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Central Europe, the focus region of this study, is a region in transition, climatically from maritime to continental and politically from formerly more planning-oriented to more market-oriented management regimes, and in terms of climate change from regions of increasing precipitation in the west and north of Europe to regions of decreasing precipitation in central and southern Europe. The Elbe basin, a trans-boundary catchment flowing from the Czech Republic through Germany into the North Sea, was selected to investigate the possible impacts of global change on crop yields and water resources in this region. For technical reasons, the paper has been split into two parts, the first showing the overall model concept, the model set-up for the agricultural sector, and first results linking eco-hydrological and agro-economic tools for the German part of the basin. The second part describes the model setup for simulating water supply and demand linking ecohydrological and water management tools for the entire basin including the Czech part. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An integrated model system has been developed to estimate the impact of nitrogen reduction measures on the nitrogen load in groundwater and in river catchment areas. The focus lies on an area-wide, regionally differentiated, consistent link-up between the indicator "nitrogen balance surplus" and nitrogen charges into surface waters. As a starting point of the analysis actual nitrogen surpluses in the soil were quantified using the agro-economic RAUMIS-model, which considers the most important N-inputs to the soil and N-removals from the soil through crop harvest. The most important pathways for diffuse nitrogen inputs into river systems are modelled with the water balance model GROWA. Additionally, the time-dependent nitrogen degradation along the nitrogen pathways in soil and groundwater are modelled using the WEKU- model. The two selected river basins in Germany cover a variety of landscape units with different hydrological, hydrogeological and socio-economic characteristics. The results indicate a wide range of annual nitrogen surpluses for the rural areas between than 10 kg N ha-1⋅a-1 and 200 kg N ha-1⋅a-1 or more, depending on the type and intensity of farming. The level of nitrogen inputs into the surface waters is reduced because of degradation processes during transport in soil and groundwater. Policy impact analyses for a nitrogen tax and a limitation of the livestock density stress the importance of regionally adjusted measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the numerous non-point sources of diffuse water pollution with nitrogen, agriculture is counted one of the main sources. The agricultural policies of the Agenda 2000 and a decoupling of direct payments for farmers from their production decisions are exemplarily evaluated as nitrogen reduction measures using the Regional Agricultural and Environmental Information System RAUMIS. The results show that until the target year 2010 the risk of diffuse pollution of water bodies with nitrogen is a regional problem in Germany. These problems are neither mitigated by the policies of Agenda 2000 nor by a decoupling of direct payments from production decisions of farmers. While total nitrogen surplus reduces considerably after a decoupling of direct payments due to decreases of land-use the nitrogen surplus on the remaining cultivated area increases resulting from structural changes. Granting the same amount of direct payments to farmers in both policy alternatives the agricultural sector income would be higher after a decoupling of direct payments opposed to the Agenda 2000 resulting from a more efficient allocation of inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Conceptual framework for a model-based spatial decision support system to develop adaptation measures to climate change. [•] Combination of climatic and economic scenarios. [•] Applicable at the regional, field and farm level. [•] Participative approach including agricultural and regional stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]