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Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

The software requirements for the High Performance Computing and Communication Program High Speed Civil Transport application project, referred to as HSCT4.0, are described. The objective of the HSCT4.0 application project is to demonstrate the application of high-performance computing techniques to the problem of multidisciplinary design optimization of a supersonic transport configuration, using high-fidelity analysis simulations. Descriptions of the various functions (and the relationships among them) that make up the multidisciplinary application as well as the constraints on the software design arc provided. This document serves to establish an agreement between the suppliers and the customer as to what the HSCT4.0 application should do and provides to the software developers the information necessary to design and implement the system.

An objective of the High Performance Computing and Communication Program at the NASA Langley Research Center is to demonstrate multidisciplinary shape and sizing optimization of a complete aerospace vehicle configuration by using high-fidelity finite-element structural analysis and computational fluid dynamics aerodynamic analysis in a distributed, heterogeneous computing environment that includes high performance parallel computing. A software system has been designed and implemented to integrate a set of existing discipline analysis codes, some of them computationally intensive, into a distributed computational environment for the design of a high-speed civil transport configuration. The paper describes both the preliminary results from implementing and validating the multidisciplinary analysis and the results from an aerodynamic optimization. The discipline codes are integrated by using the Java programming language and a Common Object Request Broker Architecture compliant software product. A companion paper describes the formulation of the multidisciplinary analysis and optimization system.

An objective of the HPCC Program at NASA Langley has been to promote the use of advanced computing techniques to more rapidly solve the problem of multidisciplinary optimization of a supersonic transport configuration. As a result, a software system has been designed and is being implemented to integrate a set of existing discipline analysis codes, some of them CPU-intensive, into a distributed computational framework for the design of a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) configuration. The proposed paper will describe the engineering aspects of integrating these analysis codes and additional interface codes into an automated design system. The objective of the design problem is to optimize the aircraft weight for given mission conditions, range, and payload requirements, subject to aerodynamic, structural, and performance constraints. The design variables include both thicknesses of structural elements and geometric parameters that define the external aircraft shape. An optimization model has been adopted that uses the multidisciplinary analysis results and the derivatives of the solution with respect to the design variables to formulate a linearized model that provides input to the CONMIN optimization code, which outputs new values for the design variables. The analysis process begins by deriving the updated geometries and grids from the baseline geometries and grids using the new values for the design variables. This free-form deformation approach provides internal FEM (finite element method) grids that are consistent with aerodynamic surface grids. The next step involves using the derived FEM and section properties in a weights process to calculate detailed weights and the center of gravity location for specified flight conditions. The weights process computes the as-built weight, weight distribution, and weight sensitivities for given aircraft configurations at various mass cases. Currently, two mass cases are considered: cruise and gross take-off weight (GTOW). Weights information is obtained from correlations of data from three sources: 1) as-built initial structural and non-structural weights from an existing database, 2) theoretical FEM structural weights and sensitivities from Genesis, and 3) empirical as-built weight increments, non-structural weights, and weight sensitivities from FLOPS. For the aeroelastic analysis, a variable-fidelity aerodynamic analysis has been adopted. This approach uses infrequent CPU-intensive non-linear CFD to calculate a non-linear correction relative to a linear aero calculation for the same aerodynamic surface at an angle of attack that results in the same configuration lift. For efficiency, this nonlinear correction is applied after each subsequent linear aero solution during the iterations between the aerodynamic and structural analyses. Convergence is achieved when the vehicle shape being used for the aerodynamic calculations is consistent with the structural deformations caused by the aerodynamic loads. To make the structural analyses more efficient, a linearized structural deformation model has been adopted, in which a single stiffness matrix can be used to solve for the deformations under all the load conditions. Using the converged aerodynamic loads, a final set of structural analyses are performed to determine the stress distributions and the buckling conditions for constraint calculation. Performance constraints are obtained by running FLOPS using drag polars that are computed using results from non-linear corrections to the linear aero code plus several codes to provide drag increments due to skin friction, wave drag, and other miscellaneous drag contributions. The status of the integration effort will be presented in the proposed paper, and results will be provided that illustrate the degree of accuracy in the linearizations that have been employed.

Sensitivity derivative (SD) calculation via automatic differentiation (AD) typical of that required for the aerodynamic design of a transport-type aircraft is considered. Two ways of computing SD via code generated by the ADIFOR automatic differentiation tool are compared for efficiency and applicability to problems involving large numbers of design variables. A vector implementation on a Cray Y-MP computer is compared with a coarse-grained parallel implementation on an IBM SP1 computer, employing a Fortran M wrapper. The SD are computed for a swept transport wing in turbulent, transonic flow; the number of geometric design variables varies from 1 to 60 with coupling between a wing grid generation program and a state-of-the-art, 3-D computational fluid dynamics program, both augmented for derivative computation via AD. For a small number of design variables, the Cray Y-MP implementation is much faster. As the number of design variables grows, however, the IBM SP1 becomes an attractive alternative in terms of compute speed, job turnaround time, and total memory available for solutions with large numbers of design variables. The coarse-grained parallel implementation also can be moved easily to a network of workstations.

A conservative finite-volume difference scheme is developed for the potential equation to solve transonic flow about airfoils and bodies in an arbitrary channel. The scheme employs a mesh which is a nearly-conformal 'O' mesh about the airfoil and nearly orthogonal at the channel walls. The mesh extends to infinity upstream and downstream, where the mapping is singular. Special procedures are required to treat the singularities at infinity, including computation of the metrics near those points. Channels with exit areas different from inlet areas are solved; a body with a sting mount is an example of such a case.

Previously cited in issue 17, p. 2873, Accession no. A81-38082

A conservative, finite-difference, full-potential relaxation code has been developed to solve transonic flow around axisymmetric or nonlifting, planar, two-dimensional bodies. The program utilizes the artificial compressibility method to provide an upwind bias in supersonic regions. Calculated examples include a wide variety of axisymmetric and planar two-dimensional shapes with various blunt, pointed and open ends in subsonic, transonic, and low supersonic free streams. Comparisons between conservative and nonconservative full-potential calculations show perfect agreement at convergence when the flow is entirely subsonic. Noticeable differences exist, however, between the conservative and nonconservative solutions for transonic flows with shocks.