Search

One classical version of cosmological argument, defended famously by Thomas Aquinas and Duns Scotus, deduces the existence of a First Cause from the existence of a particular sort of causal series: one that is 'essentially ordered'. This argument has received renewed defence in recent work by Feser (2013), Cohoe (2013), and Kerr (2015). I agree with these philosophers that the argument is sound. I believe, however, that the standard defence given of the ECA in these philosophers can be complemented by a formulation that appeals to the powers theory of possibility. This approach to possibility has been defended in recent years by, for example, Pruss (2002), Jacobs (2010), and Vetter (2015). In this article, I show how this modal theory allows us to defend the ECA in a way that is dialectically advantageous as well as clarifying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS‐E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non‐interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One‐Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1‐G) and HYCOM (E2.1‐H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, and SSP5‐8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high‐mitigation scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1‐H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5‐8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1‐G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) and E2.1‐H models (−0.94 × 106 km2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS‐E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low‐end scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century). Plain Language Summary: The projections of future climate change are uncertain because they are dependent on different possible scenarios of human‐caused emissions and their interaction with natural forcings, internal climate variability, and inter‐model differences. This paper presents the results of the climate model of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS‐E2.1, for the anthropogenically forced climate response for the twenty first century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The sensitivity of the model response to different magnitudes of anthropogenic forcings in the twenty‐first‐century scenarios were performed using two different versions for the atmospheric composition and two different ocean general circulation models. Compared to CMIP5 GISS‐E2 versions, the CMIP6 GISS‐E2.1 climate model shows a stronger warming by 2100 in comparable scenarios due to larger effective climate sensitivity and transient climate response. Both climate models with two different ocean components project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. Key Points: GISS E2.1 model with different configurations is used to carry out 134 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) experimentsGISS‐E2.1 climate model shows a stronger warming by 2,100 in comparable Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios in CMIP5 due to larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate responseBoth coupled models, E2.1‐G and E2.1‐H, project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100 with the largest decrease in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While social media has had profound effects in many realms, the theory and practice of negotiation have remained relatively untouched by this potent phenomenon. In this article, we survey existing research in this area and develop a broader framework for understanding the wider roles and effects of social media on negotiation. Through a series of detailed case studies, we explore how social media can drive important negotiations either off the rails or toward beneficial outcomes—and how savvy practitioners can harness this often‐neglected factor to their advantage, or else find themselves outmaneuvered by more digitally sophisticated parties. Applying the lens of the "3D negotiation" approach developed by Lax and Sebenius, we describe a number of potentially decisive roles that social media can play to enhance actions by negotiators "at the table," with respect to deal design, and "away from the table." In this 3D context, we show how social media can help negotiators learn about their counterparts (interests, perceptions, relationships, and networks), directly and indirectly influence the parties, mobilize supporters, and neutralize potential opponents. We show that being proactive—both in cultivating digital influence or allies and in building resilience to threats across online information ecosystems—can provide critical advantages for negotiators navigating a hyperconnected world. We develop a preliminary framework to help identify the full range of platforms, tools, and methodologies appropriate for the use of social media in negotiations, including network mapping software and open‐source intelligence techniques. Throughout our analysis, we stress the importance of ethical and privacy considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2) but warm less during recent decades due to a forcing reduction that is attributed to greater longwave opacity in the GISS‐E2.1 pre‐industrial simulations. This results in an atmosphere less sensitive to increases in opacity from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, demonstrating the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found previously in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin. Plain Language Summary: Measurements show clear evidence of warming over the twentieth century and up to the present day. Our anticipation of future change comes from computer models of climate. These are based upon well‐established physical principles like Newton's laws of motion and radiative transfer theory; the models are closely related to those used for weather forecasting. We can never predict the weather on a particular day, 50 years in the future, but we can calculate whether that future decade will be warmer than our present climate. Part of our confidence in such a forecast comes from testing a climate model's ability to reproduce warming and other changes measured over the past century. We use observations of atmospheric composition and the sunlight received by our planet to calculate how the model responds to their changes. The climate model of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS‐E2.1, closely follows changes measured in the ocean and atmosphere as the concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants rise. This agreement suggests that future warming by greenhouse gases will be reliably predicted by GISS‐E2.1. This suggests that the warming we already experience is due to our consumption of fossil fuels that has led to the increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past two centuries. Key Points: Tropospheric warming and ocean heat uptake by 2014 are smaller in GISS‐E2.1 and closer to observed trends than in its CMIP5 predecessorGISS‐E2.1 climate sensitivity is higher than in CMIP5 GISS‐E2, but forcing by greenhouse gases is smallerAtmospheric trends vary among model configurations with the storage of heat beneath the thermocline [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extracellular vesicles (EVs) have been implicated in a wide variety of biological activities, have been implicated in the pathogenesis of numerous diseases, and have been proposed to serve as potential biomarkers of disease in human patients and animal models. However, characterization of EV populations is often performed using methods that do not account for the heterogeneity of EV populations and require comparatively large sample sizes to facilitate analysis. Here, we describe an imaging-based method that allows for the multiplexed characterization of EV populations at the single EV level following centrifugation of EV populations directly onto cover slips, allowing comprehensive analysis of EV populations with relatively small samples. We observe that canonical EV markers are present on subsets of EVs which differ substantially in a producer cell and cargo specific fashion, including differences in EVs containing different HIV-1 proteins previously reported to be incorporated into pathogenic EVs. We also describe a lectin binding assay to interrogate EVs based on their glycan content, which we observe to change in response to pharmacological modulation of secretory autophagy pathways. These studies collectively reveal that a multiplexed analysis of EV populations using fluorescent microscopy can reveal differences in specific EV populations that may be used to understand the biogenesis of specific EV populations and/or to interrogate small subsets of EVs of interest within larger EV populations in biological samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2 × CO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7–3.1°C (depending on version) and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks. Plain Language Summary: This paper describes the latest iteration of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, which will be used for understanding historical climate change and to make projections for the future. We compare the model output to a wide range of observations over the recent era (1979–2014) and show that there has been a significant increase in how well the model performs compared to the previous version from 2014, particularly in the Southern Ocean, though some persistent biases remain. The model has a temperature response to the increase of carbon dioxide that is slightly higher than previous versions but is well within the range expected from observational and past climate constraints. Key Points: GISS‐E2.1 is an updated climate model version for use within the CMIP6 projectAtmospheric composition is calculated consistently in all model versionsResults demonstrate a significant improvement in skill in a climate model without changes to atmospheric resolution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observing atomic motions as they occur is the dream goal of ultrafast electron microscopy (UEM). Great progress has been made so far thanks to the efforts of many scientists in developing the photoemission sources and beam blankers needed to create short pulses of electrons for the UEM experiments. While details on these setups have typically been reported, a systematic overview of methods used to obtain a pulsed beam and a comparison of relevant source parameters have not yet been conducted. In this report, we outline the basic requirements and parameters that are important for UEM. Different types of imaging modes in UEM are analyzed and summarized. After reviewing and analyzing the different kinds of photoemission sources and beam blankers that have been reported in the literature, we estimate the reduced brightness for all the photoemission sources reviewed and compare this to the brightness in the continuous and blanked beams. As for the problem of pulse broadening caused by the repulsive forces between electrons, four main methods available to mitigate the dispersion are summarized. We anticipate that the analysis and conclusions provided in this manuscript will be instructive for designing an UEM setup and could thus push the further development of UEM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the Edward Snowden disclosures regarding the National Security Agency's surveillance activities under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), Congress reformed both the substantive FISA surveillance laws and the procedural rules of the FISA Court (FISC)--the court Congress established in FISA to adjudicate government surveillance requests--to better protect privacy interests and increase the representation of privacy interests before the court. Previously, the court very rarely heard opposition to the government's arguments supporting surveillance requests. The reform legislation--the USA FREEDOM Act--requires the court to hear from one of five pooled amici when it is presented with novel or significant interpretations of law. The statute also requires those pooled amici to support arguments that advance individual privacy and civil liberties. The statute, however, risks violating separation of powers principles if the amicus and FISC interpret the statute narrowly as preventing an amicus from advancing arguments that support intelligence collection or conflict with individual privacy interests. While Congress retains total authority to control the jurisdiction and procedures of the FISC, the judicial power inherent in any court includes the authority to decide the law, administer justice, and control the amicus process. By interfering with the court's ability to consider which arguments it hears from an amicus that the court has appointed to materially assist in deciding the law, the statute would violate the separation of powers doctrine. So, even if such a broad reading would render the amicus duty superfluous and insignificant, the court should interpret the amicus duty broadly to allow virtually any legal argument that the court deems helpful and appropriate. A broad interpretation would allow the court to fulfill its constitutional obligations while avoiding the need to declare the statute in violation of the separation of powers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photofield emitters show great potential for many single electron pulsed applications. However, for the brightest pulses >1011A/(m2 srV), our simulations show that Poisson statistics and stochastic Coulomb interactions limit the brightness and increase the energy spread even with an average of a single electron per pulse. For the systems, we study we find that the energy spread is probably the limiting factor for most applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a roundtable discussion hosted by Film studies lecturer Erika Balsom with Ben Cook, Lauren Howes, and Lori Zippay, who are Executive Directors of art studios LUX, Canadian Filmmakers' Distribution Centre (CFMDC), and Electronic Arts Intermix (EAI) respectively. They discussed topics such as positive impact of digitization on distribution organizations, problems faced while dealing the shift in technology, and issue of unauthorized distribution also known as piracy.

The ability to monitor and sense environmental conditions in real time over large areas is a difficult and expensive task, especially when it comes to monitoring in harsh environments. Whether it is monitoring suspension bridges that experience immense forces from storms and earthquakes for structural integrity, detecting noxious gases in manufacturing facilities, or making sure the vegetables on the supermarket shelf are still fresh and being kept at the correct temperature and humidity level, these sensors and sensor networks have the ability to greatly improve cognitive intelligence and knowledge of the environment around us, that is, as long as they come at the right price. Current methods for deploying large-scale sensor networks involve miles of cabling that source power and collect data, or battery operated wireless sensors, which pose a serious environmental risk with the disposal of billions of batteries every year. While these methods are necessary in some situations where real-time data or harsh environments prohibit manual monitoring of critical environment parameters, the cost, installation difficulty, and maintenance rarely justify their use over manual inspections and monitoring. This is where the concept of smart skins comes in. Smart skins are cognitive, intelligent skins that sense, wirelessly communicate, and, in the future, will be able to modify environmental parameters using simple passive RFID technology. These skins can be applied everywhere be it a shelf lining in a grocery store or the outside of a Boeing 787, all while maintaining an unobtrusive and lightweight form factor similar to the application of a decal sticker. Smart skins are zero-power devices meaning they scavenge their own energy using ambient electromagnetic, solar, thermal, mechanical, or RFID/Radar-based interrogation techniques. In short, smart skins could prove to be the ultimate sensing tool that could potentially allow for the mass implementation of perpetual wireless networks even in extremely rugged environments. The system overview of a conventional smart skin is shown in Figure 1, which shows a skin consisting of several types of sensors that can be uniquely identified in a sensing matrix, and an interrogation network that is used to poll/interrogate the sensors and relay the data back to a processing hub. This allows realtime knowledge of various sensed parameters, such as the stress gradients due to trucks passing over bridges, or of the propagation rate of a gas leak or fire within a building. The smart skin concept can also be extended to that of body-wearable skins for continuous monitoring and reporting of critical biosignals utilizing novel liquid antenna principles. Biocompatibility and wearability requirements further push the need for autonomous, self-powering sensors. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Global warming driven by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations is expected to cause wet regions of the tropics and mid to high latitudes to get wetter and subtropical dry regions to get drier and expand polewards. Over southwest North America, models project a steady drop in precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P−E, the net flux of water at the land surface, leading to, for example, a decline in Colorado River flow. This would cause widespread and important social and ecological consequences. Here, using new simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five, to be assessed in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report Five, we extend previous work by examining changes in P, E, runoff and soil moisture by season and for three different water resource regions. Focusing on the near future, 2021-2040, the new simulations project declines in surface-water availability across the southwest that translate into reduced soil moisture and runoff in California and Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and Texas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]