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The re location of gray wolves in Northern Rocky Mountains in North America and habitat selection process of these relocated wolves is evaluated.

Reliable analyses can help wildlife managers make good decisions, which are particularly critical for controversial decisions such as wolf ( Canis lupus) harvest. Creel and Rotella (2010) recently predicted substantial population declines in Montana wolf populations due to harvest, in contrast to predictions made by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP). We replicated their analyses considering only those years in which field monitoring was consistent, and we considered the effect of annual variation in recruitment on wolf population growth. Rather than assuming constant rates, we used model selection methods to evaluate and incorporate models of factors driving recruitment and human-caused mortality rates in wolf populations in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Using data from 27 area-years of intensive wolf monitoring, we show that variation in both recruitment and human-caused mortality affect annual wolf population growth rates and that human-caused mortality rates have increased with the sizes of wolf populations. We document that recruitment rates have decreased over time, and we speculate that rates have decreased with increasing population sizes and/or that the ability of current field resources to document recruitment rates has recently become less successful as the number of wolves in the region has increased. Estimates of positive wolf population growth in Montana from our top models are consistent with field observations and estimates previously made by MFWP for 2008-2010, whereas the predictions for declining wolf populations of Creel and Rotella (2010) are not. Familiarity with limitations of raw data, obtained first-hand or through consultation with scientists who collected the data, helps generate more reliable inferences and conclusions in analyses of publicly available datasets. Additionally, development of efficient monitoring methods for wolves is a pressing need, so that analyses such as ours will be possible in future years when fewer resources will be available for monitoring. © 2011 The Wildlife Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The successful re-introduction of grey wolves to the western United States is an impressive accomplishment for conservation science. However, the degree to which subpopulations are genetically structured and connected, along with the preservation of genetic variation, is an important concern for the continued viability of the metapopulation. We analysed DNA samples from 555 Northern Rocky Mountain wolves from the three recovery areas (Greater Yellowstone Area, Montana, and Idaho), including all 66 re-introduced founders, for variation in 26 microsatellite loci over the initial 10-year recovery period (1995-2004). The population maintained high levels of variation ( HO = 0.64-0.72; allelic diversity k = 7.0-10.3) with low levels of inbreeding ( FIS < 0.03) and throughout this period, the population expanded rapidly ( n1995 = 101; n2004 = 846). Individual-based Bayesian analyses revealed significant population genetic structure and identified three subpopulations coinciding with designated recovery areas. Population assignment and migrant detection were difficult because of the presence of related founders among different recovery areas and required a novel approach to determine genetically effective migration and admixture. However, by combining assignment tests, private alleles, sibship reconstruction, and field observations, we detected genetically effective dispersal among the three recovery areas. Successful conservation of Northern Rocky Mountain wolves will rely on management decisions that promote natural dispersal dynamics and minimize anthropogenic factors that reduce genetic connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model-based predictors derived from historical data are rarely evaluated before they are used to draw inferences. We performed a temporal validation, (i.e. assessed the performance of a predictive model using data collected from the same population after the model was developed) of a statistical predictor for the number of successful breeding pairs of wolves Canis lupus in the northern Rocky Mountains (NRM). We predicted the number of successful breeding pairs, β, in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming based on the distribution of pack sizes observed through monitoring in 2006 and 2007 (ˆβ), and compared these estimates to the minimum number of successful breeding pairs, βMIN, observed through intensive monitoring. βMIN was consistently included within the 95% confidence intervals of ˆβ for all states in both years (except for Idaho in 2007), generally following the pattern ˆβL (lower 95% prediction interval for ˆβ) , ˆβMIN , ˆ β. This evaluation of ˆβ estimates for 2006 and 2007 suggest it will be a robust model-based method for predicting successful breeding pairs of NRM wolves in the future, provided influences other than those modeled in ˆβ (e.g. disease outbreak, severe winter) do not have a strong effect on wolf populations. Managers can use ˆβ models with added confidence as part of their post-delisting monitoring of wolves in NRM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on a process for internally validating a predictive logistic regression model and describe the process with an example based on the estimation of successfully breeding wolf packs (BP) in the northern Rocky Mountains (NRM). It explores how levels of human-caused mortality and wolf population dynamics can influence the relationship between pack size and the probability of a pack containing a BP. It details the steps in internally validating the accuracy of predictive logistic regression models.

Abstract The Northern Rocky Mountain Wolf Recovery plan proposed reintroduction of Canis lupus (gray wolf) to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho as part of a wolf restoration plan for the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Strong opposition from some factions within the region forestalled the action for two decades. An environmental impact statement, conducted in 1992–1994 with extensive public input, culminated in a proposal to reintroduce wolves designated as “non-essential—experimental” under Section 10 (j) of the federal Endangered Species Act. This approach, approved by the Secretary of the Interior in 1994, provided for wolf restoration while allowing management flexibility to deal with concerns of the local public. A reintroduction plan was developed in the summer and fall of 1994. Acquiring, holding, transporting, and releasing suitable wolves for reintroduction presented a myriad of technical and logistical challenges that required effective planning and coordination by all participants. In January 1995, 29 wolves were captured in Alberta and transported to Yellowstone National Park (14) and central Idaho (15). Idaho wolves were freed immediately upon arrival; Yellowstone wolves (three family groups) were held in acclimation pens in the park until late March. Most Idaho wolves traveled extensively within the area intended for them, averaging 82 km net distance away from release sites after 5 months (range = 30–220 km), and three male-female pairs formed by July. After 5 months in the wild, at least 13 of 15 Idaho-released wolves were alive within the intended area, as were 13 of 14 Yellowstone wolves; one wolf was known to have been illegally killed in each area. No livestock were killed. Wolves released into Yellowstone Park continued to live as packs, stayed closer to their release sites (x = 22 km at end of June), and settled into home ranges; two packs produced a total of nine pups. The... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four cases where large predators caused Grey Wolf (Canis lupus) mortality are recorded. We describe two incidents of Cougars (Puma concolar) killing Wolves in Montana and one incident of a Cougar killing a Wolf in Alberta. We report the first recorded incident of a Grizzly Bear (Ursus arctos) killing a Wolf in the western United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: There is substantial interest in how mortality rates affect animal populations, but mechanisms explaining when and under what circumstances particular causes of death incur demographic responses are far from clear. In theory, small or expanding populations should experience additive mortality from anthropogenic causes of death, but whether such effects are homogenous across a population or expressed only in certain high-risk individuals is open for debate. We used competing risks models to analyze mortality patterns among radio-collared wolves (Canis lupus, n =711) from three populations in northwestern United States (1982–2004), and evaluated the degree to which anthropogenic mortality was additive vs. compensatory to natural demographic processes. Almost 80% (n =320) of wolves dying of known fates were killed by anthropogenic causes (legal control, illegal killing, harvest in Canada, vehicle collision), and additive effects of anthropogenic mortality were most pronounced in northwestern Montana where wolf exposure to humans and livestock was high compared to either the Greater Yellowstone Area or central Idaho, where anthropogenic risk was lower. In contrast, risk from natural hazards was lower in northwestern Montana than in the other areas, implying some degree of compensatory mortality from anthropogenic risk. Animals recruited to the study following human–wolf conflict had markedly higher anthropogenic risk than those recruited for standard monitoring purposes, and juvenile wolves as well as dispersers, succumbed to higher anthropogenic risk. Multivariate models revealed that increasing wolf population density promoted higher anthropogenic risk and reduced natural risk, indicating that partially-compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality actually became increasingly additive with population density. The observed compensatory mortality and hazard heterogeneity in our study implies that demographic responses to mortality risk may be complex and more subtle than previously thought; the density-dependent effect of anthropogenic mortality portends a stabilizing influence of humans on recovering wolf populations. We conclude that future assessment of the role of anthropogenic mortality should include individual-based hazard estimation as a complement to traditional population-level approaches. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]