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1. Synchronous decadal climate variability in the tropical Central Pacific and tropical South Atlantic

Author: Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Soong-Ki Kim, Malte F. Stuecker, Wenjun Zhang, Fei-Fei Jin, Jae-Heung Park, Leishan Jiang, Aoyun Xue, Xin Geng, Hyo-Jin Park, Young-Min Yang, and Jong-Seong Kug
Subjects: Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract: Abstract Pantropical climate interactions across ocean basins operate on a wide range of timescales and can improve the accuracy of climate predictions. Here, we show in observations that Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have coevolved with tropical South Atlantic SST anomalies on a quasi-decadal (~10-year) timescale over the past seven decades. During the austral autumn–winter season, decadal warm SSTs in the tropical CP effectively induce tropical SST cooling in the South Atlantic, mainly by strengthening the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone via an extratropical atmospheric wave teleconnection in the southern hemisphere. Partially coupled pacemaker simulations corroborate the observational findings, indicating that tropical CP decadal SSTs play a primary pacing role, while Atlantic feedback is of secondary importance throughout the study period. Our results suggest that the tropical CP could be an important source of decadal predictability for tropical South Atlantic SST and the surrounding climate.
Published: 2024
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2. Northwestern Pacific Oceanic circulation shaped by ENSO

Author: You-Lin Wang, Fei-Fei Jin, Chau-Ron Wu, and Bo Qiu
Subjects: Medicine, Science
Abstract: Abstract The intricate currents of the Northwest Pacific Ocean, with strong manifestations along the westside rim, connect tropical and subtropical gyres and significantly influence East Asian and global climates. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and disrupts this ocean circulation system. However, the spatiotemporal dependence of the impact of ENSO events has yet to be elucidated because of the complexities of both ENSO events and circulation systems, as well as the increased availability of observational data. We thus combined altimeter and drifter observations to demonstrate the distinct tropical and subtropical influences of the circulation system on ENSO diversity. During El Niño years, the North Equatorial Current, North Equatorial Countercurrent, Mindanao Current, Indonesian Throughflow, and the subtropical Kuroshio Current and its Extension region exhibit strengthening, while the tropical Kuroshio Current weakens. The tropical impact is characterized by sea level changes in the warm pool, whereas the subtropical influence is driven by variations in the wind stress curl. The tropical and subtropical influences are amplified during the Centra Pacific El Niño years compared to the Eastern Pacific El Niño years. As the globe warms, these impacts are anticipated to intensify. Thus, strengthening observation systems and refining climate models are essential for understanding and projecting the enhancing influences of ENSO on the Northwest Pacific Oceanic circulation.
Published: 2024
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3. Ocean internal tides suppress tropical cyclones in the South China Sea

Author: Shoude Guan, Fei-Fei Jin, Jiwei Tian, I-I Lin, Iam-Fei Pun, Wei Zhao, John Huthnance, Zhao Xu, Wenju Cai, Zhao Jing, Lei Zhou, Ping Liu, Yihan Zhang, Zhiwei Zhang, Chun Zhou, Qingxuan Yang, Xiaodong Huang, Yijun Hou, and Jinbao Song
Subjects: Science
Abstract: Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are devastating natural disasters. Analyzing four decades of global TC data, here we find that among all global TC-active basins, the South China Sea (SCS) stands out as particularly difficult ocean for TCs to intensify, despite favorable atmosphere and ocean conditions. Over the SCS, TC intensification rate and its probability for a rapid intensification (intensification by ≥ 15.4 m s−1 day−1) are only 1/2 and 1/3, respectively, of those for the rest of the world ocean. Originating from complex interplays between astronomic tides and the SCS topography, gigantic ocean internal tides interact with TC-generated oceanic near-inertial waves and induce a strong ocean cooling effect, suppressing the TC intensification. Inclusion of this interaction between internal tides and TC in operational weather prediction systems is expected to improve forecast of TC intensity in the SCS and in other regions where strong internal tides are present.
Published: 2024
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4. Hemispheric asymmetric response of tropical cyclones to CO2 emission reduction

Author: Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Jiuwei Zhao, Seok-Woo Son, Fei-Fei Jin, and Ruifen Zhan
Subjects: Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract: Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural hazards for coastal regions, and their response to human activities has broad socio-economic relevance. So far, how TC responds to climate change mitigation remains unknown, complicating the design of adaptation policies. Using net-zero and negative carbon emission experiments, we reveal a robust hemisphere-asymmetric hysteretic TC response to CO2 reduction. During the decarbonization phase, the Northern Hemisphere TC frequency continues to decrease for several more decades, while the Southern Hemisphere oceans abruptly shifts to a stormier state, with the timescales depending on mitigation details. Such systematic changes are largely attributed to the planetary-scale reorganization of vertical wind shear and midlevel upward motion associated with the hysteretic southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, underpinned by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and El Niño-like mean state changes. The hemispheric contrast in TC response suggests promising benefits for most of the world’s population from human action to mitigate greenhouse gas warming, but it may also exacerbate regional socioeconomic disparities, for example by putting more pressure on small open-ocean island states in the Southern Hemisphere to adapt to TC risks.
Published: 2024
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5. The mechanism of boreal summer SSTA phase-locking in the far eastern Pacific

Author: Han-Ching Chen and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract: Abstract In observations, the boreal winter El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking phenomenon is evident in the central-eastern Pacific. In the far eastern equatorial Pacific (FEP) and South American coastal regions, however, the peak of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) tends to occur in the boreal summer, with fewer winter peak events. By separating the direct ENSO forcing from the FEP SSTA, we found that the summer peak preference is contributed by the residual SSTA component, while the ENSO forcing provides only a small probability of winter peak. The dynamics of FEP SSTA phase-locking in observations and its biases in the climate models are investigated by adopting a linear stochastic-dynamical model. In observations, the summer phase-locking of FEP SSTA is controlled by the seasonal modulation of the SSTA damping process. In contrast, in the climate models the strength of FEP SSTA phase-locking is much smaller than observed due to the overly negative SSTA damping rate.
Published: 2023
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6. ENSO skewness hysteresis and associated changes in strong El Niño under a CO2 removal scenario

Author: Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. Stuecker, Wenjun Zhang, Jong-Seong Kug, Xinyi Yuan, Jongsoo Shin, Aoyun Xue, Xin Geng, and Soong-Ki Kim
Subjects: Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract: Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly skewness encapsulates the nonlinear processes of strong ENSO events and affects future climate projections. Yet, its response to CO2 forcing remains not well understood. Here, we find ENSO skewness hysteresis in a large ensemble CO2 removal simulation. The positive SST skewness in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific gradually weakens (most pronounced near the dateline) in response to increasing CO2, but weakens even further once CO2 is ramped down. Further analyses reveal that hysteresis of the Intertropical Convergence Zone migration leads to more active and farther eastward-located strong eastern Pacific El Niño events, thus decreasing central Pacific ENSO skewness by reducing the amplitude of the central Pacific positive SST anomalies and increasing the scaling effect of the eastern Pacific skewness denominator, i.e., ENSO intensity, respectively. The reduction of eastern Pacific El Niño maximum intensity, which is constrained by the SST zonal gradient of the projected background El Niño-like warming pattern, also contributes to a reduction of eastern Pacific SST skewness around the CO2 peak phase. This study highlights the divergent responses of different strong El Niño regimes in response to climate change.
Published: 2023
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7. Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position

Author: Rafael Almar, Julien Boucharel, Marcan Graffin, Gregoire Ondoa Abessolo, Gregoire Thoumyre, Fabrice Papa, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jennifer Montano, Erwin W. J. Bergsma, Mohamed Wassim Baba, and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: Science
Abstract: Abstract Coastal zones are fragile and complex dynamical systems that are increasingly under threat from the combined effects of anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Using global satellite derived shoreline positions from 1993 to 2019 and a variety of reanalysis products, here we show that shorelines are under the influence of three main drivers: sea-level, ocean waves and river discharge. While sea level directly affects coastal mobility, waves affect both erosion/accretion and total water levels, and rivers affect coastal sediment budgets and salinity-induced water levels. By deriving a conceptual global model that accounts for the influence of dominant modes of climate variability on these drivers, we show that interannual shoreline changes are largely driven by different ENSO regimes and their complex inter-basin teleconnections. Our results provide a new framework for understanding and predicting climate-induced coastal hazards.
Published: 2023
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8. La Niña's Teleconnection to the Indian Ocean Dipole Controlled by Its Longitudinal Position

Author: Teng Zhang, Wenjun Zhang, Feng Jiang, and Fei‐Fei Jin
Subjects: Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809
Abstract: Abstract While the prominent influence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Indian Ocean Oscillation (IOD) is widely recognized, intricate relationships between them are often invoked that introduce challenges into seasonal predictions. Previous studies have shown that different flavors of El Niño exhibit distinct associations with the IOD. In this study, we demonstrate that La Niña's teleconnection to the IOD is primarily controlled by its longitudinal position. Westward‐displaced La Niña events tend to produce stronger negative convection anomalies in the central Pacific and more pronounced Walk Circulation anomalies, thereby triggering strong negative IOD events. In contrast, eastward‐displaced La Niña events are usually accompanied by feeble convection response due to the excessively cold conditions in the cold tongue, yielding insignificant IOD response. The pivotal role of La Niña's longitudinal position on the IOD's response is realistically reproduced by targeted pacemaker experiments, providing new insights into inter‐basin climate connections.
Published: 2024
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9. Tropical Origins of the Pacific Meridional Mode Associated With the Nonlinear Interaction of ENSO With the Annual Cycle

Author: Feng Jiang, Wenjun Zhang, Julien Boucharel, and Fei‐Fei Jin
Subjects: ENSO, PMM, seasonal cycle, C‐mode, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809
Abstract: Abstract The Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) has long been associated with extra‐tropical air‐sea coupling processes, which are thought to influence the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we show that the PMM on seasonal to interannual timescales is closely associated with a newly proposed tropical mode known as the ENSO Combination mode (C‐mode), which arises from the nonlinear interaction between ENSO and the background annual cycle in the deep tropics. The PMM exhibits a remarkable resemblance with the C‐mode in atmospheric patterns, spectral characteristics, and local impacts. Based on a simple Hasselmann‐type model, we further demonstrate that the C‐mode‐related atmospheric anomalies can effectively drive PMM‐like sea surface temperature anomalies. As the C‐mode captures seasonally modulated ENSO characteristics, the seasonal‐to‐interannual PMM variability could naturally establish a connection with ENSO, thereby offering an alternative explanation for the observed relationship between PMM and ENSO.
Published: 2023
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10. More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

Author: Na-Yeon Shin, Jong-Seong Kug, Malte F. Stuecker, Fei-Fei Jin, Axel Timmermann, and Geon-Il Kim
Subjects: Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract: Abstract El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we report an inter-model consensus on future El Niño diversity changes. Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently compared to eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Concurrently, EP El Niño events are projected to increase in amplitude, leading to higher chances of extreme EP El Niño occurrences. We suggest that enhanced upper-ocean stability due to greenhouse warming can lead to a stronger surface-layer response for increasing positive feedbacks, more favorable excitation of CP El Niño. Whereas, enhanced nonlinear atmospheric responses to EP sea surface temperatures can lead to a higher probability of extreme EP El Niño.
Published: 2022
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11. Resolving the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Interaction Conundrum

Author: Feng Jiang, Wenjun Zhang, Fei‐Fei Jin, Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Michael J. McPhaden, Julien Boucharel, and Andrew T. Wittenberg
Subjects: ENSO, Atlantic Niño, inter‐basin interactions, climate predictability, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809
Abstract: Abstract Understanding the interaction between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans has challenged the climate community for decades. Typically, boreal summer Atlantic Niño events are followed by vigorous Pacific events of opposite sign around two seasons later. However, incorporating the equatorial Atlantic information to variabilities internal to the Pacific lends no significant additional predictive skill for the subsequent El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we resolve this conundrum in a physically consistent frame, in which the nascent onset of a Pacific event rapidly induces an opposite‐signed summer equatorial Atlantic event and the lead correlation of Atlantic over Pacific is a statistical artifact of ENSO's autocorrelation. This Pacific‐to‐Atlantic impact is limited to a short window around late spring due to seasonally‐amplified Atlantic atmosphere‐ocean coupling. This new frame reconciles the discrepancies between the observed and multi‐model simulated inter‐basin relationship, providing a major advance in understanding seasonally‐modulated inter‐basin climate connections as well as their predictability.
Published: 2023
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12. Epidemiology and the economic burden of traumatic fractures in China: A population-based study

Author: Bo-xuan Huang, Yan-hua Wang, Hai-bo Wang, Chu Wang, Fei-fei Jin, Jing Li, Lan-xia Gan, Ying Shi, Bao-guo Jiang, and Dian-ying Zhang
Subjects: traumatic fractures, population-based study, epidemiology, admission rate, in-hospital mortality, economic burden, Diseases of the endocrine glands. Clinical endocrinology, RC648-665
Abstract: ObjectivesNational data on the admission rate, distribution, in-hospital mortality, and economic burden of traumatic fractures in China is unclear. We aimed to conduct a cross-sectional population-based study to determine such above data at the national level in China.MethodsA national administrative database was used to review all traumatic fracture hospitalizations in China during 2020, from which a total of 2,025,169 inpatients with traumatic fractures was retrieved. Admission rates and in-hospital mortality rates stratified by age, sex, and region were calculated. The causes of traumatic fracture and economic burden were described.ResultsThe admission rate of traumatic fractures of all China population in 2020 was 1.437‰. The admission rate increased with age and varied with genders and causes of injuries. Falls are the leading cause of traumatic fracture hospitalization, followed by road traffic injuries. The most common diagnoses were femoral neck fractures, with a number of 138,377. The in-hospital mortality was 1.209‰. Road traffic injuries led to the highest in-hospital mortality. The median length of stay was 10 days, with the median hospitalization cost of ¥20,900 (about $3,056).ConclusionTraumatic fractures are concerning conditions with a high admission rate and in-hospital mortality in China, which are mainly caused by falls and road traffic injuries. The government should implement more public health policies to enhance the health of the elderly and improve transportation safety to prevent traumatic fractures.
Published: 2023
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13. An 'Eddy β-Spiral' mechanism for vertical velocity dipole patterns of isolated oceanic mesoscale eddies

Author: Yinglin Hou, Fei-Fei Jin, Shan Gao, Jun Zhao, Kai Liu, Tangdong Qu, and Fan Wang
Subjects: mesoscale eddies, vertical velocity, β-effect, w-equation, dipole pattern, Science, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, QH1-199.5
Abstract: Oceanic eddies accompanied by a significant vertical velocity (w) are known to be of great importance for the vertical transport of various climatically, biologically or biogeochemically relevant properties. Using quasi-geostrophic w-thinking to extend the classic “β-spiral” w-theory for gyre circulations to isolated and nearly symmetric oceanic mesoscale eddies, we propose that their w motion will be dominated by a strong east-west dipole pattern with deep ocean penetrations. Contrasting numerical simulations of idealized isolated eddies together with w-equation diagnostics confirm that the w-dipole is indeed dominated by the “eddy β-spiral” mechanism in the β-plane simulation, whereas this w-dipole expectedly disappears in the f-plane simulation. Analyses of relatively isolated warm and cold eddy examples show good agreement with the proposed mechanism. Our studies further clarify eddy vertical motions, have implications for ocean mixing and vertical transport, and inspire further studies.
Published: 2022
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14. Author Correction: Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position

Author: Rafael Almar, Julien Boucharel, Marcan Graffin, Gregoire Ondoa Abessolo, Gregoire Thoumyre, Fabrice Papa, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jennifer Montano, Erwin W. J. Bergsma, Mohamed Wassim Baba, and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: Science
Published: 2023
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15. Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño

Author: Wenjun Zhang, Feng Jiang, Malte F. Stuecker, Fei-Fei Jin, and Axel Timmermann
Subjects: Science
Abstract: It has been suggested that sea surface temperatures in the North Tropical Atlantic exert strong influence on the evolution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, the authors argue that observed statistics are fully consistent with ENSO driving climate variations in the Atlantic and not vice versa.
Published: 2021
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16. Toward Understanding El Niño Southern-Oscillation’s Spatiotemporal Pattern Diversity

Author: Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon, spatiotemporal pattern diversity, phase locking, ENSO asymmetry, recharge oscillator paradigm, Science
Abstract: The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, manifested by the great swings of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial central to eastern Pacific oceans, is a major source of interannual global shifts in climate patterns and weather activities. ENSO’s SST anomalies exhibit remarkable spatiotemporal pattern diversity (STPD), with their spatial pattern diversity dominated by Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and their temporal diversity marked by different timescales and intermittency in these types of events. By affecting various Earth system components, ENSO and its STPD yield significant environmental, ecological, economic, and societal impacts over the globe. The basic dynamics of ENSO as a canonical oscillator generated by coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific have been largely understood. A minimal simple conceptual model such as the recharge oscillator paradigm provides means for quantifying the linear and nonlinear seasonally modulated growth rate and frequency together with ENSO’s state-dependent noise forcing for understanding ENSO’s amplitude and periodicity, boreal winter-time phase locking, and warm/cold phase asymmetry. However, the dynamical mechanisms explaining the key features of ENSO STPD associated with CP and EP events remain to be better understood. This article provides a summary of the recent active research on the dynamics of ENSO STPD together with discussions on challenges and outlooks for theoretical, diagnostic, and numerical modeling approaches to advance our understanding and modeling of ENSO, its STPD, and their broad impacts.
Published: 2022
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17. ENSO Diversity Simulated in a Revised Cane-Zebiak Model

Author: Licheng Geng and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO diversity, ENSO bi-modality, Cane-Zebiak model, nonlinear convective heating, subsurface temperature parameterization, Science
Abstract: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon features rich sea surface temperature (SST) spatial pattern variations dominated by the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) patterns during its warm phase. Understanding such ENSO pattern diversity has been a subject under extensive research activity. To provide a framework for unveiling the fundamental dynamics of ENSO diversity, an intermediate coupled model based on the Cane-Zebiak-type framework, named RCZ, is established in this study. Compared with the original Cane-Zebiak model, RCZ consists of revised model formulation and well-tuned parameterization schemes. All model components are carefully validated against the observations via the standalone mode, in which the observed anomalous SST (wind stress) forcing is prescribed to drive the atmospheric (oceanic) component. The superiority of RCZ’s model components over those in the original Cane-Zebiak model is evidenced by their better performance in simulating the observations. Coupled simulation with RCZ satisfactorily reproduces aspects of the observed ENSO characteristics, including the spatial pattern, phase-locking, amplitude asymmetry, and, particularly, ENSO diversity/bi-modality. RCZ serves as a promising tool for studying dynamics of ENSO diversity as it resolves most of the relevant processes proposed in the literature, including atmospheric nonlinear convective heating, oceanic nonlinear dynamical heating, and the ENSO/westerly wind burst interaction.
Published: 2022
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18. Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

Author: Michiya Hayashi, Fei-Fei Jin, and Malte F. Stuecker
Subjects: Science
Abstract: The asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña episodes in the tropical Pacific is often not well represented in models. Here, the authors show that this asymmetry is related to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating and that a realistic representation of this process can potentially improve tropical climate projections.
Published: 2020
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19. A simple theory for the modulation of tropical instability waves by ENSO and the annual cycle

Author: Julien Boucharel and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: enso, combination tone, tropical instability waves, annual cycle, Oceanography, GC1-1581, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract: Motivated by a recent active period of Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) that followed the extreme 2015/2016 El Niño, we developed a stochastically forced linear model for TIWs with its damping rate modulated by the annual cycle and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The model’s analytical and numerical solutions capture relatively well the observed Pacific TIWs amplitude variability dominated by annual and ENSO timescales. In particular, our model reproduces the seasonal increase in TIWs variance during summers and falls and the nonlinear relationship with the ENSO phase characterised by a suppression, respectively increase of TIW activity during El Niño, respectively La Niña. A substantial fraction of TIWs amplitude modulation emerges from the deterministic nonlinear interaction between ENSO and the annual cycle. This simple mathematical formulation allows capturing the nonlinear rectifications of TIWs activity onto the annual cycle and ENSO through, for instance, TIWs-induced ocean heat transport. Moreover, our approach serves as a general theoretical framework to quantify the deterministic variability in the covariance of climate transients owing to the combined modulation of the annual cycle and ENSO.
Published: 2020
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20. Mode of Precipitation Variability Generated by Coupling of ENSO With Seasonal Cycle in the Tropical Pacific

Author: Yoshihiro Fukuda, Masahiro Watanabe, and Fei‐Fei Jin
Subjects: ENSO, precipitation, seasonal cycle, mode of variability, teleconnection, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809
Abstract: Abstract Tropical precipitation anomalies show very different patterns over the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific between the developing and decay phases of extreme El Niño despite similar patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Using observational data and atmospheric simulations for 1979–2018, we identified a meridional dipole mode of tropical precipitation variability, called the Pacific precipitation dipole mode (PPDM), which is critical for seasonally varying rainfall patterns related to extreme El Niño. We examined the mechanism of PPDM using a numerical model and found that the seasonal shift of the warm SST band in the eastern equatorial Pacific, when coupled with extreme SST anomalies, causes phase reversal of the PPDM. The PPDM can be regarded as a different manifestation of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation combination mode, as revealed by the surface wind anomalies, which also explains the distinct impact of extreme El Niño events over East Asia.
Published: 2021
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21. Tropical cyclones act to intensify El Niño

Author: Qiuyun Wang, Jianping Li, Fei-Fei Jin, Johnny C. L. Chan, Chunzai Wang, Ruiqiang Ding, Cheng Sun, Fei Zheng, Juan Feng, Fei Xie, Yanjie Li, Fei Li, and Yidan Xu
Subjects: Science
Abstract: While it is known that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences tropical cyclones, but little is known about a reverse effect. Here, data and model output shows that tropical cyclones can affect ENSO with a lead of 3 months, especially contributing to a significantly more intense El Niño in the winter months.
Published: 2019
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22. Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error

Author: Seon Tae Kim, Hye-In Jeong, and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: Medicine, Science
Abstract: Abstract This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.
Published: 2017
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23. Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Author: Cheng Sun, Fred Kucharski, Jianping Li, Fei-Fei Jin, In-Sik Kang, and Ruiqiang Ding
Subjects: Science
Abstract: The western tropical Pacific is a main source of heat and moisture for the global atmosphere, yet the mechanism for the multidecadal sea surface temperature variability in this region remains unknown. Here, the authors show that this variability is forced by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
Published: 2017
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24. Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events

Author: Xin Geng, Wenjun Zhang, Malte F. Stuecker, and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: Medicine, Science
Abstract: Abstract East Asia experienced a record-breaking cold event during the 2015/16 boreal winter, with pronounced impacts on livelihood in the region. We find that this large-scale cold spell can be attributed to the concurrent super El Niño event in the tropical Pacific. Our analysis reveals that all super El Niño winters (1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16) were accompanied by a rapid sub-seasonal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase reversal from a positive to a negative state during early January, which was largely caused by the interaction of these super El Niño events with the subtropical jet annual cycle. The NAO/AO phase transition leads to a rapidly strengthened Siberian High, which favors southward intrusions of cold air to East Asia and thus causes severe local cooling. Similar cold spells can also be detected over Northern Europe associated with the fast sub-seasonal NAO/AO phase reversal. Due to the weaker amplitude of the ENSO forcing, these sub-seasonal atmospheric responses cannot be detected for moderate El Niño events. The super El Niño associated sub-seasonal signal of the East Asian and Northern Europe wintertime temperature responses carries important implications for future predictability of regional extreme events.
Published: 2017
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25. Publisher Correction: Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

Author: Michiya Hayashi, Fei-Fei Jin, and Malte F. Stuecker
Subjects: Science
Abstract: An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Published: 2020
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26. Contrasting meridional structures of stratospheric and tropospheric planetary wave variability in the Northern Hemisphere

Author: Cheng Sun, Jianping Li, Fei-Fei Jin, and Fei Xie
Subjects: planetary waves, stratosphere, troposphere, spherical double Fourier series, two-dimensional wavenumber, Oceanography, GC1-1581, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract: The meridional structures of stratospheric and tropospheric planetary wave variability (PWV) over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics were investigated and compared using reanalysis data. By performing the spherical double Fourier series expansion of geopotential height data, the horizontal structures of PWV at each vertical level could be examined in the two-dimensional (2D) wavenumber (zonal and meridional wavenumbers) space. Comparing the amplitudes of wave components during the last three decades, the results suggested that the structures of PWV in the NH troposphere significantly differ from the stratospheric counterparts. The PWV in the troposphere shows multiple meridional wave-like structures, most pronounced for the meridional dipole; while in contrast, PWV in the stratosphere mainly shows large-scale zonal wave patterns, dominated by zonal waves 1 and 2, and have little wave-like fluctuation in the latitudinal direction. The dominant patterns of the NH PWV also show contrasting features of meridional structure between the stratosphere and the troposphere. As represented in the 2D wavenumber space, the leading two empirical orthogonal functions of PWV in the stratosphere largely exhibit the zonal wave 1 pattern, while those in the troposphere clearly show meridional wave-like structures and are dominated by the dipole. The refractive index was derived based on the zonal mean basic state to qualitatively interpret the observational findings. The results suggested that the basic state in the NH troposphere is much more favourable for latitudinally propagating stationary waves than the stratosphere. The difference in meridional structure between stratospheric and tropospheric planetary waves can be well captured in a linear baroclinic model with the observed zonal mean basic state. Furthermore, both theoretical and modelling analyses demonstrated that the fact that zonal wave patterns are preferred in the NH stratosphere may be partly attributable to the vertical curvature of the stratospheric zonal mean basic state.
Published: 2014
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27. A connection from Arctic stratospheric ozone to El Niño-Southern oscillation

Author: Fei Xie, Jianping Li, Wenshou Tian, Qiang Fu, Fei-Fei Jin, Yongyun Hu, Jiankai Zhang, Wuke Wang, Cheng Sun, Juan Feng, Yun Yang, and Ruiqiang Ding
Subjects: Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO), ENSO, NPO, Victoria Mode, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract: Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion is thought to influence the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric climate. Recently, Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) variations have been found to affect the middle-high latitude tropospheric climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This paper demonstrates that the impact of ASO can extend to the tropics, with the ASO variations leading El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events by about 20 months. Using observations, analysis, and simulations, the connection between ASO and ENSO is established by combining the high-latitude stratosphere to troposphere pathway with the extratropical to tropical climate teleconnection. This shows that the ASO radiative anomalies influence the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the anomalous NPO and induced Victoria Mode anomalies link to the North Pacific circulation that then influences ENSO. Our results imply that incorporating realistic and time-varying ASO into climate system models may help to improve ENSO predictions.
Published: 2016
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28. Sea surface temperature inter-hemispheric dipole and its relation to tropical precipitation

Author: Cheng Sun, Jianping Li, Fei-Fei Jin, and Ruiqiang Ding
Subjects: global SST variability, SST inter-hemispheric dipole, thermal gradient, tropical rainfall, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract: Using different SST datasets, the variability of zonal mean SSTs is investigated. Besides the global warming mode, the variability is dominated by one equatorially symmetric mode and one antisymmetric mode. The former is most pronounced in the Pacific and dominated by interannual variability, corresponding to the ENSO signature. The latter features an inter-hemispheric dipole-like pattern and is referred to as the SST inter-hemispheric dipole (SSTID). The SSTID and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation are found to be related but distinct in the spatial pattern. Observational analysis shows that the SSTID significantly influences tropical rainfall and contributes to the north–south asymmetry of tropical precipitation on multidecadal timescales. The observed SSTID and its relation to the tropical rainfall are realistically reproduced in a control simulation with the UKMO-HadCM3 climate model. Results from the UKMO-HadCM3 simulation suggest that the SSTID is related to the variability of the global ocean northward cross-equatorial heat transport.
Published: 2013
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29. Improved simulation of two types of El Niño in CMIP5 models

Author: Jong-Seong Kug, Yoo-Geun Ham, June-Yi Lee, and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: warm pool El Niño, two types of El Niño events, CMIP3, CMIP5, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract: Using the coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), simulations of the two types of El Niño event are evaluated. Previous studies using CMIP3 models pointed out that most of the models tend to simulate a single type of El Niño, and have serious problems in simulating the two types of El Niño independently. On the average, the CGCMs in CMIP5 have slightly better performance in simulating the two types of El Niño event independently with more distinct spatial patterns, compared to those in CMIP3. It is demonstrated that the precipitation response to Cold Tongue El Niño is one of the important factors in simulating the two types of El Niño independently in coupled models, and this precipitation response is closely related to the dry bias over the equatorial eastern Pacific.
Published: 2012
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30. Corrigendum: Improved simulation of two types of El Niño in CMIP5 models

Author: Jong-Seong Kug, Yoo-Geun Ham, June-Yi Lee, and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract: The article should include the following section: Acknowledgment This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (MEST) (NRF-2009—C1AAA001—2009-0093042).
Published: 2012
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31. ENSO Dynamics in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 Climate Models

Author: Chen, Han-Ching, Fei-Fei-Jin, Zhao, Sen, Wittenberg, Andrew T., and Xie, Shaocheng
Published: 2021

32. Effect of Storm Size on Sea Surface Cooling and Tropical Cyclone Intensification in the Western North Pacific.

Author: YUHAO LIU, SHOUDE GUAN, LIN, I.-I., WEI MEI, FEI-FEI JIN, MENGYA HUANG, YIHAN ZHANG, WEI ZHAO, and JIWEI TIAN
Subjects: TROPICAL cyclones, OCEAN conditions (Weather), OCEAN temperature, COOLING, STORMS, WIND power
Abstract: The effect of tropical cyclone (TC) size on TC-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and subsequent TC intensification is an intriguing issue without much exploration. Via compositing satellite-observed SST over the western North Pacific during 2004-19, this study systematically examined the effect of storm size on the magnitude, spatial extension, and temporal evolution of TC-induced SST anomalies (SSTA). Consequential influence on TC intensification is also explored. Among the various TC wind radii, SSTA are found to be most sensitive to the 34-kt wind radius (R34) (1 kt' 0.51 m s-1). Generally, large TCs generate stronger and more widespread SSTA than small TCs (for category 1-2 TCs, R34: ~270 vs 160 km; SSTA: 21.78 vs 20.98C). Despite the same effect on prolonging residence time of TC winds, the effect of doubling R34 on SSTA is more profound than halving translation speed, due to more wind energy input into the upper ocean. Also differing from translation speed, storm size has a rather modest effect on the rightward shift and timing of maximum cooling. This study further demonstrates that storm size regulates TC intensification through an oceanic pathway: large TCs tend to induce stronger SST cooling and are exposed to the cooling for a longer time, both of which reduce the ocean's enthalpy supply and thereby diminish TC intensification. For larger TCs experiencing stronger SST cooling, the probability of rapid intensification is half of smaller TCs. The presented results suggest that accurately specifying storm size should lead to improved cooling effect estimation and TC intensity prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Published: 2023
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33. Seasonal Dependence of the Pacific-North American Teleconnection Associated with ENSO and Its Interaction with the Annual Cycle.

Author: SUQIONG HU, WENJUN ZHANG, FEI-FEI JIN, LI-CIAO HONG, FENG JIANG, and STUECKER, MALTE F.
Subjects: EL Nino, GENERAL circulation model, TELECONNECTIONS (Climatology), ATMOSPHERIC circulation, SOUTHERN oscillation, SEASONS, OCEAN temperature
Abstract: The Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern is one of the prominent atmospheric circulation modes in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, and its seasonal to interannual predictability is suggested to originate from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Intriguingly, the PNA teleconnection pattern exhibits variance at near-annual frequencies, which is related to a rapid phase reversal of the PNA pattern during ENSO years, whereas the ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific are evolving much slower in time. This distinct seasonal feature of the PNA pattern can be explained by an amplitude modulation of the interannual ENSO signal by the annual cycle (i.e., the ENSO combination mode). The ENSO-related seasonal phase transition of the PNA pattern is reproduced well in an atmospheric general circulation model when both the background SST annual cycle and ENSO SST anomalies are prescribed. In contrast, this characteristic seasonal evolution of the PNA pattern is absent when the tropical Pacific background SST annual cycle is not considered in the modeling experiments. The background SST annual cycle in the tropical Pacific modulates the ENSO-associated tropical Pacific convection response, leading to a rapid enhancement of convection anomalies in winter. The enhanced convection results in a fast establishment of the large-scale PNA teleconnection during ENSO years. The dynamics of this ENSO-annual cycle interaction fills an important gap in our understanding of the seasonally modulated PNA teleconnection pattern during ENSO years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Published: 2023
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34. Distinct Surface Warming Response over the Western and Eastern Equatorial Pacific to Radiative Forcing

Author: Chanyoung Park, Sarah M. Kang, Malte F. Stuecker, and Fei‐Fei Jin
Subjects: Geophysics, General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Abstract: Localized_perturbation_experiments This is the dataset used to make main figures of Distinct Surface Warming Response over the Western and Eastern Equatorial Pacific to Radiative Forcing (2021), GRL (in preparation). Please refer to the method section. 1. Hierarchical modeling experiments are denoted as FSST, SOM, and DOM. Control run for the experiments is expressed with "ctl". Perturbation experiments are with "wp" for the western Pacific forcing, but "ep" for the eastern Pacific. 2. The name of "lastXX" indicates the time-mean used for analysis. 3. For the DOM experiments, the atmospheric output is shown with "atmos", and the ocean output with "ocean".
Published: 2021
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35. Exploratory COVID-19 death risk score based on basic laboratory tests and physiological clinical measurements.

Author: Gui-ying Dong, Fei-fei Jin, Qi Huang, Chun-bo Wu, Ji-hong Zhu, and Tian-bing Wang
Subjects: *DISEASE risk factors, *COVID-19, *LOGISTIC regression analysis, *RECEIVER operating characteristic curves, *DECISION making
Abstract: BACKGROUND: In the event of a sudden shortage of medical resources, a rapid, simple, and accurate prediction model is essential for the 30-day mortality rate of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective study compared the characteristics of the survivals and nonsurvivals of 278 patients with COVID-19. Logistic regression analysis was performed to obtain the “COVID-19 death risk score” (CDRS) model. Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, discrimination and calibration were assessed. Internal validation was conducted using a regular bootstrap method. RESULTS: A total of 63 (22.66%) of 278 included patients died. The logistic regression analysis revealed that high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP; odds ratio [OR]=1.018), D-dimer (OR=1.101), and respiratory rate (RR; OR=1.185) were independently associated with 30-day mortality. CDRS was calculated as follows: CDRS=−10.245+(0.022×hsCRP)+(0.172×Ddimer)+( 0.203×RR). CDRS had the same predictive effect as the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and “confusion, uremia, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age over 65 years” (CURB-65) scores, with AUROCs of 0.984 for CDRS, 0.975 for SOFA, and 0.971 for CURB-65, respectively. And CDRS showed good calibration. The AUROC through internal validations was 0.980 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.965–0.995). Regarding the clinical value, the decision curve analysis of CDRS showed a net value similar to that of CURB-65 in this cohort. CONCLUSION: CDRS is a novel, efficient and accurate prediction model for the early identification of COVID-19 patients with poor outcomes. Although it is not as advanced as the other models, CDRS had a similar performance to that of SOFA and CURB-65. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Published: 2022
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36. Tropical cyclones act to intensify El Niño

Author: Cheng Sun, Qiuyun Wang, Fei-Fei Jin, Johnny C. L. Chan, Ruiqiang Ding, Yanjie Li, Jianping Li, Juan Feng, Fei Zheng, Fei Xie, Fei Li, Yidan Xu, and Chunzai Wang
Subjects: 0301 basic medicine, Science, General Physics and Astronomy, 02 engineering and technology, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, Accumulated cyclone energy, symbols.namesake, parasitic diseases, lcsh:Science, Tropical pacific, Atmospheric dynamics, Multidisciplinary, General Chemistry, 021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology, La Niña, 030104 developmental biology, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Ocean sciences, El Niño, Climatology, symbols, Walker circulation, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, Tropical cyclone, 0210 nano-technology, Kelvin wave
Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs), some of the most influential weather events across the globe, are modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, little is known about the feedback of TCs on ENSO. Here, observational and modelling evidence shows that TC activity in the southeastern western North Pacific can affect the Niño-3.4 index 3 months later. Increased TC activity in July–September can significantly contribute to the intensity of ENSO in October–December by weakening the Walker circulation and enhancing eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves in the tropical Pacific. Thus, the greater the accumulated cyclone energy, the stronger (weaker) the El Niño (La Niña). A new physics-based empirical model for ENSO is constructed that significantly outperforms current models in predicting ENSO intensity from July to December and addressing the problem about the target period slippage of ENSO. Results suggest that TCs may provide significant cross-scale feedback to ENSO., While it is known that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences tropical cyclones, but little is known about a reverse effect. Here, data and model output shows that tropical cyclones can affect ENSO with a lead of 3 months, especially contributing to a significantly more intense El Niño in the winter months.
Published: 2019

37. Changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Author: Fan Jia, Michael J. McPhaden, Yoo-Geun Ham, Tao Geng, Josephine R. Brown, Axel Timmermann, Xiaopei Lin, Malte F. Stuecker, Benjamin Ng, Guojian Wang, Li Zhang, Jae Heung Park, Antonietta Capotondi, Karl Stein, Xichen Li, Kim M. Cobb, Bolan Gan, Tobias Bayr, Fei-Fei Jin, Christina Karamperidou, Boris Dewitte, Andréa S. Taschetto, Agus Santoso, Wenxiu Zhong, Xiao-Tong Zheng, Jun Ying, Wenju Cai, Sang-Wook Yeh, Lixin Wu, Shayne McGregor, Matthieu Lengaigne, Hyun-Su Jo, Kai Yang, Matthew Collins, Yun Yang, Jong-Seong Kug, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), University of South Wales (USW), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Climate Change Research Centre [Sydney] (CCRC), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Pusan National University, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), School of Earth Sciences [Melbourne], Faculty of Science [Melbourne], University of Melbourne-University of Melbourne, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences [Atlanta], Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta], Unité de Mathématiques Pures et Appliquées (UMPA-ENSL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon), Ocean University of China (OUC), Institute of Basic Science (IBS), School of Electronics and Computer Science (ECS), University of Southampton, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and ANR-18-CE01-0012,ARiSE,Rôle de la non-linéarité de la réponse atmosphérique à la température de l'océan dans la physique d'ENSO (El Niño Oscillation Australe)(2018)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, interannual timescale, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, mean-state, Climate change, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, nino/southern-oscillation, tropical pacific-ocean, interdecadal changes, atmospheric teleconnections, sea-surface temperature, 14. Life underwater, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Earth-Surface Processes, Greenhouse warming, 15. Life on land, Pollution, intermodel uncertainty, La Niña, Sea surface temperature, enso amplitude change, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Stratification (seeds), 13. Climate action, Internal variability, Climatology, la-nina, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Teleconnection
Abstract: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.
Published: 2021

38. Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events

Author: Malte F. Stuecker, Xin Geng, Wenjun Zhang, and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: Multidisciplinary, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Science, Forcing (mathematics), Subtropics, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Annual cycle, 01 natural sciences, Article, Siberian High, Boreal, Arctic oscillation, North Atlantic oscillation, Climatology, Environmental science, Medicine, East Asia, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: East Asia experienced a record-breaking cold event during the 2015/16 boreal winter, with pronounced impacts on livelihood in the region. We find that this large-scale cold spell can be attributed to the concurrent super El Niño event in the tropical Pacific. Our analysis reveals that all super El Niño winters (1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16) were accompanied by a rapid sub-seasonal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase reversal from a positive to a negative state during early January, which was largely caused by the interaction of these super El Niño events with the subtropical jet annual cycle. The NAO/AO phase transition leads to a rapidly strengthened Siberian High, which favors southward intrusions of cold air to East Asia and thus causes severe local cooling. Similar cold spells can also be detected over Northern Europe associated with the fast sub-seasonal NAO/AO phase reversal. Due to the weaker amplitude of the ENSO forcing, these sub-seasonal atmospheric responses cannot be detected for moderate El Niño events. The super El Niño associated sub-seasonal signal of the East Asian and Northern Europe wintertime temperature responses carries important implications for future predictability of regional extreme events.
Published: 2017

39. Author Correction: El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity

Author: Wenju Cai, Karl Stein, Pamela R. Grothe, Sang-Wook Yeh, Jin-Ho Yoon, Tim Li, WonMoo Kim, Yann Planton, Sunyong Kim, Xuebin Zhang, Hong Li Ren, Agus Santoso, Ken Takahashi, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Scott B. Power, Sarah Ineson, Fei-Fei Jin, Matthieu Lengaigne, Kyung-Sook Yun, Daehyun Kang, Han Ching Chen, Woo Hyun Yang, Alexander Todd, Boris Dewitte, Andrew T. Wittenberg, June-Yi Lee, Eric Guilyardi, Shayne McGregor, Kim M. Cobb, Michiya Hayashi, Dietmar Dommenget, Tobias Bayr, Jong-Seong Kug, Axel Timmermann, Malte F. Stuecker, Ruihuang Xie, Soon Il An, Antonietta Capotondi, Michael J. McPhaden, Elke Zeller, Harun Rashid, Guomin Wang, Guojian Wang, Jing-Jia Luo, Yoo-Geun Ham, Institute of Basic Science (IBS), International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM)-University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Seoul], Yonsei University, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Unité de Mathématiques Pures et Appliquées (UMPA-ENSL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [Aspendale], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences [Atlanta], Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta], Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), National Taiwan University [Taiwan] (NTU), Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University (USU), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Monash University [Clayton], University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, ATLSS Center, Lehigh University, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), University of Sussex, University of South Wales (USW), University of Occupational and Environmental Health [Kitakyushu] (UEOH), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), CSIRO Marine and Atmosphere Research [Hobart], École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment
Subjects: Multidisciplinary, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Climatology, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], CobB, Mathematics
Abstract: In this Review, the middle initial of author Kim M. Cobb was omitted. The original Review has been corrected online.
Published: 2019

40. Publisher Correction: Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

Author: Malte F. Stuecker, Fei-Fei Jin, and Michiya Hayashi
Subjects: Atmospheric dynamics, Multidisciplinary, Physical oceanography, media_common.quotation_subject, Science, General Physics and Astronomy, General Chemistry, Asymmetry, Publisher Correction, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Projection and prediction, La Niña, Geography, El Niño, Climatology, lcsh:Q, lcsh:Science, Climate and Earth system modelling, media_common
Abstract: An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Published: 2020

41. El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity

Author: Ken Takahashi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Guomin Wang, Tim Li, Antonietta Capotondi, Tobias Bayr, Michael J. McPhaden, Axel Timmermann, WonMoo Kim, Wenju Cai, Malte F. Stuecker, Sunyong Kim, Ruihuang Xie, Harun Rashid, Fei-Fei Jin, Alexander Todd, Jong-Seong Kug, Boris Dewitte, Sang-Wook Yeh, Yoo-Geun Ham, Kim M. Cobb, Elke Zeller, Agus Santoso, Scott B. Power, Dietmar Dommenget, Daehyun Kang, Michiya Hayashi, Soon Il An, Kyung-Sook Yun, Pamela R. Grothe, Guojian Wang, June-Yi Lee, Karl Stein, Jing-Jia Luo, Shayne McGregor, Eric Guilyardi, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Xuebin Zhang, Sarah Ineson, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Woo Hyun Yang, Han Ching Chen, Jin-Ho Yoon, Yann Planton, Hong Li Ren, Institute of Basic Science (IBS), Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences [Atlanta], Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta], Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), National Taiwan University [Taiwan] (NTU), Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University (USU), Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Aridas (CEAZA), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Monash University [Clayton], NCAS-Climate [Reading], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW)-Australian Research Council [Canberra] (ARC), Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Exeter Climate Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, Korean Ocean Research and Development Institute (KORDI), Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia, Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and University of Exeter
Subjects: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Tropical Climate, Multidisciplinary, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, Equator, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 15. Life on land, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Earth system science, Sea surface temperature, La Niña, El Niño, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Tropical climate, Water Movements, Environmental science, Terrestrial ecosystem, 14. Life underwater, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.
Published: 2018

42. Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error

Author: Fei-Fei Jin, Hye-In Jeong, and Seon Tae Kim
Subjects: Multidisciplinary, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Mean squared prediction error, Science, Forcing (mathematics), Physical oceanography, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Stability (probability), Article, Physics::Geophysics, Sea surface temperature, Amplitude, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Climatology, Environmental science, Medicine, Thermocline, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.
Published: 2017

43. Contrasting meridional structures of stratospheric and tropospheric planetary wave variability in the Northern Hemisphere

Author: Jianping Li, Fei Xie, Cheng Sun, and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Baroclinity, Northern Hemisphere, Geopotential height, Empirical orthogonal functions, Zonal and meridional, Dynamic Meteorology, Climate Dynamics, planetary waves, lcsh:QC851-999, Oceanography, Atmospheric sciences, Troposphere, lcsh:Oceanography, two-dimensional wavenumber, troposphere, Climatology, stratosphere, Meteorology, Atmospheric Dynamics, stratosphere-troposphere dynamics, Wavenumber, spherical double Fourier series, lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology, lcsh:GC1-1581, Stratosphere, Geology
Abstract: The meridional structures of stratospheric and tropospheric planetary wave variability (PWV) over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics were investigated and compared using reanalysis data. By performing the spherical double Fourier series expansion of geopotential height data, the horizontal structures of PWV at each vertical level could be examined in the two-dimensional (2D) wavenumber (zonal and meridional wavenumbers) space. Comparing the amplitudes of wave components during the last three decades, the results suggested that the structures of PWV in the NH troposphere significantly differ from the stratospheric counterparts. The PWV in the troposphere shows multiple meridional wave-like structures, most pronounced for the meridional dipole; while in contrast, PWV in the stratosphere mainly shows large-scale zonal wave patterns, dominated by zonal waves 1 and 2, and have little wave-like fluctuation in the latitudinal direction. The dominant patterns of the NH PWV also show contrasting features of meridional structure between the stratosphere and the troposphere. As represented in the 2D wavenumber space, the leading two empirical orthogonal functions of PWV in the stratosphere largely exhibit the zonal wave 1 pattern, while those in the troposphere clearly show meridional wave-like structures and are dominated by the dipole. The refractive index was derived based on the zonal mean basic state to qualitatively interpret the observational findings. The results suggested that the basic state in the NH troposphere is much more favourable for latitudinally propagating stationary waves than the stratosphere. The difference in meridional structure between stratospheric and tropospheric planetary waves can be well captured in a linear baroclinic model with the observed zonal mean basic state. Furthermore, both theoretical and modelling analyses demonstrated that the fact that zonal wave patterns are preferred in the NH stratosphere may be partly attributable to the vertical curvature of the stratospheric zonal mean basic state. Keywords: planetary waves, stratosphere, troposphere, spherical double Fourier series, two-dimensional wavenumber (Published: 28 November 2014) Citation: Tellus A 2014, 66 , 25303, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.25303
Published: 2014

44. Summertime stationary waves integrate tropical and extratropical impacts on tropical cyclone activity.

Author: Zhuo Wang, Gan Zhang, Dunkerton, Timothy J., and Fei-Fei Jin
Subjects: STANDING waves, TROPICAL cyclones, WEATHER, TROPICAL conditions, SEVERE storms
Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most severe storm systems on Earth and cause significant loss of life and property upon landfall in coastal areas. A better understanding of their variability mechanisms will help improve the TC seasonal prediction skill and mitigate the destructive impacts of the storms. Early studies focused primarily on tropical processes in regulating the variability of TC activity, while recent studies suggest also some long-range impacts of extratropical processes, such as lateral transport of dry air and potential vorticity by large-scale waves. Here we show that stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere integrate tropical and extratropical impacts on TC activity in July through October. In particular, tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs), as part of the summertime stationary waves, are associated with the variability of large-scale environmental conditions in the tropical North Atlantic and North Pacific and significantly correlated to the variability of TC activity in these basins. TUTTs are subject to the modulation of diabatic heating in various regions and are the preferred locations for extratropical Rossby wave breaking (RWB). A strong TUTT in a basin is associated with enhanced RWB and tropical-extratropical stirring in that basin, and the resultant changes in the tropical atmospheric conditions modulate TC activity. In addition, the anticorrelation of TUTTs between the North Atlantic and North Pacific makes the TC activity indices over the two basins compensate each other, rendering the global TC activity less variable than otherwise would be the case if TUTTs were independent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Published: 2020
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45. Seasonality and El Niño Diversity in the Relationship between ENSO and Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity.

Author: YUMI CHOI, KYUNG-JA HA, and FEI-FEI JIN
Subjects: TROPICAL cyclones, TYPHOONS, EL Nino, OCEAN temperature, HUMIDITY, VORTEX motion
Abstract: Both the impacts of two types of El Niño on the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and the seasonality in the relationship between genesis potential index (GPI) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated. The ENSO-induced GPI change over the northwestern (southeastern) part of the WNP is mostly attributed to the relative humidity (absolute vorticity) term, revealing a distinct meridional and zonal asymmetry in summer and fall, respectively. The seasonal change in ENSO (background states) from summer to fall is responsible for the seasonal change in GPI anomalies south of 20°N (over the northeastern part of the WNP). The downdraft induced by the strong upper-level convergence in the eastern Pacific (EP)-type El Niño and both the northwestward-shifted relative vorticity and northward-extended convection over the southeastern part of the WNP in the central Pacific (CP)-type El Niño lead to distinct TC impacts over East Asia (EA). The southward movement of genesis location of TCs and increased westward-moving TCs account for the enhanced strong typhoon activity for the EP-type El Niño in summer. In fall the downdraft and anomalous anticyclonic steering flows over the western part of the WNP remarkably decrease TC impacts over EA. The enhanced moist static energy and midlevel upward motion over the eastern part of the WNP under the northern off-equatorial sea surface temperature warming as well as longer passage of TCs toward EA are responsible for the enhanced typhoon activity for the CP-type El Niño. It is thus important to consider the seasonality and El Niño pattern diversity to explore the El Niño-induced TC impacts over EA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Published: 2019
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46. The annual-cycle modulation of meridional asymmetry in ENSO’s atmospheric response and its dependence on ENSO zonal structure

Author: Malte F. Stuecker, Haiyan Li, Fei-Fei Jin, Andrew G. Turner, Nicholas P. Klingaman, and Wenjun Zhang
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, La Niña, Sea surface temperature, Anticyclone, Climatology, Anomaly (natural sciences), Ocean current, Multivariate ENSO index, Annual cycle, Atmospheric sciences, Pacific decadal oscillation, Geology
Abstract: Previous studies documented that a distinct southward shift of central Pacific low-level wind anomalies occurring during the ENSO decaying phase is caused by an interaction between the western Pacific annual cycle and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The present study finds that the meridional movement of the central Pacific wind anomalies appears only during traditional eastern Pacific El Niño (EP El Niño) events rather than in central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) events in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are confined to the central Pacific. The zonal structure of ENSO-related SST anomalies therefore has an important effect on meridional asymmetry in the associated atmospheric response and its modulation by the annual cycle. In contrast to EP El Niño events, the SST anomalies of CP El Niño events extend farther west toward the warm pool region with its climatological warm SSTs. In the warm pool region, relatively small SST anomalies are thus able to excite convection anomalies on both sides of the equator, even with a meridionally asymmetric SST background state. Therefore, almost meridionally symmetric precipitation and wind anomalies are observed over the central Pacific during the decaying phase of CP El Niño events. The SST anomaly pattern of La Niña events is similar to CP El Niño events with a reversed sign. Accordingly, no distinct southward displacement of the atmospheric response occurs over the central Pacific during the La Niña decaying phase. These results have important implications for ENSO climate impacts over East Asia, since the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific is an integral part of the annual cycle–modulated ENSO response.
Published: 2015

47. Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

Author: Guojian Wang, Wenju Cai, Matthew H. England, Michael J. McPhaden, Lixin Wu, Agus Santoso, Axel Timmermann, Fei-Fei Jin, Dietmar Dommenget, Mat Collins, Matthieu Lengaigne, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Eric Guilyardi, Ken Takahashi, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), University of Hawaii, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Coupled model intercomparison project, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Greenhouse warming, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Physical oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Pacific ocean, La Niña, Extreme weather, Oceanography, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, Ecosystem, 14. Life underwater, Weather patterns, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Extreme La Nina events occur when cold sea surface temperatures across the central Pacific Ocean create a strong temperature gradient to the Maritime continent in the west. This work projects an increase in frequency of La Nina events due to faster land warming relative to the ocean, and a greater chance of them occurring following extreme El Nino events. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Nino and La Nina, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1,2,3,4,5. The 1998–1999 extreme La Nina event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Nino event6 switched extreme El Nino-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4,7. During extreme La Nina events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8,9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Nino characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10,11,12, but how La Nina will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Nina events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Nino events are conducive to development of the extreme La Nina events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Nino events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.
Published: 2015

48. Understanding ENSO Diversity

Author: Sang-Wook Yeh, Julia E. Cole, Antonietta Capotondi, Eric Guilyardi, Benjamin Kirtman, Matthew Newman, Fei-Fei Jin, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Niklas Schneider, Pascale Braconnot, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Benjamin S. Giese, Jin-Yi Yu, Tong Lee, Boris Dewitte, Yan Xue, Andrew T. Wittenberg, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), LMS International [Leuven] (LMS), LMS International, Sun Yat-Sen University [Guangzhou] (SYSU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Oceanography [College Station], Texas A&M University [College Station], Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NCAS-Climate [Reading], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Unité de Mathématiques Pures et Appliquées (UMPA-ENSL), École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Institute of Earth Sciences [Tapei] (IES Sinica), Academia Sinica, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics [Boulder] (LASP), University of Colorado [Boulder], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon)
Subjects: Tropical pacific, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Range (biology), media_common.quotation_subject, Mode (statistics), Multivariate ENSO index, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Sea surface temperature, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Oceanography, Geography, Climatology, Spatial ecology, 14. Life underwater, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Diversity (politics), media_common
Abstract: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.
Published: 2015

49. Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

Author: Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Lixin Wu, Soon Il An, Wenju Cai, Seon Tae Kim, Eric Guilyardi, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Greenhouse warming, Southern oscillation, Climate change, Multivariate ENSO index, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Sea surface temperature, El Niño Southern Oscillation, El Niño, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Surface response, Environmental science, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The impacts of climate change on certain aspects of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been established. However, the change in sea surface temperature, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude, remained uncertain. Now, the sea surface response is shown to be time-varying, with an increasing trend to 2040 followed by a decreasing trend. The previous uncertainty is attributed to the expectation of unidirectional behaviour and unrealistic model representations.
Published: 2014

50. Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

Author: Matthew H. England, Guojian Wang, Simon Borlace, Michael J. McPhaden, Matthieu Lengaigne, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Matthew Collins, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Agus Santoso, Lixin Wu, Eric Guilyardi, Peter van Rensch, Fei-Fei Jin, Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Climate Change Research Centre [Sydney] (CCRC), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))
Subjects: Greenhouse warming, [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Surface warming, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Atmospheric sciences, Pacific ocean, Extreme weather, El Niño, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, Ecosystem, Weather patterns, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: International audience; El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as 'the climate event of the twentieth century', and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems, agriculture, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. ) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. ) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.
Published: 2014

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