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A set of decadal simulations has been completed and evaluated for gains using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to dynamically downscale data from a global Earth system model and two atmospheric reanalyses. RASM is a fully coupled atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice regional Earth system model. Nudging to the forcing data is applied to approximately the top half of the atmospheric domain. RASM simulations were also completed with a modification to the atmospheric physics for evaluating changes to the modeling system. The results show that for the top half of the atmosphere, the RASM simulations follow closely to that of the forcing data, regardless of the forcing data. The results for the lower half of the atmosphere, as well as the surface, show a clustering of atmospheric state and surface fluxes based on the modeling system. At all levels of the atmosphere the imprint of the weather from the forcing data is present as indicated in the pattern of the annual means. Biases, in comparison to reanalyses, are evident in the Earth system model forced simulations for the top half of the atmosphere but are not present in the lower atmosphere. This suggests that bias correction is not needed for fully coupled dynamical downscaling simulations. While the RASM simulations tended to go to the same mean state for the lower atmosphere, there are a differences in the variability and changes of weather patterns across the ensemble of simulations. These differences in the weather result in variances in the sea ice and oceanic states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a comprehensive analysis of Arctic surface energy budget (SEB) components during atmospheric river (AR) events identified by integrated water vapor transport exceeding the monthly 85th percentile climatological threshold in 3-hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from January 1980 to December 2015. Analysis of average anomalies in SEB components, net SEB, and the overall AR contribution to the total seasonal SEB reveals clear seasonality and distinct land – sea – sea ice contrast patterns. Over the sea ice-covered central Arctic Ocean, ARs significantly impact net SEB, inducing substantial surface warming in fall, winter, and spring, primarily driven by large anomalies in surface downward longwave radiation. We find that ARs make a substantial relative contribution to the mean SEB in spring (32 %), exceeding their corresponding occurrence frequency (11 %). However, in other seasons, ARs contribute relatively less to the mean SEB than their frequency, indicating a diminished role compared to their occurrence frequency. Over sub-polar oceans, ARs have the most substantial positive impact on net SEB in cold seasons, mainly attributed to significant positive turbulent heat flux anomalies, with a maximum contribution to the mean SEB in spring averaging 65 %. In summer, ARs induce negative impacts on net SEB, primarily due to reduced shortwave radiation from increased cloud cover during AR events. Over continents, ARs generate smaller absolute impacts on net SEB but contribute significantly to the mean SEB in cold seasons, far surpassing their corresponding frequency, highlighting their crucial role in determining the net SEB over continents during cold seasons. Greenland, especially western Greenland, exhibits significant downward longwave radiation anomalies associated with ARs, which drive large net SEB anomalies and contribute >54 % to mean SEB, and induce amplified surface warming year-round. This holds significance for melt events, particularly during summer. This study quantifies the role of ARs on surface energy budget, contributing to our understanding of the Arctic warming and sea ice decline in ongoing Arctic amplification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a comprehensive analysis of Arctic surface energy budget (SEB) components during atmospheric river (AR) events identified by integrated water vapor transport exceeding the monthly 85th percentile climatological threshold in 3-hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from January 1980 to December 2015. Analysis of average anomalies in SEB components, net SEB, and the overall AR contribution to the total seasonal SEB reveals clear seasonality and distinct land - sea - sea ice contrast patterns. Over the sea ice-covered central Arctic Ocean, ARs significantly impact net SEB, inducing substantial surface warming in fall, winter, and spring, primarily driven by large anomalies in surface downward longwave radiation. We find that ARs make a substantial relative contribution to the mean SEB in spring (32%), exceeding their corresponding occurrence frequency (11%). However, in other seasons, ARs contribute relatively less to the mean SEB than their frequency, indicating a diminished role compared to their occurrence frequency. Over sub-polar oceans, ARs have the most substantial positive impact on net SEB in cold seasons, mainly attributed to significant positive turbulent heat flux anomalies, with a maximum contribution to the mean SEB in spring averaging 65%. In summer, ARs induce negative impacts on net SEB, primarily due to reduced shortwave radiation from increased cloud cover during AR events. Over continents, ARs generate smaller absolute impacts on net SEB but contribute significantly to the mean SEB in cold seasons, far surpassing their corresponding frequency, highlighting their crucial role in determining the net SEB over continents during cold seasons. Greenland, especially western Greenland, exhibits significant downward longwave radiation anomalies associated with ARs, which drive large net SEB anomalies and contribute >54% to mean SEB, and induce amplified surface warming year-round. This holds significance for melt events, particularly during summer. This study quantifies the role of ARs on surface energy budget, contributing to our understanding of the Arctic warming and sea ice decline in ongoing Arctic amplification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provide an annual cycle of the vertical thermodynamic and kinematic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in the central Arctic. A self-organizing map (SOM) analysis conducted using radiosonde observations shows a range in the Arctic ABL vertical structure from very shallow and stable, with a strong surface-based virtual potential temperature (θv) inversion, to deep and near neutral, capped by a weak elevated θv inversion. The patterns identified by the SOM allowed for the derivation of criteria to categorize stability within and just above the ABL, which revealed that the Arctic ABL during MOSAiC was stable and near neutral with similar frequencies, and there was always a θv inversion within the lowest 1 km, which usually had strong to moderate stability. In conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms, including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, and microwave radiometer, the radiosonde observations and SOM analysis provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric vertical structure and stability, as well as a variety of atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic features. A low-level jet was observed in 76 % of the radiosondes, with stronger winds and low-level jet (LLJ) core located more closely to the ABL corresponding with weaker stability. Wind shear within the ABL was found to decrease, and friction velocity was found to increase, with decreasing ABL stability. Clouds were observed within the 30 min preceding the radiosonde launch 64 % of the time. These were typically low clouds, corresponding to weaker stability, where high clouds or no clouds largely coincided with a stable ABL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric measurements taken over the span of an entire year between October 2019 and September 2020 during the icebreaker-based Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition provide insight into processes acting in the Arctic atmosphere. Through the merging of disparate yet complementary in situ observations, we can derive information about these thermodynamic and kinematic processes with great detail. This paper describes methods used to create a lower-atmospheric properties dataset containing information on several key features relating to the central Arctic atmospheric boundary layer, including properties of temperature inversions, low-level jets, near-surface meteorological conditions, cloud cover, and the surface radiation budget. The lower-atmospheric properties dataset was developed using observations from radiosondes launched at least four times per day, a 10 m meteorological tower and radiation station deployed on the sea ice near the research vessel Polarstern, and a ceilometer located on the deck of the Polarstern. This lower-atmospheric properties dataset, which can be found at 10.1594/PANGAEA.957760 (Jozef et al., 2023), contains metrics which fall into the overarching categories of temperature, wind, stability, clouds, and radiation at the time of each radiosonde launch. The purpose of the lower-atmospheric properties dataset is to provide a consistent description of general atmospheric boundary layer conditions throughout the MOSAiC year, which can aid in research applications with the overall goal of gaining a greater understanding of the atmospheric processes governing the central Arctic and how they may contribute to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provide a detailed description of the impact of thermodynamic and kinematic forcings on atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) stability in the central Arctic. This study reveals that the Arctic ABL is stable and near-neutral with similar frequencies, and strong stability is the most persistent of all stability regimes. MOSAiC radiosonde observations, in conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms, including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, microwave radiometer, and radiation station, provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric stability and various atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic forcings of ABL turbulence and how these relationships differ by season. We found that stronger stability largely occurs in low-wind (i.e., wind speeds are slow), low-radiation (i.e., surface radiative fluxes are minimal) environments; a very shallow mixed ABL forms in low-wind, high-radiation environments; weak stability occurs in high-wind, moderate-radiation environments; and a near-neutral ABL forms in high-wind, high-radiation environments. Surface pressure (a proxy for synoptic staging) partially explains the observed wind speeds for different stability regimes. Cloud frequency and atmospheric moisture contribute to the observed surface radiation budget. Unique to summer, stronger stability may also form when moist air is advected from over the warmer open ocean to over the colder sea ice surface, which decouples the colder near-surface atmosphere from the advected layer, and is identifiable through observations of fog and atmospheric moisture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative importance of changes in radiative forcing (downwelling longwave radiation) and mechanical mixing (20 m wind speed) in controlling boundary layer stability annually and seasonally at five study sites across the Antarctica continent is presented. From near-neutral to extremely strong near-surface stability, radiative forcing decreases with increasing stability, as expected, and is shown to be a major driving force behind variations in near-surface stability at all five sites. Mechanical mixing usually decreases with increasing near-surface stability for regimes with weak to extremely strong stability. For the cases where near-neutral, very shallow mixed, and weak stability occur, the wind speed in the very shallow mixed case is usually weaker compared to the near-neutral and weak stability cases while radiative forcing is largest for the near-neutral cases. This finding is an important distinguishing factor for the unique case where a very shallow mixed layer is present, indicating that weaker mechanical mixing in this case is likely responsible for the shallower boundary layer that defines the very shallow mixed stability regime. For cases with enhanced stability above a layer of weaker near-surface stability, lower downwelling longwave radiation promotes the persistence of the stronger stability aloft, while stronger near-surface winds act to maintain weaker stability immediately near the surface, resulting in this two-layer boundary layer stability regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provide a detailed description of the impact of thermodynamic and kinematic forcings on atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) stability in the central Arctic. This study reveals that the Arctic ABL is stable and near-neutral with similar frequencies, and strong stability is the most persistent of all stability regimes. MOSAiC radiosonde observations, in conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, microwave radiometer, and radiation station, provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric stability and various atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic forcings of ABL turbulence, and how these relationships differ by season. We found that stronger stability largely occurs in low wind (i.e., wind speeds are slow), low radiation (i.e., surface radiative fluxes are minimal) environments, a very shallow mixed ABL forms in low wind, high radiation environments, weak stability occurs in high wind, moderate radiation environments, and a near-neutral ABL forms in high wind, high radiation environments. Surface pressure (a proxy for synoptic staging) partially explains the observed wind speeds for different stability regimes. Cloud frequency and atmospheric moisture contribute to the observed surface radiation budget. Unique to summer, stronger stability may also form when moist air is advected from over the warmer open ocean to over the colder sea ice surface, which decouples the colder near-surface atmosphere from the advected layer, and is identifiable through observations of fog and atmospheric moisture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate MOSAiC) provide an annual cycle of the vertical thermodynamic and kinematic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in the central Arctic. A self-organizing map (SOM) analysis conducted using radiosonde observations shows a range in the Arctic ABL vertical structure from very shallow and stable, with a strong surfacebased virtual potential temperature (v) inversion, to deep and near-neutral, with a weak elevated v inversion. Profile observations from the DataHawk2 uncrewed aircraft system between 23 March and 26 July 2020 largely sampled the same profile structures, which can be further analyzed to provide unique insight into the turbulent characteristics of the ABL. The patterns identified by the SOM allowed for the derivation of criteria to categorize stability within and just above the ABL, which reveals that the Arctic ABL is stable and near-neutral with similar frequencies. In conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms, including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, and microwave radiometer, the radiosonde observations provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric stability and a variety of atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic features. The average ABL height was found to be 150 m, and ABL height increases with decreasing stability. A low-level jet was observed in 76% of the radiosondes, with an average height of 401 m and an average speed of 11.5 m s-1. At least one temperature inversion below 5 km was observed in 99.7% of the radiosondes, with an average base height of 260 m and an average intensity of 4.8 °C. The only cases without a temperature inversion were those with weak stability aloft. Clouds were observed within the 30 minutes preceding radiosonde launch 64% of the time. These were typically low clouds, and high clouds largely coincide with a stable ABL. The amount of atmospheric moisture present increases with decreasing stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes turbulent energy fluxes in the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) using measurements with a small uncrewed aircraft system (sUAS). Turbulent fluxes constitute a major part of the atmospheric energy budget and influence the surface heat balance by distributing energy vertically in the atmosphere. However, only few in situ measurements of the vertical profile of turbulent fluxes in the Arctic ABL exist. The study presents a method to derive turbulent heat fluxes from DataHawk2 sUAS turbulence measurements, based on the flux gradient method with a parameterization of the turbulent exchange coefficient. This parameterization is derived from high-resolution horizontal wind speed measurements in combination with formulations for the turbulent Prandtl number and anisotropy depending on stability. Measurements were taken during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in the Arctic sea ice during the melt season of 2020. For three example cases from this campaign, vertical profiles of turbulence parameters and turbulent heat fluxes are presented and compared to balloon-borne, radar, and near-surface measurements. The combination of all measurements draws a consistent picture of ABL conditions and demonstrates the unique potential of the presented method for studying turbulent exchange processes in the vertical ABL profile with sUAS measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the 42-year period (1979–2020) of satellite measurements, four major winter (December–March) polynyas have been observed north of Greenland: one in December 1986 and three in the last decade, i.e., February of 2011, 2017, and 2018. The 2018 polynya was unparalleled in its magnitude and duration compared to the three previous events. Given the apparent recent increase in the occurrence of these extreme events, this study aims to examine their evolution and causality, in terms of forced versus natural variability. The limited weather station and remotely sensed sea ice data are analyzed combining with output from the fully coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), including one hindcast and two ensemble simulations. We found that neither the accompanying anomalous warm surface air intrusion nor the ocean below had an impact (i.e., no significant ice melting) on the evolution of the observed winter open-water episodes in the region. Instead, the extreme atmospheric wind forcing resulted in greater sea ice deformation and transport offshore, accounting for the majority of sea ice loss in all four polynyas. Our analysis suggests that strong southerly winds (i.e., northward wind with speeds greater than 10 m s -1) blowing persistently over the study region for at least 2 d or more were required over the study region to mechanically redistribute some of the thickest Arctic sea ice out of the region and thus to create open-water areas (i.e., a latent heat polynya). To assess the role of internal variability versus external forcing of such events, we carried out and examined results from the two RASM ensembles dynamically downscaled with output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) simulations. Out of 100 winters in each of the two ensembles (initialized 30 years apart: one in December 1985 and another in December 2015), 17 and 16 winter polynyas were produced north of Greenland, respectively. The frequency of polynya occurrence had no apparent sensitivity to the initial sea ice thickness in the study area pointing to internal variability of atmospheric forcing as a dominant cause of winter polynyas north of Greenland. We assert that dynamical downscaling using a high-resolution regional climate model offers a robust tool for process-level examination in space and time, synthesis with limited observations, and probabilistic forecasts of Arctic events, such as the ones being investigated here and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations at McMurdo Station, Antarctica from 24 November 2015 through 3 January 2017 were used to characterize the physical relationships between boundary layer stability and atmospheric state and fluxes. The basis of this analysis was self‐organizing maps (SOMs), a neural network algorithm, used to identify the range of potential temperature profiles present in the twice‐daily radiosonde data during the ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) campaign. The SOM identified profiles ranging from strongly stable to weakly stable regimes over the lowest 500 m of the atmosphere. It was found that in the winter (MJJA), moderate and strongly stable regimes occur most frequently (61%), while weakly stable regimes dominate in the summer (DJ, 83.4%). The mechanisms responsible for the dominance of different stability regimes in each season were analyzed to determine why these regimes occur with varying frequency throughout the year. This analysis found that wind speed variations and radiative cooling are responsible for the stability observed in the winter, radiative warming, as well as weaker wind speeds, are responsible for summer weak stability, and stability variations in the transition seasons (FMA, SON) are characterized by a change in sign of net radiation with increasing stability, as wind speed changes little across stability regimes. Low‐level jets were observed to occur about 50% of the time below areas of enhanced stability aloft and were observed most frequently in the transition seasons. The boundary layer depth, as determined by the Bulk Richardson number, was found to decrease with increasing stability. Key Points: Self‐organizing maps are used to examine the range of boundary layer conditions at McMurdo Station, AntarcticaA strong seasonal cycle of boundary layer stability regimes exists, forced by varying net radiation and wind speedLow‐level jets occur about 50% of the time below areas of enhanced stability aloft [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface, upper‐air, and radar observations are used to assess the performance of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in simulating the mesoscale aspects of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica that spanned January 16–20, 2016. The observations, collected during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), provide a unique dataset for evaluating AMPS, especially the radar observations that facilitate a three‐dimensional depiction of winds and precipitation. Comparisons of AMPS forecast data with surface meteorology, balloon‐sounding, and profiling radar observations at and above sites near McMurdo Station reveal a mixture of similarities and differences. A generally southerly flow is evident at low levels in both the AMPS simulations and observed Doppler radial velocities. AMPS winds are comparable to those observed at the surface and aloft in terms of magnitude, direction, and timing but the strongest simulated southerly flow is displaced eastward relative to the observations. AMPS‐simulated reflectivity over the broader Ross Island region is more limited in areal extent and smaller in magnitude than observed by a scanning Doppler radar. Three episodes of surface precipitation are observed near McMurdo Station over the five‐day event with peak rates of ∼3 mm h−1 and a total accumulation of ∼22 mm. However, AMPS produces no surface precipitation at that location over the five‐day event due to a low‐level dry bias in the forecasts. The results show the first observationally based three‐dimensional understanding of meteorology in the Ross Island region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the winter of 2019/2020, as the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) project started its work, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) experienced some of its largest shifts, ranging from a highly negative index in November 2019 to an extremely positive index during January–February–March (JFM) 2020. The permanent positive AO phase for the 3 months of JFM 2020 was accompanied by a prevailing positive phase of the Arctic Dipole (AD) pattern. Here we analyze the sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution based on CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite-derived data augmented with results from the hindcast simulation by the fully coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) from November 2019 through March 2020. A notable result of the positive AO phase during JFM 2020 was large SIT anomalies of up to 1.3 m that emerged in the Barents Sea (BS), along the northeastern Canadian coast and in parts of the central Arctic Ocean. These anomalies appear to be driven by nonlinear interactions between thermodynamic and dynamic processes. In particular, in the Barents and Kara seas (BKS), they are a result of enhanced ice growth connected with low-temperature anomalies and the consequence of intensified atmospherically driven sea ice transport and deformations (i.e., ice divergence and shear) in this area. The Davies Strait, the east coast of Greenland and the BS regions are characterized by convergence and divergence changes connected with thinner sea ice at the ice borders along with an enhanced impact of atmospheric wind forcing. Low-pressure anomalies that developed over the eastern Arctic during JFM 2020 increased northerly winds from the cold Arctic Ocean to the BS and accelerated the southward drift of the MOSAiC ice floe. The satellite-derived and simulated sea ice velocity anomalies, which compared well during JFM 2020, indicate a strong acceleration of the Transpolar Drift relative to the mean for the past decade, with intensified speeds of up to 6 km d -1. As a consequence, sea ice transport and deformations driven by atmospheric surface wind forcing accounted for the bulk of the SIT anomalies, especially in January 2020 and February 2020. RASM intra-annual ensemble forecast simulations with 30 ensemble members forced with different atmospheric boundary conditions from 1 November 2019 through 30 April 2020 show a pronounced internal variability in the sea ice volume, driven by thermodynamic ice-growth and ice-melt processes and the impact of dynamic surface winds on sea ice formation and deformation. A comparison of the respective SIT distributions and turbulent heat fluxes during the positive AO phase in JFM 2020 and the negative AO phase in JFM 2010 corroborates the conclusion that winter sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean can be significantly altered by AO variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between January 2012 and June 2017 a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS), known as the Small Unmanned Meteorological Observer (SUMO), was used to observe the state of the atmospheric boundary layer in the Antarctic. During six Antarctic field campaigns, 116 SUMO flights were completed. These flights took place during all seasons over both permanent ice and ice-free locations on the Antarctic continent and over sea ice in the western Ross Sea. Sampling was completed during spiral ascent and descent flight paths that observed the temperature, humidity, pressure and wind up to 1000 m above ground level and sampled the entire depth of the atmospheric boundary layer, as well as portions of the free atmosphere above the boundary layer. A wide variety of boundary layer states were observed, including very shallow, strongly stable conditions during the Antarctic winter and deep, convective conditions over ice-free locations in the summer. The Antarctic atmospheric boundary layer data collected by the SUMO sUAS, described in this paper, can be retrieved from the United States Antarctic Program Data Center (https://www.usap-dc.org , last access: 8 March 2021). The data for all flights conducted on the continent are available at 10.15784/601054 (Cassano, 2017), and data from the Ross Sea flights are available at 10.15784/601191 (Cassano, 2019). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]