1. Bridging the gap - estimation of 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel.
- Author
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Harries M, Jaeger VK, Rodiah I, Hassenstein MJ, Ortmann J, Dreier M, von Holt I, Brinkmann M, Dulovic A, Gornyk D, Hovardovska O, Kuczewski C, Kurosinski MA, Schlotz M, Schneiderhan-Marra N, Strengert M, Krause G, Sester M, Klein F, Petersmann A, Karch A, and Lange B
- Subjects
- Humans, Cohort Studies, Pandemics, Germany epidemiology, Antibodies, Viral, Antibodies, Neutralizing, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 epidemiology
- Abstract
Objectives: Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany like other countries lacked adaptive population-based panels to monitor the spread of epidemic diseases., Methods: To fill a gap in population-based estimates needed for winter 2022/23 we resampled in the German SARS-CoV-2 cohort study MuSPAD in mid-2022, including characterization of systemic cellular and humoral immune responses by interferon-γ-release assay (IGRA) and CLIA/IVN assay. We were able to confirm categorization of our study population into four groups with differing protection levels against severe COVID-19 courses based on literature synthesis. Using these estimates, we assessed potential healthcare burden for winter 2022/23 in different scenarios with varying assumptions on transmissibility, pathogenicity, new variants, and vaccine booster campaigns in ordinary differential equation models., Results: We included 9921 participants from eight German regions. While 85% of individuals were located in one of the two highest protection categories, hospitalization estimates from scenario modeling were highly dependent on viral variant characteristics ranging from 30-300% compared to the 02/2021 peak. Our results were openly communicated and published to an epidemic panel network and a newly established modeling network., Conclusions: We demonstrate feasibility of a rapid epidemic panel to provide complex immune protection levels for inclusion in dynamic disease burden modeling scenarios., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2024
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