Luca Testi, Ermes Movedi, Davide Fumagalli, Pierluigi Calanca, Roberto Confalonieri, Stefano Niemeyer, Francisco J. Villalobos, Tommaso Guarneri, Álvaro López-Bernal, Gianni Bellocchi, Tommy Klein, Valentina Pagani, Università degli Studi di Milano [Milano] (UNIMI), Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Monitoring Agr Resources Unit H04, Via Fermi 2749,TP 263, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy, European Commission, Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible - Institute for Sustainable Agriculture (IAS CSIC), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Agroscope, Universidad de Cordoba, Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR (UREP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS), Université de Milan, Università degli studi di Milano [Milano], CSIC, Apdo 4084, Cordoba 14080, Spain, and Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible
The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system., Part of the methodology of this study has been funded under the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), grant agreement no. 613817 (MODEXTREME, Modelling vegetation response to extreme events, http://modextreme.org).