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The sustainability of the beef industry has become a point of national interest, particularly the investment of land and water resources. Our objective was to estimate how much land and irrigation water are required to maintain a simulated Angus cow-calf operation in the North Central Great Plains (NCGP) for an average year. A stochastic model was used, which enabled consideration of biological variation. The model computed 100 iterations of a 24-year timeframe (1995–2018). The simulated herd had 100 breeding females with replacement heifers being retained annually. The nutrients required to maintain a body condition score 5 for each individual animal, adjusting for temperature and physiological state, were calculated. A stocking rate of 3.3 hectares (ha) per cow-calf pair and mature cow weight of 600 kg was set, which is representative of the NCGP. Replacement heifers were assumed to be 65% of mature cow weight and allotted 1.22 ha. Bred heifers were assumed to be 85% of mature cow weight and allotted 1.81 ha. The herd was assumed to be grazing from May 1 to October 31. A supplemented ration of 60% alfalfa and 40% corn was provided if an individual’s nutritional needs were not met. Animals were assumed to be delivered a base ration from November 1 to April 30, which consisted of 73% alfalfa, 19% wheat straw, and 8% corn. The amount of irrigation necessary to grow feed was determined by estimating evapotranspiration of each crop then subtracting the amount of precipitation during the growing season. Average crop yield was determined using county level data from the UDSA NASS to estimate how much land would be needed for feed production. Sustaining a 100 head cow-calf herd in the NCGP for an average year requires 103.5 million liters for irrigation, 1288.5 ha for crop production, 357 ha grazing land.

We develop a formalism for constructing stochastic upper bounds on the expected full sample risk for supervised classification tasks via the Hilbert coresets approach within a transductive framework. We explicitly compute tight and meaningful bounds for complex datasets and complex hypothesis classes such as state-of-the-art deep neural network architectures. The bounds we develop exhibit nice properties: i) the bounds are non-uniform in the hypothesis space, ii) in many practical examples, the bounds become effectively deterministic by appropriate choice of prior and training data-dependent posterior distributions on the hypothesis space, and iii) the bounds become significantly better with increase in the size of the training set. We also lay out some ideas to explore for future research., 16 pages, 2 figures

Canonical models of rational choice fail to account for many forms of motivated adaptive behaviors, specifically in domains such as food selections. To describe behavior in such emotion- and reward-laden scenarios, researchers have proposed dual-process models that posit competition between a slower, analytic faculty and a fast, impulsive, emotional faculty. In this paper, we examine the assumptions and limitations of these approaches to modeling motivated choice. We argue that models of this form, though intuitively attractive, are biologically implausible. We describe an approach to motivated choice based on sequential sampling process models that can form a solid theoretical bridge between what is known about brain function and environmental influences upon choice. We further suggest that the complex and dynamic relationships between biology, behavior, and environment affecting choice at the individual level must inform aggregate models of consumer choice. Models using agent-based complex systems may further provide a principled way to relate individual and aggregate consumer choices to the aggregate choices made by businesses and social institutions. We coin the term "brain-to-society systems" choice model for this broad integrative approach.

The method of moments in conjunction with the maximum entropy method of reconstructing density distributions is applied to the energy dependent neutron diffusion equation to solve for neutron flux within a critical assembly. The energy dependent neutron diffusion equation (EDNDE) is converted into a moment equation which is solved analytically for a bare spherical critical assembly of pure 235U in the radial direction. The normalized energy dependent neutron diffusion moments (NEDNDM) generated analytically is verified to NEDNDM, as calculated by Monte Carlo N Particle 5 version 1.40 (MCNP5) and Attila-7.1.0-beta version (Attila). The normalized NEDNDM are validated with the bare spherical critical assembly experiment, named GODIVA. The NEDNDM are then put into the maximum entropy method to solve for neutron flux within the two critical assemblies (100% 235U and GODIVA) and the neutron flux is verified with MCNP5 and Attila and validated with GODIVA. The analytic NEDNDM values fall between the NEDNDM from MCNP5 (lower bound) and Attila (upper bound). The error is taken to be relative to the Monte Carlo simulation. The error range is from 0% to 14%. The error range of the NEDNDM compared to NEDNDM from GODIVA is 0% to 24%. The verification and validation error of the maximum entropy method is 12% to 25% where MCNP5 is taken to be the comparison standard. The error range of the reconstructed flux validated with GODIVA is 0% to 10%. The error range of the neutron flux spectrum from MCNP5 compared to GODIVA is 0%-20% and the Attila error range compared to the GODIVA is 0%-35%. The method of moments coupled with the maximum entropy method for reconstructing flux is shown to be a fast reliable method, compared to either Monte Carlo methods (MCNP5) or 30 multienergy group methods (Attila) and to GODIVA the bare sphere critical assembly experiment.

Nonverbal indices of pain are some of the least researched sources of data for assessing pain. The extensive literature on the communicative functions of nonverbal facial expressions suggests that there is potentially much information to be gained in studying facial expressions associated with pain. Results from two studies support the position that facial expressions related to pain may indeed be a source of information for pain assessment. A review of the literature found several studies indicating that judges could make discriminations amongst levels of discomfort from viewing a person's facial expressions. Other studies found that the occurrence of a small set of facial movements could be used to discriminate amongst several levels of self-reported discomfort. However, there was no research directly addressing the question of whether judges ratings would vary in response to different patterns of the identified facial movements. Issues regarding the facial cues used by naive judges in making ratings of another person's discomfort were investigated. Four hypotheses were developed. From prior research using the Facial Action Coding System (FACS) (Ekman S. Friesen, 1978) a small set of facial muscle movements, termed Action Units (AUs), were found to be the best facial movements for discriminating amongst different levels of pain. The first hypothesis was that increasing the number of AUs per expression would lead to increased ratings of discomfort. The second hypothesis was that video segments with the AUs portrayed simultaneously would be rated higher than segments with the same AUs portrayed in a sequential configuration. Four encoders portrayed all configurations. The configurations were randomly editted onto video tape and presented to the judges. The judges used the scale of affective discomfort developed by Gracely, McGrath, and Dubner (1978). Twenty-five male and 25 female university students volunteered as judges. The results supported both hypotheses. Increasing the number of AUs per expression led to a sharp rise in judges' ratings. Video segments of overlapping AU configurations were rated higher than segments with non-averlapping configurations. Female judges always rated higher than male judges. The second study was methodologically similar to the first study. The major hypothesis was that expressions with only upper face AUs would be rated as more often indicating attempts to hide an expression than lower face expressions. This study contained a subset of expressions that were identical to ones used in the first study. This allowed for testing of the fourth hypothesis which stated that the ratings of this subset of expressions would differ between the studies due to the differences in the judgment conditions. Both hypotheses were again supported. Upper face expressions were more often judged as portraying attempts by the encoders to hide their expressions. Analysis of the fourth hypothesis revealed that the expressions were rated higher in study 2 than study 1. A sex of judge X judgment condition interaction indicated that females rated higher in study 1 but males rated higher in study 2. The results from these studies indicated that the nonverbal communication of facial expressions of pain was defined by a number of parameters which led judges to alter their ratings depending on the parameters of the facial expressions being viewed. While studies of the micro-behavioral aspects of facial expressions are new, the present studies suggest that such research is integral to understanding the complex communication functions of nonverbal facial expressions.

This study investigated the immediate and long term impact of a portable, behaviorally-oriented, in-service training program. The training program consisted of a site visit (pre-test), 5 day workshop (mid-test), 5 follow-up visits, and a termination visit (post-test). The termination visit occurred 6-8 weeks following the last follow-up. Each training program spanned approximately 8-9 months. The training package consisted of lectures, films or video-tapes, demonstrations, role-play, behavioral rehearsal, and homework. Major areas covered during the training were teaching techniques (specifically Discrete Trial Format teaching), program writing, language training, curriculum development, reinforcement principles, maintenance and generalization, behavior management and token economy. The training team was composed of a coordinator, psychologist, teacher and community nurse. Thirty-two direct service staff for severely handicapped clients served as trainees. These trainees were from training programs conducted in four communities in the Province of British Columbia from 1979-1981. Data on three dependent measures plus consumer satisfaction measures were gathered using a pre-mid-post institutional cycle design. The three dependent measures were behavioral terminology, Discrete Trial Format teaching and program writing. Consumer satisfaction data were collected at the completion of the workshop and at the termination visit. For the terminology and Discrete Trial Format teaching measures significant increases were found at mid-test and post-test in the trainees' scores and in the proportion of trainees exceeding pre-established criteria for these measures. No pre-test program writing data were available. There was a significant decrease in the program writing scores from mid to post-test. Consumer satisfaction data was uniformly positive at both measurement periods. The significance of these results are discussed in relation to previous research done in this area. Inferences are made about how factors such as trainee employment contracts, teacher schedules, and reinforcement schedules may have influenced the results. Problems in conducting this type of research under field conditions are identified and potential areas for further research are suggested.