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Producers of biofuels for the EU market may use ‘low ILUC-risk’ certification as evidence that they have not deprived other economic sectors of feedstock material, and hence that indirect land use change (ILUC) emissions have been avoided. At present, the uptake of low ILUC-risk certification is limited to a handful of niche projects, as there is little commercial incentive for obtaining certification. This may be considered a missed opportunity, because low ILUC-risk farming methods offer a range of sustainability co-benefits beyond the mitigation of ILUC emissions. This paper examines the policy foundations of low ILUC-risk and develops policy recommendations that would aim to confer advantages to low ILUC-risk biofuels. Some weaknesses in the low ILUC-risk system’s environmental safeguards are also highlighted.

Sustainable biofuels are an important tool for the decarbonisation of transport. This is especially true in aviation, maritime, and heavy-duty sectors with limited short-term alternatives. Their use by conventional transport fleets requires few changes to the existing infrastructure and engines, and thus their integration can be smooth and relatively rapid. Provision of feedstock should comply with sustainability principles for (i) producing additional biomass without distorting food and feed markets and (ii) addressing challenges for ecosystem services, including biodiversity, and soil quality. This paper performs a meta-analysis of current research for low indirect land use change (ILUC) risk biomass crops for sustainable biofuels that benefited either from improved agricultural practices or from cultivation in unused, abandoned, or severely degraded land. Two categories of biomass crops are considered here: oil and lignocellulosic. The findings confirm that there are significant opportunities to cultivate these crops in European agro-ecological zones with sustainable agronomic practices both in farming land and in land with natural constraints (unused, abandoned, and degraded land). These could produce additional low environmental impact feedstocks for biofuels and deliver economic benefits to farmers.

The present work provides an analysis of the potential impact of fossil-based Low Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) for the European aviation sector, with a time horizon to 2050. LCAF are a crude-derived alternative to kerosene, offering some Green House Gas (GHG) savings, and have been defined by ICAO as eligible fuels for mitigating the environmental impact of aviation. A methodological framework to evaluate the EU technical potential for LCAF production is developed, based on data on crude utilization for jet fuel production in EU refineries, relevant carbon intensity reduction technologies, market prices, and aviation fuel volumes. Two different baselines for fossil-derived kerosene carbon intensity (CI) are considered: a global figure of 89 gCO2e/MJ and an EU-27-specific one of 93.1 gCO2eq/MJ. Three scenarios considering increasing levels of CI reduction are then defined, taking into account the current and potential commercial availability of some of the most relevant carbon intensity reduction technologies. The analysis demonstrates that, even if LCAF could offer GHG saving opportunities, their possible impact, especially when compared to the ambition level set in the most recent European legislative proposals, is very limited in most of the analysed scenarios, with the exception of the most ambitious ones. At 2030, a non-zero technical potential is projected only in the higher CI reduction scenario, ranging between 1.8% and 14.2% of LCAF market share in the EU-27 (equal to 0.6 to 4.75 Mtoe), depending on the considered Baseline for CI. At 2050, almost all considered scenarios project a larger technical potential, ranging between 6.9% and 22.2% for the global Baseline (2.21 to 7.13 Mtoe), and between 1.8% and 16.2% for the EU-27 Baseline (0.58 to 5.2 Mtoe). LCAF additional costs to current production costs are also discussed, given their relevance in large-scale deployment of these technologies, and are projected to range between 39 and 46.8 USD/toe.

Accurate modelling of preignition chemical phenomena requires a detailed description of the respective low-temperature oxidative reactions. Motivated by the need to simulate a diesel oil spray evaporation device operating in the “stabilized” cool flame regime, a “tabulated chemistry” tool is formulated and evaluated. The tool is constructed by performing a large number of kinetic simulations, using the perfectly stirred reactor assumption. n-Heptane is used as a surrogate fuel for diesel oil and a detailed n-heptane mechanism is utilized. Three independent parameters (temperature, fuel concentration, and residence time) are used, spanning both the low-temperature oxidation and the autoignition regimes. Simulation results for heat release rates, fuel consumption and stable or intermediate species production are used to assess the impact of the independent parameters on the system’s thermochemical behaviour. Results provide the physical and chemical insight needed to evaluate the performance of the tool when incorporated in a CFD code. Multidimensional thermochemical behaviour “maps” are created, demonstrating that cool flame activity is favoured under fuel-rich conditions and that cool flame temperature boundaries are extended with increasing fuel concentration or residence time.