Search

The re‐assembly of plant communities during climate warming depends on several concurrent processes. Here, we present a novel framework that integrates spatially explicit sampling, plant trait information and a warming experiment to quantify shifts in these assembly processes. By accounting for spatial distance between individuals, our framework allows separation of potential signals of environmental filtering from those of different types of competition. When applied to an elevational transplant experiment in the French Alps, we found common signals of environmental filtering and competition in all communities. Signals of environmental filtering were generally stronger in alpine than in subalpine control communities, and warming reduced this filter. Competition signals depended on treatments and traits: Symmetrical competition was dominant in control and warmed alpine communities, while hierarchical competition was present in subalpine communities. Our study highlights how distance‐dependent frameworks can contribute to a better understanding of transient re‐assembly dynamics during environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDMs) are statistical tools that relate species observations to environmental conditions to retrieve ecological niches and predict species' potential geographic distributions. The quality and robustness of SDMs clearly depend on good modelling practices including ascertaining the ecological relevance of predictors for the studied species and choosing an appropriate spatial resolution (or 'grain size'). While past studies showed improved model performance with increasing resolution for sessile organisms, there is still no consensus regarding how inappropriate resolution of predictors can impede understanding and mapping of multiple facets of diversity. Here, we modelled the distribution of 1180 plant species across the European Alps for two sets of predictors (climate and soil) at resolutions ranging from 100‐m to 40‐km. We assessed predictors' importance for each resolution, calculated taxonomic (TD), relative phylogenetic (rPD) and functional diversity (rFD) accordingly, and compared the resulting diversities across space. In accordance with previous studies, we found the predictive performance to generally decrease with decreasing predictor resolution. Overall, multifaceted diversity was found to be strongly affected by resolution, particularly rPD, as exhibited by weak to average linear relationships between 100‐m and 1‐km resolutions (0.13 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.57). Our results demonstrate the necessity of using highly resolved predictors to explain and predict sessile species distributions, especially in mountain environments. Using coarser resolution predictors might cause multifaceted diversity to be strongly mispredicted, with important consequences for biodiversity management and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trait‐based ecology aims to understand the processes that generate the overarching diversity of organismal traits and their influence on ecosystem functioning. Achieving this goal requires simplifying this complexity in synthetic axes defining a trait space and to cluster species based on their traits while identifying those with unique combinations of traits. However, so far, we know little about the dimensionality, the robustness to trait omission and the structure of these trait spaces. Here, we propose a unified framework and a synthesis across 30 trait datasets representing a broad variety of taxa, ecosystems and spatial scales to show that a common trade‐off between trait space quality and operationality appears between three and six dimensions. The robustness to trait omission is generally low but highly variable among datasets. We also highlight invariant scaling relationships, whatever organismal complexity, between the number of clusters, the number of species in the dominant cluster and the number of unique species with total species richness. When species richness increases, the number of unique species saturates, whereas species tend to disproportionately pack in the richest cluster. Based on these results, we propose some rules of thumb to build species trait spaces and estimate subsequent functional diversity indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions: Shrub vegetation has been expanding across much of the rapidly changing Arctic. Yet, there is still uncertainty about the underlying drivers of shrub community composition. Here, we use extensive vegetation surveys and a trait-based approach to answer the following questions: which abiotic and biotic factors explain abundance of shrub species and functional groups in the Arctic tundra, and can we interpret these relationships using plant traits related to resource acquisition? Location: Nuup Kangerlua (Godthåbsfjord), western Greenland. Methods: We tested the power of nine climatic, topographic and biotic variables to explain the abundances of nine shrub species using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework. Results: We found highly variable responses among species and functional groups to both abiotic and biotic environmental variation. The overall most important abiotic explanatory variable was annual air temperature variability, which was highly correlated with winter minimum air temperature. Functional community composition and graminoid abundance were the most influential biotic factors. While we did not find systematic patterns between shrub abundances and abiotic variables with regard to resource acquisition traits, these traits did explain relationships between shrub abundances and biotic variables. Conclusions: Shrub abundance responses to abiotic variables rarely aligned with expectations based on plants’ resource acquisition traits or functional groups. Our results, therefore, indicate that approaches exclusively based on resource acquisition traits might be limited in their ability to predict abundances of individual groups and species, particularly in response to complex abiotic environments. However, integrating community theory and functional trait concepts represents a promising pathway to better predict biotic interactions and ultimately responses of dominant shrub vegetation to rapid environmental changes across the arctic tundra biome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental features impacting the spread of invasive species after introduction can be assessed using population genetic structure as a quantitative estimation of effective dispersal at the landscape scale. However, in the case of an ongoing biological invasion, deciphering whether genetic structure represents landscape connectivity or founder effects is particularly challenging.We examined the modes of dispersal (natural and human‐aided) and the factors (landscape or founders history) shaping genetic structure in range edge invasive populations of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in the region of Grenoble (Southeast France).Based on detailed occupancy–detection data and environmental variables (climatic, topographic and land‐cover), we modelled A. albopictus potential suitable area and its expansion history since first introduction. The relative role of dispersal modes was estimated using biological dispersal capabilities and landscape genetics approaches using genome‐wide SNP dataset.We demonstrate that both natural and human‐aided dispersal have promoted the expansion of populations. Populations in diffuse urban areas, representing highly suitable habitat for A. albopictus, tend to disperse less, while roads facilitate long‐distance dispersal. Yet, demographic bottlenecks during introduction played a major role in shaping the genetic variability of these range edge populations.The present study is one of the few investigating the role of founder effects and ongoing expansion processes in shaping spatial patterns of genetic variation in an invasive species at the landscape scale. The combination of several dispersal modes and large proportions of continuous suitable habitats for A. albopictus promoted range filling of almost its entire potential distribution in the region of Grenoble only few years after introduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Western Paleartic species of Neocrepidodera Heikertinger (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Galerucinae: Alticini) mostly occur in medium and high elevation ecosystems particularly sensitive to climate change.Here, using ensemble projections from state‐of‐the‐art habitat suitability modelling techniques, we investigated how climate change and associated changes in host availability may affect the persistence of three pairs of closely related Neocrepidodera taxa.Modelled niches and suitability patterns reflected the current distributions of the targeted taxa. Neocrepidodera ligurica occupies a small portion of the broader environmental niche of N. melanostoma, and its narrow geographical range makes this species particularly vulnerable to potential loss of suitable habitats in Western Alps. Neocrepidodera cyanescens cyanescens and N. cyanescens concolor were found to occupy separate niches, but the non‐significance of the niche similarity test suggested their divergence being probably due to allopatric processes. Neocrepidodera corpulenta and N. rhaetica showed partially overlapping niches, coherently with their co‐occurrence in Western Alps. Most of the targeted taxa were predicted to potentially lose large portions of currently suitable areas in the forthcoming decades.Notwithstanding the candidate host plants did not emerge as most important predictors, except Aconitum lycoctonum for N. cyanescens concolor, a clear reduction of potential insect‐plant co‐occurrence areas resulted for most future scenarios.Climate was confirmed to noticeably affect the distribution of the targeted taxa, among which N. ligurica, N. cyanescens concolor, N. corpulenta and N. rhaetica may need specific prioritisation measures in the future decades, claiming for further attention on mountainous entomofauna in a warming world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Seasonal bird migration is one of the most fascinating global ecological phenomena. Yet, the biogeographic scenarios and climatic drivers that led single species or entire lineages to evolve seasonal migration between disjunct breeding and wintering ranges remain unclear. Based on distribution and phylogenetic data for all birds worldwide, we explored the biogeographic and climatic context of the evolutionary emergence of seasonal geographic migration in birds. Location: Global. Taxon: The Aves class (9,819 species). Methods: We used the worldwide phylogeny of all birds, with a new backbone tree, to test the link between birds' migration distance (short, variable, long) and strategy (resident, mixed, strict migrant) with four different metrics depicting species' thermal niches in their breeding and wintering ranges. We also performed ancestral state reconstructions for the main migratory orders to reconstruct past events of appearance and loss of migration behaviour, and past biogeographic scenarios that led to the emergence of seasonal geographic migration. Results: Migratory species generally experience warmer climates in their wintering range compared to their breeding one, although notable exceptions exist. This thermal niche change due to migration was found to be much larger for species travelling large distances. We also found that geographic migration emerged at different time periods through varied biogeographic paths (i.e. both from temperate and tropical ancestors) and that migration behaviour was likely ancestral to Passeriformes, with several subsequent episodes of loss of migration behaviour. Main conclusions: We report an evolutionary correlation between long‐distance migration and the tendency of birds to seek warmer climates during their non‐breeding period, compared to short‐distance migrants. Migration behaviour was likely ancestral to Passeriformes, and migratory lineages in general seem to have often adapted to novel ecological opportunities by returning to a resident state. Our results provide the first large‐scale study of biogeographic and climatic origins of bird migration worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: When modelling the distribution of animals under current and future conditions, both their response to environmental constraints and their resources’ response to these environmental constraints need to be taken into account. Here, we develop a framework to predict the distribution of large herbivores under global change, while accounting for changes in their main resources. We applied it to Rupicapra rupicapra, the chamois of the European Alps. Location: The Bauges Regional Park (French Alps). Methods: We built sixteen plant functional groups (PFGs) that account for the chamois’ diet (estimated from sequenced environmental DNA found in the faeces), climatic requirements, dispersal limitations, successional stage and interaction for light. These PFGs were then simulated using a dynamic vegetation model, under current and future climatic conditions up to 2100. Finally, we modelled the spatial distribution of the chamois under both current and future conditions using a point‐process model applied to either climate‐only variables or climate and simulated vegetation structure variables. Results: Both the climate‐only and the climate and vegetation models successfully predicted the current distribution of the chamois species. However, when applied into the future, the predictions differed widely. While the climate‐only models predicted an 80% decrease in total species occupancy, including vegetation structure and plant resources for chamois in the model provided more optimistic predictions because they account for the transient dynamics of the vegetation (−20% in species occupancy). Main conclusions: Applying our framework to the chamois shows that the inclusion of ecological mechanisms (i.e., plant resources) produces more realistic predictions under current conditions and should prove useful for anticipating future impacts. We have shown that discounting the pure effects of vegetation on chamois might lead to overpessimistic predictions under climate change. Our approach paves the way for improved synergies between different fields to produce biodiversity scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of migration routes in birds remains poorly understood as changes in migration strategies are rarely observed on contemporary timescales. 1–3 The Richard's Pipit Anthus richardi , a migratory songbird breeding in Siberian grasslands and wintering in Southeast Asia, has only recently become a regular autumn and winter visitor to western Europe. Here, we examine whether this change in occurrence merely reflects an increase in the number of vagrants, that is, "lost" individuals that likely do not manage to return to their breeding grounds, or represents a new migratory strategy. 4–6 We show that Richard's Pipits in southwestern Europe are true migrants: the same marked individuals return to southern France in subsequent winters and geo-localization tracking revealed that they originate from the western edge of the known breeding range. They make an astonishing 6,000 km journey from Central Asia across Eurasia, a very unusual longitudinal westward route among Siberian migratory birds. 7,8 Climatic niche modeling using citizen-science bird data suggests that the winter niche suitability has increased in southwestern Europe, which may have led to increased winter survival and eventual successful return journey and reproduction of individuals that initially reached Europe as autumn vagrants. This illustrates that vagrancy may have an underestimated role in the emergence of new migratory routes and adaptation to global change in migratory birds. 9,10 Whatever the underlying drivers and mechanisms, it constitutes one of the few documented contemporary changes in migration route, and the first longitudinal shift, in a long-distance migratory bird. [Display omitted] • Richard's Pipit normally breeds in Siberia and winters in southern Asia • The species has recently increased in Europe from occasional to regular visitor • Birds undertake a rare westward seasonal migration across Eurasia to southern Europe • Vagrancy and climate change likely promoted the establishment of this migration route Richard's Pipit is an Asian migratory passerine that normally winters in Southeast Asia. Dufour et al. find that the species is now a regular migrant to Europe. Vagrancy probably allowed the colonization of this new wintering area, helped by an increase of wintering niche suitability due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species can encounter environments different from their source populations, which may trigger rapid adaptive changes after introduction (niche shift hypothesis). To test this hypothesis, we investigated whether postintroduction evolution is correlated with contrasting environmental conditions between the European invasive and source ranges in the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus . The comparison of environmental niches occupied in European and source population ranges revealed more than 96% overlap between invasive and source niches, supporting niche conservatism. However, we found evidence for postintroduction genetic evolution by reanalyzing a published ddRADseq genomic dataset from 90 European invasive populations using genotype-environment association (GEA) methods and generalized dissimilarity modeling (GDM). Three loci, among which a putative heat-shock protein, exhibited significant allelic turnover along the gradient of winter precipitation that could be associated with ongoing range expansion. Wing morphometric traits weakly correlated with environmental gradients within Europe, but wing size differed between invasive and source populations located in different climatic areas. Niche similarities between source and invasive ranges might have facilitated the establishment of populations. Nonetheless, we found evidence for environmental-induced adaptive changes after introduction. The ability to rapidly evolve observed in invasive populations (genetic shift) together with a large proportion of unfilled potential suitable areas (80%) pave the way to further spread of Ae. albopictus in Europe., Competing Interests: None declared., (© 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)