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Predicting all-cause mortality risk is challenging and requires extensive medical data. Recently, large-scale proteomics datasets have proven useful for predicting health-related outcomes. Here, we use measurements of levels of 4,684 plasma proteins in 22,913 Icelanders to develop all-cause mortality predictors both for short- and long-term risk. The participants were 18-101 years old with a mean follow up of 13.7 (sd. 4.7) years. During the study period, 7,061 participants died. Our proposed predictor outperformed, in survival prediction, a predictor based on conventional mortality risk factors. We could identify the 5% at highest risk in a group of 60-80 years old, where 88% died within ten years and 5% at the lowest risk where only 1% died. Furthermore, the predicted risk of death correlates with measures of frailty in an independent dataset. Our results show that the plasma proteome can be used to assess general health and estimate the risk of death., Eiriksdottir et al. use a temporal proteomic dataset from over 22,000 Icelandic individuals to identify predictors and predict all-cause mortality. Their findings suggest that the plasma proteome may be of value in general health screening for risk of death.

Objectives: The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on several factors, both biological and behavioural. The effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions can be attributed largely to changes in human behaviour, but quantifying this effect remains challenging. Reconstructing the transmission tree of the third wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland using contact tracing and viral sequence data from 2522 cases enables us to directly compare the infectiousness of distinct groups of persons. Methods: The transmission tree enables us to model the effect that a given population prevalence of vaccination would have had on the third wave had one of three different vaccination strategies been implemented before that time. This allows us to compare the effectiveness of the strategies in terms of minimizing the number of cases, deaths, critical cases, and severe cases. Results: We found that people diagnosed outside of quarantine (Ȓ = 1.31) were 89% more infectious than those diagnosed while in quarantine (Ȓ = 0.70) and that infectiousness decreased as a function of time spent in quarantine before diagnosis, with people diagnosed outside of quarantine being 144% more infectious than those diagnosed after ≥3 days in quarantine (Ȓ = 0.54). People of working age, 16 to 66 years (Ȓ = 1.08), were 46% more infectious than those outside of that age range (Ȓ = 0.74). Discussion: We found that vaccinating the population in order of ascending age or uniformly at random would have prevented more infections per vaccination than vaccinating in order of descending age, without significantly affecting the expected number of deaths, critical cases, or severe cases.

Publisher's version (útgefin grein), Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases affecting both children and adults. We report a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 69,189 cases and 702,199 controls from Iceland and UK biobank. We find 88 asthma risk variants at 56 loci, 19 previously unreported, and evaluate their effect on other asthma and allergic phenotypes. Of special interest are two low frequency variants associated with protection against asthma; a missense variant in TNFRSF8 and 3‘ UTR variant in TGFBR1. Functional studies show that the TNFRSF8 variant reduces TNFRSF8 expression both on cell surface and in soluble form, acting as loss of function. eQTL analysis suggests that the TGFBR1 variant acts through gain of function and together with an intronic variant in a downstream gene, SMAD3, points to defective TGFβR1 signaling as one of the biological perturbations increasing asthma risk. Our results increase the number of asthma variants and implicate genes with known role in T cell regulation, inflammation and airway remodeling in asthma pathogenesis., We thank the individuals who participated in this study and the staff at the Icelandic Patient Recruitment Center and the deCODE genetics core facilities. Further to all our colleagues who contributed to the data collection and phenotypic characterization of clinical samples as well as to the genotyping and analysis of the whole-genome association data. This research has been conducted using the UK biobank Resource under Application Number ‘24711’.

Objectives To find causal genes for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and its seropositive (RF and/or ACPA positive) and seronegative subsets. Methods We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 31 313 RA cases (68% seropositive) and similar to 1 million controls from Northwestern Europe. We searched for causal genes outside the HLA-locus through effect on coding, mRNA expression in several tissues and/or levels of plasma proteins (SomaScan) and did network analysis (Qiagen). Results We found 25 sequence variants for RA overall, 33 for seropositive and 2 for seronegative RA, altogether 37 sequence variants at 34 non-HLA loci, of which 15 are novel. Genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic analysis of these yielded 25 causal genes in seropositive RA and additional two overall. Most encode proteins in the network of interferon-alpha/beta and IL-12/23 that signal through the JAK/STAT-pathway. Highlighting those with largest effect on seropositive RA, a rare missense variant in STAT4 (rs140675301-A) that is independent of reported non-coding STAT4-variants, increases the risk of seropositive RA 2.27-fold (p=2.1x10(-9)), more than the rs2476601-A missense variant in PTPN22 (OR=1.59, p=1.3x10(-160)). STAT4 rs140675301-A replaces hydrophilic glutamic acid with hydrophobic valine (Glu128Val) in a conserved, surface-exposed loop. A stop-mutation (rs76428106-C) in FLT3 increases seropositive RA risk (OR=1.35, p=6.6x10(-11)). Independent missense variants in TYK2 (rs34536443-C, rs12720356-C, rs35018800-A, latter two novel) associate with decreased risk of seropositive RA (ORs=0.63-0.87, p=10(-9)-10(-27)) and decreased plasma levels of interferon-alpha/beta receptor 1 that signals through TYK2/JAK1/STAT4. Conclusion Sequence variants pointing to causal genes in the JAK/STAT pathway have largest effect on seropositive RA, while associations with seronegative RA remain scarce. Funding Agencies|NORDFORSK [90825]; Swedish Research Council [2018-02803]; Swedish innovation Agency (Vinnova); Innovationsfonden; The Research Council of Norway; Region Stockholm-Karolinska Institutet; Region Vasterbotten (ALF); Danish Rheumatism Association [R194-A6956, A1923, A3037, A3570]; Swedish Brain Foundation; Nils and Bibbi Jensens Foundation; Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation; Margaretha af Ugglas Foundation; South-Eastern Heath Region of Norway; Health Research Fund of Central Denmark Region; Region of Southern Denmark; A.P. Moller Foundation for the Advancement of Medical Science; Colitis-Crohn Foreningen; Novo Nordisk Foundation [NNF15OC0016932]; Aase og Ejnar Danielsens Fond; Beckett-Fonden; Augustinus Fonden; Knud and Edith Eriksens Mindefond; Laege Sofus Carl Emil Friis and Hustru Olga Doris Friis Legat; Psoriasis Forskningsfonden; University of Aarhus; Region of Southern Denmarks PhD Fund [12/7725]; Department of Rheumatology, Frederiksberg Hospital; Research Council of Norway [229624, 223273]; South East and Western Norway Health Authorities; ERC AdG project SELECTionPREDISPOSED; Stiftelsen Kristian Gerhard Jebsen; Trond Mohn Foundation; Novo Nordisk Foundation; University of Bergen

A pressing concern in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and other viral outbreaks, is the extent to which the containment measures are halting the viral spread. A straightforward way to assess this is to tally the active cases and the recovered ones throughout the epidemic. Here, we show how epidemic control can be assessed with molecular information during a well characterized epidemic in Iceland. We demonstrate how the viral concentration decreased in those newly diagnosed as the epidemic transitioned from exponential growth phase to containment phase. The viral concentration in the cases identified in population screening decreased faster than in those symptomatic and considered at high risk and that were targeted by the healthcare system. The viral concentration persists in recovering individuals as we found that half of the cases are still positive after two weeks. We demonstrate that accumulation of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome can be exploited to track the rate of new viral generations throughout the different phases of the epidemic, where the accumulation of mutations decreases as the transmission rate decreases in the containment phase. Overall, the molecular signatures of SARS-CoV-2 infections contain valuable epidemiological information that can be used to assess the effectiveness of containment measures., The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 changes during an individual’s infection, and mutations accumulate as viruses are transmitted between people. Here, the authors use data from Iceland to demonstrate how this information can be exploited at the population-level to determine the phase of the epidemic.

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)., Bone area is one measure of bone size that is easily derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. In a GWA study of DXA bone area of the hip and lumbar spine (N ≥ 28,954), we find thirteen independent association signals at twelve loci that replicate in samples of European and East Asian descent (N = 13,608 – 21,277). Eight DXA area loci associate with osteoarthritis, including rs143384 in GDF5 and a missense variant in COL11A1 (rs3753841). The strongest DXA area association is with rs11614913[T] in the microRNA MIR196A2 gene that associates with lumbar spine area (P = 2.3 × 10−42, β = −0.090) and confers risk of hip fracture (P = 1.0 × 10−8, OR = 1.11). We demonstrate that the risk allele is less efficient in repressing miR-196a-5p target genes. We also show that the DXA area measure contributes to the risk of hip fracture independent of bone density., We thank all the study subjects for their valuable participation, the staff from all studies and the participating physicians. A part of this research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under Application Number 23359. arcOGEN (http://www.arcogen.org.uk/) was funded by a special purpose grant from Arthritis Research UK (grant 18030).

Aims The aim of this study was to use human genetics to investigate the pathogenesis of sick sinus syndrome (SSS) and the role of risk factors in its development. Methods and results We performed a genome-wide association study of 6469 SSS cases and 1 000 187 controls from deCODE genetics, the Copenhagen Hospital Biobank, UK Biobank, and the HUNT study. Variants at six loci associated with SSS, a reported missense variant in MYH6, known atrial fibrillation (AF)/electrocardiogram variants at PITX2, ZFHX3, TTN/CCDC141, and SCN10A and a low-frequency (MAF = 1.1–1.8%) missense variant, p.Gly62Cys in KRT8 encoding the intermediate filament protein keratin 8. A full genotypic model best described the p.Gly62Cys association (P = 1.6 × 10−20), with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.44 for heterozygotes and a disproportionally large OR of 13.99 for homozygotes. All the SSS variants increased the risk of pacemaker implantation. Their association with AF varied and p.Gly62Cys was the only variant not associating with any other arrhythmia or cardiovascular disease. We tested 17 exposure phenotypes in polygenic score (PGS) and Mendelian randomization analyses. Only two associated with the risk of SSS in Mendelian randomization, AF, and lower heart rate, suggesting causality. Powerful PGS analyses provided convincing evidence against causal associations for body mass index, cholesterol, triglycerides, and type 2 diabetes (P > 0.05). Conclusion We report the associations of variants at six loci with SSS, including a missense variant in KRT8 that confers high risk in homozygotes and points to a mechanism specific to SSS development. Mendelian randomization supports a causal role for AF in the development of SSS., Graphical Abstract Summary of genetic insight into the pathogenesis of SSS and the role of risk factors in its development. Variants at six loci (named by corresponding gene names) were identified through GWAS and their unique phenotypic associations provide insight into distinct pathways underlying SSS. Investigation of the role of risk factors in SSS development supported a causal role for AF and heart rate and provided convincing evidence against causality for BMI, cholesterol (HDL and non-HDL), triglycerides and T2D. Mendelian randomization did not support causality for CAD, ischaemic stroke, heart failure, PR interval or QRS duration (not shown in figure). Red and blue arrows represent positive and negative associations, respectively.

Background Little is known about the nature and durability of the humoral immune response to infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Methods We measured antibodies in serum samples from 30,576 persons in Iceland, using six assays (including two pan-immunoglobulin [pan-Ig] assays), and we determined that the appropriate measure of seropositivity was a positive result with both pan-Ig assays. We tested 2102 samples collected from 1237 persons up to 4 months after diagnosis by a quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR) assay. We measured antibodies in 4222 quarantined persons who had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and in 23,452 persons not known to have been exposed. Results Of the 1797 persons who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1107 of the 1215 who were tested (91.1%) were seropositive; antiviral antibody titers assayed by two pan-Ig assays increased during 2 months after diagnosis by qPCR and remained on a plateau for the remainder of the study. Of quarantined persons, 2.3% were seropositive; of those with unknown exposure, 0.3% were positive. We estimate that 0.9% of Icelanders were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and that the infection was fatal in 0.3%. We also estimate that 56% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland had been diagnosed with qPCR, 14% had occurred in quarantined persons who had not been tested with qPCR (or who had not received a positive result, if tested), and 30% had occurred in persons outside quarantine and not tested with qPCR. Conclusions Our results indicate that antiviral antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not decline within 4 months after diagnosis. We estimate that the risk of death from infection was 0.3% and that 44% of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland were not diagnosed by qPCR.

Publisher's version (útgefin grein), Hemoglobin is the essential oxygen-carrying molecule in humans and is regulated by cellular iron and oxygen sensing mechanisms. To search for novel variants associated with hemoglobin concentration, we performed genome-wide association studies of hemoglobin concentration using a combined set of 684,122 individuals from Iceland and the UK. Notably, we found seven novel variants, six rare coding and one common, at the ACO1 locus associating with either decreased or increased hemoglobin concentration. Of these variants, the missense Cys506Ser and the stop-gained Lys334Ter mutations are specific to eight and ten generation pedigrees, respectively, and have the two largest effects in the study (EffectCys506Ser = −1.61 SD, CI95 = [−1.98, −1.35]; EffectLys334Ter = 0.63 SD, CI95 = [0.36, 0.91]). We also find Cys506Ser to associate with increased risk of persistent anemia (OR = 17.1, P = 2 × 10−14). The strong bidirectional effects seen in this study implicate ACO1, a known iron sensing molecule, as a major homeostatic regulator of hemoglobin concentration., We thank the individuals who participated in this study and whose contributions made this work possible. We also thank our valued colleagues who contributed to the data collection and phenotypic characterization of clinical samples as well as to the genotyping and analysis of the whole-genome association data. This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under application number 24711. F.W.A. is supported by UCL Hospitals NIHR Biomedical Research Centre.

Background During the current worldwide pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) was first diagnosed in Iceland at the end of February. However, data are limited on how SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, enters and spreads in a population. Methods We targeted testing to persons living in Iceland who were at high risk for infection (mainly those who were symptomatic, had recently traveled to high-risk countries, or had contact with infected persons). We also carried out population screening using two strategies: issuing an open invitation to 10,797 persons and sending random invitations to 2283 persons. We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 from 643 samples. Results As of April 4, a total of 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection with SARS-CoV-2. Of those tested in the general population, 87 (0.8%) in the open-invitation screening and 13 (0.6%) in the random-population screening tested positive for the virus. In total, 6% of the population was screened. Most persons in the targeted-testing group who received positive tests early in the study had recently traveled internationally, in contrast to those who tested positive later in the study. Children under 10 years of age were less likely to receive a positive result than were persons 10 years of age or older, with percentages of 6.7% and 13.7%, respectively, for targeted testing; in the population screening, no child under 10 years of age had a positive result, as compared with 0.8% of those 10 years of age or older. Fewer females than males received positive results both in targeted testing (11.0% vs. 16.7%) and in population screening (0.6% vs. 0.9%). The haplotypes of the sequenced SARS-CoV-2 viruses were diverse and changed over time. The percentage of infected participants that was determined through population screening remained stable for the 20-day duration of screening. Conclusions In a population-based study in Iceland, children under 10 years of age and females had a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection than adolescents or adults and males. The proportion of infected persons identified through population screening did not change substantially during the screening period, which was consistent with a beneficial effect of containment efforts. (Funded by deCODE Genetics–Amgen.)

Publisher's version (útgefin grein), Gallstones are responsible for one of the most common diseases in the Western world and are commonly treated with cholecystectomy. We perform a meta-analysis of two genomewide association studies of gallstone disease in Iceland and the UK, totaling 27,174 cases and 736,838 controls, uncovering 21 novel gallstone-associated variants at 20 loci. Two distinct low frequency missense variants in SLC10A2, encoding the apical sodium-dependent bile acid transporter (ASBT), associate with an increased risk of gallstone disease (Pro290Ser: OR = 1.36 [1.25–1.49], P = 2.1 × 10–12, MAF = 1%; Val98Ile: OR = 1.15 [1.10–1.20], P = 1.8 × 10–10, MAF = 4%). We demonstrate that lower bile acid transport by ASBT is accompanied by greater risk of gallstone disease and highlight the role of the intestinal compartment of the enterohepatic circulation of bile acids in gallstone disease susceptibility. Additionally, two low frequency missense variants in SERPINA1 and HNF4A and 17 common variants represent novel associations with gallstone disease., We thank the individuals who participated in this study and whose contribution made this work possible. We also thank our valued colleagues who contributed to the data collection and phenotypic characterization of clinical samples, as well as to the genotyping and analysis of the data.

Publisher's version (útgefin grein) Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations., Mutations in genes encoding subunits of the phagocyte NADPH oxidase complex are recognized to cause chronic granulomatous disease (CGD), a severe primary immunodeficiency. Here we describe how deficiency of CYBC1, a previously uncharacterized protein in humans (C17orf62), leads to reduced expression of NADPH oxidase’s main subunit (gp91phox) and results in CGD. Analyzing two brothers diagnosed with CGD we identify a homozygous loss-of-function mutation, p.Tyr2Ter, in CYBC1. Imputation of p.Tyr2Ter into 155K chipgenotyped Icelanders reveals six additional homozygotes, all with signs of CGD, manifesting as colitis, rare infections, or a severely impaired PMA-induced neutrophil oxidative burst. Homozygosity for p.Tyr2Ter consequently associates with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in Iceland (P = 8.3 × 10−8; OR = 67.6), as well as reduced height (P = 3.3 × 10−4; −8.5 cm). Overall, we find that CYBC1 deficiency results in CGD characterized by colitis and a distinct profile of infections indicative of macrophage dysfunction., We wish to thank the family of the two probands, as well as all the other individuals who participated in the study and whose contribution made this work possible.

Most sequence variants identified hitherto in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of atrial fibrillation are common, non-coding variants associated with risk through unknown mechanisms. We performed a meta-analysis of GWAS of atrial fibrillation among 29,502 cases and 767,760 controls from Iceland and the UK Biobank with follow-up in samples from Norway and the US, focusing on low-frequency coding and splice variants aiming to identify causal genes. We observe associations with one missense (OR = 1.20) and one splice-donor variant (OR = 1.50) in RPL3L, the first ribosomal gene implicated in atrial fibrillation to our knowledge. Analysis of 167 RNA samples from the right atrium reveals that the splice-donor variant in RPL3L results in exon skipping. We also observe an association with a missense variant in MYZAP (OR = 1.38), encoding a component of the intercalated discs of cardiomyocytes. Both discoveries emphasize the close relationship between the mechanical and electrical function of the heart.

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)., Aims Coarctation of the aorta (CoA) accounts for 4-8% of congenital heart defects (CHDs) and confers substantial morbidity despite treatment. It is increasingly recognized as a highly heritable condition. The aim of the study was to search for sequence variants that affect the risk of CoA. Methods and results We performed a genome-wide association study of CoA among Icelanders (120 cases and 355 166 controls) based on imputed variants identified through whole-genome sequencing. We found association with a rare (frequency = 0.34%) missense mutation p.Arg721Trp in MYH6 (odds ratio = 44.2, P = 5.0-10-22), encoding the lphaheavy chain subunit of cardiac myosin, an essential sarcomere protein. Approximately 20% of individuals with CoA in Iceland carry this mutation. We show that p.Arg721Trp also associates with other CHDs, in particular bicuspid aortic valve. We have previously reported broad effects of p.Arg721Trp on cardiac electrical function and strong association with sick sinus syndrome and atrial fibrillation. Conclusion Through a population approach, we found that a rare missense mutation p.Arg721Trp in the sarcomere gene MYH6 has a strong effect on the risk of CoA and explains a substantial fraction of the Icelanders with CoA. This is the first mutation associated with non-familial or sporadic form of CoA at a population level. The p.Arg721Trp in MYH6 causes a cardiac syndrome with highly variable expressivity and emphasizes the importance of sarcomere integrity for cardiac development and function. © 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology., deCODE genetics/Amgen, Inc. The study was approved by the Icelandic Data Protection Authority and the National Bioethics Committee of Iceland. Study approval numbers were VSN-15-053, VSN-15-016, VSN-15-056, VSN-15-058, VSN-15-114, VSN-15-057, and 10-009-S1. Written informed consent was obtained from all study participants. The study complies with the declaration of Helsinki.

The original HTML version of this Article was updated shortly after publication to add links to the Peer Review file.In addition, affiliations 16 and 17 incorrectly read ‘School of Medicine Sydney, University of Notre Dame Australia, Sydney, WA, 6160, Australia’ and ‘St Vincent’s Clinical School, University of New South Wales Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.’ This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

SummaryStudies of developmental pathways of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) have defined lineage relationships throughout the blood system. This is relevant to acute myeloid leukemia (AML), where aggressiveness and therapeutic responsiveness can be influenced by the initial stage of transformation. To address this, we generated a mouse model in which the mixed-lineage leukemia/eleven-nineteen-leukemia (MLL-ENL) transcription factor can be conditionally activated in any cell type. We show that AML can originate from multiple hematopoietic progenitor subsets with granulocytic and monocytic potential, and that the normal developmental position of leukemia-initiating cells influences leukemic development. However, disease failed to arise from HSCs. Although it maintained or upregulated the expression of target genes associated with leukemic development, MLL-ENL dysregulated the proliferative and repopulating capacity of HSCs. Therefore, the permissiveness for development of AML may be associated with a narrower window of differentiation than was previously appreciated, and hijacking the self-renewal capacity of HSCs by a potent oncogene is insufficient for leukemic development.

Thousands of non-coding variants have been associated with increased risk of human diseases, yet the causal variants and their mechanisms-of-action remain obscure. In an integrative study combining massively parallel reporter assays (MPRA), expression analyses (eQTL, meQTL, PCHiC) and chromatin accessibility analyses in primary cells (caQTL), we investigate 1,039 variants associated with multiple myeloma (MM). We demonstrate that MM susceptibility is mediated by gene-regulatory changes in plasma cells and B-cells, and identify putative causal variants at six risk loci (SMARCD3, WAC, ELL2, CDCA7L, CEP120, and PREX1). Notably, three of these variants co-localize with significant plasma cell caQTLs, signaling the presence of causal activity at these precise genomic positions in an endogenous chromosomal context in vivo. Our results provide a systematic functional dissection of risk loci for a hematologic malignancy., The causality and functional roles of disease-associated variants revealed by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are mostly unexplored. Here the authors identify putative causal variants in multiple myeloma and find their association with gene expression and chromatin accessibility.