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This chapter advocates for a greater uptake of two underused approached in the security field, realistic evaluation and the 5Is framework, to support more robust and systematic approaches to evaluating security interventions. It contends that a combination of these two complimentary approaches affords a methodical approach to support the design of security interventions, enables a systematic approach for the evaluation of security interventions, offers a greater understanding by the mechanisms which a security intervention has or has not worked in a particular setting or place, facilitates replication and future adaption of security interventions in different contexts, and provides a user-friendly structure for disseminating and communicating the evaluation results of interventions to security practitioners. This chapter examines the strengths and limitations of each approach, the merits of combining the two, and uses a hypothetical scenario to guide the reader through how to carry out a combined realistic evaluation and 5Is evaluation of a security intervention.

3D seismic reflection data have been used to map 784 enigmatic ridge-furrow structures in water depths of 0.8–1.7 km offshore Angola. The structures are characterised by asymmetric ridges with intervening furrows, typically

Winter roads play a vital role in linking communities and building economies in the northern high latitudes. With these regions warming 2–3 times faster than the global average, climate change threatens the long-term viability of these important seasonal transport routes. We examine how climate change will impact the world’s busiest heavy-haul winter road—the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR) in northern Canada. The FLake freshwater lake model is used to project ice thickness for a lake at the start of the TCWR—first using observational climate data, and second using modeled future climate scenarios corresponding to varying rates of warming ranging from 1.5° to 4°C above preindustrial temperatures. Our results suggest that 2°C warming could be a tipping point for the viability of the TCWR, requiring at best costly adaptation and at worst alternative forms of transportation. Containing warming to the more ambitious temperature target of 1.5°C pledged at the 2016 Paris Agreement may be the only way to keep the TCWR viable—albeit with a shortened annual operational season relative to present. More widely, we show that higher regional winter warming across much of the rest of Arctic North America threatens the long-term viability of winter roads at a continental scale. This underlines the importance of continued global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions to avoid many long-term and irreversible impacts of climate change.

At high latitudes and altitudes one of the main controls on hydrological and biogeochemical processes is the breakup and freeze-up of lake and river ice. This study uses 3510 time series from across 678 Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers to explore historical patterns in lake and river ice phenology across five overlapping time periods (1931–1960, 1946–1975, 1961–1990, 1976–2005, and 1931–2005). These time series show that the number of annual open-water days increased by 0.63 d per decade from 1931–2005 across the Northern Hemisphere, with trends for breakup and, to a lesser extent, freeze-up closely correlating with regionally averaged temperature. Breakup and freeze-up trends display a spatiotemporally complex evolution and reveal considerable caveats with interpreting the implications of ice phenology changes at lake and river sites that may only have breakup or freeze-up data, rather than both. These results provide an important contribution by showing regional variation in ice phenology trends through time that can be hidden by longer-term trends. The overlapping 30-year time periods also show evidence for an acceleration in warming trends through time. Understanding the changes on both long- and short-term timescales will be important for determining the causes of this change, the underlying biogeochemical processes associated with it, and the wider climatological significance as global temperatures rise.

[Containment Confidence (CC) analysis of the seal and overburden, applied to the northern Utsira Fm. (a) Workflow followed to provide a regional CC summary. (b) Schematic scenarios of seal ond overburden bypass that could result in migration out of the Utsira Fm. and through the overburden. (c) Well data tied to seismic showing the typical seismic response of the sandstone and mudstone interfaces. URU, Upper Regional Unconformity; sandst., sandstone; int., interval , Abstract Upscaling Carbon Capture and Storage requires identification of suitable storage sites, with robust reservoir seals. The Utsira Formation in the northern North Sea has been flagged as a target for further storage. However, there are no regional studies of seal variability addressing heterogeneities that could facilitate seal bypass. This study aims to: (a) identify, assess and map the elements that promote or restrict fluid migration, (b) develop a matrix to regionally map containment confidence (CC) and (c) rank the different areas for CO2 containment across the Utsira Formation. The seal and overburden were mapped using a high‐resolution, pre‐stack depth‐migrated 3D broadband seismic reflection dataset and 141 exploration wells. Seal geometry, sandstone presence and sandstone connectivity in the seal and overburden were assigned relative CC scores, which were summed to map overall CC of the Utsira Fm. Indicators for shallow gas and migration were mapped and correlated with the other elements. Areas with the lowest CC are in the west of the Utsira Fm. Here, sandstones within the Seal Interval are connected through the overburden via sandy submarine fans. In the southeast, dipping stratigraphy downlaps onto the Utsira Fm., increasing the potential for connection with glacially‐derived channel‐lobe systems in the overburden. The areas with the highest CC are the central and northeast parts of the Utsira Fm., where the Seal Interval is mudstone‐dominated and parallel to the reservoir, and channel‐lobe systems identified in the Overburden Interval are disconnected from the reservoir. This area coincides with a thick depocentre of the northern Utsira Fm. These results can be used to inform CO2 storage site selection and constrain future CO2 plume simulation analyses for the Utsira Fm. The CC matrix outlined here can also be adapted and applied to regionally assess the containment of other potential CO2 storage reservoirs in any setting.]

Industrial 3D seismic data are used to investigate the contemporary hydrocarbon distribution and historical fluid migration in Melville Bay offshore northwest Greenland. Gas-related amplitude anomalies and an extensive bottom simulating reflector (BSR) were mapped within the uppermost 1–2 km of stratigraphy to define the first inventory of shallow gas and gas hydrate along this part of the Greenland margin. The shallow gas anomalies vary in seismic character and have been subdivided into four categories that represent (I) isolated shallow gas, (II) free gas trapped at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), (III) gas charged glacial clinoforms and (IV) a giant mass transport deposit gas reservoir. Gas hydrate deposits have been identified across an area of 537 km2 via the identification of a discontinuous BSR that marks the base of the GHSZ. The BSR has been used to estimate a geothermal gradient of 49 °C/km across the GHSZ and a heat flow of 70–90 mW/m2, providing the first publically available heat flow estimates offshore western Greenland. The contemporary hydrocarbon distribution and historical fluid migration is influenced by the underlying paleo-rift topography and multiple shelf edge glaciations since ~2.7 Ma. Continued uplift of the Melville Bay Ridge, as well as glacial-sediment redistribution and basinward margin tilting from isostatic compensation, have led to a concentration of hydrocarbons within the Cenozoic stratigraphy above the ridge. Furthermore, repeated variations in subsurface conditions during glacial-interglacial cycles likely promoted fluid remigration, and possibly contributed to reservoir leakage and increased fluid migration through faults. The top of the gas hydrate occurrence at 650 m water depth is well below the hydrate-free gas phase boundary (~350 m) for the present bottom-water temperature of 1.5 °C, suggesting this hydrate province mainly adjusted to glacial-interglacial changes by expansion and dissociation at its base and is relatively inert to current levels of global warming. This glacial-related dissociation may have significantly contributed to the numerous free gas accumulations observed below the GHSZ at present day.

The NW Greenland margin contains several underexplored sedimentary basins formed by Cretaceous rifting and Cenozoic post-rift sedimentation. The basins are thought to contain significant hydrocarbon reserves although no exploration wells have been drilled to date. This paper reports the discovery of a gas-charged submarine landslide Mass Transport Deposit (MTD) covering 420 km2 (162 mi2) above the Melville Bay Ridge rift structure. The sedimentary succession that deformed into the MTD was likely deposited within a shallow marine spit complex developed along the ridge axis extension during the Eocene. The MTD displays landslide characteristics with distinct blocks up to 1 km (3281 ft) wide and 80 m (262 ft) thick that geometrically fit together like a jigsaw puzzle. Clear direct hydrocarbon indicators and velocity estimations suggest the mass transport blocks are composed of highly porous, gas charged sands intercalated with shale layers and overlain by post-slide pelagic mudstones. The reconstruction of all 499 MTD blocks suggests emplacement by bi-directional sliding, triggered by rejuvenation and southward tilt of the Melville Bay Ridge. Sliding most likely occurred slowly along a low-angle decollement surface, with the blocks remaining intact despite not being confined within a typical slide mass. Instead, coherency was likely aided by lithological layering and diagenesis. Gravitational shedding of the steep block margins has created inter-block sand accumulations, which may enhance connectivity. This study provides an important analogue for significant reservoir occurrence in large MTD blocks and provides constraints on the basin development and petroleum prospectivity of NE Baffin Bay.

This paper summarises the results from a blind-prediction benchmark study for models used for estimating the consequences of vented hydrogen deflagrations, as well as for users of such models. The work was part of the HySEA project that received funding from the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH JU) under grant agreement no. 671461. The first blind-prediction benchmark exercise in the HySEA project focused on vented explosions with homogeneous hydrogen-air mixtures in 20-foot ISO containers. The scenarios selected for the second blind-prediction study focused on vented deflagrations in inhomogeneous hydrogen-air mixtures resulting from continuous stratification of hydrogen during vertical jet releases inside 20-foot ISO containers. The deflagrations were vented through commercial vent panels located on the roof of the containers. The test program included two configurations and four experiments, i.e. two repeated tests for each scenario. The paper compares experimental results and model predictions and discusses the implications of the findings for safety related to hydrogen applications. Several modellers predicted the stratification of hydrogen inside the container during the release phase with reasonable accuracy. However, there is significant spread in the model predictions, especially for the maximum reduced explosion pressure, and including predictions from different modellers using the same model system. The results from the blind-prediction benchmark studies performed as part of the HySEA project constitute a strong incentive for developers of consequence models to improve their models, implement automated procedures for scenario definition and grid generation, and update training and guidelines for users of the models. publishedVersion

The reconstruction of former ice sheets is important for testing Earth system models that can assess interactions between polar ice sheets and global climate, but information retrieved from contemporary glaciated margins is sparse. In particular, we need to know when ice sheets began to form marine outlets and the mechanisms by which they advance and retreat over timescales from decades to millions of years. Here, we use a dense grid of high-quality two-dimensional seismic reflection data to examine the stratigraphy and evolution of glacial outlets, or palaeo-ice streams, that drained the northwest Greenland Ice Sheet into Baffin Bay. Seismic horizons are partly age constrained by correlation with cores from drill sites. Progradational units separated by onlap surfaces record 11 major phases of shelf-edge ice advance and subsequent transgression since the first ice-sheet expansion 3.3–2.6 million years ago. The glacial outlet system appears to have developed in four stages, each potentially caused by tectonic and climatic changes. We infer that an abrupt change in ice-flow conditions occurred during the mid-Pleistocene transition, about 1 million years ago, when ice movement across the shelf margin changed from widespread to a more focused flow (ice streams), forming the present-day glacial troughs. Eleven phases of advance of the Greenland Ice Sheet, following the first expansion between 3.3 and 2.6 million years ago, are documented in analyses of a grid of seismic reflection data.

This study analyses theft of personal property offences on the London Underground (LU). This major mass transit system carries over 1,000 million passenger per year, and experienced 5,063 theft offences in financial year 2011/2012 (BTP, 2013). Whilst this represents a rate of only four thefts per million passenger journeys, theft is a key offence type on the LU. Indeed, as a proportion of all offences, over half were for theft. This chapter examines a specific type of theft offence, what Smith (2008) termed stealth crimes, for example, pickpocketing. It excludes snatching and other theft types. For these stealth offences, victims are often unaware items are stolen, only discovering them missing at a later date, on transit journeys usually somewhere else on the transit line. As the location of many of these thefts is unknown, an innovative methodology is used to better estimate the locations of theft on transit stations. This is termed Interstitial Crime Analysis (ICA) and is described in detail by Newton et al. (2014).

Introduction: Chronic Heart Failure (CHF) is a complex and disabling disease with increasing prevalence in Australia, affecting 10% of people over the age of 65 and estimated cost of $1 billion per annum. CHF hospitalisations are potentially preventable when patients have timely access to healthcare services; receive evidence based, co-ordinated care across the continuum of primary, secondary and tertiary services. Background: Data analysis at Blacktown and Mount Druitt Hospital (BMDH) Western Sydney Local Health District (WSLHD), identified 84% of 2012/13 CHF admissions were Potentially Preventable Admissions (PPA), including 28 day re-admission rate of 28%. A team was established in February 2014 with the goal to reduce PPA from 84% to 70% by October 2015, developing strategies to support patients to live well at home, improve their health outcomes and experience of care over the lifetime of their disease. Methodology: The New South Wales Agency for Clinical Innovation (ACI) Healthcare Redesign Methodology was utilised. Five phases including initiation, diagnostics, solution design, implementation and evaluation; the methodology emphasises partnership with patients and stakeholders. Over 5 months, 35 stakeholders including patients and staff from BMDH, Community, General Practice and Medicare Locals participated in workshops, interviews, forums and data collection. World Congress on Integrated Care 2014, Sydney, November 23-26, 2014. International Journal of Integrated Care – Volume 14, 8 December – URN:NBN:NL:UI:10-1-116642– http://www.ijic.org/

This paper describes initial efforts to utilise GIS technology to cross reference crime data on one aspect of the public transport journey, bus shelter damage, with information on socio-demographic conditions, land use and infrastructure, covering the county of Merseyside in the North West of England. A GIS is used in conjunction with spatial statistical analysis to explore the nature, manifestation and patterns of damage to bus shelters. Evidence of clustering is found, and one fifth of all damage for a year is shown to occur at 2.5% of all bus shelters. The findings also suggest that particular neighbourhoods types, and certain characteristics of socio-demographic and physical environment, are more likely to experience shelter damage than others. This implies that bus shelter damage is related in a systematic and predictable way to known attributes of a shelter's location. This prompts discussion of the use of a combination of GIS and other crime mapping techniques developing our knowledge of the extent of, and the theoretical reasons underlying, crime and disorder on public transport.

This paper explores organisational challenges of embedding ‘Evidence Based Policing’ (EBP) in policing using a mixed methods design sampled across a range of ranks/roles. Key organisational constraints identified include limited awareness of/access to research, lack of resources and capability concerns, and challenges related to organisational culture. Challenges were disproportionately experienced by lower ranking officers who were not fully equipped to engage with EBP. Senior officers were not fully cognisant of these challenges. This paper argues for EBP to better identify its applicability across diverse roles and functions within policing and consider how organisational culture and leadership can reduce this inequity.

This paper was presented at the Seventh International Conference of Hydrogen Safety (ICHS 2017) in Hamburg on 11-13 September 2017. The paper summarises the results from a blind-prediction study for models developed for estimating the consequences of vented hydrogen deflagrations. The work is part of the project Improving hydrogen safety for energy applications through pre-normative research on vented deflagrations (HySEA). The scenarios selected for the blind-prediction entailed vented explosions with homogeneous hydrogen-air mixtures in a 20-foot ISO container. The test program included two configurations and six experiments, i.e. three repeated tests for each scenario. The comparison between experimental results and model predictions reveals reasonable agreement for some of the models, and significant discrepancies for others. It is foreseen that the first blind-prediction study in the HySEA project will motivate developers to improve their models, and to update guidelines for users of the models. The paper is a deliverable from the project “Improving hydrogen safety for energy applications through pre-normative research on vented deflagrations”, or HySEA (www.hysea.eu), which receives funding from the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH JU) under grant agreement no. 671461. This Joint Undertaking receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and United Kingdom, Italy, Belgium and Norway.