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Paper# 19576

The module, based on the research performed by the work package on “Transboundary Effects and Trade Flows” within the EUCalc project, aims at quantifying the transboundary effects of user-selected decarbonization pathways. To define decarbonization pathways at the sectoral and country/regional level, integration between this module (i.e. the GTAP-EUCalc CGE model) and individual EUCalc ‘core’ modules is necessary. This document presents this integration process, that uses data from EUCalc core modules as inputs into the CGE model runs on the one hand, and provides CGE model results to the TPE on the other hand. In particular, the conversion of individual EUCalc core modules’ highly detailed outputs to exogenous shocks for the GTAP-EUCalc model and the “closeness measure” developed to allow the user to visualize the trade effects of decarbonization pathways in the Transition Pathway Explorer are described.

We develop a version of the GTAP model/database (GTAP-EUCalc) specifically tailored to be able to run scenarios aiming at evaluating the transboundary effects of the lever results obtained from WPs 1-5 and to deliver these results as usable outputs by the EU Calculator. Transboundary effects include EU28+Switzerland trade balance, aggregated and for specific sectors, composition of intra-EU and extra-EU trade by MS, EU28+Switzerland carbon leakage.In this report, we describe in detail the specific version of the GTAP-E model and database developed for the EUCalc project, and a library of different GTAP-EUCalc pathways to be simulated using the GTAP-EUCalc model, and the types of results of which are to be plugged into the Transition Pathway Explorer.

This report describes presentations, discussions and lessons learnt during the EU Calculator Expert consultation workshop on transboundary effects, held on the 22nd of November, 2018. The three main topics of discussions were the representative scenarios to be formulated and simulated in the EUCalc transboundary effect module, the exploitation of the trade results in the Transition Pathway Explorer, and CGE implications of the macro-level development of trade and globalization.

This report documents the development of the baseline projection to 2050 for use in the CGE modelling work contained in WP7. The main purpose of the baseline construction is to establish a likely business-as-usual scenario towards 2050, against which the transboundary effects of alternative EU decarbonization pathways can be estimated. The main components of the baseline are annual GDP projections and associated drivers such as population, labor force, capital stock, and total factor productivities for individual countries including all EU Member States. The principal data sources are recent model-based projections, particularly the EU-Reference Scenario 2016 and various other projections related to the SSP2 scenarios. Additionally, this report contains a review of the existing modelling approaches towards baseline constructions and a discussion on how the baseline can be replicated/calibrated within the EUCalc framework. A brief review on the CGE model selection and on how to represent the alternative EU decarbonization pathways relative to the baseline in the chosen model is also offered. This report documents the development of the baseline projection to 2050 for use in the CGE modelling work contained in WP7. The main purpose of the baseline construction is to establish a likely business-as-usual scenario towards 2050, against which the transboundary effects of alternative EU decarbonization pathways can be estimated. The main components of the baseline are annual GDP projections and associated drivers such as population, labor force, capital stock, and total factor productivities for individual countries including all EU Member States. The principal data sources are recent model-based projections, particularly the EU-Reference Scenario 2016 and various other projections related to the SSP2 scenarios. Additionally, this report contains a review of the existing modelling approaches towards baseline constructions and a discussion on how the baseline can be replicated/calibrated within the EUCalc framework. A brief review on the CGE model selection and on how to represent the alternative EU decarbonization pathways relative to the baseline in the chosen model is also offered.