Search

Small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUxS) are now being routinely used not only for sampling atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) processes and land-atmosphere interactions but also have significant potential to improve weather forecasting at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). In the present study, we used observations obtained from a Meteomatics Meteodrone SSE sUxS flown on 31 days between 20 August and 10 December 2020 near Oliver Springs, Tennessee, located 35 km northwest of Knoxville, Tennessee. We flew the sUxS up to 700 m above ground level, starting around sunrise and continuing every half hour until 3.5-4.0 hours past sunrise under synoptically quiescent, fair weather conditions. These datasets were provided in real time to the local NWS WFO in Morristown, Tennessee and used by forecasters there to assist with short-term operational forecasting needs. The sUxS profiles also provided finescale details on the early-morning transition over complex terrain and how this evolution varied during the late summer to winter period, which can be used to support the initialization of numerical weather prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) has long been used to represent surface–atmosphere exchange in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, recent work has shown that bulk Richardson (Rib) parameterizations, rather than traditional MOST formulations, better represent near-surface wind, temperature, and moisture gradients. So far, this work has only been applied to unstable atmospheric regimes. In this study, we extended Rib parameterizations to stable regimes and developed parameterizations for the friction velocity (u*), sensible heat flux (H), and latent heat flux (E) using datasets from the Land-Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE). We tested our new Rib parameterizations using datasets from the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment-Southeast (VORTEX-SE) and compared the new Rib parameterizations with traditional MOST parameterizations and MOST parameterizations obtained using the LAFE datasets. We found that fitting coefficients in the MOST parameterizations developed from LAFE datasets differed from the fitting coefficients in classical MOST parameterizations which we attributed to the land surface heterogeneity present in the LAFE domain. Regardless, the new Rib parameterizations performed just as well as, and in some instances better than, the classical MOST parameterizations and the MOST parameterizations developed from the LAFE datasets. The improvement was most evident for H, particularly for H under unstable conditions, which was based on a better 1:1 relationship between the parameterized and observed values. These findings provide motivation to transition away from MOST and to implement bulk Richardson parameterizations into NWP models to represent surface–atmosphere exchange. Significance Statement: Models used to forecast the weather represent physical processes occurring in Earth's atmosphere using complex mathematical relationships. Many weather models use an approach developed in the 1950s referred to as Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, or MOST, to determine how heat, moisture, and wind change vertically above the land surface. However, MOST limitations are well known within the scientific community. We implemented a method different from MOST called the bulk Richardson approach. We found the bulk Richardson approach generally yielded predictions of how heat, moisture, and wind change with height near the ground that were just as good as, and in some instances better than, predictions of these quantities obtained using MOST. This result motivates us to consider implementing the bulk Richardson approach into weather models, as doing so is expected to lead to their improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since drought and excessive rainfall can have significant socioeconomic impacts, it is important to have accurate high-resolution gridded datasets that can help improve analysis and forecasting of these conditions. One such widely used dataset is the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). PRISM uses a digital elevation model (DEM) to obtain gridded elevation analyses and then uses a regression analysis along with approximately 15 000 surface precipitation measurements to produce a 4-km resolution daily precipitation product over the conterminous United States. The U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) consists of 114 stations that take highly accurate meteorological measurements across all regions of the United States. A comparison between the USCRN and PRISM was performed using data from 2006 to 2018. There were good comparisons between the two datasets across nearly all seasons and regions; most mean daily differences were ,1 mm, with most absolute daily differences ;5 mm. The most general characteristics were for a net dry bias in the PRISM data in the Southwest and a net moist bias in the southern United States. Verifying the PRISM dataset provides us with confidence it can be used with estimates of evapotranspiration, highresolution gridded soil properties, and vegetation datasets to produce a daily gridded soil moisture product for operational use in the analyses and prediction of drought and excessive soil moisture conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of near-surface vertical wind profiles and vertical momentum fluxes obtained from a Doppler lidar and instrumented towers deployed during VORTEX-SE in the spring of 2017 are analyzed. In particular, departures from the predictions of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) are documented on thunderstorm days, both in the warm air masses ahead of storms and within the cool outflow of storms, where MOST assumptions (e.g., horizontal homogeneity and a steady state) are least credible. In these regions, it is found that the nondimensional vertical wind shear near the surface commonly exceeds predictions by MOST. The departures from MOST have implications for the specification of the lower boundary condition in numerical simulations of convective storms. Documenting departures from MOST is a necessary first-step toward improving the lower boundary condition and parameterization of near-surface turbulence ("wall models") in storm simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model became operational at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2014 but the HRRR's performance over certain regions of the coterminous United States has not been well studied. In the present study, we evaluated how well version 2 of the HRRR, which became operational at NCEP in August 2016, simulates the near-surface meteorological fields and the surface energy balance at two locations in northern Alabama. We evaluated the 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 18-h HRRR forecasts, as well as the HRRR's initial conditions (i.e., the 0-h initial fields) using meteorological and flux observations obtained from two 10-m micrometeorological towers installed near Belle Mina and Cullman, Alabama. During the 8-month model evaluation period, from 1 September 2016 to 30 April 2017, we found that the HRRR accurately simulated the observations of near-surface air and dewpoint temperature (R2 > 0.95). When comparing the HRRR output with the observed sensible, latent, and ground heat flux at both sites, we found that the agreement was weaker (R2 ≈ 0.7), and the root-mean-square errors were much larger than those found for the near-surface meteorological variables. These findings help motivate the need for additional work to improve the representation of surface fluxes and their coupling to the atmosphere in future versions of the HRRR to be more physically realistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Upscaling point measurements from micrometeorological towers is a challenging task that is important for a variety of applications, for example, in process studies of convection initiation, carbon and energy budget studies, and the improvement of model parameterizations. In the present study, a technique was developed to determine the horizontal variability in sensible heat flux H surrounding micrometeorological towers. The technique was evaluated using 15-min flux observations, as well as measurements of land surface temperature and air temperature obtained from small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) conducted during a one-day measurement campaign. The computed H was found to be comparable to the micrometeorological measurements to within 5-10 W m−2. Furthermore, when comparing H computed using this technique with H determined using large-eddy simulations (LES), differences of <10 W m−2 were typically found. Thus, implementing this technique using observations from sUAS will help determine sensible heat flux variability at horizontal spatial scales larger than can be provided from flux tower measurements alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by high-resolution observations of small-scale atmospheric vortices along near-surface boundaries, this study presents a series of idealized simulations that attempt to replicate shear zones typical of drylines and other near-surface boundaries. The series of dry, constant potential temperature simulations are initialized with a north-south-oriented constant-vorticity shear zone and north-south periodic boundary conditions. In all simulations, the shear zones develop wavelike perturbations that eventually roll up into discrete vortices. These vortices have features resembling those observed in many laboratory and numerical studies (i.e., instabilities developed into elliptical cores connected by vorticity braids that precess and contain pressure minima in their centers). To assess the instability mechanism, the results are compared to linear theory. Excellent agreement is found between predictions from linear theory for the wavenumber of maximum growth as a function of shear zone width and growth rate as a function of shear zone vorticity, suggesting to a very good first approximation, horizontal shearing instability (HSI) is responsible for the growth of initial small perturbations. It is also found that predictions of linear theory tend to extend well into the nonlinear regime. Finally, preferred regions of cumulus formation are assessed by including moisture in four simulations. Maximum updrafts and simulated cumuli tend to form along the periphery of cores and/or along the braided regions adjacent to the cores. Because of the important modulating effect of misocyclone development via HSI and subsequent moisture transport, cumulus spacing and size/depth are also dependent on the shear zone width and vorticity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a series of idealized simulations that attempt to replicate shear zones typical of drylines and other near-surface boundaries in the presence of horizontal virtual density gradients. The series of dry simulations are initialized to contain a north-south-oriented potential temperature gradient collocated with a constant-vorticity shear zone and employ north-south periodic boundary conditions. In all simulations, the shear zones frontogenetically collapse as wavelike perturbations develop that eventually roll up into discrete vortices. Convergence associated with the developing solenoidally forced secondary vertical circulation induces an accumulative shear zone contraction, which in turn increases the vertical vorticity of both the shear zone and the intensifying vortices, owing primarily to stretching that is partially offset by tilting of the vertical vorticity into the horizontal by the secondary circulation. The simulated vortices bear strong morphological resemblance to vortices reported in many earlier laboratory and numerical studies. To assess hypothesized baroclinic effects on the instability mechanism, the present results are compared to a previous study of barotropic horizontal shearing instability (HSI). Linear theory has been modified for the baroclinic cases by introducing a parametric model of frontal contraction, according to which the growth rate expressions incorporate model-prescribed, continuously varying shear zone widths. This modified parametric model is found to provide excellent agreement with the growth rates computed from the present simulations, suggesting that HSI can be extended to the baroclinic shear zone cases to a very good approximation over a range of near-surface boundary types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dryline and misocyclones have been simulated in a cloud-resolving model by applying specified initial and time-dependent lateral boundary conditions obtained from analyses of the 22 May 2002 IHOP dataset. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were obtained from a combination of the time-spaced Lagrangian analyses for temperature and moisture with horizontal velocities from multiple-Doppler wind syntheses. The simulated dryline, horizontal dry-convective rolls (HCRs) and open cells (OCCs), misocyclones, and cumulus clouds are similar to the corresponding observed features. The misocyclones move northward at nearly the mean boundary layer (BL) wind speed, rotate dryline gradients owing to their circulations, and move the local dryline eastward via their passage. Cumuli develop along a secondary dryline, along HCR and OCC segments between the primary and secondary drylines, along HCR and OCC segments that have moved over the dryline, and within the dryline updraft. After the initial shearing instability develops, misocyclogenesis proceeds from tilting and stretching of vorticity by the persistent secondary dryline circulation. The resulting misocyclone evolution is discussed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new Lagrangian analysis technique is developed to assimilate in situ boundary layer measurements using multi-Doppler-derived wind fields, providing output fields of water vapor mixing ratio, potential temperature, and virtual potential temperature from which the lifting condensation level (LCL) and relative humidity (RH) fields are derived. The Lagrangian analysis employs a continuity principle to bidirectionally distribute observed values of conservative variables with the 3D, evolving boundary layer airflow, followed by temporal and spatial interpolation to an analysis grid. Cloud is inferred at any grid point whose height z > zLCL or equivalently where RH ≥ 100%. Lagrangian analysis of the cumulus field is placed in the context of gridded analyses of visible satellite imagery and photogrammetric cloud-base area analyses. Brief illustrative examples of boundary layer morphology derived with the Lagrangian analysis are presented based on data collected during the International H2O Project (IHOP): 1) a dryline on 22 May 2002; 2) a cold-frontal–dryline “triple point” intersection on 24 May 2002. The Lagrangian analysis preserves the sharp thermal gradients across the cold front and drylines and reveals the presence of undulations and plumes of water vapor mixing ratio and virtual potential temperature associated with deep penetrative updraft cells and convective roll circulations. Derived cloud fields are consistent with satellite-inferred cloud cover and cloud-base locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the afternoon and evening of 22 May 2002, high-resolution observations of the boundary layer (BL) and a dryline were obtained in the eastern Oklahoma and Texas panhandles during the International H2O Project. Using overdetermined multiple-Doppler radar syntheses in concert with a Lagrangian analysis of water vapor and temperature fields, the 3D kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the dryline and surrounding BL have been analyzed over a nearly 2-h period. The dryline is resolved as a strong (2–4 g kg-1 km-1) gradient of water vapor mixing ratio that resides in a nearly north–south-oriented zone of convergence. Maintained through frontogenesis, the dryline is also located within a gradient of virtual potential temperature, which induces a persistent, solenoidally forced secondary circulation. Initially quasi-stationary, the dryline retrogrades to the west during early evening and displays complicated substructures including small wavelike perturbations that travel from south to north at nearly the speed of the mean BL flow. A second, minor dryline has similar characteristics to the first, but has weaker gradients and circulations. The BL adjacent to the dryline exhibits complicated structures, consisting of combinations of open cells, horizontal convective rolls, and transverse rolls. Strong convergence and vertical motion at the dryline act to lift moisture, and high-based cumulus clouds are observed in the analysis domain. Although the top of the analysis domain is below the lifted condensation level height, vertical extrapolation of the moisture fields generally agrees with cloud locations. Mesoscale vortices that move along the dryline induce a transient eastward dryline motion due to the eastward advection of dry air following misocyclone passage. Refractivity-based moisture and differential reflectivity analyses are used to help interpret the Lagrangian analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cumulus formation and convection initiation are examined near a cold front–dryline “triple point” intersection on 24 May 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP). A new Lagrangian objective analysis technique assimilates in situ measurements using time-dependent Doppler-derived 3D wind fields, providing output 3D fields of water vapor mixing ratio, virtual potential temperature, and lifted condensation level (LCL) and water-saturated (i.e., cloud) volumes on a subdomain of the radar analysis grid. The radar and Lagrangian analyses reveal the presence of along-wind (i.e., longitudinal) and cross-wind (i.e., transverse) roll circulations in the boundary layer (BL). A remarkable finding of the evolving radar analyses is the apparent persistence of both transverse rolls and individual updraft, vertical vorticity, and reflectivity cores for periods of up to 30 min or more while moving approximately with the local BL wind. Satellite cloud images and single-camera ground photogrammetry imply that clouds tend to develop either over or on the downwind edge of BL updrafts, with a tendency for clouds to elongate and dissipate in the downwind direction relative to cloud layer winds due to weakening updrafts and mixing with drier overlying air. The Lagrangian and radar wind analyses support a parcel continuity principle for cumulus formation, which requires that rising moist air parcels achieve their LCL before moving laterally out of the updraft. Cumuli form within penetrative updrafts in the elevated residual layer (ERL) overlying the moist BL east of the triple point, but remain capped by a convection inhibition (CIN)-bearing layer above the ERL. Dropsonde data suggest the existence of a convergence line about 80 km east of the triple point where deep lifting of BL moisture and locally reduced CIN together support convection initiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 21 May 1995, a strong tornado developed with an isolated supercell in southwestern Nebraska. Largescale conditions were not supportive of a tornadic thunderstorm outbreak; however, evidence suggests significant mesoscale enhancements produced a local environment favorable for strong tornado formation. This case study illustrates the importance of "situation awareness" and illustrates how mesoscale enhancements must be anticipated by forecasters in order to properly assess rapidly changing atmospheric conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rotary-wing small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) are increasingly being used for sampling thermodynamic and chemical properties of the Earth's atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) because of their ability to measure at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Therefore, they have the potential to be used for long-term quasi-continuous monitoring of the ABL, which is critical for improving ABL parameterizations and improving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models through data assimilation. Before rotary-wing aircraft can be used for these purposes, however, their performance and the sensors used therein must be adequately characterized. In the present study, we describe recent calibration and validation procedures for thermodynamic sensors used on two rotary-wing aircraft: A DJI S-1000 and MD4-1000. These evaluations indicated a high level of confidence in the on-board measurements. We then used these measurements to characterize the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface (up to 300-m AGL) temperature and moisture fields as a component of two recent field campaigns: The Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment in the Southeast U.S. (VORTEX-SE) in Alabama, and the Land Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE) in northern Oklahoma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rotary-wing small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) are increasingly being used for sampling thermodynamic and chemical properties of the Earth's atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) because of their ability to measure at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Therefore, they have the potential to be used for long-term quasi-continuous monitoring of the ABL, which is critical for improving ABL parameterizations and improving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models through data assimilation. Before rotary-wing aircraft can be used for these purposes, however, their performance and the sensors used therein must be adequately characterized. In the present study, we describe recent calibration and validation procedures for thermodynamic sensors used on two rotary-wing aircraft: A DJI S-1000 and MD4-1000. These evaluations indicated a high level of confidence in the on-board measurements. We then used these measurements to characterize the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface (up to 300-m AGL) temperature and moisture fields as a component of two recent field campaigns: The Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment in the Southeast U.S. (VORTEX-SE) in Alabama, and the Land Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE) in northern Oklahoma.