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Effective biodiversity conservation requires robust and transparent prioritization of management actions. However, this is often hampered by a lack of spatially‐explicit data on habitat variables and empirical data on the effect of management actions. Although approaches exist that integrate structured expert elicitation (SEE) with species distribution models (SDMs) to encode species responses across habitat gradients, difficulties remain in predicting management outcomes under different settings, at a region‐wide scale when key habitat covariates are not spatially explicit. Therefore, we developed an approach to integrate SDMs with SEE to capture expert understanding of likely outcomes of management actions for individual frog species, and use this to spatially predict the effect of management actions. We demonstrate our approach across approximately 4000 wetlands in greater Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. As a measure of management effectiveness, we used the change in predicted probability of occurrence of seven frog species at wetlands 10 years after conservation actions are implemented (or not implemented). Management effect was elicited from experts under six scenarios. Individual expert estimates were aggregated using generalized linear models that were then used to spatially predict expected management effects, and a measure of uncertainty in the prediction, at all wetlands. Predicted management effect was strongly influenced by species initial probability of occurrence, with enhancing aquatic and surrounding vegetation an effective action for most species. We discuss practical challenges and recommend solutions in the integration of SDMs and SEE for the spatial prediction of management effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Iran is one of the world's fish biodiversity hotspots. Most riverine fish species in this country are currently under threat by human activities. In addition to those threats, climate change is expected to alter rainfall and temperature regimes, imposing further limitations, particularly to endemic fishes. Therefore, understanding how these species respond to climate change is an important issue in the conservation of Iranian freshwater biodiversity.This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of 16 endemic fish species under two climate change scenarios (i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in river habitats of Iran in the 2050s and the 2080s. The analysis is conducted using the MaxEnt model. Seven environmental variables were used for modelling: maximum width, elevation, river slope, the basins occupied by the target species, average annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and the temperature difference between the coldest and hottest months of the year.The validation of the model for each species showed that AUC (area under the ROC curve) scores range from 0.87 to 0.99. Under optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios in the 2050s and the 2080s, species will face four different outcomes to their habitat range: reduction (three species), expansion (five species), reduction and expansion (seven species) and no change (one species).It is concluded that most species that are unique in their geographical area will face serious challenges from climate change. Delineating species range changes under climate change scenarios can help prioritise conservation measures for these valuable species. Considering our results, the translocation of species to new locations also should be investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, urban expansion and climate change interact to threaten stream ecosystems and are accelerating the loss of aquatic biodiversity. Waterway managers urgently need tools to understand the potential combined impacts of urbanization and climate change and to identify effective mitigating management interventions for protecting freshwater biota. We address this challenge using the semi‐aquatic mammal the platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) as a focal species. We developed high‐resolution environmental spatial data for stream networks and spatially explicit habitat suitability models (HSMs) to explore the impact of threats and to identify the combination of management actions most likely to maintain or improve habitat suitability over the next 50 years in greater Melbourne, Australia. We developed and evaluated platypus HSMs (males‐and‐females and females‐only) including validation using an independent environmental DNA data set. Platypus occurred more commonly in larger, cooler streams with greater catchment‐weighted discharge, following periods of greater stream flow. They were positively associated with near‐stream forest cover and negatively associated with annual air temperature and urban stormwater runoff. Extensive reductions in suitable platypus habitat are predicted to occur under urbanization and climate change scenarios, with the greatest threat expected from reduced streamflows. This emphasizes the importance of maintaining flow regimes as part of conserving platypus in the region; however, substantial additional benefit is predicted by concurrent riparian revegetation and urban stormwater management efforts (that also have the potential to contribute to the streamflow objectives). Provision of adequate streamflows in a future with increasing water demands and water security requirements will likely require creative integrated water management solutions. Our high‐resolution stream network and HSMs have allowed predictions of potential range‐shifts due to urban expansion and climate change impacts at management‐relevant scales and at the whole‐of‐landscape scale. This has enabled systematic strategic planning, priority action planning and target setting in strategic policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unreliable research programmes waste funds, time, and even the lives of the organisms we seek to help and understand. Reducing this waste and increasing the value of scientific evidence require changing the actions of both individual researchers and the institutions they depend on for employment and promotion. While ecologists and evolutionary biologists have somewhat improved research transparency over the past decade (e.g. more data sharing), major obstacles remain. In this commentary, we lift our gaze to the horizon to imagine how researchers and institutions can clear the path towards more credible and effective research programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The critically endangered golden sun-moth Synemon plana occurs in urban fringe areas of southeastern Australia that are currently experiencing rapid and extensive development. The urban fringe is a complex and uncertain environment in which to manage threatened species with the intersection of fragmented natural habitats, built environments and human populations generating novel, poorly understood interactions. In this context, management frameworks must incorporate ecological processes as well as social considerations. Here, we explore how biodiversity sensitive urban design might improve the fate of the golden sun-moth, and threatened species generally, in urban fringe environments. We: (i) developed an expert-informed Bayesian Belief Network model that synthesizes the current understanding of key determinants of golden sun-moth population viability at sites experiencing urbanizing pressure; (ii) quantified the nature and strength of cause-effect relationships between these factors using expert knowledge; and (iii) used the model to assess expectations of moth population viability in response to different combinations of management actions. We predict that adult survival, bare ground cover and cover of resource plants are the most important variables affecting the viability of golden sun-moth populations. We also demonstrate the potential for biodiversity sensitive urban design as a complementary measure to conventional management for this species. Our findings highlight how expert knowledge may be a valuable component of conservation management, especially in addressing uncertainty around conservation decisions when empirical data are lacking, and how structured expert judgements become critical in supporting decisions that may help ameliorate extinction risks faced by threatened species in urban environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topic of advocacy by scientists has been debated for decades, yet there is little agreement about whether scientists can or should be advocates. The fear of crossing a line into advocacy continues to hold many scientists back from contributing to public discourse, impoverishing public debate about important issues. We believe that progress in this debate is limited by a misconception about the relationship between scientific integrity and objectivity. We begin by unpacking this relationship and debunking three common misconceptions about advocacy by scientists: namely, that advocacy is harmful to scientific credibility, beyond the scope of science, and incompatible with science, which is value-free. We propose new ways of thinking about responsible advocacy by conservation scientists, drawing on practices from the health sciences, where researchers and professional bodies are empowered to act as health advocates. In so doing, we hope to open further space for conservation scientists to actively and legitimately engage in public debate about conservation issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluvial habitats are inherently variable. They are shaped by flow magnitude, frequency, timing and duration, by the effects of upstream and downstream features along flow paths and by bioclimatic processes and human activities in upstream contributing catchments. Managing freshwater ecosystems requires tools and data that effectively account for these multi-scale processes. We tackle these challenges in this analysis of the distribution of 17 native and alien fish species in south-eastern Australia. A fine-scale, stream-link-based GIS database comprising an extensive set of ecologically meaningful attributes at multiple scales was developed to characterise the multidimensional environmental space of freshwater biota. This article describes the methods and data required to construct such a database. Boosted regression tree models were employed to analyse relationships between species and 20 candidate environmental predictors. For some species, competitors/predators were also included as predictors. Models were evaluated from several viewpoints: the ecological plausibility and intuition arising from them, their ability to predict to river links within the training area and for 11 species for which data were sufficient, their ability to predict to an adjacent but geographically distinct region. Despite modest environmental contrasts in the study area, these data and species distribution models (SDMs) produced predictions with useful predictive ability and discriminatory power. Critically, predictors of distribution identified as important for the various species modelled were ecologically interpretable. Several – but not all – of the models tested for transferability also predicted distributions reasonably well in the adjacent region. The GIS stream database and SDMs have immediate applications, but also provide a valuable foundation for developing more sophisticated tools for management and conservation in Australian freshwater environments. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study examines the extent to which interactions among two common alpine/subalpine plant species and their neighbours at the Bogong High Plains in southern Australia are characterized by competition or facilitation. The two target species were Celmisia pugioniformis (Asteraceae) and Carex breviculmis (Cyperaceae). Biotic interactions were examined using vegetation removal manipulations over three growing seasons at five sites across the altitudinal range of tall alpine herbfield communities. Observations recorded growth and mortality. Results for C. pugioniformis clearly indicated facilitation as a dominant process across all sites and seasons. Plants that had their neighbours removed tended to perform worse than plants that had their neighbours left intact. Growth observations for Ca. breviculmis were less clear, but again suggested facilitation. Mortality was distinctly higher among Ca. breviculmis individuals that had their neighbours removed relative to those with neighbours left intact. Results collectively suggest the removal of neighbours acts to reduce growth and increase mortality in C. pugioniformis and Ca. breviculmis throughout the altitudinal range of tall alpine herbfields at the Bogong High Plains. Facilitative and competitive interactions need to be recognized in efforts aimed at mitigating climate change-associated impacts on the ecology of alpine plant communities. The extent to which biotic interactions may exacerbate or buffer abiotic change is difficult to predict, emphasizing the need for ecological monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]