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This commentary discusses new advances in the predictability of east African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural decision‐making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts, 23 million east Africans faced starvation in 2022, requiring >$2 billion in aid. Here, we update climate attribution studies showing that these droughts resulted from an interaction of climate change and La Niña. Then we describe, for the first time, how attribution‐based insights can be combined with the latest dynamical models to predict droughts at 8‐month lead‐times. We then discuss behavioral and social barriers to forecast use, and review literature examining how EWS might (or might not) enhance agro‐pastoral advisories and humanitarian interventions. Finally, in reference to the new World Meteorological Organization "Early Warning for All" Executive Action Plan, we conclude with a set of recommendations supporting actionable and authoritative climate services. Trust, urgency, and accuracy can help overcome barriers created by limitedfunding, uncertain tradeoffs, and inertia. Understanding how climate change is producing predictable climate extremes now, investing in African‐led EWS, and building better links between EWS and agricultural development efforts can support long‐term adaptation, reducing chronic needs for billions of dollars in reactive assistance. In Africa and beyond, climate change brings increasingly extreme sea surface temperature (SST) gradients. Using climate models, we can often see these extremes coming. Prediction, therefore, offers opportunities for proactive risk management and improved advisory services, if we can create effective societal linkages via cross‐silo collaborations. Plain Language Summary: Eastern East Africa is extremely food insecure. Millions of farmers and pastoralists rely on two meager rainy seasons that arrive twice a year. In the 13 seasons since late 2016, the region experienced eight droughts and three exceptionally wet seasons. Seven droughts were linked to very strong Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, which arose through an interaction between climate change and La Niña. Climate change will bring more extreme Pacific and Indian Ocean SST gradients. Here, for the first time, we show that these gradients can be very well predicted by the current generation of climate models. We then discuss how such information might be used to inform risk management, agriculture, and livestock management practices. The IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center, Ethiopian and Kenyan meteorological agencies, and other groups are providing increasingly accurate climate information. This creates opportunities for more proactive and effective agricultural and pastoral advisory services. Trust, urgency and accuracy can lower uncertainty, reduce risk aversion, and empower poor households and cash‐strapped institutions to act and innovate. Investing now in collaborative African climate systems, participatory advisory services and proactive risk management will help counter these threatening climate extremes. Key Points: Climate change and La Niña are producing extreme Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, which can be predicted very far in advanceThese Pacific SST forecasts provide robust opportunities for predicting well wet and dry outcomes in East AfricaTrust, urgency and accuracy can overcome barriers due to limited funding, uncertain tradeoffs, and inertia by improving advisory services [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Supporting women's groups is increasingly seen as an important intervention strategy for advancing women's empowerment, economic outcomes, and family health in low- and middle-income countries. We argue that learning from investments in women's group platforms is often limited by the lack of a well-articulated, evaluable theory of change (ToC) developed by those designing the programmes. Methods We first identify a simple set of steps important to specifying a ToC that is evaluable and supports learning (what could be done). We then propose a framework in which we hope social scientists can find a common starting point (reconciling what could be and is being done). The framework emphasises identifying untested assumptions around pathways for introducing and adopting new knowledge, opportunities, technologies, interventions or implementation approaches, and pathways from group participation to behaviour change. Finally, we apply this framework to a portfolio of 46 women's groups investments made by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation between 2005 and 2017 to understand the prevalence and clarity of their grantees' theories of change (some of what is done). Results The majority of the investment documents reviewed did not make clear the embedded assumptions or hypothesised pathwys from decisions to join a group, to women's group participation, to behaviour change and whether pathways are connected or work independently. Conclusions We use a example from an actual investment to illustrate how this framework can support accounting for assumptions for in the ToC used to guide the evaluation, testing and measuring mechanisms assumed to be driving behaviour change, and disentangling the effects of implementation from context. A ToC for group-based programmes should specify in what capacities the group-based model is essential to the hypothesised pathways of impact vs. its role as an efficient delivery mechanism for programmes that would potentially generate impacts even if delivered directly to individuals. In addition, without fully specifying the motivation for individuals to change behaviour in terms of their risk/return calculus and testing underlying assumptions, we miss an opportunity to better understand the pathways for how the programme influences or fails to influence individuals' health behaviours. However, fully specifying (and measuring) every link in the programme's ToC is not costless. We present suggestions for developing ToCs with testable hypotheses that foster learning about why a women's group intervention achieved or failed to achieve its intended impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to save for future needs is critical to family well-being and is especially challenging for low-income families with little extra income and limited access to institutional structures like employment-based retirement funds or low cost savings mechanisms. Many nonprofits and governments have created new savings vehicles to fill this void. The ability of families to succeed in these programs may depend on their personal discount rates (time preferences). In this paper, we use survey data from a matched savings program and factor analysis to characterize family time preferences in order to predict their influence on savings levels. We find that a single latent factor describing the level of discount rates (rather than other dimensions of time or amount inconsistency) best describes family differences and is significantly related to the ability of families to save within the program. (JEL D91, 130), I. INTRODUCTION The empirical evidence on savings suggests that while poor families can and do save, lower income families are less likely to save and report lower rates of savings [...]

Women are found out to be more risk averse than and less likely to choose to compete with men based on a study of husbands and wives in 500 couples in rural Vietnam. The adoption of new technologies or engaging in economic activities that might result in higher expected returns also tend to be avoided by women. Other implications of these findings on development initiatives are given.

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2005.08.001 Byline: C. Leigh Anderson (a), Neil Nevitte (b) Keywords: Savings; Values Abstract: A variety of factors have been posited to account for rising levels of debt and dissaving. Using data spanning two decades, we explore whether attitudes towards thrift have shifted in Canada, demographic differences, and the relationship between peoples' priority for teaching thrift to their children and their own savings behavior. Among other findings, education is a strong predictor of the value of teaching thrift, whereas income is a strong predictor of one's ability to save. The data do not support conventional gender differences. French and English speaking Canadians differ more significantly than those born in Canada and immigrants born elsewhere. Author Affiliation: (a) Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington, P.O. Box 353055, Seattle, WA 98195, USA (b) Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ONT M5S 3G3, Canada Article History: Received 26 January 2005; Revised 18 May 2005; Accepted 12 August 2005

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses generally focus on intervention impacts or outcomes. Less common, however, are reviews of the assumptions and theory underlying the pathways between intervention and outcome. We consider the hypothetical case for interventions to empower female farmers, either by prioritising women for new investments or re-allocating existing resources. Empowerment is defined as increased women's decision-making authority related to agricultural resources, management and production, and income. We hypothesise two avenues through which productivity or health benefits might arise: (i) eliminating female-male differences in, e.g. input access; or (ii) leveraging gendered risk, time, and social preferences leading women to differentially allocate resources. A review of evidence highlights the extent of support for the baseline, behaviour change, and economic benefit assumptions behind these hypothesised avenues. Findings suggest returns to investing in female farmers could be significant in various contexts but estimates of economic returns to empowering women in agriculture remain limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of improved seed adoption in developing countries are almost always based on household surveys and are premised on the assumption that farmers can accurately self‐report their use of improved seed varieties. However, recent studies suggest that farmers' reports of seed varieties planted, or even whether the seed is local or improved, are sometimes inconsistent with the DNA fingerprinting results of those crops. We use household survey data from Tanzania to test the alignment between farmer‐reported and DNA‐identified maize seed types planted. In the sample, 70% of maize seed observations are correctly reported as local or improved, while 16% are type I errors (falsely reported as improved) and 14% are type II errors (falsely reported as local). Type I errors are more likely to have been sourced from other farmers, rather than formal channels. An analysis of input use, including seed, fertiliser, and labour allocations, reveals that farmers tend to treat improved maize differently, depending on whether they correctly perceive it as improved. This suggests that errors in farmers' seed type awareness may translate into suboptimal management practices. The average yield of seed that is correctly identified as improved is almost 700 kg per hectare greater than that of type I errors. This indicates that investments in farmers' access to information, seed labelling, and seed system oversight are needed to complement investments in seed variety development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise agricultural statistics are necessary to track productivity and design sound agricultural policies. Yet, in settings where multi-cropping is prevalent, even crop yield—perhaps the most common productivity metric—can be challenging to measure. In a survey of the literature on crop yield in low-income settings, we find that scholars specify how they estimate the area denominator used to measure yield in under 10% of cases. Using household survey data from Tanzania, we consider four alternative methods of allocating land area on multi-cropped plots, ranging from treatment of the entire plot as the yield denominator to increasingly precise approaches that account for the space taken up by other crops. We then explore the implications of this measurement decision for analyses of yield, focusing on one staple crop that is often grown on its own (rice) and one that is frequently found on mixed plots and in intercropped arrangements (maize). A majority (64%) of cultivated plots contain more than one crop, and average yield estimates vary with different methods of calculating area planted—particularly for maize. Importantly, the choice among area methods influences which of these two crops is found to be more calorie-productive per hectare. This choice also influences the statistically significant correlates of crop yield, such that the benefits of intercropping and including legumes on a maize plot are only evident when using an area measure that accounts for mixed cropping arrangements. We conclude that the literature would benefit from greater clarity regarding how yield is measured across studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relative to chronic hunger, seasonal hunger in rural and urban areas of Africa is poorly understood. This paper examines the extent and potential correlates of seasonal hunger in Malawi using panel data from 2011-2013. We find that both urban and rural households report seasonal hunger in the pre-harvest months. Certain strategies to smooth consumption, including crop storage and livestock ownership, are associated with fewer months of hunger. In addition, we find that Malawian households that experience seasonal hunger harvest their crops earlier than average -- a short-term coping mechanism that can reduce the crop' s yield and nutritional value, possibly perpetuating hunger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has shown that men and women, on average, have different risk attitudes and may therefore see different value propositions in response to new opportunities.We use data from smallholder farm households in Mali to test whether risk perceptions differ by gender and across domains. We model this potential association across six risks (work injury, extreme weather, community relationships, debt, lack of buyers, and conflict) while controlling for demographic and attitudinal characteristics. Factor analysis highlights extreme weather and conflict as eliciting the most distinct patterns of participant response. Regression analysis for Mali as a whole reveals an association between gender and risk perception, with women expressing more concern except in the extreme weather domain; however, the association with gender is largely absent when models control for geographic region. We also find lower risk perception associated with an individualistic and/or fatalistic worldview, a risk-tolerant outlook, and optimism about the future, while education, better health, a social orientation, self-efficacy, and access to information are generally associated with more frequent worry- with some inconsistency. Income, wealth, and time poverty exhibit complex associations with perception of risk. Understanding whether and how men's and women's risk preferences differ, and identifying other dominant predictors such as geographic region and worldview, could help development organizations to shape risk mitigation interventions to increase the likelihood of adoption, and to avoid inadvertently making certain subpopulations worse off by increasing the potential for negative outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aid donors are interested in understanding whether allocating aid via bilateral or multilateral channels might be more effective for achieving development goals. We review 45 papers that empirically test the associations between bilateral and multilateral aid flows and various development outcomes including gross domestic product growth, governance indicators, human development indicators and levels of nonaid investment flows. Findings suggest that differences between countries and regions, time periods, aid objectives, and individual donor organizations all may influence the effectiveness of aid delivered bilaterally and multilaterally. We find, however, no consistent evidence that either bilateral or multilateral aid is more effective overall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers' perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate-related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate-related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate-related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assuming that individual discount rates are constant over time has important implications for policies and programs that involve intertemporal decision making. Using original data from Vietnam and Russia, we find evidence that discount rates do change over time for many individuals, implying that preferences for savings and credit might not be intertemporally consistent. We find that commonly held beliefs about gender and age influences do not hold once having children and location are controlled for. Within countries, however, residency does matter. Rural Vietnamese populations have higher discount rates, and living in a Russian trading town is associated with significantly higher discount rates and present bias than living in a government town. We argue that these behaviors are particularly likely to influence resource allocation in developing economies because there are fewer formal institutions and competitive markets to temper their effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a conceptual scheme for understanding the impact of microcredit, small loans to poor borrowers, on common pool resources. Relationship of microcredit to common pool resources; Evidence on microcredit and environmental impacts; Responses of member-based financial organizations to impact of credit on environmental resources.

Presents a test on a hypothesis of access rights across indigenous peoples. Assertion of the hypothesis; Observations on 40 early American groups; What the cross-sectional study reveals.

Donors and governments increasingly seek to deliver development projects through community-based organizations such as self-help groups (SHGs), but little is known about the effectiveness of such arrangements. This article briefly summarizes hypotheses regarding the effectiveness of interventions using SHGs and presents the results of an evidence review on the impacts of interventions delivered through SHGs on health, finance, agriculture and empowerment outcomes in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Though the impacts of SHG-based interventions are generally positive, the evidence base is limited and does not generally test whether alternative delivery mechanisms might be more effective.

Previous research has shown that men and women, on average, have different risk attitudes and may therefore see different value propositions in response to new opportunities. We use data from smallholder farm households in Mali to test whether risk perceptions differ by gender and across domains. We model this potential association across six risks (work injury, extreme weather, community relationships, debt, lack of buyers, and conflict) while controlling for demographic and attitudinal characteristics. Factor analysis highlights extreme weather and conflict as eliciting the most distinct patterns of participant response. Regression analysis for Mali as a whole reveals an association between gender and risk perception, with women expressing more concern except in the extreme weather domain; however, the association with gender is largely absent when models control for geographic region. We also find lower risk perception associated with an individualistic and/or fatalistic worldview, a risk-tolerant outlook, and optimism about the future, while education, better health, a social orientation, self-efficacy, and access to information are generally associated with more frequent worry-with some inconsistency. Income, wealth, and time poverty exhibit complex associations with perception of risk. Understanding whether and how men's and women's risk preferences differ, and identifying other dominant predictors such as geographic region and worldview, could help development organizations to shape risk mitigation interventions to increase the likelihood of adoption, and to avoid inadvertently making certain subpopulations worse off by increasing the potential for negative outcomes., (© 2018 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.)

Relative to chronic hunger, seasonal hunger in rural and urban areas of Africa is poorly understood. This paper examines the extent and potential correlates of seasonal hunger in Malawi using panel data from 2011-2013. We find that both urban and rural households report seasonal hunger in the pre-harvest months. Certain strategies to smooth consumption, including crop storage and livestock ownership, are associated with fewer months of hunger. In addition, we find that Malawian households that experience seasonal hunger harvest their crops earlier than average - a short-term coping mechanism that can reduce the crop's yield and nutritional value, possibly perpetuating hunger.

Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers' perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate-related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate-related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate-related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response., (© 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.)