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International audience; Sangay is one of the most active volcanoes in Ecuador, as it has been almost continuously erupting at least since the seventeenth century. However, because of its remote location and low associated risk to human population, little is known about its eruptions. Here we summarize Sangay's volcanic activity from January 2001 to May 2020, based on ground-based data, satellite-derived observations and chemical analysis of its erupted products. During the analyzed period, Sangay's activity changed from continuous to episodic, as revealed by seismic, thermal and ash emission data. We identified three main eruptive periods: the first, from 2001 to 2013, extruded a cumulative volume of 100 ± 50 million m3 of lava through long-lived activity; the second emitted 54 ± 27 million m3 in four short-lived episodes, which occurred once every year from 2015 to 2018; and finally, a third period since 2019, which has continuous but fluctuating intensity, and shows a significant increase in the extruded lava volume (172 ± 86 million m3 until May 31, 2020). Our results show a marked change in the eruption frequency and a significant increase in average discharge rate over time, although surface activity remained similar, with lava flows, small explosions and ash venting. We propose that three magmatic processes acted to explain the observed changes: between 2001 and 2013 the long-living low-intensity eruptions were promoted by buoyancy, while since 2019 similar but more intense activity was triggered by mass injections. In contrast, the episodic activity in between probably resulted from volatile exsolution due to crystallization (second boiling). Transitions between these three regimes are presumably the result of varying mass inflow rates. Our results provide insights into eruptive style transitions commonly observed at volcanoes of intermediate composition, such as Sangay, over a timescale of several years.

co-auteur étranger; International audience; The rise and fall of magma columns is a process commonly observed in volcanoes hosting lava lakes and serves as proxy of magmatic reservoir pressure and warning for potential eruptions. This dynamic process typically involves the filling and emptying of a “pit crater” -a cylindrical depression usually formed by one or more collapses of a structure lying above an emptied surficial reservoir. Between 2016 and 2020, the 300 m deep pit crater located within Nyamulagira volcano (Democratic Republic of Congo) underwent an unusual filling dynamic. In May 2019 while filled to about 90% the crater floor collapsed by 90 m within two months, followed by the rapid emergence of a sub-circular solidified block overlooking the crater rim in less than 6 months. Using numerical simulations of models based on thermal energy and constrained by multiparametric data, we account for the incremental filling of the crater by successive intra-crateric lava flows and the subsequent collapse of the crater floor. We further characterize this unconventional filling mode based on thermal budget considerations.

Description, Escalating CO2 emissions precede basaltic explosive eruptions on time scales of weeks to months., The ordinarily benign activity of basaltic volcanoes is periodically interrupted by violent paroxysmal explosions ranging in size from Hawaiian to Plinian in the most extreme examples. These paroxysms often occur suddenly and with limited or no precursors, leaving their causal mechanisms still incompletely understood. Two such events took place in summer 2019 at Stromboli, a volcano otherwise known for its persistent mild open-vent activity, resulting in one fatality and damage to infrastructure. Here, we use a post hoc analysis and reinterpretation of volcanic gas compositions and fluxes acquired at Stromboli to show that the two paroxysms were preceded by detectable escalations in volcanic plume CO2 degassing weeks to months beforehand. Our results demonstrate that volcanic gas CO2 is a key driver of explosions and that the preparatory periods ahead of explosions in basaltic systems can be captured by precursory CO2 leakage from deeply stored mafic magma.

In the satellite thermal remote sensing, the new generation of sensors with high-spatial resolution SWIR data open the door to an improved constraining of thermal phenomena related to volcanic processes, with strong implications for monitoring applications. In this paper, we describe a new hot-spot detection algorithm developed for SENTINEL-2/MSI data that combines spectral indices on the SWIR bands 8a-11-12 (with a 20-meter resolution) with a spatial and statistical analysis on clusters of alerted pixels. The algorithm is able to detect hot-spot-contaminated pixels (S2Pix) in a wide range of environments and for several types of volcanic activities, showing high accuracy performances of about 1% and 94% in averaged omission and commission rates, respectively, underlining a strong reliability on a global scale. The S2-derived thermal trends, retrieved at eight key-case volcanoes, are then compared with the Volcanic Radiative Power (VRP) derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and processed by the MIROVA (Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity) system during an almost four-year-long period, January 2016 to October 2019. The presented data indicate an overall excellent correlation between the two thermal signals, enhancing the higher sensitivity of SENTINEL-2 to detect subtle, low-temperature thermal signals. Moreover, for each case we explore the specific relationship between S2Pix and VRP showing how different volcanic processes (i.e., lava flows, domes, lakes and open-vent activity) produce a distinct pattern in terms of size and intensity of the thermal anomaly. These promising results indicate how the algorithm here presented could be applicable for volcanic monitoring purposes and integrated into operational systems. Moreover, the combination of high-resolution (S2/MSI) and moderate-resolution (MODIS) thermal timeseries constitutes a breakthrough for future multi-sensor hot-spot detection systems, with increased monitoring capabilities that are useful for communities which interact with active volcanoes.

Deciphering eruptive dynamics in near-real time is essential when dealing with hazard assessment and population evacuation. Recognition of specific patterns in time-series measured during volcanic activity may help decipher distinctive behavior at active volcanoes, providing insights into the underlying driving mechanisms. Multi-parameter data sets usually agree on the overall trend characterizing the temporal evolution of an eruption providing insights into the first-order eruptive dynamics. However, second-order variations detected in different data sets remain often poorly understood. The 2014-2015 Holuhraun eruption (Iceland) offers an excellent opportunity to investigate the dynamics of a long-lasting effusive eruption. We analyze the seismic tremor and the volcanic radiated power emitted by the lava field during the 6 months of the eruption using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). In both geophysical time-series, we identify periods from ∼5 to ∼32 days coinciding with periods of Earth tides. Here we show that ∼50% of both signals are composed of tidal periods suggesting that magma movements follow frequencies imposed by lunisolar forces within the crust and at Earth's surface.

We used a one-year long SO2 flux record, which was obtained using a novel algorithm for real-time automatic processing of ultraviolet (UV) camera data, to characterize changes in degassing dynamics at the Mt. Etna volcano in 2016. These SO2 flux records, when combined with independent thermal and seismic evidence, allowed for capturing switches in activity from paroxysmal explosive eruptions to quiescent degassing. We found SO2 fluxes 1.5−2 times higher than the 2016 average (1588 tons/day) during the Etna’s May 16−25 eruptive paroxysmal activity, and mild but detectable SO2 flux increases more than one month before its onset. The SO2 flux typically peaked during a lava fountain. Here, the average SO2 degassing rate was ~158 kg/s, the peak emission was ~260 kg/s, and the total released SO2 mass was ~1700 tons (in 3 h on 18 May, 2016). Comparison between our data and prior (2014−2015) results revealed systematic SO2 emission patterns prior to, during, and after an Etna’s paroxysmal phases, which allows us to tentatively identify thresholds between pre-eruptive, syn-eruptive, and post-eruptive degassing regimes.

The Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) showed a complex eruptive behaviour with periods of rapid and slow lava dome growth, punctuated by explosive activity. We reconstructed the weekly discharge rate average between 1998 and 2018 by means of satellite thermal data integrated with published discharge rate data. By using spectral and wavelet analysis, we found a multi-year long-, multi-month intermediate-, and multi-week short-term cyclic behaviour during the period of the investigated eruptive activity, as those of many others dome-forming volcanoes. We use numerical modelling in order to investigate the non-linear cyclic eruptive behaviour considering a magma feeding system composed of a dual or a single magma chamber connected to the surface through an elastic dyke evolving into a cylinder conduit in the shallowest part. We investigated the cases in which the periodicity is controlled by i) the coupled deep-shallow magma reservoirs, ii) the single shallow chamber, and iii) the elastic shallow dyke when is fed by a fixed influx rate or a constant pressure. The model outputs indicate that the observed multi-year periodicity (1.5–2.5 years) can be described by the fluctuations controlled by a shallow magma chamber with a volume of 20–50 km3 coupled with a deep reservoir of 500 km3, connected through a deep elastic dyke. The multi-month periodicity (ca. 5–10 months) appears to be controlled by the shallow magma chamber for the same range of volumes. The short-term multi-week periodicity (ca. 2.5–5 weeks) can be reproduced considering a fixed influx rate or constant pressure at the base of the shallower dyke. This work provides new insights on the non-linear cyclic behaviour of Fuego de Colima, and a general framework for the comprehension of eruptive behaviour of andesitic volcanoes.

Volcan de Fuego is a stratovolcano in Guatemala that has produced over 50 VEI ≥ 2 eruptions since 1524. After two decades of quiescence, in 1999 Fuego entered a new period of eruptive activity that continues until the present day, characterized by persistent Strombolian activity interspersed with occasional “paroxysmal” eruptions of greater magnitude, the most recent of which occurred in 2018. The land surrounding Fuego accommodates tens of thousands of people, so greater understanding of its eruptive behaviour has important implications for hazard assessment. Nevertheless, there is relatively little literature that studies recent (since 1999) activity of Fuego in detail. Using time-series analysis of remote sensing thermal data during the period 2000–2018 combined with recent bulletin reports, we present evidence for a new eruptive regime beginning in 2015. We find that this regime is defined by a greater frequency of paroxysmal eruptions than in previous years and is characterized by the following sequence of events: (i) effusion of lava flows and increase in summit explosive activity, followed by (ii) an intense eruptive phase lasting 24–48 h, producing a sustained eruptive column, continuous explosions, and occasional pyroclastic flows, followed by (iii) decrease in explosive activity. We discuss various models that explain this increase in paroxysmal frequency, and consider its implications for hazard assessment at Fuego. We advocate the pairing of remote sensing data with monitoring reports for understanding long-term changes in behaviour of poorly-instrumented volcanoes. The results that we present here provide a standard for informed assessment of future episodes of unrest and paroxysmal eruptions of Fuego.

Satellite-based surveillance of volcanic hot spots and plumes can be coupled with modeling to allow ensemble-based approaches to crisis response. We complete benchmark tests on an effusive crisis response protocol aimed at delivering product for use in tracking lava flows. The response involves integration of four models: MIROVA for discharge rate (TADR), the ASTER urgent response protocol for delivery of high-spatial resolution satellite data, DOWNFLOW for flow path projections, and PyFLOWGO for flow run-out. We test the protocol using the data feed available during Piton de la Fournaise’s April–May 2018 eruption, with product being delivered to the Observatoire du Piton de la Fournaise via Google Drive. The response was initialized by an alert at 19:50Z on 27 April 2018. Initially DOWNFLOW-FLOWGO were run using TADRs typical of Piton de la Fournaise, and revealed that flow at >120 m 3 /s could reach the island belt road. The first TADR (10–20 m 3 /s) was available at 09:55Z on 28 April, and gave flow run-outs of 1180–2510 m. The latency between satellite overpass and TADR provision was 105 minutes, with the model result being posted 15 minutes later. An InSAR image pair was completed two hours after the eruption began, and gave a flow length of 1.8 km; validating the run-out projection. Thereafter, run-outs were updated with each new TADR, and checked against flow lengths reported from InSAR and ASTER mapping. In all, 35 TADRs and four InSAR image pairs were processed during the 35-day-long eruption, and 11 ASTER images were delivered.

The application of thermo-rheological models to forecast active lava flow emplacement and quantify the eruptive parameters of older flow-producing eruptions has become a somewhat common tool over the last decade. With the modification and adaption of these models to modular computing languages, they are now easier, quicker, and being incorporated into studies of both terrestrial and planetary volcanism. These models, such as FLOWGO, rely on numerous assumptions and input parameters, some of which such as radiant emissivity are not well understood for molten materials. Without a well-grounded knowledge of how this parameter governs radiant cooling, physics-based estimates of temperature and models such as FLOWGO that track cooling with time will be in error. Here, we perform a detailed FLOWGO-based modeling study of lava flows emplaced at Tolbachik volcano during the 2012-2013 and the 1975-1976 eruptions. Specifically, we have modified the FLOWGO model to incorporate a two-component emissivity model linked to the fraction of molten lava and cooled crust. We focus first on the large Leningradskoye Flow emplaced at the start of the 2012 eruption, relying on data from numerous other orbital sensors including MODIS, ASTER and ALI to constrain some of the model input parameters. The two-component emissivity adaption produced better fits to the final flow length and was found to be most significant for flows with lower percentages of initial crust cover. We then applied these results and model constraints to the large Cone II flow formed in 1975, for which no satellite-based constraining data are available. By knowing the final flow dimensions coupled with the constraints determined from the previous modeling, we were able to estimate an effusion rate (700 m 3 /s), initial velocity (1.5 to 2 m/s) and final viscosity (10 8 Pa·s). Interestingly, a nearly identical model fit was achieved with a higher effusion rate (1250 m 3 /s) and correspondingly lower crust cover. In this scenario, modeling the two-component emissivity was critical for accurate model results. This represents the first study to implement two-component emissivity into thermo-rheological modeling of lava flows. The results show that this is an important factor for model accuracy and critical for large, higher effusion rate flows as well as for our understanding of older, “data-limited” flows on Earth and other planets.

The Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) shows a complex eruptive behavior, with periods of rapid and slow lava dome growth punctuated by explosive activity. We reconstructed the weekly discharge rate average between 1998 and 2018 by means of satellite thermal data integrated with published discharge rate data. By using spectral and wavelet analysis, we found a multiyear long-term, multi-month intermediate-term, and multi-week short-term cyclic behavior during the period of the investigated eruptive activity like that of many other dome-forming volcanoes. We use numerical modeling in order to investigate the nonlinear cyclic eruptive behavior considering a magma feeding system composed of a dual or a single magma chamber connected to the surface through an elastic dyke developing into a cylinder conduit in the shallowest part. We investigated cases in which the periodicity is controlled by (i) the coupled deep–shallow magma reservoirs, (ii) the single shallow chamber, and (iii) the elastic shallow dyke when it is fed by a fixed influx rate or constant pressure. Due to the limitations of the current modeling approach, there is no single configuration that can reproduce all the periodicities on the three different timescales. The model outputs indicate that the observed multiyear periodicity (1.5–2.5 years) can be described by the fluctuations controlled by a shallow magma chamber with a volume of 20–50 km3 coupled with a deep reservoir of ca. 500 km3, connected through a deep elastic dyke. The multi-month periodicity (ca. 5–10 months) appears to be controlled by the shallow magma chamber for the same range of volumes. The short-term multi-week periodicity (ca. 2.5–5 weeks) can be reproduced considering a fixed influx rate or constant pressure at the base of the shallower dyke. This work provides new insights on the nonlinear cyclic behavior of Fuego de Colima and a general framework for comprehension of the eruptive behavior of andesitic volcanoes.

Measuring the amount of magma intruding in a volcano represents one of the main challenges of modern volcanology. While in closed-vent volcanoes this parameter is generally assessed by the inversion of deformation data, in open-vent volcanoes its measurement is more complicated and results from the balance between the magma entering and leaving the storage system. In this work we used thermal and SO2 flux data, derived from satellite measurements, to calculate the magma input and output rates of Mt. Etna between 2004 and 2010. We found that during the analysed period more magma was supplied than erupted, resulting into an endogenous growth rate equal to 22.9 ± 13.7 × 106 m3 y−1. Notably, this unbalance was not constant in time, but showed phases of major magma accumulation and drainage acting within a compressible magma chamber. The excellent correlation with the inflation/deflation cycles measured by ground-based GPS network suggests the thermal, SO2 flux and deformation data, can be combined to provide a quantitative analysis of magma transport inside the shallow plumbing system of Mt Etna. Given the global coverage of satellite data and the continuous improvement of sensors in orbit, we anticipate that this approach will have sufficient detail to monitor, in real time, the endogenous growth associated to other world-wide open-vent volcanoes.

Flank instability and sector collapses, which pose major threats, are common on volcanic islands. On 22 Dec 2018, a sector collapse event occurred at Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait, triggering a deadly tsunami. Here we use multiparametric ground-based and space-borne data to show that prior to its collapse, the volcano exhibited an elevated state of activity, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island’s surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of its southwestern flank on a dipping décollement. Two minutes after a small earthquake, seismic signals characterize the collapse of the volcano’s flank at 13:55 UTC. This sector collapse decapitated the cone-shaped edifice and triggered a tsunami that caused 430 fatalities. We discuss the nature of the precursor processes underpinning the collapse that culminated in a complex hazard cascade with important implications for the early detection of potential flank instability at other volcanoes., On 22 December 2018, the western flank of Anak Krakatau collapsed into the sea of the Sunda Strait triggering a tsunami which killed approximately 430 people and displaced 33,000. Here, the authors show that Anak Krakatau exhibited an elevated state of activity several months prior to the collapse, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island’s surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of the southwestern flank.

Volcanoes are hazardous to local and global populations, but only a fraction are continuously monitored by ground‐based sensors. For example, in Latin America, more than 60% of Holocene volcanoes are unmonitored, meaning long‐term multiparameter data sets of volcanic activity are rare and sparse. We use satellite observations of degassing, thermal anomalies, and surface deformation spanning 17 years at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America and compare these data sets to ground‐based observations archived by the Global Volcanism Program. This first comparison of multisatellite time series on a regional scale provides information regarding volcanic behavior during, noneruptive, pre‐eruptive, syneruptive, and posteruptive periods. For example, at Copahue volcano, deviations from background activity in all three types of satellite measurements were manifested months to years in advance of renewed eruptive activity in 2012. By quantifying the amount of degassing, thermal output, and deformation measured at each of these volcanoes, we test the classification of these volcanoes as open or closed volcanic systems. We find that ~28% of the volcanoes do not fall into either classification, and the rest show elements of both, demonstrating a dynamic range of behavior that can change over time. Finally, we recommend how volcano monitoring could be improved through better coordination of available satellite‐based capabilities and new instruments.

The persistent open-vent activity of basaltic volcanoes is periodically interrupted by spectacular but hazardous paroxysmal explosions. The rapid transition from quiescence to explosive eruption poses a significant challenge for volcanic hazard assessment and mitigation, and improving our understanding of the processes that trigger these paroxysmal events is critical. Although magmatic gas is unquestionably the driver, direct measurements of a paroxysm’s gas flux budget have remained challenging, to date. A particularly violent paroxysmal sequence took place on Etna on December 2015, intermittently involving all summit craters, especially the Voragine (VOR) that had previously displayed no activity for several years. Here, we characterize the volcano’s SO2 degassing budget prior to, during and after this paroxysmal sequence, using ground-based (UV-Camera) and satellite (OMI) observations, complemented with ground-and space-borne thermal measurements. We make use of the high spatial resolution of UV-cameras to resolve SO 2 emissions from the erupting VOR crater for the first time, and to characterize temporal switches in degassing activity from VOR to the nearby New Southeast Crater (NSEC). Our data show that onset of paroxysmal activity on December 3–5 was marked by visible escalation in VOR SO 2 fluxes (4,700–8,900 tons/day), in satellite-derived thermal emissions (2,000 MW vs. ∼2–11 MW in July-November 2015), and in OMI-derived daily SO 2 masses (5.4 ± 0.7 to 10.0 ± 1.3 kilotonnes, kt; 0.5 kt was the average in the pre-eruptive period). Switch in volcanic activity from VOR to NSEC on December 6 was detected by increasing SO 2 fluxes at the NSEC crater, and by decaying SO 2 emissions at VOR, until activity termination on December 19. Taken together, our observations infer the total degassed SO 2 mass for the entire VOR paroxysmal sequence at 21,000 ± 2,730 t, corresponding to complete degassing of ∼1.9 ± 0.3 Mm 3 of magma, or significantly less than the measured erupted magma volumes (5.1–12 Mm 3 ). From this mismatch we propose that only a small fraction of the erupted magma was actually emplaced in the shallow plumbing system during (or shortly prior) the paroxysmal sequence. Rather, the majority of the erupted magma was likely stored conduit magma, having gone through extensive degassing for days to weeks prior to the paroxysm.

The 2014-2015 eruption at Holuhraun has produced more than 1.5 km 3 of basaltic magma and can be considered one of the major effusive events of the last two centuries in the world. During this eruption the MIROVA system (a volcanic hot-spot detection system based on MODIS middle infrared – MIR - data) has been used to detect and locate the active portions of the lava flow(s), and to measure the heat radiated by the growing lava field. According to these data the eruption was characterized by a slow decay of the radiant power, accompanied by a change in the lava transport mechanism that shifted from open channels, at the beginning of the eruption, to lava tubes, during the last months of activity. Despite the evident evolution of lava transport mechanism, we found that the overall decreasing trend of the thermal flux was mainly controlled by the exponential decline of lava discharge rates, while the increasing insulation of the flow field had a strong impact in transporting efficiently the lava at the distal flow front(s). Our results suggest the apparent time averaged lava discharge rates ( TADR ), derived from satellite thermal data, may fluctuate around the real effusion rate at the vent, especially in the case of large lava flows emplacing in nearly flat conditions. The magnitude and frequency of these fluctuations are mainly controlled by the emplacement dynamic, (i.e. occurrence of distinct major flow units), while the transition from channel- to tube-fed lava transport mechanism play only a minor role (±30%) in the retrieval of TADR using MIR data . When the TADR values are integrated to calculate erupted lava volumes, the effects of pulsating emplacement dynamic become smoothed and the eruptive trend become more clear. We suggest that during the Holuhraun ’s eruption, as well as during many other effusive eruptions, the MIR-derived radiant flux essentially mimic the overall trend of lava discharge rates, with only a minor influence due to the emplacement style and evolving eruptive conditions. From a monitoring and operational perspective, MIROVA demonstrates to be a very valuable tool to follow and, possibly, forecast the evolution of on-going effusive eruption.

During the emplacement of the 2014-2015 lava flow in Holuhraun (Iceland) a new code for the simulation of lava flows (MrLavaLoba) was developed and tested. MrLavaLoba is a probabilistic code which derives the area likely to be inundated and the thickness of the final lava deposit. The flow field in Holuhraun progressed through a fairly flat floodplain, and the initial limited availability of topographic data was challenging, forcing us to develop specific modeling strategies. The development of the code, as well as simulation tests, continued after the end of the eruption, and latest results largely benefitted from the availability of improved topographic data. MrLavaLoba simulations of the Holuhraun scenario are compared with detailed observational analyses derived from the literature. The obtained results highlight that small-scale morphological features in the pre- emplacement topography can strongly influence the propagation of the flow. The distribution of the volume settling throughout the extension of the flow field turned out to be very important, and strongly affects the fit between the simulated and the real extent of the flow field. The performed analysis suggests that an improvement in the code should allow adaptable calibration during the course of the eruption in order to mimic different emplacement styles in different phases.

The thermal signature of Aso Volcano (Nakadake) during unrest episodes has been analyzed by combining the MODIS-MIROVA data set (2000–2017) with high-resolution images (LANDSAT 8 OLI and Sentinel 2) and ground-based thermal observations (2013–2017). The site of major activity (crater 1) is located at the summit of the volcano and is composed by a fumarole field (located in the South Area) and an acidic lake (replaced by a Central Pit during Strombolian phases). The volcanic radiative power (VRP) obtained by nighttime satellite data during the reference period was mainly below 3 MW. This thermal threshold marks the transition from high fumarole activity (HFA) to Strombolian eruptions (SE). However, periods characterized by sporadic phreatic eruptions (PE, eventually bearing phreatomagmatic episodes), which is the prevalent phase during unrest episodes, exhibit very low VRP values, being around 0.5 MW, or below. The statistical analysis of satellite data shows that the transition from HFA to Strombolian activity (which started on August 2014 and ceased in May 2015) occurs when VRP values are above the cited 3 MW threshold. In particular during marked Strombolian phases (November–December 2014), the radiative power was higher than 4 MW, reaching peak values up to 15.6 MW (on December 7, 2014, i.e., 10 days after the major Strombolian explosion of November 27). Conversely, ground-based measurements show that heat fluxes recorded by FLIR T440 Thermo-camera on the fumarole field of the South Area has been relatively stable around 2 MW until February 2015. Their apparent temperatures were fluctuating around 490–575 °C before the major Strombolian explosive event, whereas those recorded at the active vent, named Central Pit, reached their maxima slightly above 600 °C; then both exhibited a decreasing trend in the following days. During the Strombolian activity, the crater lake dried out and was then replenished by early July, 2016. Then, volcanic activity shifted back to phreatic–phreatomagmatic and the eruptive cycle was completed. During this period, the MIROVA system detected very few thermal alerts and the ground-based measurements were fluctuating around 1 MW. The most violent explosion occurred on October 8, 2016, and within the following weeks measured VRP were moderately above 2 MW. This is coeval with a thermal increase at the fumarole field of the South Area, with temperatures well above 300 °C. Thermal monitoring at Aso Volcano is an additional tool in volcano surveillance that may contribute to near-real-time hazard assessment.

International audience; Many active European volcanoes and volcano observatories are island-based and located far from their administrative “mainland”. Consequently, Governments have developed multisite approaches, in which monitoring is performed by a network of individuals distributed across several national research centers. At a transnational level, multinational networks are also progressively emerging. Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island, France) is one such example. Piton de la Fournaise is one of the most active volcanoes of the World, and is located at the greatest distance from its “mainland” than any other vulnerable “overseas” site, the observatory being 9365 km from its governing body in Paris. Effusive risk is high, so that a well-coordinated and rapid response involving near-real time delivery of trusted, validated and operational product for hazard assessment is critical. Here we review how near-real time assessments of lava flow propagation were developed using rapid provision, and update, of key source terms through a dynamic and open integration of near-real time remote sensing, modeling and measurement capabilities on both the national and international level. The multi-national system evolved during the five effusive crises of 2014–2015, and is now mature for Piton de la Fournaise. This review allows us to identify strong and weak points in an extended observatory system, and demonstrates that enhanced multi-national integration can have fundamental implications in scientific hazard assessment and response during an on-going effusive crisis

Many effusive eruptions are characterized by effusion rates that decay exponentially with time, a trend which is generally ascribed to elastic relaxation of a deep magma chamber. Thermal emissions, detected by satellite during the A.D. 2014–2015 Barðarbunga-Holuhraun eruption (Iceland), indicate that the volume of the erupted magma and effusion rates followed an overall exponential trend that fits the observed major subsidence of the Barðarbunga caldera floor. This trend continued until a critical flow rate was reached. Hence, the subsidence slowed down and the eruption rapidly ceased, reflecting the ultimate closure of the magma path. We present a model of inelastic magma withdrawal that very closely reproduces all the observed phenomena and provides new insights into the caldera collapses and the driving pressure of other effusive eruptions.

Effusive eruptions at open-conduit volcanoes are interpreted as reactions to a disequilibrium induced by the increase in magma supply. By comparing four of the most recent effusive eruptions at Stromboli volcano (Italy), we show how the volumes of lava discharged during each eruption are linearly correlated to the topographic positions of the effusive vents. This correlation cannot be explained by an excess of pressure within a deep magma chamber and raises questions about the actual contributions of deep magma dynamics. We derive a general model based on the discharge of a shallow reservoir and the magmastatic crustal load above the vent, to explain the linear link. In addition, we show how the drastic transition from effusive to violent explosions can be related to different decompression rates. We suggest that a gravity-driven model can shed light on similar cases of lateral effusive eruptions in other volcanic systems and can provide evidence of the roles of slow decompression rates in triggering violent paroxysmal explosive eruptions, which occasionally punctuate the effusive phases at basaltic volcanoes.

Space-based thermal data are increasingly used for monitoring effusive eruptions, especially for calculating lava discharge rates and forecasting hazards related to basaltic lava flows. The application of this methodology to silicic, more viscous lava bodies (such as obsidian lava flows) is much less frequent, with only few examples documented in the last decades. The 2011–2012 eruption of Cordon Caulle volcano (Chile) produced a voluminous obsidian lava flow (~ 0.6 km3) and offers an exceptional opportunity to analyze the relationship between heat and volumetric flux for such type of viscous lava bodies. Based on a retrospective analysis of MODIS infrared data (MIROVA system), we found that the energy radiated by the active lava flow is robustly correlated with the erupted lava volume, measured independently. We found that after a transient time of about 15 days, the coefficient of proportionality between radiant and volumetric flux becomes almost steady, and stabilizes around a value of ~ 5 × 106 J m− 3. This coefficient (i.e. radiant density) is much lower than those found for basalts (~ 1 × 108 J m− 3) and likely reflects the appropriate spreading and cooling properties of the highly-insulated, viscous flows. The effusion rates trend inferred from MODIS data correlates well with the tremor amplitude and with the plume elevation recorded throughout the eruption, thus suggesting a link between the effusive and the coeval explosive activity. Modelling of the eruptive trend indicates that the Cordon Caulle eruption occurred in two stages, either incompletely draining a single magma reservoir or more probably tapping multiple interconnected magmatic compartments.

RED SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modelling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. During each day, presentations were given reviewing the state of the art in terms of (a) volcano hot spot detection and parameterization, (b) operational satellite-based hot spot detection systems, (c) lava flow modelling and (d) response protocols during effusive crises. At the end of each presentation set, the four groups retreated to discuss and report on requirements for a truly integrated and operational response that satisfactorily combines remote sensors, modellers and responders during an effusive crisis. The results of collating the final reports, and follow-up discussions that have been on-going since the workshop, are given here. We can reduce our discussions to four main findings. (1) Hot spot detection tools are operational and capable of providing effusive eruption onset notice within 15 min. (2) Spectral radiance metrics can also be provided with high degrees of confidence. However, if we are to achieve a truly global system, more local receiving stations need to be installed with hot spot detection and data processing modules running on-site and in real time. (3) Models are operational, but need real-time input of reliable time-averaged discharge rate data and regular updates of digital elevation models if they are to be effective; the latter can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community. (4) Information needs to be provided in an agreed and standard format following an ensemble approach and using models that have been validated and recognized as trustworthy by the responding authorities. All of this requires a sophisticated and centralized data collection, distribution and reporting hub that is based on a philosophy of joint ownership and mutual trust. While the next chapter carries out an exercise to explore the viability of the last point, the detailed recommendations behind these findings are detailed here.

Open-conduit volcanic systems are typically characterized by unsealed volcanic conduits feeding permanent or quasi-permanent volcanic activity. This persistent activity limits our ability to read changes in the monitored parameters, making the assessment of possible eruptive crises more difficult. We show how an integrated approach to monitoring can solve this problem, opening a new way to data interpretation. The increasing rate of explosive transients, tremor amplitude, thermal emissions of ejected tephra, and rise of the very-long-period (VLP) seismic source towards the surface are interpreted as indicating an upward migration of the magma column in response to an increased magma input rate. During the 2014 flank eruption of Stromboli, this magma input preceded the effusive eruption by several months. When the new lateral effusive vent opened on the Sciara del Fuoco slope, the effusion was accompanied by a large ground deflation, a deepening of the VLP seismic source, and the cessation of summit explosive activity. Such observations suggest the drainage of a superficial magma reservoir confined between the crater terrace and the effusive vent. We show how this model successfully reproduces the measured rate of effusion, the observed rate of ground deflation, and the deepening of the VLP seismic source. This study also demonstrates the ability of the geophysical network to detect superficial magma recharge within an open-conduit system and to track magma drainage during the effusive crisis, with a great impact on hazard assessment.

Soil CO 2 flux and 222 Rn activity measurements may positively contribute to the geochemical monitoring of active volcanoes. The influence of several environmental parameters on the gas signals has been substantially demonstrated. Therefore, the implementation of tools capable of removing (or minimising) the contribution of the atmospheric effects from the acquired time series is a challenge in volcano surveillance. Here, we present 4 years-long continuous monitoring (from April 2007 to September 2011) of radon activity and soil CO 2 flux collected on the NE flank of Stromboli volcano. Both gases record higher emissions during fall–winter (up to 2700 Bq * m − 3 for radon and 750 g m − 2 day − 1 for CO 2 ) than during spring–summer seasons. Short-time variations on 222 Rn activity are modulated by changes in soil humidity (rainfall), and changes in soil CO 2 flux that may be ascribed to variations in wind speed and direction. The spectral analyses reveal diurnal and semi-diurnal cycles on both gases, outlining that atmospheric variations are capable to modify the gas release rate from the soil. The long-term soil CO 2 flux shows a slow decreasing trend, not visible in 222 Rn activity, suggesting a possible difference in the source depth of the of the gases, CO 2 being deeper and likely related to degassing at depth of the magma batch involved in the February–April 2007 effusive eruption. To minimise the effect of the environmental parameters on the 222 Rn concentrations and soil CO 2 fluxes, two different statistical treatments were applied: the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and the Principal Component Regression (PCR). These approaches allow to quantify the weight of each environmental factor on the two gas species and show a strong influence of some parameters on the gas transfer processes through soils. The residual values of radon and CO 2 flux, i.e. the values obtained after correction for the environmental influence, were then compared with the eruptive episodes that occurred at Stromboli during the analysed time span (2007–2011) but no clear correlations emerge between soil gas release and volcanic activity. This is probably due to i ) the distal location of the monitoring stations with respect to the active craters and to ii ) the fact that during the investigated period no major eruptive phenomena (paroxysmal explosion, flank eruption) occurred. Comparison of MLR and PCR methods in time-series analysis indicates that MLR can be more easily applied to real time data processing in monitoring of open conduit active volcanoes (like Stromboli) where the transition to an eruptive phase may occur in relatively short times.

International audience; After 3 years of mild gases emissions, the Ubinas volcano entered in a new eruptive phase on September 2nd, 2013. The MIROVA system (a space-based volcanic hot-spot detection system), allowed us to detect in near real time the thermal emissions associated with the eruption and provided early evidence of magma extrusion within the deep summit crater. By combining IR data with plume height, sulfur emissions, hot spring temperatures and seismic activity, we interpret the thermal output detected over Ubinas in terms of extrusion rates associated to the eruption. We suggest that the 2013–2014 eruptive crisis can be subdivided into three main phases: (i) shallow magma intrusion inside the edifice, (ii) extrusion and growing of a lava plug at the bottom of the summit crater coupled with increasing explosive activity and finally, (iii) disruption of the lava plug and gradual decline of the explosive activity. The occurrence of the 8.2 Mw Iquique (Chile) earthquake (365 km away from Ubinas) on April 1st, 2014, may have perturbed most of the analyzed parameters, suggesting a prompt interaction with the ongoing volcanic activity. In particular, the analysis of thermal and seismic datasets shows that the earthquake may have promoted the most intense thermal and explosive phase that culminated in a major explosion on April 19th, 2014. These results reveal the efficiency of space-based thermal observations in detecting the extrusion of hot magma within deep volcanic craters and in tracking its evolution. We emphasize that, in combination with other geophysical and geochemical datasets, MIROVA is an essential tool for monitoring remote volcanoes with rather difficult accessibility, like those of the Andes that reach remarkably high altitudes.