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One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and preliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5 to 3 × 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 × 103 m3 s−1), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very little erosion resistance. With the current lake level, all three avalanche events result in inundation in Huaraz due to wave overtopping, and the resulting preliminary hazard map shows a total affected area of 2.01 km2, most of which is in the high hazard category. Lowering the lake has the potential to reduce the affected area by up to 35 %, resulting in a smaller portion of the inundated area in the high hazard category.

Debris thickness plays an important role in regulating ablation rates on debris-covered glaciers as well as controlling the likely size and location of supraglacial lakes. Despite its importance, lack of knowledge about debris properties and associated energy fluxes prevents the robust inclusion of the effects of a debris layer into most glacier surface energy balance models. This study combines fieldwork with a debris-covered glacier energy balance model to estimate debris temperatures and ablation rates on Imja–Lhotse Shar Glacier located in the Everest region of Nepal. The debris properties that significantly influence the energy balance model are the thermal conductivity, albedo, and surface roughness. Fieldwork was conducted to measure thermal conductivity and a method was developed using Structure from Motion to estimate surface roughness. Debris temperatures measured during the 2014 melt season were used to calibrate and validate a debris-covered glacier energy balance model by optimizing the albedo, thermal conductivity, and surface roughness at 10 debris-covered sites. Furthermore, three methods for estimating the latent heat flux were investigated. Model calibration and validation found the three methods had similar performance; however, comparison of modeled and measured ablation rates revealed that assuming the latent heat flux is zero may overestimate ablation. Results also suggest that where debris moisture is unknown, measurements of the relative humidity or precipitation may be used to estimate wet debris periods, i.e., when the latent heat flux is non-zero. The effect of temporal resolution on the model was also assessed and results showed that both 6 h data and daily average data slightly underestimate debris temperatures and ablation rates; thus these should only be used to estimate rough ablation rates when no other data are available.

Glacial-dominated areas pose unique challenges to downstream communities in adapting to recent and continuing global climate change, including increased threats of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can increase risk due to flooding of downstream communities and cause substantial impacts on regional social, environmental and economic systems. The Imja glacial lake (or Imja Tsho) in Nepal, which has the potential to generate a GLOF, was studied using a two-dimensional debris-flow inundation model in order to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed measures to reduce possible flooding impacts to downstream communities by lowering the lake level. The results indicate that only minor flood impact reduction is achieved in the downstream community of Dingboche with modest (~3 m) lake lowering. Lowering the lake by 10 m shows a significant reduction in inundated area. However, lowering the lake by 20 m almost eliminates all flood impact at Dingboche. Further downstream at Phakding, the impact of the GLOF is significant and similar reductions in inundation are likely as a result of lake lowering.

Original abstract: This paper studies the lake dynamics for avalanche-triggered glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range in Ancash, Peru. As new glacial lakes emerge and existing lakes continue to grow, they pose an increasing threat of GLOFs that can be catastrophic to the communities living downstream. In this work, the dynamics of displacement waves produced from avalanches are studied through three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of Lake Palcacocha, Peru, with an emphasis on the sensitivity of the lake model to input parameters and boundary conditions. This type of avalanche-generated wave is an important link in the GLOF process chain because there is a high potential for overtopping and erosion of the lake-damming moraine. The lake model was evaluated for sensitivity to turbulence model and grid resolution, and the uncertainty due to these model parameters is significantly less than that due to avalanche boundary condition characteristics. Wave generation from avalanche impact was simulated using two different boundary condition methods. Representation of an avalanche as water flowing into the lake generally resulted in higher peak flows and overtopping volumes than simulating the avalanche impact as mass–momentum inflow at the lake boundary. Three different scenarios of avalanche size were simulated for the current lake conditions, and all resulted in significant overtopping of the lake-damming moraine. Although the lake model introduces significant uncertainty, the avalanche portion of the GLOF process chain is likely to be the greatest source of uncertainty. To aid in evaluation of hazard mitigation alternatives, two scenarios of lake lowering were investigated. While large avalanches produced significant overtopping waves for all lake-lowering scenarios, simulations suggest that it may be possible to contain waves generated from smaller avalanches if the surface of the lake is lowered. Artículo en acceso abierto Estudia la dinámica del lago Palcacocha respecto a las inundaciones por desborde violento de lago glaciar (en inglés, Glacier lake outburst flood o GLOF) ocurridos en la cordillera Blanca en Áncash, Perú. Manifiesta que el surgimiento de nuevos lagos glaciares y el crecimiento de los lagos existentes representan una amenaza cada vez mayor que GLOF y que pueden ser catastróficas para las comunidades que viven aguas abajo.

Glacial retreat causes the formation of glacier lakes with the potential of producing glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Imja Lake in Nepal is considered at risk for a GLOF. Communities in the path of a potential Imja GLOF are implementing adaptation projects, yet no quantitative data or guidance is available to understand the benefits of these projects or how to weigh benefits against the cost of implementation. We develop and demonstrate a decision-making methodology for GLOF risk management, incorporating available scientific information and uncertainty. The methodology consists of (1) identifying flooding scenarios, (2) evaluating scenario consequences, and (3) performing an economic analysis of proposed adaptation projects. The methodology is applied to assess benefits in Dingboche of lowering Imja Lake by 3, 10 and 20 m. The results show that the baseline case (no lake lowering) has the lowest expected cost because of low valuation of agricultural land and homes in the literature. Nonetheless, the result is sensitive to changes in the analysis variables. We also found that lowering the lake by 10 or 20 m is efficient according only to the methodology used here; however, considering only direct economic damages and literature cost estimates, the costs outweigh the benefits for these projects.

Debris thickness is an important characteristic of debris-covered glaciers in the Everest region of the Himalayas. The debris thickness controls the melt rates of the glaciers, which has large implications for hydrologic models, the glaciers' response to climate change, and the development of glacial lakes. Despite its importance, there is little knowledge of how the debris thickness varies over these glaciers. This paper uses an energy balance model in conjunction with Landsat7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) satellite imagery to derive thermal resistances, which are the debris thickness divided by the thermal conductivity. Model results are reported in terms of debris thickness using an effective thermal conductivity derived from field data. The developed model accounts for the nonlinear temperature gradient in the debris cover to derive reasonable debris thicknesses. Fieldwork performed on Imja–Lhotse Shar Glacier in September 2013 was used to compare to the modeled debris thicknesses. Results indicate that accounting for the nonlinear temperature gradient is crucial. Furthermore, correcting the incoming shortwave radiation term for the effects of topography and resampling to the resolution of the thermal band's pixel is imperative to deriving reasonable debris thicknesses. Since the topographic correction is important, the model will improve with the quality of the digital elevation model (DEM). The main limitation of this work is the poor resolution (60 m) of the satellite's thermal band. The derived debris thicknesses are reasonable at this resolution, but trends related to slope and aspect are unable to be modeled on a finer scale. Nonetheless, the study finds this model derives reasonable debris thicknesses on this scale and was applied to other debris-covered glaciers in the Everest region.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure due to their potential to rapidly unleash stored lake water. The most common triggers of these GLOFs are mass movement entering the lake and/or the self-destruction of the terminal moraine due to hydrostatic pressures or a buried ice core. This study initially uses previous qualitative and quantitative assessments to understand the hazards associated with eight glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya that are widely considered to be highly dangerous. The previous assessments yield conflicting classifications with respect to each glacial lake, which spurred the development of a new holistic, reproducible, and objective approach based solely on remotely sensed data. This remote hazard assessment analyzes mass movement entering the lake, the stability of the moraine, and lake growth in conjunction with a geometric GLOF to determine the downstream impacts such that the present and future risk associated with each glacial lake may be quantified. The new approach is developed within a hazard, risk, and management action framework with the aim that this remote assessment may guide future field campaigns, modeling efforts, and ultimately risk-mitigation strategies. The remote assessment was found to provide valuable information regarding the hazards faced by each glacial lake and results were discussed within the context of the current state of knowledge to help guide future efforts.