two regions with different level of data completeness and complex seismotectonic setting. The original PI algorithm and one of its modified variants, as well as the relative intensity (RI) model, are used to check the stability and statistical significance of the obtained results. In order to assess and compare the obtained results, the performances of the different PI variants are analyzed considering different evaluation strategies, which turn out to provide significantly different scores even for the same algorithm variant. We show that a critical point in the assessment of the obtained results is related with the definition and quantification of the space uncertainty of the issued forecasts, that is, with the extent of the territory where large earthquakes are to be expected. Accordingly, we emphasize the need for an appropriate definition of the evaluation strategies, clearly and unambiguously indicating the area where a large earthquake has to be expected. The study shows that, with respect to application in Iran and Italy, the performances of PI algorithm (both original and modified variants) are highly dependent on the selected evaluation strategy and do not provide better information than the simple RI model, which does not account for temporal properties of seismicity evolution. The overall performances can be improved by introducing specific thresholds that discard the less active cells; however, being based on some posterior optimization, a rigorous prospective testing is required to assess the forecasting capability of the method. In this paper, we aim to set up the rules for such testing, including advance definition of the evaluation strategy.

We conducted a tomographic inversion of Rayleigh-wave dispersion to obtain 2D phase and group velocity tomographic images in the 10-100 s period range and shear-wave velocity structures for the Iranian plateau. For this purpose, the fun- damental mode of Rayleigh waves, recorded along 1586 paths by 29 broadband sta- tions, was identified by applying the frequency time analysis (FTAN) to each epicenter-station path which simultaneously satisfies the two-station method condi- tions. The fundamental modes identified by FTAN have been used to determine the path-average interstation phase and group velocities at selected periods. With this pro- cedure, 243 group and phase velocity dispersion curves were processed to obtain to- mographic maps by applying the Yanovskaya-Ditmar formulation for periods in the 10-100 s range. Averaged dispersion curves of phase and group velocities, which represent six rather homogeneous regions, are computed. Finally, we used a fully non- linear inversion procedure to derive tomographic images of the elastic structure of the lithosphere and asthenosphere of the six main structural and seismotectonic features of the Iranian plateau. The dense path coverage in the Iranian plateau permits us to pro- duce images that have substantially higher lateral resolution compared to images cur- rently available from global and regional group velocity studies. Tomographic maps at high frequencies are well correlated with the upper crust structure, especially with sediment layers thickness. Estimated shear-wave velocity structures are well corre- lated with the shield-like lithosphere structure in Zagros. A low-velocity zone (LVZ) is not detected in Alborz or the south Caspian basin, which can imply thrusting of the oceanic crust of the southern Caspian Sea under the Alborz to the south. LVZs are derived for the region east of Iran, central Iran, and Kopeh Dagh.

Ground motion prediction equations are essential for several purposes ranging from seismic design and analysis to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In seismically active regions without sufficiently strong ground motion data to build empirical models, hybrid models become vital. Georgia does not have sufficiently strong ground motion data to build empirical models. In this study, we have applied the host-totarget method in two regions in Georgia with different source mechanisms. According to the tectonic regime of the target areas, two different regions are chosen as host regions. One of them is in Turkey with the dominant strike-slip source mechanism, while the other is in Iran with the prevalence of reverse-mechanism events. We performed stochastic finite-fault simulations in both host and target areas and employed the hybrid-empirical method as introduced in Campbell (2003). An initial set of hybrid empirical ground motion estimates is obtained for PGA and SA at selected periods for Georgia.