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Abstract Background There is increasing perception that countries cannot work in isolation to militate against the threat of pandemic influenza. In the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) of Asia, high socio-economic diversity and fertile conditions for the emergence and spread of infectious diseases underscore the importance of transnational cooperation. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution and inequalities can help determine the need for, and inform decisions regarding, resource sharing and mobilisation. Methods We collected data on healthcare resources deemed important for responding to pandemic influenza through surveys of hospitals and district health offices across four countries of the GMS (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Vietnam). Focusing on four key resource types (oseltamivir, hospital beds, ventilators, and health workers), we mapped and analysed resource distributions at province level to identify relative shortages, mismatches, and clustering of resources. We analysed inequalities in resource distribution using the Gini coefficient and Theil index. Results Three quarters of the Cambodian population and two thirds of the Laotian population live in relatively underserved provinces (those with resource densities in the lowest quintile across the region) in relation to health workers, ventilators, and hospital beds. More than a quarter of the Thai population is relatively underserved for health workers and oseltamivir. Approximately one fifth of the Vietnamese population is underserved for beds and ventilators. All Cambodian provinces are underserved for at least one resource. In Lao PDR, 11 percent of the population is underserved by all four resource items. Of the four resources, ventilators and oseltamivir were most unequally distributed. Cambodia generally showed higher levels of inequalities in resource distribution compared to other countries. Decomposition of the Theil index suggests that inequalities result principally from differences within, rather than between, countries. Conclusions There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution within and across countries of the GMS. Most inequalities result from within countries. Given the inequalities, mismatches, and clustering of resources observed here, resource sharing and mobilization in a pandemic scenario could be crucial for more effective and equitable use of the resources that are available in the GMS.

Abstract Background Health care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics. Results The AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources. Conclusions The AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and illustrative information on health care resource capacities during future pandemics. The tool can inform both preparedness plans and simulation exercises and can help increase the general understanding of dynamics in resource capacities during a pandemic. The combination of a mathematical model with multiple resources and the linkage to GIS for creating maps makes the tool unique compared to other available software.

Abstract Background The probability of contracting malaria in a given individual is determined not only by the individual's characteristics, but also the ecological factors that characterize the level of human-vector contact in the population. Examination of the relationship between "individual" and "supra-individual" variables over time is important for understanding the local malaria epidemiology. This is essential for planning effective intervention strategies specifically for each location. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted, which followed a community-cohort of about 3,500 residents in seven hamlets along the Thai-Myanmar border between 1999 and 2006. Potential malaria determinants measured at different levels (temporal variables, individual variables, and hamlet variables) were incorporated into multilevel models to estimate their effects on an individual's risk of malaria attack. Results The monthly minimum temperature was significantly associated with the seasonal variation of malaria risk. An individual risk of malaria attack decreased by about 50% during the period that active surveillance was conducted; an additional 15% and 25% reduction of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax incidence, respectively, was observed after the use of artesunate-mefloquine combination therapy (ACT) for treatment of P. falciparum. Male children (age < 16 years old) were at highest risk of both P. falciparum and P. vivax attack. An increase in the hamlet's incidence of P. falciparum and P. vivax by 1 per 100 persons in a previous month resulted in 1.14 and 1.34 times increase in the risk of P. falciparum and P. vivax, respectively, among individuals in a particular hamlet. Conclusion In a small area with low malaria transmission intensity, the variation in mosquito abundance is relatively similar across the residential areas; incidence of malaria between hamlets, which reflects the community level of human infectious reservoirs, is an important predictor for the malaria risk among individuals within these hamlets. Therefore, local malaria control strategies should focus on interventions that aim to reduce the gametocyte carriage in the population, such as early detection and treatment programmes and the use of ACT for P. falciparum.

Abstract Background Clinical case treatment of malaria infections where Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax are sympatric has achieved effective reductions in P. falciparum prevalence and incidence rates, but has been less successful for P. vivax. The high transmissibility of P. vivax and its capacity to relapse have been suggested to make it a harder parasite species to control. Methods A clinical malaria case treatment programme was carried out over a decade in a Karen community composed of seven hamlets on the Thai-Myanmar border. Results From 1994 to 2004, prevalence rates of both P. falciparum and P. vivax decreased by 70–90% in six of the seven study hamlets, but were unchanged in one hamlet. Overall, incidence rates decreased by 72% and 76% for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively over the period 1999–2004. The age-incidence and prevalence curves suggested that P. vivax was more transmissible than P. falciparum despite a greater overall burden of infection with P. falciparum. Male gender was associated with increased risk of clinical presentation with either parasite species. Children (< 15 years old) had an increased risk of presenting with P. vivax but not P. falciparum. Conclusion There was a considerable reduction in incidence rates of both P. vivax and P. falciparum over a decade following implementation of a case treatment programme. The concern that intervention methods would inadvertently favour one species over another, or even lead to an increase in one parasite species, does not appear to be fulfilled in this case.

Background: Meningitis caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We evaluated the performance of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing with the GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay versus traditional approaches for diagnosing tuberculosis meningitis (TBM). Methods: Patients were adults (n = 37) presenting with suspected TBM to the Hospital Nacional Dos de Mayo, Lima, Peru, during 12 months until 1st January 2015. Each participant had a single CSF specimen that was divided into aliquots that were concurrently tested for M. tuberculosis using GeneXpert, Ziehl-Neelsen smear and culture on solid and liquid media. Drug susceptibility testing used Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT 960) and the proportions method. Results: 81% (30/37) of patients received a final clinical diagnosis of TBM, of whom 63% (19/30, 95% confidence intervals, CI: 44–80%) were HIV-positive. 22% (8/37, 95%CI: 9.8–38%), of patients had definite TBM. Because definite TBM was defined by positivity in any laboratory test, all laboratory tests had 100% specificity. Considering the 30 patients who had a clinical diagnosis of TBM: diagnostic sensitivity was 23% (7/30, 95%CI: 9.9–42%) for GeneXpert and was the same for all culture results combined; considerably greater than 7% (2/30, 95%CI: 0.82–22%) for microscopy; whereas all laboratory tests had poor negative predictive values (20–23%). Considering only the 8 patients with definite TBM: diagnostic sensitivity was 88% (7/8, 95%CI: 47–100%) for GeneXpert; 75% (6/8, 95%CI: 35–97%) for MGIT culture or LJ culture; 50% (4/8, 95%CI 16–84) for Ogawa culture and 25% (2/8, 95%CI: 3.2–65%) for microscopy. GeneXpert and microscopy provided same-day results, whereas culture took 20–56 days. GeneXpert provided same-day rifampicin-susceptibility results, whereas culture-based testing took 32–71 days. 38% (3/8, 95%CI: 8.5–76%) of patients with definite TBM with data had evidence of drug-resistant TB, but 73% (22/30) of all clinically diagnosed TBM (definite, probable, and possible TBM) had no drug-susceptibility results available. Conclusions: Compared with traditional culture-based methods of CSF testing, GeneXpert had similar yield and faster results for both the detection of M. tuberculosis and drug-susceptibility testing. Including use of the GeneXpert has the capacity to improve the diagnosis of TBM cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bovine enteroviruses (BEV) are members of the genus Enterovirus in the family Picornaviridae. They are predominantly isolated from cattle feces, but also are detected in feces of other animals, including goats and deer. These viruses are found in apparently healthy animals, as well as in animals with clinical signs and several studies reported recently suggest a potential role of BEV in causing disease in animals. In this study, we surveyed the presence of BEV in domestic and wild animals in Thailand, and assessed their genetic variability. Methods: Viral RNA was extracted from fecal samples of cattle, domestic goats, Indian bison (gaurs), and deer. The 5' untranslated region (5'UTR) was amplified by nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) with primers specific to BEV 5'UTR. PCR products were sequenced and analyzed phylogenetically using the neighbor-joining algorithm to observe genetic variations in regions of the bovine and bovine-like enteroviral 5'UTR found in this study. Results: BEV and BEV-like sequences were detected in the fecal samples of cattle (40/60, 67%), gaurs (3/30, 10%), and goats (11/46, 24%). Phylogenetic analyses of the partial 5'UTR sequences indicated that different BEV variants (both EV-E and EV-F species) co-circulated in the domestic cattle, whereas the sequences from gaurs and goats clustered according to the animal species, suggesting that these viruses are host species-specific. Conclusions: Varieties of BEV and BEV-like 5'UTR sequences were detected in fecal samples from both domestic and wild animals. To our knowledge, this is the first report of the genetic variability of BEV in Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. Methods and Findings: We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a "mild-to-moderate" pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as "avoidable" mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. Conclusions: The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The probability of contracting malaria in a given individual is determined not only by the individual's characteristics, but also the ecological factors that characterize the level of human-vector contact in the population. Examination of the relationship between "individual" and "supra-individual" variables over time is important for understanding the local malaria epidemiology. This is essential for planning effective intervention strategies specifically for each location. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, which followed a community-cohort of about 3,500 residents in seven hamlets along the Thai-Myanmar border between 1999 and 2006. Potential malaria determinants measured at different levels (temporal variables, individual variables, and hamlet variables) were incorporated into multilevel models to estimate their effects on an individual's risk of malaria attack. Results: The monthly minimum temperature was significantly associated with the seasonal variation of malaria risk. An individual risk of malaria attack decreased by about 50% during the period that active surveillance was conducted; an additional 15% and 25% reduction of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax incidence, respectively, was observed after the use of artesunate-mefloquine combination therapy (ACT) for treatment of P. falciparum. Male children (age < 16 years old) were at highest risk of both P. falciparum and P. vivax attack. An increase in the hamlet's incidence of P. falciparum and P. vivax by 1 per 100 persons in a previous month resulted in 1.14 and 1.34 times increase in the risk of P. falciparum and P. vivax, respectively, among individuals in a particular hamlet. Conclusion: In a small area with low malaria transmission intensity, the variation in mosquito abundance is relatively similar across the residential areas; incidence of malaria between hamlets, which reflects the community level of human infectious reservoirs, is an important predictor for the malaria risk among individuals within these hamlets. Therefore, local malaria control strategies should focus on interventions that aim to reduce the gametocyte carriage in the population, such as early detection and treatment programmes and the use of ACT for P. falciparum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical case treatment of malaria infections where Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax are sympatric has achieved effective reductions in P. falciparum prevalence and incidence rates, but has been less successful for P. vivax. The high transmissibility of P. vivax and its capacity to relapse have been suggested to make it a harder parasite species to control. Methods: A clinical malaria case treatment programme was carried out over a decade in a Karen community composed of seven hamlets on the Thai-Myanmar border. Results: From 1994 to 2004, prevalence rates of both P. falciparum and P. vivax decreased by 70-90% in six of the seven study hamlets, but were unchanged in one hamlet. Overall, incidence rates decreased by 72% and 76% for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively over the period 1999-2004. The age-incidence and prevalence curves suggested that P. vivax was more transmissible than P. falciparum despite a greater overall burden of infection with P. falciparum. Male gender was associated with increased risk of clinical presentation with either parasite species. Children (< 15 years old) had an increased risk of presenting with P. vivax but not P. falciparum. Conclusion: There was a considerable reduction in incidence rates of both P. vivax and P. falciparum over a decade following implementation of a case treatment programme. The concern that intervention methods would inadvertently favour one species over another, or even lead to an increase in one parasite species, does not appear to be fulfilled in this case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamics of dengue serotype 2 virus isolated from patients with different disease severity, namely flu-like classic dengue fever (DF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS) were studied in its mosquito vector Aedes aegypti. We compared isolate infectivity and vector competence (VC) among thirty two A. aegypti-viral isolate pairs. Mosquito populations from high dengue incidence area exhibited overall greater VC than those from low dengue incidence area at 58.1% and 52.5%, respectively. On the other hand, the overall infection rates for the isolates ThNR2/772 (DF, 62.3%) and ThNR2/391 (DSS, 60.9%), were significantly higher than those for isolates ThNR2/406 (DF, 55.2%) and ThNR2/479 (DSS, 54.8%). These results suggest that the efficacy of dengue virus circulation was likely to vary according to the combination between the virus strains and origin of the mosquito strains, and this may have epidemiologic implications toward the incidence of flu-like classic dengue fever (DF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The identification and characterization of the viruses of the genus Enterovirus in healthy and infected livestock, including cattle and goats, have been increasing. Enterovirus E (EV-E) and F (EV-F) are commonly found in cattle, whereas Enterovirus G (EV-G) is found in goats. In this study, molecular and phylogenetic analyses were performed to determine the prevalence of EVs in cattle and goat feces from the Kanchanaburi Province, Thailand. The presence of EVs in water samples and feces of other animals collected from the areas surrounding cattle and goat farms was also investigated. Using 5'-UTR real-time RT-PCR, EVs were detected in 39.5% cattle samples, 47% goat samples, 35.3% water samples, and one pool of chicken feces. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the presence of EV-E and EV-F in cattle, EV-E and EV-G in goats, and EV-F in water samples and chicken feces. The analysis of enteroviral VP1 sequences from cattle revealed that the EV-E genotypes circulating in the study region were EV-E1, with a possible new genotype that is closely related to that of EV33 E2. The analysis of enteroviral VP1 sequences from goat suggested the circulation of EV-G5 and a possible new genotype that is closely related to EV-G20. Sequence analyses also suggested that, although the VP1 sequences from goats were closely related to those of EV36 G, which were considered as porcine enterovirus, their 5'-UTR form a separated cluster with the sequences of sheep and goat origins, suggesting a new classification of the ovine/caprine38 specific enterovirus group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The epidemiology of malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion is complex and rapidly evolving. Malaria control and elimination efforts face a daunting array of challenges including multidrug-resistant parasites. This review presents secondary data collected by the national malaria control programs in the six countries between 1998 and 2010 and examines trends over the last decade. This data has a number of limitations: it is derived exclusively from public sector health facilities; falciparum-specific and then pan-specific rapid diagnostic tests were introduced during the period under review; and, recently there has been a massive increase in case detection capability as a result of increased funding. It therefore requires cautious interpretation. A series of maps are presented showing trends in incidence, mortality and proportion of cases caused by Plasmodium falciparum over the last decade. A brief overview of institutional and implementation arrangements, historical background, demographics and key issues affecting malaria epidemiology is provided for each country. National malaria statistics for 2010 are presented and their robustness discussed in terms of the public sector's share of cases and other influencing factors such as inter-country variations in risk stratification, changes in diagnostic approach and immigration. Targets are presented for malaria control and where appropriate for elimination. Each country's artemisinin resistance status is described. The epidemiological trends presented reflect the improvement in the malaria situation, however the true malaria burden is as yet unknown. There is a need for continuing strengthening and updating of surveillance and response systems.

This study was carried out from April 2005 to June 2006 to evaluate the recurrence of P. vivax malaria infection in relation to drug compliance along the Thai-Myanmar border in Ratchaburi, Thailand. Ninety-two patients with vivax malaria were sequentially assigned to 2 groups. Both groups received a standard dose of chloroquine (total dose = 2.5 g) for 3 days and primaquine (total dose = 210 mg) for 14 days. The experimental group received a full course of treatment using daily directly observed therapy (DOT) while subjects in the control group were given the medication with necessary instructions to take as self-administered therapy (SAT). Patients were followed up for 3 months on Days 14, 21, 28, 60 and 90. Five of 46 patients from the SAT group had recurrence of malaria on Days 21, 44, 60, 72 and 87. Recurrence was not observed among patients in the DOT group. Survival analysis also showed significant differences between the SAT and DOT groups (p <0.05). The study suggests patient compliance with the 14-day primaquine treatment with DOT improve the outcome of .vivax malaria treatment.